Fake-Fat Sunny

The key reason I am in this area is that my wife means more to me than anything and family seems to mean more to my wife than anything and her Dad and both her brothers are here. Quite frankly as long as I and my family (and also my friends to a signficant extent) can keep the wolf away from the door wherever we are, the tax rates and other factors are trivia. I hope you have enough family and friwnds to keep you happy wherever you are. However, I think anyine who leaves a situation of love (which my family and friends thankfully procide for us) then I think one is a fool to leave this for lower taxes, a job or some other trivia. Sometimes one has to leave family and friends because of a job or demographic factors. Its too bad but it happens. Fir example, we moved from WNY for 7 months or so in St. Louis when my wife needed medical treatment whose highest survival rate was provided by Barnes Hospital in St. Louis. Even she decided to leave her friends and family behind and we moved out there. Fortunately, it worked out as I think that Barnes and their work saved her life. Even better for us, he constant follow-up care is provided by a doc here in Buffallo by a woman who its hard to imagine anyone better for my wife. She was attracted here by a financial offer but stayed here because she found a fellow doc at ECMC who she has started a family with and even though I would guess she could move more easily than most to a hospital wherever she wanted she also seems to have decided to chose her family and friends over low taxes or financial opportunity. Make no mistake, Buffalo and Erie County are melting down financially. Its not a good thing but in general I do not think this a bad thing completely at all. What is happening here is that both the Democrats (as embodied sort of in Massiello, Mayor of Buffalo) and the GOP (as embodied in Joel Giambra and the Repubs that ran the County legislature while the coffers were emptied under their watch) have really screwed the pooch on this one. There really is a perfect storm of unprecedented opportunity here to see residents and local folks take control of running Erie County and Buffalo away frin the Democratic Party (who in the person of Butch Holt, Al DeBenedett, Massiello, Griffin, etc) and the GOP (who in the person of Joel Giambra, Nancy Naples, Mike Ratzenhoffer, etc.) has totally revealed that they are incapable of running things even remotely well. The upcoming Mayoral election in November and the County Exec race ibn two years or so (or less because I doubt Giambra lasts that long) will provide an unprecedented opportunity to do something different than the idiots who mismanaged things/ All of this politics of course pales in inportance to important things like family and friend but is clear that something different than the last 8-12 years will happen, it is justa difficult question of how that will be increased leadership by the residents and not-for-profit institutions like religious groups or will it be the same powers that be with a new face that will be given additional responsiblity.

This a great thread and really touches upon the many key issues for us fans doing whatwe do and evaluating the GM. I think folks often seem to post as though they forget that many things are necessary to be seen as a good GM (how the fans, how the rest of the NFL and of course how the owner make this rating can all be legitimately different and they are all important), but really nothing is sufficient in and of itself to get rated as a good GM by all these stakeholders. As a fan my own rating for how the GM is doing is pretty intensely linked to W/L. His work with the business end is critical because even though I tend toward the future is now view of the world, I am aware of and do care about the future (I care a lot about as it involves my two nieces, my nephew, and my god-daughter, but I am quite willing to mortgage the future for current achievement when if come to mere, but important, entertainment like the Bills). Thus TD's work with business end of the Bills is important and impressive, but W/L is really the bottom-line for me. Thus, I think that the rational approach overall is to judge TD pretty harshly and as a failure when it comes to W/L and the bottomline fact we have not even lucked into the playoffs during his tenure. The other issues creep into my evaluation of TD when I consider the question what should we do about the fact that the W/L under him has been crap. It is here that the two factors of "what have you done for me lately" and what are the prospects for the future come into play. TD's W/L record as GM is crap but it does not lead to me automically advocating his ouster because his biggest mistake in my mind was choosing GW as HC and the latest in that regard of going with MM is a definite improvement looking at W/L and most commentary. In addition, while the youth of JP creates some uncertaintiees, the prospects for the future are pretty good if JP should happen to be the real deal or more likely are pretty good if the Bills are smart enough to do what Pitts did with RoboQB last year which is to actually depend upon other players (the Bus, an opportunistic D) to win games (even though in the modern marketing world RoboQB got too much credit for the Ws which he was an important part of but did not cause alone). If the team repeats the D performance (likely) and the ST performance (uncertain as a lot is determined by how the funny-shaped ball bounces), and emphasizes teaching JP to not make mistakes I think we will do well. Overall, though I join others in this thread in finding So-Cal's posts a bit too addicted to an over-focus on his view of Ts work (he clearly loves the Bills so I think his views would be even more palatable if they were couched in that adoration rather than in finding fault with TD because he has failed to date) I was quite impressed with his list of factors to judge a GM by. Thus, I will use that list though i think I have somewhat of a different cut on the judfments and most importantly which are the prime jufgments for a fan (for pundits and for Ralph because I think all three can have legitimately different views). +++ Attendance (I give him 3 stars rather than 2 here (3 is my highest grade) because I don't think it is possible to do better than the sellout and near sellout years we have had and the good potential for this year all the tickets being sold. I think that his work shows great work on the fundamentals which can make this performance sustainable as the Business Backs the Bills effort seems to be a working piece under his leadership, the move of the pre-season camp to Rochester is an important part of the regional marketing strategy and increased butts in the seat in pre-season (playing a pre-season game in Rochester will make this even better and eventually the Bills may make the move to capture more of the Southern Ontario market and even play agame in Toronto but this is down the pike. I do not see how one can do better with the realities of this market and the Bills maturing beyond a fairly primitive marketing state in the 90s (it was not long ago tha will call tickets were divided into shoeboxes and this year we are even making a deeper move to digital technology where tickets will not be ripped, they will be scanned). ++ Cap Hell I give him at least 2 stars here instead of the 1 So-Cal gives him and the only thing which stops me from giving him 3 stars are some forgiveable errors (which were errors nonetheless like giving a significant advance to Jason Glidon which cost us cap room for no product and also far less forgiveable sin of negotiating cap hitting restructurings with JH and HJ in 2001 and then cutting them and then getting burned as Raion Hill was incorrectly assessed as being able to replace HJ and Cowart got hurt (this could no be predicted) but having cut an MLB we ened up having to start Spoon (who was later cut as not being good enough). However, the strange thing to me is that many posters seem unwilling to give TD much credit for getting us out of cap hell a year or two earlier than expected because they say that TD simply did some things he was forced to do rather than make good decisions. Yes he did make some errors as described above, but the consistent mismanagement of the cap which see from NFL teams like AZ and CIN shows that it is not a simple thing to do, and the cap problems and long term issues of good teams like SF shows that managing the cap can be done wrong and it is not an easy thing to do. Butler made some future is now choices which I agree with in that he extended the contracts of good players to hang onto them at the cost of our cap future when the team was close to its goal in the late 90s. However, he again showed that cap management can be done poorly by making a series of mistakes in addition to his reasonable moves like letting his QB fears cause him to mismanage the cap allocations given to RJ and Flutie. Overspending on one of them was easily forgiveable, but overspending on both at the same time resulted in us having to cut some ST players who would have stayed in their lanes and this cost us a playoff game. TD on the other hand has managed the cap well for us and deserves a lot of credit for doing this. +++ Marketing I gove this same grade as the attendance issue which i think is an accurate indiator of good marketing and in essence is the same thing. +++ Generating interest Same thing in terms of grading as marketing and attendance. One can actually give separate grades for these three as they can be parsed into their parts of the ultrimate goal, but i think it is simpler to lump them together unless there is a partioular aspect someone wants to argue can be better seen by the parsing. ++ Rebuilding I think this one might be better discussed in dividing this into rebuilding the team (he gets 1 star due to the W/L record) and rebuilding the franchise where he had to move the franchise into the second-half of the twentieth centrury on the way to move into the 21st centrury (he gets at least 2 stars and maybe three for his business efforts). + Coaches In the what have you done for me lately world I live in, his good moves with MM. Which led fairly directly to getting TC (a TD choice over Killdrive which he stupidly let GW have his way on), hanging onto Gray and Krumrie from te former coaching regime. and getting JMac (the franchise and geography attracted him rather than him being drawn to MM so TD shares the credit with MM here outweigh the bad move of hiring GW. I would give TD a double minus for hiring GW who simply was set up to be a great Administrative Assistant to TD with his lists and contacts than to be an HC (his failins were he had no O chops to match his great D resume and he did not have the security to hire O people older, more experienced or better than him to make up for this failing. I judge TD's failing in hiring GW as understandable as the last HC he hired, Cowher, had run him out of Pitts but though understandable it was non condonable because he passed on two other HC candidates (Fox and Lewis) who seem to have done an adequate to very good job with Carolina and CIN. Nevertheless, though I do not think TD has gotten over his passive/aggressive behavior which led him to allow GW to fail as long as GW was directly to blame. I think he has achieved a fuller by-in and and exertion of control over the on-filed performance by hiring a competent HC whom he knows and can work with (he thought he had this with Cowher and did not so he hired GW who was not part of his legacy but he allowed GW to make his own bed so he was the judge rather than the judged on GW's result. I'd give him at least 2 minuses for the GW episode, but this gets swept aside for me by the 1 star (2 if we had made the playoffs) he gets for his current hire of MM. ++ Scouting I think that TD gets a lot of credit here because subjectively the acquisition of a scouting talent like Modrak and holding onto him despite him being an obvious candidate to GM elsewhere is TD sciuting kudo. The nuts and bolts of the scouts is hard to assess beyond the production of the players on the field (the W/L is bad, but the 04 results were good if inadequate, and the prspects are good). Overall, the Bills seemed to have made good scouting assessments on a number of UDFAa and high priced FAs (Spikes, Fletcher, Baker, Adams) which have been good and really have acquired outside of Bledsoe few players who are viewed as stinking up the joint despite our investment. I think one has to give the scouts an the docs great credit for the McGahee pick which surprised everyone and TD clearly is making acquisitions (WM when he had Henry, picking WM when we had a DE need because he figured Kelsay was good enough and would still be there, the initially it work but so far failed pick surprising pick of Reed which allowed us to let Peerless go) shows some good scouting within a plan to try some outside of the box things. Horrible scouting on the placekicking front is his major failing in my mind. + The Draft I disagree with those who judge TD to be a bad drafter becaise O think the draft is important but really is secondary feature in building a good team behind dealing with FAs and managing the salary cap in the modern NFL TD has a little bit better than a 50/50 record at finding draft gold, but 50/50 is pretty good even with 1st round choices in the draft. If there is a legit complaint about TDs work is that the finding of a late drafted player like McGee who becomes a contributor to this team is a bit few and far between that a better GM should produce. However, even the late round draftees seem to be making a good contribution on ST even though they are not making the Pro Bowl and as long as the occaisional draft pick like McGee and Fas like Spikes and Adams do make it one star here is fine with me. ++ Trades Even more impressive to me than the PP move (which is the #1 trade as the something we got for nothing and the something is is WM) is TDs work on the marginal side making trades like a 7th for a starting TE in Campbell or at least getting some value for Olandis Gary we signed and realized we would cut. TD again seems to be headed toward some trade wizardry as moving TH for some value seems to be iminent. -- Record My sense is that not even lucking into the playoffs during his tenure gives TD a double minus in my book. This item is the most improtant item for me as a fan but of course does not invalidate the other good work he has done or RWS making a totally different assessment than me because he owns the business and I do not. It seems totally reasonable to me to be totally disappointed and even frustrated with TDs W/L as a fan and to advocate that he stay because things appear in positive shape for the future with W/L and if I step back and look at the health of the franchise and the business which is of no immediate concern to me it is pretty good.

Buffalo and WNY remains the land of no illusions. Thus neither believe those who describe it as an undiscovered place of joy, nor those who describe it as worthless with nothing but high taxes to offer (I welcome these whiners to not let the door hit them on the way out because quite frankly life is better off without the whiners). This being said, it is not an easy thing to construct the right deal for you individually which makes this a worthwhile place to come back to. However, rest assured that he can be done. For me the deal that works is due to modern communications which allows me to work with clients nationally so I can get a nationally based salary while living here and enjoying the cheaper than the go-go communities housing prices (despite the tax rate, I find the WNY lifestyle more than competive finacially with housing and other costs in other cities like DC). Make your own deal and make your assessment and if it works for you we welcome you.

Thanks for taking the time to provide some interesting quotes from folks who care deeply about and are on top of the Vikes situation. Though my guess is that the Vikes fans are as biased about their team as we are about the Bills (so everything is to be taken with a grain to a boulder of salt) it is really helpful to get some other views of performance rather than the usual fact-free opinions we spout on TSW. My sense is that McKinnie and JMac are on essentially the same career track. Well regarded in college followed by a pro career which did not equal their college careers and both giving some hope of having turned around their pro production. Overall, my sense is that the McKinnie meltdown was longer term than the MW meltdown (his first year loss, his second year a disappointment, and his 3rd year a bad start with improved performance as he went on while MW had a promising 1st year, a disappointing 2nd year, and got off to a horrendous start last year with folks agreeing at least that he improved a lot from OTA to the end of he regular season even if they disagree about their assessment of his level of regular season improvement). Further as far as a static assessment of where MW is right now, he red-chip + judgment of this rating strikes me as pretty reasonable. He is not a blue-chip performer today, but he can be. He has had real problems and deficits in his play over the years, but they have never been a consistent inability to deal with outside or edge rushers or other items linked to his massive size limiting his agility, instead they have been mental issues linked with his inabiility to co-ordinate well with RG Pacillo leadin him to have issues with stunts in his 2nd year. I'd be a lot more worried about whether he has some fundamental inherent problem but: 1. His three years of play have seen an RB pick up impressive rushing numbers with him at RT as TH and WM have gained over a 1000 yards behind his OL and at a good rate per game. If MW was ineffective individually opposing Ds would recognize this and shift toward the left side and our running attack would also show that bias. I saw no signs of that. 2. His three years also have seen pass game productivity which seems more closely linked to overal O performance rather than some specific issue related to him. His first year saw good O pass performance with him at RT which became less consistent as the season wore on but Killdrives inability to vary the scheme and BB providing a roadmap for undressing Bledsoe seems to be far more likely factors than anything linked to poor performance by MW. The pass pro melted down his second year, but the MW issues (and there were issues) seemed to be defined by poor co-ordination between him and Pacillo (their body language over a sacked Bledsoe too often appeared to say "I thought you had him") and mental adjustment issues rather than him physically being beaten by outside often or some other sign of agility issues. The pass pro he was part of last year was only productive statistically at the #26 level cited but the number of sacks dropped tremendously (again mostly due to better and more diverse successful play calling in my view) and like it or not MW was part of this. 3. In terms of third party validation, it is always tricky because it is subjective rather than objective, However, him being rewarded a gameball for his play midseason (though I suspect it was recignition as much for his diligence in getting back into playing shape after his OTA meltdown which actually is good news if that is the reason for the award) and observers and pundits seem uniformly impressed with his play and him pancaking an opponent was noted a few timez. I think it is impossible to argue that his play did not improve a lot from his meltdown in OTA and it seems logially explainable that his performance is much improved under JMac rather than Ruel and with Villarial rather than Pacillo next to him. I think his improvement is real and may well be a harbinger of his play improving enough that he can comfortably switch sides to LT next year. I agree with you that LT and RT are different positions and that LT is more difficult because: 1. You have QB blindside responsiblity. 2. One has to play in space along more because the TE is not covering your outside. I think point one is where MWs previous experience comes in as he has done the blindside before. Point 2 is the question and the issue where agility questions come in. However. the default to me is that he has not shown signs of having edge rusher issues (everyone gets beat once in awhile aroun the edge as Jonathan Ogden showed with Schobel last year so it is only an issue for me if there is a consistent problem) when our TE releases for a pass and he is left alone on the right side or when we suffered huge TE issues last year with injuries to Campbell and Euhus and isolating MW was not a difficult thing for a D to do. If (and this remains an IF) MW can make it through this year learning from JMac's experience and being able to focus on improving his play with Villarial's evaluation and help rather than worrying about how to carry Pacillo and getting limited help from Sullivan, I think he should be able to make the switch. The other issue which will help MW when he makes the shift (as I think he will do next year at the latest) is tha JP is a huge upgrade in mobility over Bledsoe. In fact, I am pretty confident that MW as a 4th or 5th year pro will have enough experience when he does get beat in space by a Jason Taylor to know when he has been taken and simply take the penalty by tackling the speed rushing LDE or at least yelling oh sh*t LOOKOUT to a JP who can run for his life rather than have Bledsoe take a big hit from his blindside while patting the ball. Making the flip to LT will be a challenge but I think if MW has another year of progress like last year, the flip will be easily doable.

If the deal went down this way i would be torn between wanting TH to do well to hit the targets which got us the the 2nd and wanting him to blow so the hated Jags (who are roughly the Bills level of "almost" achievement) do poorly. Ultimately I will probably root for TH to do well some weeks (against other East Division rivals but to merely start and/or pick-up yards in a losing cause for other games. I guess the real acid test will be whether those who have badmouthing TH on TSW will switch to rooting for him to pick up yards cause it helps the Bills.

Sweet. I hope this turns out to be true and hats off to TD if the final input is a 3rd and conditional 2nd.

The big difference between McKinniw and MW is that based on the way MW responded to the threats (JMac threatened he would be moved to guard) and encouragement (he got a gameball for his plsy mid last season) of the Bills MW improved bigtime from his meltdown last preseason and is reported to have reported to this years OTA at a lighter weight than last season and reports of him being a workput warrior this year on his own. McKinnie on the other hand has a rep as a malingerer and showing a bad attitude after his holdout as a rookie. He finally began to show on the field some better play at the end of last year, but this is the only good sign I have heard unless you know something I don't. MW mat nit ever meet the goals originally thought for him but there is objective evidence he is going to try and has reversed his worse time. There is some hope for McKinnie also but not objective evidence to make this assumption anything but a hope.

I think it make Rosenhaus impressive in that he seems to be quite effective in representing the interests of his clients. It amazes me that folks seem to want to let the player off the hook and blame Rosenhaus for holdouts and renegotiations when it is the player who is the employer calling the shots. Rosenhaus strikes me as merely a tool that players choose to use because he has demonstrated with is tireless work and even lying for WM that he does a good job at doing what the client wants him to do. If WM holds out it is not on Rosenhaus from my perspective it is on WM and it is his answer to TD and the Bills taking a risk on him.

Its just great to see you abandoning an earlier position you stated at least a couple of times that the Bills should cut TH because you assess him as stinking pretty completely and assess 31 other GMs as having little or no interest in him. True he had significant fumble issuesin 2002, but the good news for the Bills was that he improved signficantly in this regard and the game result from any fumbles in 2003 and though the facts are what the facts were, the more recent facts make this a relative non-issue in terms of a team weighing whether to trade for him (by relative non-issue I mean that past reality good or bad is a real factor it just is not a lead factor). In fact, to a minor very small extent this is a factor there is a small plus for him regarding this that despite his "interesting" intellectual deficits he proved trainable in solving this problem. I assume it is true he also missed a team flight (I don't remember this episode at all it was so minor (if he missed a game it would be major or if in disciplining him the HC saw fit to bench him for a quarter or more then it would be major. My sense to the extent this is a trade factor it would have to be in conjunction with a team feeling like this example in conjunction with other events add up into something real. Otherwise rather than impacting his trade value I suspect that most teams would deal with this by buying him a watch. The major missed block I remember TH failing to do was when he failed to pick up a blitz as a rookie and even Flutie got sacked. Like most rookies he struggled learning blitz pick-up but like many rookies he did and this was not mentioned as a major TH problem in 2002 or 2003 and re-emerged as a complaint when folks were looking for reasons to find fault in TH's game. I've never seen blitz pick-up as a strength for Henry (as it was for example for Thurman or Centers) but it is not an issue with him eitheras best as I can tell. It seems particularly odd for me to focus on this issue as sme key difference in quality between WM and TH when the bigger real difference between the two is that TH's outside speed and stiff arm does not compare to WM's and like most 1st year players there was not much greatness to be seen in WM blitz pick-up work either. The focus on missed blocks by TH simply strikes me as bizarre. The issue of TH failing to hit some obvious holes because he fell strikes me as really happening a couple of times, but not strike me as some trend in his game. For those couple of times their are also myriad examples of Henry failing to go down on the first hit and him keeping his legs moving and showing good balance as part of his picking up 1300+ yds teo years in a row (unless you want to insist the Bills blocking was so good in 02 and 03 Th was usually untouched by tacklers behind the line or until he went downfield. The issue that he sulked sriles me as more in the eye of the beholder than any demonstration on his part. He sat and did not cheerlead last year and no one would mistake him for Darryl Talley. However, it is funny how some folks tried to translate this into him being a cancer when actually he did all I wanted last year once WM asserted himself by shutting up and not being a distraction. As far as packing his bags, yep he did but as long as he will move them to a new town we trade him to that is fine with me. Again the crusade against Henry really seems to consist of you and other folks diregarding the good things he has done while finding fault with folks disregarding his record with the Bills. I do not disregard either and will be happy to see him taded but recognize that he has trade value because of his play and production. I compliment TD for sticking to his guns on this one and things look good short of the deal actually getting done because he recognizes thar TH is not all pluses and also not all minuses.

I do see where he gets this from as Moulds was 10th in receptions, 21st in yards and off the charts beyond #30 in TDs last year if you care about the #s. However, his comments say more about the lack of reality associated with fantasy football than about the reality of a game that is a fantasy in itself anyway (is a fantasy about a fantasy like a double negative- you'd by this if you are into "reality" TV). I once long ago owned a fantasy football team (They were named The FOG which stood for Friends of God. We were coached by the born again Tom Landry I chose Webster Slaughter as my WR and in our fantasy press release Tom complimented him on having such a biblical name). I once pluncked down with a budy to watch a late 89s Monday night game against the Niners and Skins which would decide a fantasy league match-up I had that week. I had Jerry Rice on my team which was a nice place to be. Unfortunately my opponent has Joe Montana. My roomate listened with amusement while I finally decided that since Rice got a point for every 10 yard gained and Montana only got a point for every 20 yards gained in a throw, and also that Dice got 6 points for a TD catch but Montana only got 3 points that I actually would win if Montana had a big night with Rice but not with other receivers. That is what I rooted for. In fact this meant I initially rooted for the Skins as if the 9ers fail behind Montana would need to go to his deep threat to make up the gap. My roomie was from DC so though he could not follow my fantasy silliness he tolrated it as I was rooting for the good gus. However, as the game progressed, I note that when Montana faded back and looked left it meant he was likely to throw to Rice on the right side. I began rooting for the 9ers when Montana faded back but only if he looked left. My roomate began to get a bit frustrated with my herky-jerky changing rooting. Suddenly Rice went out with an unknown injury. At that point I began to root for the 9ers (by that point I was ahead due to a Rice TD and his yardage) and particularly for the 9ers ST and D because i figured if the 9ers got a big lead they would go to the run to burn some clock or at worst short safe passes which would not give Montana a lot of points. However, Rice was only nicked and I then began rooting for the 9ers again. it was at that point I noticed my buddy had not come back from a bathroom trip and was long gone to enjoy watching football without the distraction of me enjoying fantasy football. the two games are really different things.

This also strikes me as a pretty accurate assessment of the players chosen. I do have some differences though with your interpretation of the assessment or of initial assessment of MW. First, I would choose your option that MW has simply not player well enough to shift him to LT. However, I think it is still too early to declare the possibility of moving him to be over. While I agress that playing the right side and playing the left side are not interchangeable it certainly can and has been done. Two issues are that the left side involves more responsibility as you are guarding the QB blindside, but there I have confidence in MW doing this because he did this well in college for a lefthander as folks point out. The second issue is the question as he will need to switch his technique as opposing rusher will now be coming over his other shoulder and if habitually he is used to applying his steength and reading and making movesfor people coming the other way this can make a marginal difference which can be significant. Assessing whether he can make that shift needs to take into acoount his performance as a player: Year 1: Good start and good protection as he immediately earned a starting role and the OL was productive as his RBs and his QB all had productive years behind his and other blockers work. i do not remember him getting beaten a lot (as often happens with rookies and even players like Schobel who is at best is very solid can beat a better player from time to time as he did with the top-notch Ogden last year). I think that he did well enough as he had things to learn about what it is like to simply play above college level and having Vinky be his position coach and having Sullivan as the RG gave him tachers who could teach him the basics though neither could teach him the fine points. Second Year- MW began to hit the wall in teaching as the not ready for primetime Ruel took over for Vinky and his one year of experience as an OL position coach with the Lions allowed him to offer little in advanced teaching to MW. Even worse, though MW would have really profited from having at least an equal to work with at RG, he was working with Pacillo as his partner who needed an experienced vet at RT next to him even more than MW could have used having a more experienced player at RG It actually speaks highly of TH's work that the team produced as much as it did in terms of running yardage and it was not surprising at all that too often the less than mobile Bledsoe got sacked with MW and Pacillo standing over his prone form with obvious "I though you had him" body language regarding the sacker who was now dancing with joy. Third year- MW really melted down as he reacted unprofessionally to the death of his Grammy who raised him (understandable but not condoneable as a fan). However, the great sign was that we saw MW show every sign of tremendous improvement now that he had an adult working with him (JMac) and an experienced player (Villarial) next to him. He dealt with the tough love which JMac publicly demonstrated (the threat to move him to guard which seemed to be taken seriously by MW who got buay cutting weight an learning the game and ICE who falsely claimed that G was the obvious place for MW because of his size though MW had shown no signs in his two years of a lack of agility that saw him victimized by outside or edge rushers due to his size) by training so hard to cut weight he hurt his foot. However, he even played and trained through this setback and produced the achievements of: 1. Being rewarded with a gameball midway through the season for an outstanding blocking effort- this reward is somewhat subjective testimony to his quality of play but is most likely real testimony to his diligence in turning things around. The team in essence accepted his apology for letting them, the fans and himself down with his pre-season meltdown. 2, Outside pundits and fans remarked on his work and their observation of his blocking work- again this is more subjective than objective as pundits and fans can often be wrong, but given his troubles this is the subjective juedgment you want to have happen. 3. A more objective sign was that WM produced a bunch of yards behind MW and the OL and that Bledsoe's sack numbers were cut in half. It is true that a big part of this was changes in the offensive approach as the greater use of Bledsoe as a runner as he was not going to break a QB draw but blitzers needed to stay back and not commit totally to the blitz due to this possibility, the increased use of flea-flickers and trick plays which also created a moment of blitzer hesitation and the increased outside running threat of WM over TH all contributed along with better blocking by MW and the OL to the objective indicator of reduced sacks. The bottomline is that MW had the year in his 3rd year he should have had in his second if GW had been striong enough to hire and then replace his OL coach with a competent person. This year will be an interesting one for MW. I think if things had gone according to plan and MW had produced like last year in his lost year of 2003, then the Bills comfortably could have flipped him to LT this year to take over for JJ who got far more than the Bills should have paid for him from SF. Instead, not only did MW lose a year of development, but actually took a step backward because of the unexpected meltdown and the uncertainty created by him needing to flip sides. It will be a jump but it could well happen that 2005 will see MW become the player we wanted him to be and gain reknown for pancaking a few opponents. If so he can comfortably be experimented with and challenged to flip sides next year and we will need to make the cheaper easier buy or move of finding an RT. Overall, there is hope and though the TD plan did not work perfectly in terms of making the segue from JJ to MW, I think based on this assessment he deserves kudos for making the right choice between MW and McKinnie and also of Levi Jones who are ranked by these outside observers as lesser talents than MW. McKinnie did lose a half or full season of development compared to MW, but this loss was his own doing due to his holdout and it seems to be unreasonable to predict greatness for him while he has some clear attitude negatives while MW has demonstrated a positive attitude now with reports he has trimmed down and worked out this off-season. TD might be reasonably questioned for not trading down because even if they are virtually guranteed blue chip talents (Peyton Manning who has never brought his team to an SB an an example of a great player who simply has never achieved the ultimate goal with is team and now commands so much money and cap room I will not be surprised if Indy never does achieve its goal of winning with him despite his great play) there is a clear question whether it is beneficial to have a draft pick so high he is slotted to get a team-breaking salary. the cap hit of $9+ million MW had (or even the "cheaper" $7.8 he now will get is far more money than his play deserves. However, the Bills had so undermanned the OL in the Butler era the pick of MW does make sense. Overall kudos to MW (finally) and kudos to TD (mostly for getting smarter and replacing the GW/Sheppard/Killdrive/Vinky/Ruel mistake with MM/TC/JMac combo) and I am pretty hopeful regarding our LT-OL future. However, getting to what I think is a hopeful future is going to be a tough slog this year as Gandy/Teague/Peters are going to have to be our answer at LT. I think Gandy is doable but doubtful. I have some security that Teague would be adequate at LT but the repercussions of this move as Tucker (potential injury) or Preston (rookie) would then need to step up at Cand cannot be counted upon so I hope we do not have to make this move and also despite the hype around Peters athleticism, I really do not see entrusting protection of JPs blindside to an an unproven player at LT no matter how athletic they are (not to mention why you want to eliminate him as a receiving threat by taking the ball out his hand at LT makes little sense to me if you judge him to be such a superior athlete. At any rate, sorry for the lack of cliffnotes but I am happy to use this opportunity to think outloud.

I remember Moulds scoring one long TD late last year but I can't remember whether the long yardage was mostly RAC or through the air. However, I do remember Bledsoe hitting Evans long a few times late in the season so I son't think the facts describe a QB who lost the long touch. As a matter of fact some of the folks who react against Bledsoe in some reactionary addiction to believing his play was critical for the Bills (some focused unwarranted emphasis on him because they falsely thought he was great and others cause they falsely thought he sucked completely) worried on the several flea flickers which featured a flip back to Bledsoe after a hand-off worried that he would miss the wide open Evans who sprung free when the corners bit on the run (he never did and hit Evans deep each time) actually reacted as though Bledsoe was doing an easy thing to hit a wide open Evans when actually Bledsoe did a great job hitting him. This play is difficult because: A. Throwing the long ball even when you are not under sack pressure is not an easy thing to do particularly in the Ralph winds and kudos to Bledsoe for the result being a long gain and usually a TD for Evans. B. Not only did he have to hit Evans but also hit in full stride because he was on the run and even if the CB bit, he usually realized his error as the ball was flipped or because the play did not feel like a run. C. Most difficult is that Bledsoe has to field a lateral from the young WM (sometimes they were good but there also were a few adventures in his flips) AND keep track of Evans going downfield so he could handle the lateral and make the throw. I was quite impressed withe the TC/MM calls of this play and quite impressed with how Bledsoe handled these flea-flickers (and the faked QB sneak which saw him lateral to WM who scampered 40+ yards for the TD. I think part of the reason Bledsoe was so shocked at his cut was that actually 2004 saw a huge improvement in his play over his horrendous season in 2003. Nevertheless, I think TD and the braintrust were correct to cut Bledsoe and go with JP, not because Bledsoe sucked and has nothing left, but because they should have cut him after the 2003 season because even with the talents Bledsoe has left (they are considerable but limited) it is quite unlikely he will deliver enough for the Bills to win it all. I would rather have the QB play a non-lead role in us winning because he is a youngster and no rationally expects a youngster to take control because he does not have the skills of a vet (yet) than have a QB play a non-lead role because he is not a skilled enough player to do so (Bledsoe). I think that folks are likely making a mistake to assume Bledsoe will go down in flames with the 'Boys: 1. Those who suspect that he will do well for a few games are probably right because we have all seen how effective Bledsoe can be until opponents get some tape on his O. 2. In addition, it would not surprise me to see Bledsoe do well enough longer than a few games because I think Parcells is a better HC than Mularkey. I suspect the Parcells force of will which squeezed an SB berth out of Bledsoe with the Pats will still be there and TC had to take away Bledsoe's ability to audible to get him to simplify the offense and not be so pass-happy I think Parcells will simply be able to tell Bledsoe to stop and not audible unless he is really sure and this will give Dallas a more flexible playbook than the one the Bills had to jam down Bledsooe's throat to get him not take dumb risks. 3. I think the cut by the Bills may end up being a good thing for Bledsoe because it sent him a clear message that he needs to rein it in because he cannot do the things he tries to do (he never could really) and he needs to rely on his teammates to carry the team because he does not have the skills to do it all. I think the Parcells and Bledsoe will be helped alot by TC and MM doing some very good things using Bledsoe that Kevin Killdrive refused to do in 2003 as he pigheadedly stuck with what worked in 2002. 1. Bledsoe has to run the QB draw a few times even if he will never be enough of a runner to break the draw for a big gain. If the LBs and safeties are not hesitating for a minute to make sure that Bledsoe is not coming up the middle for positive yardage they will abandon their spots and commit totally to the outside or a gap blitz. TC and MM demonstrated this last year. 2. Bledsoe does have good ball-handling skills (he really helped Teagie a lot in 2002 as some of his shotgun snaps were real adventures that Bledsoe showed good hands in snaring) and he is a vet and an OC should feel comfortable going with the pitch-back flea-flicker as he hit Evans several times with and faked the sneak and lateraled to WM. Even though the Boys OL will be spotty this simply empasizes the importance of using the sneak and the flicker with Bledsoe. 3. Bledsoe's problem with the Bills struck me as he often tried to do things he could not do and his teammates looked to him to win if they screwed up. If because the cut makes him recognize his limitations (and Parcells keeps reminding him) then you may see a more efficient Bledsoe with Dallas than he was wih the Bills because he makes fewer mistakes as he stops trying to do things he does not have the talent to do, Ita going to be interesting to watch how the Boys do using Bledsoe and his arm,

Because trade value is determined by the market you are trading in and not the market when the player was selected. Add to that a player is traded or selected based on an estimation of what he can or can't do and that estimation changes from person to person and in reality as the college game is not the pro game and as players get mileage, it is perfectly reasonable that a player commands more or less today than was spent to acquire him earlier. I see little logic in people feeling that there is some static immutable value a player has which can be expressed in the round of a particular draft pick. Rven with the simple discounting due to time which compares one year's draft pick to another year's pick level, A 5th roung pick in one year at one position may have no relationship in terms of value to a 5th round pick in another year, or a 5th round pick at a different position in the same year.

I would because it means that very soon I would be starting.

Parcells has shown that he is a smart enough HC to know that he and generall most HCs suceed with players not by leaving a foot imprint on their butt and trying to make them fear your physical wrath, but by getting them to respect and actually love you are make them fear disappointing you. The great thing about Parcells and part and parcel of his success from what I've heard is that he is funny guy who has mastered the tough dance of being able to say the harshest things to and about a player but to have them laugh not at him or the target but with them. MM had to use an alarm clock with Drew (a nice and effective touch from what I saw) but Parcells rather than kicking a player physically (certainly because if one actually tusseled with most athletes they would fold you several times)or mentally will put himself in a position regarding Bledsoe and the team whete he can repetitively yell "just throw the dman ball" when Bledsoe hangs onto to it to long, but do so without undermining Bledsoe's authority among the players (who all seem to speak publicly fondly of him even when he was traded and found a better QB) or undercutting the players respect for him which came from success and love rather than respect from him which came from success and fear. The importance is that when the hard times come (as hey always do in life eventually) if you have gotten respect for you based on fear (like a Tom Coughlin for example) when the tough times come people let you die or even plunge the knife in you deeper. However, if people respect you out of love, they often will back you up during the tough times and you gain the ability to discipline them because they do not want to disappoint you.

I think the ikey thing about the reality of all of this is that the current system between the NFL and NFLPA works pretty well. True the contracts are not guaranteed as they are in MLB and the players individually do not get as much as they can because of this. True that a player has the practical ability to hold out even when under contract and the result is often that he gets a renegotiated better deal for simply threatening this. However, NOTHING IN LIFE IS PERFECT, and if the partnership between the owners and players involes checks and balances which may create wrong things but generally allow a good product to be produced and avoids the worst acts by all but a few individuals that strkes me as pretty good or at least about the best that cam be done. The CBA has not only stood the test of time so far, but perhaps more important it has stood the test providing a framework for the owners an players to work out disagreements without the stoppages of the season as the CBA has been reworked by the parties and extended twice. In fact. the current drama and delay in redoing the CBA again is not a problem between the players and owners but a division among the owners between the haves and the have even more. Hold-outs are bad, owners walking away from agreements they have made is bad. However, the product as a whole is good and everyone is making far more $ than they deserve. Those who point out the obvious failings of the system are those who choose perfection over good and if either party took the same approach they would achieve neither perfection nor good as a result (see the NHL if you want an example).

This is an interesting question regarding the Bills. I think a number of players are underrated particularly given some of the grief they get on TSW. I agree that Lindon Fletcher is underrated by the football pundits and the rest of the worked. I think he has led the Bills in tackles every year that he has been here whether our D was good or bad he is a magnet to ball carriers, Hiw work in his early days here was quite impressive because our DL was so bad they could all be handled one-on-one and he would have an OL player in his grill assigned to get him and he would sttill make tackles. He is the D captain and seems to know what is going on in terms of the refs calls on most plays. Yet he has never made the Pro Bowl or even get an alternates nod for the most part. He also gets grief he does not deserve in TSW, he is a bit out of control sometimes but I think a lot of this is because he is trying so hard. Add to this that I think the refs laid at least one personal foul call on him last year he did not deserve and I think this is where the whining comes from To think some Bills partisans have actually advocated cutting him. Another player who I think is underrated speifically here on TSW is Ryan Denney. He is not a Pro Bowler and I agreed with making Kelsay starter over him, but again the idea that he should be cut is not based on an understanding of football as best as I can tell. I think a lot of people dismiss Denney because he was horrible initially because it is reported he did not bend his ig body properly and initially he was easily neutralized or taken out of the play by an opponent using his bad posterior to gt leverage on him. However, despite the fact he was made inactive for much of his first season because he was ineffective, he did solve this problem and even made starter his second season on a bad team. I think Denney demonstrated great value last year though as his play allowed the Bills to go with only three DEs last year despite using a rotation. Denney proved to be not only stalwart against the eun, but also showed great athleticism being able to work well in the zone blitz and drop back using his big wingspan in the shortzone and surprising athleticism to even do good coverag in the medium zone ( he pulled down an INT there last pre-season. Yet, i think he still gets a lot more gried than he deserves because many wrote him off when he was inactive a lot his first year after TD had traded up to get him (because we spent our 2nd on Reed who unexpctedly was there and we had a huge DE need. In addition to that he has never amassed a lot of sacks for us and even less so now because the run blitz has him dropping back on many pass plays. I think the world pays no attention to this second stringer and they are correct not to worry or note our back-ups much. However, i think he is underrated by those fans who do not recognize that he contributed a lot to this D statitically ranked #2 in the nFL last year.

Congrats also Nick and to England. I also am an American quite pleased to see the Olumpics not come to NYC. It probably will not happen anyway without the distraction of the 2012 games coming here, but there is just too much of a desire on US poliyicians parts (be they Dems or Repbs) to invest in short-term thinking and embraace the next episode rather than do the strategic planning that would benefit us all. If the Olympics came here, politicians would use the focus and hoopla which is necessary to pulll off an Olympics and fun to do as another opportunity to have the masses eat cake rather than take any bitter pills necessary because we continue to live on the gravy train regardless of our income. Good luck to us both.

A comparison to Palmers numbers are interesting -- PASSING -- -- RUSHING -- YEAR CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD 2004 263 432 2897 60.9 6.71 76 18 18 25.0 77.3 18 47 2.6 14 1 but the real deal is going to comparing JP's stats to GMs ATT CMP % YDS YPA /GM TD TD% INT INT% SACKS RAT 16 450 256 56.9 2932 6.5 183.3 20 4.4 16 3.6 38 76.6 which were Bledsoe's numbers with a quite similar team. If JP does better than this statistically the move will be generally viewed as an upgrade and if he does worse than this the emphasis will be on his growing pains. The actual stat which will really determine how people feel about this move will actually not be this line but whether the W/L for the team gets better or worse. This of course will be far more determined by differences in competition, how the oddly shaped ball bounces at particular times, what the result of the refs blowing the coin flip end up being and how the D and ST do as many have pointed out. Overall, i think that JPs success or failure this year as a QB will really be determined by how much MM and TC demand that he do, If the run and call the games emphasizing that JP not be asked to carry the team as Drew was and proved to be incapable of doing, I think he will do well. WM, Moulds, and the OL will need to carry the day for our O and results are going to depend much more on how the D performs under Gray's guidance and D captain Fletcher's leadership and how the ST performs under April's guidance and Lindell, Moorman, and the return guys leadership than what JP does. Bledsoe proved to be incapable of providing the effective O leadership we needed with his shortcomings (though ironically he was a far more effective performer and producer in 2004 than in 2003) and I really doubt the young Losman who will still be learning to be a vet will be able to overcome this shortcoming if the coaches and team demand he do things he in unable to do at this point.

It might have happened and been talked about while I was in Denver and then in DC during the last couple of weeks but I just noticed that Bannan's position on the roster is now G/DT instead of simply G as it was this winter. From the way TD talked about him (when he referred to him as "Jason" Bannan-not a good sign if he is hoping to be part of the GM's plans) I thought he might revert back to him being solely listed as a DT or at least DT/G rather than G/DT.

Don;t forget however, that MM was a former TE and I think this is significant for two reasons: 1. He actually does place a lot of importance in the position rather than thinking of it as an afterthought. I think the Bills have shown signs under his tenure of him wanting to utilize the position and spend resources on it to make it work (this in part is why I think we used a first-day draft choice on Everett). 2. Though he views the position as important he does seem to feel he can work personally to improve a player we might judge as inadequate into a player. Maybe so but maybe not. If he makes it work fine, if not then he pays with his customers ire. Overall, i think the TE question is unsettled but we seem to have enough options it doesn't concern me. It would be nice to have Ben Coates or Tony Gonzales but there are rare birds. However, choices must be made because draft choices and the salary cap have limitations. If I had to choose between overspending on Spikes or overspending on an FA TE I would overspend on Spikes. If it cost a 1st or 2nd to get a good TE, I'd pick Evans or Losman instead. I think one canno fault the Bills braintrust for not having a playmaking TD because as pointed out above they tried with Everett but had some bad luck with injuries. As far as assessing our current TE talent as mediocre, this is true if you use the Old English definition of mediocre as meaning medium, but I disagree if by mediocre you mean the modern usage of mediocre as uinadequate or lower than average. In general I think I would call our TEs "serviceable" but certainly not great (except for occaisional games like the one where Campbell caught 3 TD passes. My sense is: 1. Campbell- was a steal by TD who got him for a conditional pick (I think it ended up being a 6th for a right away starter as we simply sucked at TE when we upgraded to a serviceable player. He was interesting in that he had a rep as a solid blocker who didn't catch a lot of passes. Yet, not only did he bust out with his 3 TD game but his 5 tied him for 2nd on the team with Moulds in 4 fewer games and he caught one for his career best in yardage. Its too bad he was hurt and since he is almost 30 if the injury requires the year+ before he gets back to his old form (as it did with E. James) he is probably done but I will let realtiy write the obituary for his playing career rather than make my own fact-free stone cold declaration. 2. Euhus- is a player with some potential to eventually become a good TE though I doubt he will be the kind of talent this thread talks about. Besides potential just means you haven't done anything yet. Add to that Neufeld is recoverijg from an ACL tear. However, he is a younger player and the tear was slight enough that until the swelling went down they were not even sure it was a tear. I don't believe it when they say Campbell is back to his old level, however, I do believe this regarding Neufeld. If he is back he is serviceable with some potential to one day be a threat at TE. 3. Neufeld- I think he is around because of injuries and because he can play H-Back. I'm glad to have him around if the the top 2 are injured because he strikes me as a marginally adequate talent at TE, but it will be good news for the Bills if other rehab enough for him to be cut. 4. Trafford- He is odd man out at almost any scenario at TE, I like him as a player bu he simply does not have the talent or upside of the competion. 5. Everett- It sounds like he may be ready to play this year, but as a rookie it would really be to help him learn rather than for the benefit of the team. Even if he is ready to play this year I say sit him and wait. 6. Peters- He still is a TE in my book because it simply makes no sense to me to take the ball out of his hands, If he is so dimwitted he cannot even be adequate at TE then I find it hard to trust him to guard JP's blindside. If he can produce a couple of TDs on ST with a full year of playing like he did last year he will be worth keeping on the roster. I feel like we can find three among these 6 although it is wait until next year to see how Everett recovers or Peters learns the game to get the Coates/Gonzales this thread started with.

I agree that the facts are not disputed that the Bills record was what the Bills record was. However, what is in dispute is to what extebt there is a cause and effect relationship between WM replacing TH and the events and outcomes for the Bills. Just as one would be illogical to totally disregard the facts of the record which coincided with this switch, it would be illogical to disregard other changes which occured at the same time. Many other things happened which coincided with the change in events besides the switch at RB starter which seem clearly to have impacted out performance (the team getting the hang of and implementing the better teaching and planning by JMac compared to Vinky and Ruel, the Bills presenting a credible threat of running flea-flickers and even using Bledsoe on the draw play, the redzone blocking improving with the switch away from Smith, the ST getting big returns and improving field position, the team running up leads so they forced the opponent to react, etc.). I don't see how you can argue against disregarding this one factor (which should not be disregarded) and then seem to disregard so many factors yourself by saying that all things changed when WM walked on the fieldand TH walked off. Definitely some of these factors are attributable to WM being a far better RB than TH (I don't know of anyone who credibly argues TH should not be traded for value because we are set at RB with WM and the crew). However, in your argumens you seem to latch onto WM being a better run-blitz blocker (he is getting better but I think he struggled with this like most rookies including TH) and actually the primary benefit I think WM brings to stopping the blitz is that he is a far more effective outside running threat than TH and blitzers cannot commit all out to the blitz as they used to do before TC made them sit a second to make sure WM wasn't headed outside, that the runner might pitch the ball back to Bledsoe or that Bledsoe himself might run the delayed draw for positive yardage to the spot they just abandoned to do an outside blitz. By disregarding changes in the Bills play (like the much improved D and ST play last year) that have nothing to do with who the RB is, but lots to do with how effectively we run the ball (the better D and ST play resulted in us stacking up leads and having better field position than last year or the first four-six games which made it easier to run) you simply ignore or disregard part of the game. If you cannot see this approaching it from the what went well for us side, consider it the other way. WM was a great player for us but he did have some Travis Gump like performances last year which seemed to make little difference in the ultimate game results. If you are unable to agree with an approach that sees importance in the work JMac did with the blockers, TC did with the scheme, or even issues which were not O inspired like the positive impacts for the running game which improved ST and D play provided, then consider it from the other side. WM put up Travis Gump or worse numbers a number of times last year as good as he was. Hwe totaled 91 gainst Miami and gave up some points by fumbling but we won on the road anyway. He had a fumble and a botched hand-off as he went slightly pver 100 yard but had less than 4 yards a carry in our laugher against Cleveland. He rushed for 25 yards in the game against Cincinnati he was hurt but we won going away on the road. If WM walking on the field and playing extraordinarily well or simply far better than TH was so clear and apparent how do you explain us winning impressively when he is less than impressive. The occurence of the facts of the Bills record with TH starting and WM starting is true, but the conclusions you seem to draw from this that this is the lead or only factor is simply not the case.

I think we relied heavily on a rotation of DL players last year because that us the way the run-blitz as employed by the Bills wotked. Wiliiams lined up for less than 60% of the D snaps last year because we rotated Phat Pat and Adams as the starting DTs, brought in Edwards on definite passing downs, sometimes moved Denny to DT (causing the benched Adams to complain) and initially Bannan but phased him into the G position as his play there improved our redzone production and Anderson indicated he deserved some playing time. The rotation which you describe as bare cupboards will essentially be the same as the one which helped create a good D last year but will employ Edwards and Anderson for the less than 2/3 of D snaps where PW used to play. If Edwards or Anderson are simply credible as run-stoppers the rotation and play will be about the same. As far as Fletcher playing with OL guys in his grill that was basically what we had in 2001 and 2002 (with Phat Pat here) once Big Ted left and before Adams got here so he can handle it. The key is that the 2001 and 02 teams were ineffective cause they relied on talents like Sean Moran (great back-up but not a starter) and Chidi Ahanatou as starters. The current Bills D which sports Kelsay rather than Ahanatou, Edwards/Anderson rather than Moran, and Spikes rather than Robinson is so much better than the 01/02 models there is no comparison, There may be a drop-off dfrom PW to RE, but it is minor compared to the improvements over the old model where fkletcher had to wade through things on his own for the most part.

My apologies, the concession I make to myself to compensate in my overinvestment in the Bills and TSW is simply spout my flows of unconciousness without taking the extra time from my work to proofread. However, it probably adds little time to write them in Word (or WodPerfect which I still use) which automagically correst misspellings and simply paste in the results. We'll see.