Fake-Fat Sunny

I haven't inspected the tape to try to analyze if a particular players or players were continually he culprits in giving up running yards against Pitts as my sense is that this analysis is probably pretty hard to do as the nature of the zone blitz is that run stopping responsibility on a particular play does not add up at all to what the depths chart says as far as who os manning a particular position. Just beciuse a particular player is listed at a particular positions (lets say Kelsay at LT) does not mean that a run over the left side means Kelsay is at fault. 1, You have to make sure on that particular play that in fact Kelsay is in and not back-up LT Denney. 2. If Denney is in is he replacing Kelsay or are we going with one of the three DE line-ups we used enough last year that Phat Pat took less than 2/3 or the D snaps. 3. Denney might be in at DT or alternately he could be used in out zone-blitz actually in pass prtoection so he falls off the line into the short zone and thus has no run stopping duty. 4. The OLB Posey actually plays a lot right up on the DL where he sometimes also drops back into pass coverage if he makes that read or has run stopping responsiblity so perhaps he is the main cause of giving up run yards and that actually his problem was not failure to tackle but making bad read and dropping back instead of staying at the point of attack. This is only the beginning of figuring out who may be at fault and why. As i have begun thinking back to the Pitts game and wondering why we gave up so much yardage to a scrub, I actually am thinking now that the problem may actually have been that Dick LeBeau actually schooled the Pitts RBs or players about making good fakes in their stances or first moves that fooled the Bills into making bad reads which through the run-blitz off in terms of stopping the run. Who better to pull this off than the developer of the run-blitz and architect the year before of the Bills application of the run blitz. I'm thinking now that if one is looking for blame for this, it begins with the players who simply must play the game so they deserve both the primary credit for good performance and primary blame for mistakes. However, the coaches play an inmportant role in that it is their job to put the players into the best position for them to make good plays. it may be that neither Gray nor Krumrie did this in the game and may not have made the changes necessary to combat LeBeau schooling the Pitts RBs into fooling the Bills to make the wrong reads.

You are right that you seem to expect a lot more from him than I do because I only HOPE he will be a quality NFL vet type QB. While I HOPE this will be the case I simply have no EXPECTATION that my hopes will be reality. The good news for us Bills fan is that MM has already demonstrated in real life that he can go 8-2 over the last 10 games even with a less than adequate QB. Will Losman be an adequate QB? I hope so and he can be, but I really doubt that he will equal the output of Bledsoe haf as Bills QB in 2002 (I call this the Bledsoe Standard or BS level). Do you think or expect that Losman will be a Pro Bowl QB this year? I expect that the Bills will actually do better than the 9-7 record we had last year and this team should make the playoffs. We did 9-7 with an inadequate QB and should at least be able to pull this off again even if our QB proves once again to be inadequate. I have confidence in JP and think he will easily be able to exceed the Bledsoe 2003 performance which was so bad he merited being cut rather than extended even after that disaster.

I think the key for this team is not whether JP plays like a stud (he almost certainly won;t this year and believe it or not will probably play at best like a very talemted second year player- meanings a noticeable number of hiicups and young QB errors). I think the key is going to be MM/TC pulling off the same thing they accomplished last year in the last 10 games in that they and the team somehow went 8-2 despite mediocre and spotty play at best from the QB. If you believe the Bills were correct in replacing Bledsoe with Losman because Bledsoe was inadequate, then you also have to acknowledge that the Bills managed to win 80% of their final ten games even though the QB was generally inadequate with his play. It is possible that JP is already the second coming of Favre, Young or Elway. However, really really really doubt he is there (YET) never having started and NFL game. The key for the Bills winning (like it was with Pittsburgh last year) is not in how fast the QB develops, but whether the offensive braintrust and the team can get the positive production from the whole team and merely get a lack of mistakes and good fame management from their young QB (already a heavy load but easier to accomplish than him bursting on the scene as the new Elway). I have hope and even confidence in the Bills O not because I have much confidence in the play of the young QB, but I do have confidence in the D leading the team for the third year in a row, in the ST at least coming close to the outstanding year they produced last year and our O demonstrated O genius working around JP's inevitable growing pains to still put up the Ws.

Interesting to hear your interest on Hunter. I am persuaded by the observations of the poster who pointed out that his examination of the scrimmage videotape in detail showed how Posey was being employed at OLB in a position he dubbed "the keeper" which had the OLB line up on theDL, and from his read of the offense either drop back in pass coverage or blitz. This made sense to me because this type of use would not show up in the stat column nor is it apparent to the casual (over even most more than casual observers like myself). Posey is clearly deemed by the braintrust be a valued and used player as he has gotten 16 straight starts and plenty of PT with not a whiff of complaints from inside the Bills that Posey was not doing his job. While even some thoughtful and knowledgable posters on TSW have complained about him turning the wrong way or made other the complaints about his play. These complaints have simply not been borne out in a lack of overall success by the D or in the guy we believe Posey is covering scoring TDs or getting big gains. The conclusion I make from this is that Posey is probably doing something right that even close fan observers cannot see right away and which does not emerge in the stats. The observer noted good performance by Posey in this "keeper" role which does square with the D performance and results. Of even greater interest to this overly football committed mind, he noted that the back-up to Posey in this "keeper" role was none other than Ryan Denney who he also felt played well in the scrimmage. This observation also runs completely counter to the conventional wisdom held by many TSW partisans that Denny sucks. However, this analysis is consistent with the fact the Bills went through all of last season with only 3 DEs and a heavy DL rotation. If Denney in fact sucked so bad (some have even argued he will or should be cut after this pre-season) then how do thay explain that he was used so much in a statistically successful D. Why wasn;t this "obviously" weak link picked on mercilessly and effectively by opposing OCs. The answer was that when TD and Gray refer to Denney as being virtually a co-starter with Kelsay they are not merely being kind or covering their asses after trading up for Denney, but actually this is how he is used and has played well in our D. Ask yourself the question why did a good player like Phat Pat only line-up for less than 2/3 of the snaps last year. Thus is in part explained by him always coming out on 3rd down, but even the 3 downs are not divided equally among Bills snaps. it was noted that on many plays in the scrimmage the Bills actually only line up 1 DT and actually three DEs playing. When your one DT is ogten Pro Bowl stud Sam Adams, this why Phat Pat was sitting a lot more often than you would expect a starting DT to sit. The Hunter observation made in this post is interesting because when looking at the zone-blitz in a new light and new scheme than normal 4-3 positioning and thinking, I do wonder who are plan C for this keeper role. Perhaps it is Stamer who showed some good athleticism last year on the INT he tipped and actually caught. Perhaps it is Schobel who actually has shown good athleticism in addition to being our best sack artist. However, if you observe Hunter doing well maybe he does stick with this team as a reserve who can ultimately or in case of disaster play that "keeper" role. I will be keeping an eye on him. The thing that will probably get him unto our PS is how well he seems to do reading plays and the thing which might pull off the incredible longshot of him making the roster is if he shows good ST chops.

My recollection is that in the 2003 season the Bills went with only 2 QBs on the roster with DB and AVP (maybe it was 2002 but this seems like a dicey move onlu a year removed from the Bledsoe collapsed lung). This move allowed them to have an extra roster position and they took it when the young QB we had on the roster (I don't remember what his name was I think it was Stambaugh or something like that but that may not have been it) in camp proved to be a complete failure. I think this move was actually a tribute to Bledsoe's toughness. He immobile and took way too many sacks, but this big boy ke0pt getting up after getting beaten up. We had 3 QB on the roster last year, but after the injruy to JP and Brown this only was because we jerked Matthews off his couch at home. In essence fo the roughly half a season that JP coul not have played if he wanted to, we were going with two QBs and Eric Moulds was in essence the disaster QB.

I agree with you about results determining for the most part his fate as a starter. I think he starts and remains starter unless we lose a bunch of games AND his play can be fairly directly sited as the reason for those losses. The most likely scenario (which I hope never happens again) for the unlikely occurence that he gets benched is that he gets hurt or nicked badly. There is a firm example of MM staying the course at QB even in the face of bad results of his keeping Bledsoe as the guy even after an 0-4 start (true there were few and no alternatives as Matthews was a the only other answer and he was a non-answer for us. However, there was not even a peep of looking at the waiver wire or assessing Matthews and I suspect even with an 0-4 start Losman starts game 5 anyway. I think one of the ironies is that the likelihood for JP playing is that as he learns the game his stats will probably be fairly Bledsoe like in terms of results. Just as the correct thing for MM to do in the face of Bledsoe's stats and play at 0-4 or 1-5 was to stick with the inadequate QB we had. I expect once the regular season begins JP will at least have a series of learning hiccups and actually will be reasonably judged inadequate as an NFL QB in 05, but given what I have seen from MM, TC, April and Gray the team can produce a winning record even with JP being inadequate as a QB while he learns the game.

There is a great post on TSW where C Nittam reviews our D play after he used TIVO to recview the scrimmage in detail. His findings looking at detail certainly coincided with my cursory viewing since and how last season played out that Posey is actually well used and plays well and is a key to our outstanding D performance the last two years and against the Pack on Friday except for some great work led by Farve in the redzone. Posey excels in reading the O well to determine whether they are running or passing on a particular play and getting back into position to force the O to not do what they want and allow both Spikes and Fletcher to clean-up the trash with tackles, It makes perfect sense that Posey is more experienced than Stamer, that he is a couple of inches taller than Stamer and as best as I can tell a faster player. I think you are probably wrong in saying that Stamer is a better player. Posey is certainly a good player based n him starting all 16 games and being a key player iin a good D 2 years in a row. I like Stamer and maybe one day he will step up or contract numbers will make him the way to go, but not today or this season from what i see.

Excellent work and i really appreciate the fact you took the time to do this and also based on the substance I think your observations are right on target. Your observations are consistent with how the Bills D performed last year and actually directly in opposition to the conventional wisdom often posted on TSW that Posey plays badly and that Stamer looks to be a good replacement for this bad player. In addition, the conventional wisdom is that Ryan Denney us a dog as a player and that the debate is whether he is cut after the season or even after this pre-season. I think both these pieces of conventional wisdom are flat out WRONG! Posey- Some posters complain about him (even thoughtful folks like Simon) and site their observations that he was turned the wrong way or they didn't like his angle of attack. Maybe true, but i have asked these folks to also provide a reference to where their observations led to Posey's man scoring against us or even racking up big or significant yards. The sound of crickets chirping when I ask for what should be memorable or relatively easily cited cases are just not there. Like him or not, Posey has been a consistent starter and played a lot of downs for a D which has been one the best in the league statistically for a couple of years and is seen as a strength of this team. If Posey was as bad as people imply or say then why hasn't the D failed often when he is in or opposing OCs simply picked on this weak link. I have not looked into this with the thoroughness you have but it appears that in addition to the broad statistical case I make (which has not been effectively challenged by the Posey naysayers) specifically what Posey does well and is a key part of why our D works and he is a starter is because he does a tremendous job at making the correct read on whether the opponent is running or passing and he gets to the correct position allowing Sikes/Fletcher to clean up the trash and make the tackle or do the blitz. I do like Stamer and was quite impressed with his INT last year where he both bliocked the pass and has the athleticism to make the INT. However, it makes perfect sense that he is no threat to take Posey's position because Posey is better at making reads (a factor which never turns up on a stat sheet) and is a bit better athletically in terms of height and speed than Stamer. Likewise regarding Denney. He is roundly trashed on YSW, but i have tried to rise to his defense noting that we had only 3 DEs last year and that they actually worked in rotation. Denney also struck me as actually lining up a significant enough number of times that I noticed it lining up at DT with all three DEs on the field. Thus line-up explains in part why Phat Pat was on the field for less than 2/3 of the D snaps (this along with hin usually be pulled on 3rd down. The line-up you describe is a big part of the reasin I am not concerned much in us losing PW (a good player but an imimently replaceable one and not worth a big contract from us). Not only are there good signs that Edwards will step up and additionally there is the unconfirmed to date hope that Anderson will step up, but Gray is employing a scheme where we may not miss PW at all even if neither of the two candidates steps up tp replace him. Your analysis provides tangible and specific support for the notion which I think is at the base of folks expecting Denney and/or Posey to ship out, Both players did not do well (and actually sucked) initially. Posey was hailed as a sackmaster based on the 8 he registered his final year with the Texans, but he not only struggled as he made the switch from the 3-4 of the Texans to the GW 4-3. Further once LeBeau brought in the run blitz the strongside linebacker had other responsibilities that the blitz as his priorities and Posey never scored the sack totals of Fletcher and Spikes (who also are simply better players than Posey but being worse than this Pro Bowler and leading Bills tackler does not mean you are bad. Folks also were deeply disappointed by Denney's start where he had such leverage problems and could be defeated and tossed aside by the youngest vet that he simply could not be played his rookie season. However, your observations provide tangible evidence that poster's old impressions are just old and not longer represent how they are used or they perform. You only get one chance to make a first impression and these two players will likely always be judged to bad players when actually they both are good players for the Bills.

I hope Bills fans do show the patience though based on the hyperventilating folks seem to be doing declaring his good but average performance in the scrimmage to be something great I think expectations for him are a bit higher than any QB will reach in his second year (I hope JP is actually an untraded second coming of Favre or Young but this cannot be the measure of whether he is successful or not or he almost certainly will be judged a failure by many unrealistic fans).

I found it good interesting news that the move to LT was his idea as he saw this as the quickest way to getting playing time. This makes sense as we have many unanswered questions at LT if he is looking for an opening. Given that he is still a ways away from learning the posistion to the degree one should be comfortable with him guarding JPs blindside I hope things with Gabdy work out because if he is our plan B at LT we are probably in trouble. Howver, even if he never sees play on the O I think he will be a huge benefit to the Bills through his phenomenal ST potential. His speed, size and what he showed against CIN last year make him downright scary for an opponent to face.

One of the best things I see about JP so far is actually that he takes being trained by the Bills braintrust (and even them jerking him around a bit) pretty well. He has taken criticism of his play as constructive criticism, acknowledged his own short comings and seems to be focused on doint the right things to one day become a productive QB in the NFL. Specifically: 1. He clearly showed cockiness and brashness right from the start (something we fans like as Jim Kelly was also obnoxious off the field but backed it up with a good performance on the field... if one is cocky but do not back this up with on-field production then you're Jeff George and fans will have little patience with you). JP's brashness had him taking some liberties with the QBs practice tutu and pull down the ball and run instead of trying to work the pass play. Troy Vincent took him down a notch by giving him a shove which ended up fracturing his leg. The best thing a about JP though rather than going into a funk and whining because Vincent violated the rules JP was taking advantage, I was impressed that JP seemed to take this lesson like a man and just STFU. I think this was a great move by JP and showed the team and the coaches he was teamplayer rather than a primadonna. 2. The second thing of import I believe happened was that though JP did the right thing by simply STFU, it does not appear that he was as diligent as he could have been during his enforced absence simply soaking up the Wyche knowledge (it simply was a unique opportunity to have a former HC with great offensive chops acting as the QB coach and I hope JP took advantage of this incredibly rare opportunity because in college he showed great physical tools, but though he was great making plays off the cuff while running for his life at Tulane it was really this skull work he was missing in his game). However, the unconfirmed rumor is that though he did well by not whining about his injury he was not as diligent as he could be in his downtime. This theory would seem to be confirmed by MM simply jerking JPs head around by throwing him in to mop-up the NE game. He was horrbile at the end of this game as he clearly was not prepared to excel and it seems even to play in his first game in uniform on the sideline. he relied on his great physical talents but without the coorinated skull work with the team he not only threw an INT but fumbled. The great thing about JP was that again rather than whining, he flat out admitted he was unprepared and publicly commited himself to working harder to get better (a commitment he seemed to fulfill this offseason). His elders taught him the lesson that any time you put on the uniform you must be prepared to play and cover your teamates back. It seems this message was received by JP. 3. The third thing of import from last years' events was that his game clearly showed problems but measured improvement every step of the way. These improvements were not huge and he still is no where near adequacy as an NFL QB (as he showed Friday- good command of himself but little more than some good and some bad results and no TD passes even in several short redzone attempts) but he did demonstrate he was learning lessons and improving wwith each outing: Outing #1: Disaster as he was thrown into the NE game and had an INT and fumble to show for it. #2: Performed far better in mop-up duty. Was still a very flawed performance as he came in with plenty of time to prepare after a TV timeout and change of possession but still took a delay of game penalty as he failed to take even rudimentary control of the huddle. The good news if I remember correctly was that fortunately he handed off the ball properly on 3 or four straight plays and led the team to its first TD under his leadership in this laugher for the Bills. Leading the team in this way was no wonderful amazing job on his part, but was far better than his first pro performance and a reversal of his initial flawed start. #3: Things again got off to a "better" but slow start. This time he showed enough precense of mind to avoid the delay of game penalty but did this by unfortunately having to call a TO when his job was to move the ball and burn time as the Bills built up such a significant lead he had tons of mop-up time. Yet, things were really good this time as he not only led the team to a TD, but hit a nice pass to Trafford doing this and even converted a crucial third into a 1st with his legs to keep the clock moving. The main play flaw in this great performance was after picking up the first he hit a defender hard unecesarily to pick up a couple of meaningless yards since he clearly already had the first. Nevertheless this ballsyness was fun to watch even though it was a stupid rookie move. I was really impressed that JP showed clear signs of being trainable and learning even though there were still miles to go. This is how the scrimmage Friday struck me. JP showed some good signs as he had command of the huddle and team. He got off to a great start and moved the ball. However, he also showed some judgment errors which indicate though his progress is more than acceptable from my view (I think Kiper is wrong to label the performance as iffy) though he cleary still has a ways to go before he is an adequate NFL QB when the real games start. He has shown such good trainability that I am fairly confident that TC/MM will be able to rein him into being Trent Dilferesque and emphasize not making mistakes and like last year with the often inadequate QB play of Bledsoe still win games going away behind great D and ST play.

I think MM/TC/Wyche are more interested in him playing a slash role similar to how they originally envisioned Kordell Stewart rather than the #3 role. Apparently he is beimg worked at camp even as a kick return guy. Using him in a role which flirts with disaster is not the way one would try to use or prepare your disaster QB. My sense is that any MM fantasies regarding Woodbury center around using him in a slash role to make the offense tricky rather slotting him in an inactive role for each game.

It is understandable (though not condonable) that some players lost control of themselves during this pretend game (is pretending to pretend a double negative that make it real?) and engaged in fisticuffs. Its dumb (as one risks getting a penalty which hurts your team or risks getting thrown out which gives some reserve a chance to shine and steal your job) but tempers flare in a game which really is controlled violence. What reallt is problematic about this is that it sounds like from press reports (and press reports are sometimes far from accurate so a real investigation needs to be done by the NFL and/or teams) that the coaches like Giants HC Coughlin were the ones who acted like ten year olds when the deal is here they agreed to be paid tp act like parents. I understand but do not condone the players acting out of line. However, I neither condone nor undertand why Coughlin or the Jets coaches would allow themselves to act like players and lose control of themselves (possibly) or the situation (definitely). If anyone should be fined here it is the "boys" in charge for failing to act like real men. This may be Bills relevant because I doubt the Pack will pass on the soldout gate and TEAM building festivity of their Family night to travel to Buffalo for the multi-day exhibition scrimmage. If NYG or NYJ offers to make the trek to Buffalo (likely because nobody wants this distraction of dueling with them even in exchange for a large gate. I advise TD to pass on their kind offer and look for a real team that will work toward muutal goals and good work and practices as we do our real job of building a good TEAM.

I unfortunately did not note their positions either (LBs not being a major point of decision making for this team and thus not a major focus of my attention). I also decided not to record it because while amateur tape review by us fans is pretty uninformed and meaningless for the most part during pre-season and merely meaningless during regular season I think it is really misinformed for the most part in terms of scrimmages so I do not have tape either. However. the great thing about football now that play has begun is that doses roll around pretty quick so I will look for this against Indy. As far as the Posey issue, I think he has gotten a bum rap in terms of TSW assessment so far. 1. Being a weaker player at LB than Spikes and Fletcher is no indictment at all. 2. Being the "weak link" in a D which was second statistically in the league last year is likely not much of an indictment either. 3. A lot of the disappointment of Bills fans in him I think came from him posting some very good sack numbers (8 I think) for the Texans in their 3-4. Particularly because we were used to a Bruuucccee like performance at DE and we had the likes of Chidi Ahanatou at LDE we were really eager for the next Bryce Paup to come along and strengthen our sack game. Alas, Posey did struggle a bit here his first year as he struggled to learn the transition from the 3-4 to the 4-3. I think he proved you never get a second chance to make a first impression and folks have disappointed with his play. However, 1. He has been a constant starter on one of the best Ds in the league the last two years. 2. His role has changed a lot from the sackmaster days wih the Texans 3-4 to manning the strongside LB role in the zone blitz scheme we run. In our scheme it seems that Fletcher and Spikes are employed more as going for the sack than Posey is. I say this not merely due to the number difference in results but based on watching the games there were simply few plays I can remember where Posey came in unblocked as the zone blitz tries to create and he simply whiffed on the sack. Maybe he got picked up by an RB backing up the line but i think more likely we had Spikes come in because the weak side offered less traffic for him to blitz through. 3. Though his tackles came no where near comparing to Fletcher and Spikes (again no crime there) he did post 66 tackles placimg him 6th on the team eather than him being a weak link bringing up the rear among starting defenders. I think Stamer is a great player to watch as well. However, I see no big problems with Posey's play and if Stamer is going to take his job it will not come to him by default because Posey is a negative. Stamer will have to take it away woth a clear case he cannot be kept off the field. Stamer's play is not there yet. The best play I thought he made last year was a moce INT where he tipped a pass at the line and kept focus and managed to make the catch also, However, in order to take Posey's job I think we will have to see him do this every other game or so rather than 3 great plays a season. For now if folks want to make a case that Posey is bad that really makes sense, they need to: 1. Provide some clear cases where fan observations that he turned the wrong way or was badly positioned actually led to the other team scoring or making a big gaom. 2. Explain why our D is so productive overall if he is such an obvious weak link. One would think that other teams would pick on him all the time as they went after him and tried to stay away from Fletcher and Spikes. He often is lined up right behind Denney, you would think with all the bitching about these two that it is a guranteed six anytime they are on the field together. For now that case has not been made so I think the call to get rid of Posey (who us quite cap affordable) seem to be little more than fact free opinion.

I agree. Though JP's performance does not meet my BS standard, the BS standard, the Kiper standard, the Clayton standard or that of the TSW poster who expected the second coming of Steve Young are irrelevant when deciding what should be done with Losman or assessing where he is now. I made the point that even Bledsoe in the 2004 season did not meet my BS standard but still the Bills had a 16th game shot at making the playoffs. I doubt that JP is going to prove to be much of a QB in absolute terms this pre-season (though I hope he will) and actually doubt that he will even meet my BS standard in 2005 once he plays in the regular season. However, even though I don't think he is likely to be a good QB when the season begins I think we should start him anyway and we will depend on the D being s gppd, the ST at least coming close to replicating last year;s results and our running game being powerful that I think we can rack up Ws anyway. This is a team that in the last 12 games of last season won 75% of their games playing with a QB who performed inadequately. I think this team can win 10 games and maybe even 11 with JP being little more than adequate and mostly avoiding errors. I agree we should start JP almost come hell or high water all pre-season and probably 3 or 4 games into the season. If he is so bad at that point I would sit him down but I doubt this will happen or be necessary. DHB

I also think you mean Woodbury not Goldsberry, but outside of this I agree with your assessment. I also agree that it will probably take the preseason and maybe 3 regular season games to draw some conclusion to be acted upon (unless injury dictates action for us). Yet my conclusion may differ from yours in while I agree that JP is cetainly the Bills QB of the future. in terms of the game the future is now for me. If (and I mean IF) TC/MM make a judgment that we have a better chance getting a W sitting JP down and going with Holcomb at some point I say do this. In the end if JP is such a weak personality that he is going to fold up an lose confidence if he gets benched then he does in fact have the depth and personality (or lack tehreof) of A Ryan Leaf and the quicker we move on the better. I think he took well to some attitude adjustment which MM did last year. he admitted that he was not prepared to play when MM suddenly threw him to the sharks mopping up against NE and he took the lesson that he must prepare and that anytime you put on the uniform you must be prepared to play. I hope the Bills manage JPs development with even more success than Pitts achieved with RoboQB last year. However, though JP is going to need time to learn the game. results are the ultimate measure. If we start out as badly as last year we have seem that even with an 0-4 start its not to late to be in the hunt for a playoff spot in game 16. The thing which most speaks in JPs favor is that one can achieve this even with adequate (at best) QB play, but if the situation dictates it I'm fine with JP sitting down and learning if we feel Holcomb provides a better shot at a W.

I did not see JJ as being one of the more consistent players on the OL. In fact, I think his performance defined both the best of times (WM had good success running behind the left side of the line often though he also had success running right also) and overall the sack total dropped drastically) , but also the worst of times as Abraham simply beat him like a drum in in of the Jets games and not only did he fail to start two games (once again failing to start all 16 at any point in his career) but he failed to finish two other games because of a concussion and some oher nick. Having trouble playing in 4 of 16 games is inconsistency to me. I wish him luck in SF but i think they overpaid him hugely to get him and though I'm worried about our LT situation I am glad TD did not overpay him.

This is prompted by a poster who said he was disappointed in JP's performance to date because he was led to believe by the excitement over JP when he was drafted that he was the second coming of Steve Young. I hope he is neither the second coming of Young or Brett Favre because both of these players so disappointed the TB teams that drafted them that they were run out of town and went to SF and GB respectively where they became stars. The NFL world is full of QBs drafted early by teams who let them go because they did not meet too lofty expectations and used the learning experience of their failure with the team which drafted them to go to glory elsewhere. The good news for the Bills is that JP got sit on his butt and learn the game without the distraction of preparing himself to lead his teammates or the distractions of yucking it up on the sidelines with his teammates amd hopefully watched and learned from the better vantage point of the booth when he was injured gluing his ear to the mouth of Sam Wyche. Its too complicated to easily track the numbers, but the best study I have seen of real life results indicates that QBs who do not start much or even at all their first year like a Pennington or Vick produce better results generally than those who are rushed along to start right away. Par of this result may be a bias created in the numbers by bas teams drafting QBs and putting them on the field right away, but the numerical comparison I have seen for this attempted to take this into account and the results still were in favor of sitting your QB for a year and then they actually make the playoffs with their team sooner than if they are relied upon to quickly. The results were simply consistent with the fact that no team has drafted a QB who has led them to an SB victory since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989. They were consistent with whether you drafted Ryan Leaf or Peyton Manning for 5 or 6 years the two were tied in playoff victories delivered to their team at 0, nada, zilch until Manning finally lurched ahead of Leaf year before last in playoff wins. The trick for the Bills is not likely at all to be whether they turn JP into a stud QB quickly, but whether like Pittsburgh with RoboQB last year they can run and stop the run effectively so that their youg QB is called upon to manage the game at most rather than win it. It certainly is good for us if JP completes a few deep passes so the threat is real to opposing team, However, if the result of the pre-season is actually some bad passes by JP that gets him and MM/TC to learn they should rein his arm and play in a bit I think ultimately the Bills will produce more Ws. I certainly hope he ends up with a 100% completion average and the highest QB rating ever produced. However I know that these dreams will not happen in real life and our braintrust and QB instead do a good job of picking their spots with JP this is probably the best we can do,

Badol- I respect your opinions here quite a bit (I disagree with them sometimes but I do respect them) but I say as one who posted raising questions earlier about some of the over-praise they gave to JPs work last night that your assessment strikes me as a bit too negative and fearful the other way. My sense is that the initial playcalling and JP passes were not necessarily hand-off type easiness or designed to ease him in. My recollection is: 1. The opening call of the reverse was not a pass-call but was pass-game significant for a couple of reasons: A. Sent the message that this Bills offense may do anything at any time and I think that will be a hallmark of the MM/TC offense. B. Offered JP some initial protection and help because hyped up opponents looking to make a name for themselves right away might aggressively jump routes and guess on what JP might do. By running a surprise right-away the Bills O and JP took the initiative and the Pack defenders were on their heels. C. Seeing the orange jersey of the QB out there as a lead blocker for the reverse established JP as an aggressive player and showed a willingness to risk his body for the team. The play was called back by a penalty but showe zero sign of easing him into this. 2. He hit Moulds coming back on a play which netted a first down. I'd label this a hand-off type pass if he virtually lateraled to Moulds behind the line, but this pass was downfield, right on time to Mould who immediately turned upfield for the first. 3. He did hit Campbell with a relatively short pass where he was tackled immediately. but the fact he was hit immediately but still got 3 yards are indicators it was not a "hand-off" but downfield and into some coverage. Campbell later caught a pass further downfield (maybe it was Holcomb but I think it was JP and was a completion even further downfield than his first pass to Campbell. I think trying to interpret body language is really dangerous in terms of drawing conclusions. I agree that it felt like JPs lack of control did snowball downhill, but rather than charting this from some reading body language which usually says more about the observer than the observed, i charted this as stemming from he in game mistake all could see of the bad almost INT in the flat rather than a body language read. I may misremember the order of events, but my guess is that his second big mistake of throwing an incomplete pass rather than walking it into the endzone probably stemmed from him desperately wanting to share a TD with someone on a pass rather than doing all himself. Finally, I think it reads to much into things to compare any of the Bills's QBs performances to each other because their was such a huge drop-off in the relative talent of the opponent as you went down the depth chart. I thought their D starters were pretty bad actually so it will be interesting to see if JP can even complete 54% against tougher competition, but their 2nd and 3rd string player looked simply bad so I think it is tough to compare Matthews or Woodbury to JP at all based on their opponents talent level. Its tough, since maybe they were so bad because Matthews and Woodbury are so good, but i doubt this and just think that the Pack reserves are just not very good.

Okay and needs work are the same thing in my book. Its okay to need work when you are starting at QB in the NFL for the first time and its the first scrimmage of the pre-season. Does he need work? Yepper. In fact, does he need a lot of work? Yepper. Does he need more work than a 10 year vet (aka Bledsoe)? Yepper. Is his game so incomplete and unfinished that he needs more work than I would expect a 1st round pick to need? No not at all. JP shows every sign of being a high quality pick. It just doesn't represent any football sense to expect him to only need the 1 solid series of work against an opponent that is reasonable for a vet QB starter.

I saw this on the NFL Network crawl last night. My first though was that I hope Terrell Owens did not laugh at this news but I would not be surprised if he (or at least his agent) smiled knowingly. The second thought was the great one though, Josh Reed as the centerpiece for the Bills of a Corey Simon trade.

Before you panick and say WHAT???? recognize that I don't believe that Bledsoe came anywhere near achieving what I am calling "the Bledsoe Standard" anytime after the NE abused Bledsoe after facing him in 2002. What I mean when I use the phrase the Bledsoe Standard (or the BS QB standard if you want to use shorthand is): 1. The QB demonstrates leadership control of the team and good decisonmaking with the leadership. 2. The QB succeeds in distributing the ball amongst the O so multiple players are successful. 3. The QB uses his own skills to help the team win in ways that only he can do. I think by this standard Bledsoe easily achieved this level in 2002. 1. He inspired the team (and in fact the region) by making us far more hopeful as soon as he arrived (as demonstrated by turnout to the Welcome Drew shindig at the Ralph where apparently 20K fans showed up and season ticket sales and instant credibility came to the team which had posted a 3-13 record the previous season). This hopefulness turned into belief on the part of Bills fans where even despite him being undressed by NE twice that season we had nea NFL record improvement to 8-8 and Bledsoe deservedly got the nod as a Pro Bowl reserve (if you disagree then simply say who was left off that deserved it more for their play that season. 2. Not only did DB get the Pro Bowl nod, but Moulds hit the century mark in receptions and folks bitched when PP did not make the Pro Bowl with 94 catches. TH made the Pro Bowl with 1400+ yards and 40+ catches and even performances by players like Centers and Remeirsma made folks hopful. 3. Despite the production outages against NE, folks hoped that by better playcalling would neutralize this weakness as several strong armed performances by Bledsoe throwing through nasty winds were key to victories. There were legit concerns about his age making him less effective in the seond half of the season, but a good Bledsoe performance in the season's final game against CIN pointed to the production drop-off being from BB/Crennel providing a roadmap on how to neutralize him which could be countered by Kevin Killdrive diversifying the scheme rather than Bledsoe simply running out of gas sometime in late Novemeber. However, in 2003 Bledsoe himself came no where near meeting the BS-QB he set in 2002 as the team failed to even score an offensive TD for numberous quarters in a row during a critical period in 2003. 2004 under Mm saw definite improvement eventually under Bledsoe. However, this improvement seemed to lend itself to better playcalling by TC once we got established (he even used Bledsoe effectively as a running threat which cut back the sellout blitzing which destroyed us in 2003) and D/ST play rather than Bkedsie showing any ability o put the team on his shoulders. Bledsoe was unable to meet the BS last year. This definition brings us to the present. Did JP achieve the BS last night? 1. Did he show leadership of the team? Yes and no. Yes in that he performed far better than his early gigs last year when he got the needed learning experience of being thrown into the NE game, or when he took a delay of game penalty when he failed to even call the play properly in his next game or took a stupid TO when his job was to run the clock in his next game (well at least he wasn't penalized which was critical since he did move the sticks with a nuce 3rd down run that game). JP completed a number of passes in a row to start the game which was very impressive. However, as the game went on he did seem to get a little excited and lose control and particularly after he threw a horrndous pass into the flat that fortunately was not caught by the defender sitting on his throw who could have easily scored, JP made a number of questionable decisions. He showed the ability to lead that showed improvement over his rookie year but it still unclear whether the quality of decision-making will be good enough to lead us to victory or DOOOMMM. 2. I thought he distributed the ball quite well amongst the players. The hand-offs to WM were TC calls but he did this effectively and his play fakes were good. He threw a nice pass to Moulds, it was a welcom site to see him connect successfully with Reed and he is developing a rapport wit Parrish as a target that is great to see. I was quite pleased to see him connect with Campbell a couple of times as he recovers from an ACL injury. He did a nice reverse to Evans to start off the game (called back by penalty unfortunately) and certainly threw to him and I think maybe even completed one to this player whom we hope is linked to him like Montana/Rice or Kelly/Reed as a combo. 3. JP was picked as an upgrade over Bledsoe because of his mobility and the creative success he showed running for his life at Tulane. He again showed flsahes of why he was picked in the scrimmage yesterday as he show good pocket awareness and some escapability. However, in addition to some nice accuracy on some plays he also had fits of under and overthrowing which ended him up around 50% completion rate. Perhaps more problematic but no unexpected in a young QB were a few bad judgments such as the near INT in the flat and passing for an INC when he likely could have strolled into the endzone. Was it a good night for JP? Yes. He is a young QB and it is doubtful to me he will be able to carry this team on his back except in occaisional episodes this season. We will get Ws to the extent the team plays well and MM/TC emphasize JP manage the game (which with a firm hand from TC/MM he can do) and not win the game through him playing like Elway this year (this will not happen and he will be lucky to even reproduce the ultimately failed efforts of RoboQB for Pitts last year). Did he even meet the Bledsoe Standard set in 2002? Nope. He is no where near this and probably will not be in 2005. Folks should not panic however, because even with Bledsoe falling well short of the BS last year we almost made the playoffs. JP can develop well this year, still fail to meet the BS and this team can make the playoffs anyway if the D plays as well as last year and avoids the power outage they had against Pitts in the last game AND if the ST also pulls off something like the great job they did last year under April but avoid ST mistakes like Lindell missing a chip shot or Clements laying a PR on the carpet. I don't think JP will meet the Bledsoe Standard in his second year of play, but that will be good enough if the rest of the TEAM does what it did in Games 5-15 last year.

I view this pre-season as an opportunity to give JP a chance to swim, but even if he does not show the ability to swim and lead the team to glory right now, I do not view the alternative for and with him as we are destined to dorwn if he is not ready to swim. Rather than viewing the alternative for the Bills as being DOOMED to sink and drwon unless JP steps up to the plate, I have no trobule with the Bills benching him and going with Holcomb gives us a better chance to put critical Ws on the board. I do not view this as meaning that JP has a shortleash in my book and we should pull him and go to Holcomb unless JP puts up Robo!QB like results which Pittsburgh had last year. In 2004 we had direct proof in the real world that a team can in fact get off to an 0-4 start and still be a win away from the playoffs in the last week. I can deal easily (well not easily but I can deal with it) with learning pains for JP costing us a couple of games as long as MM is sure that he he has actually learned his lesson from these bumps. However, likewise, I have no problem with sitting JP down if the bumps are such that we have a better chance of putting up Ws with Holcomb and JP will learn better if there is some accountability and responsiility for screwing up. I understand that part of keeping a player's confidence and a team confident in a player is sticking with him in tough times. However, JP is a big boy and he also will need to take one for the team and suck it up if he is not producing and MM/TC judge Holcomb may well produce if we go with him. JP does get the pre-season and likely part of the regular season to learn his craft in my book. However, if things go badly and it his play which is at fault during the regular season I have no problem sitting him down. In fact, if we go 0-4 again and it is not primarily his fault but we need a big change to turn things around, I have no problem with him being sat for what the braintrust judges is for the good of the team. The only problem I would have had if they had jerked Bledsoe after the 0-4 start last year was that I did not see his play as being the reason for our failure at all and most important did not see Matthews coming in as being a difference maker for us. As it turned out the Bills prospects and results benefitted from JP being hurt and not even an alternative to play last year after tje 0-4 start, because we probably would not have even had the 9-7 near miss if MM had panicked and went to JP last year as a starter. The best thing about Holcomb is we have a fighting chance even if JP sucks in his first year as starter (but only if he sucks bad enough and TC/MM are strong enough to make a swich if necessary).

What is really bad is that amidst the current remake frenzy striking the business world of Hollwood they seem to be entitling a new series set in Vegas featuring a charachter named Kolchack the Night Stalker set for this fall. I saw an ad for this show and merely rolled my eyes when I saw it because throwing up (a reasonable reaction to recent big budget remakes like War of the Worlds) is simply more effort than they deserve. My cousin who I had recently reconnected with after a decade of not seeing each other asked me what my top 10 favorite films of all time were as a quick way of reintroducing ourselves. Duel was on my top 10 film list.

The Bills seem to be managing Lindell and KO attempts in a way that they expect (more than simply hope because if they judged him that bad they likely would have kept some more alternative) him to do well. However, for the life of me I cannot figure out how this is supposed to work unless Lindell is more solid than his record of production or we get darn lucky. Kickers are weird birds and managing them is an art where the personality of the kicker says as much about what the successful thing to do may be. It strikes me that the fair, honorable and usually successful thing to do in managing and developing a player is to challenge the player. A good coach to me is one who uses both carrots and sticks to get the most out of his players (employees, charges, whatever). There really is a "tough love" relationship which describes the work of the best coaches like a Parcells in that they clearly criticize and demand a lot of their players, but this is leavened by their showing loyalty to their "boys" and standing up for them as long as they are making a quality effort and watching their teammates backs. The good coach creates a world where his team is actually a TEAM and they succeed in part because of this. Players are in fact treated differently based on their willingness to contribute to the whole and sacrifice for the teammates. However, if the HC is perceioved to be playing favorites and rewards a selfish player the TEAM breaks down an is only a team of independent contractors. However, kickers can be so weird and individual confidence is so critical to their performance that handling them is really an art. The Bills did seem to challenge Lindell by actively looking for and signing placekicekrs this offseason. However, they seemed to shy away from actually having any real competition for him this summer on the roster and appear to be committed to him in a sink or swim kind of way. I am not surprised that they did not give Lindell any practice or unofficial chances in this scrimmage because I doubt that suceeding in kicking would add much to his confidence and that if they blew a kick that might be fatal to his confidence. We'll see.