dave mcbride

Wow. Strong talk!

Better QB rating. Far fewer turnovers (fewer INTs, fewer fumbles). Better completion pct. Better YPA. These are key categories, particularly YPA. And one of the reasons his ypc was lower is because he had so many touchdowns (touchdown runs lower the yards you would have gained if the EZ line wasn't there). Anyway, as I mention in my thread below, Allen and Hurts were deemed by PFR to tie for the league lead in approximate value. He was entirely deserving. Allen was deserving too, but I have no issue with Hurts getting it given JA's propensity for red zone turnovers this season. It was a problem.

To be fair, Basham was picked at the tail end of the second round, and the difference between that and the third round is pretty small -- e.g., between the 61st pick (where he went) and, say, the 75th pick.

Hurts was better than Allen in virtually every statistical category except total passing yards, total TDs, and yards per carry. He had a PHENOMENAL season and was deserving. 14-1 as a starter too. Allen had a great year too, of course. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HurtJa00.htm

Most ridiculously unlucky Marty playoff loss ever, and there are a lot of them. Marlon McCree had the game WON if he takes a knee after picking Brady with almost no time left, but he runs it back and fumbles it back to the Pats!

Their AV measure is essentially their NFL equivalent for WAR (MLB; wins above replacement) and VORP (NBA; value over replacement player). Here are the leaders: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/leaders.htm. Hurts really had a great year too; such a great runner (13 rushing TDs, passer rating of 101.5). I never expected it of him, and kudos to him for proving me wrong. Allen was first overall last year (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/leaders.htm) and 3rd in 2020 (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/leaders.htm).

Wild prediction: Jackson and Roman end up on the Jets. Him not playing in the playoffs is about more than just the injury, I believe. He wants out. I also think we're in the process of watching a bridge between the player and the team being burned. I can't imagine the Ravens are thrilled with this at all.

Adams had fewer drops (7) on more targets (180) than Hill (8, 170) but Hill got 70 percent of the passes thrown his way and Adams 55.6. Two things here: having Waddle on the other side really takes away the double coverage potential, and Adams was doubled a LOT. Also, Tua is very accurate; more accurate than Carr, who is decently accurate. Adams was the most double-covered receiver in the league: Also, while this is only through 16 games, Adams was targeted 6 more times than Hill but had 22 fewer catchable balls: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php. Point is, there are numbers beneath the numbers and also the broader team context that players operate within.

Well, don't highlight "the team is terrible" part because it absolutely affected his stats in a negative way. He's not the problem there. Josh Allen on Aaron Donald: "He's one of one, I think everybody knows that. It's scary to watch the film of him, but it's just understanding that you've got to go in with a plan."

Virtually every offensive player (including qbs like Josh Allen and o-linemen) I've ever read about who have been asked to say who the best defensive player is reply with Donald. Sometimes, the stats don't reveal what the players know from engaging with a player on the ground. Production-wise, he didn't deserve it (missed six games; the team is terrible), but in terms of ability, he remains second to none.

Adams was absolutely spectacular this season, I thought. Uncoverable. Also led the league in TD receptions.

He has built a great defense (best yards-given-up-per-play average in the league this season), but they simply don’t have a qb. Mike White is serviceable but quickly got hurt. You can’t win in the NFL without a qb, and to be honest 7-10 isn’t bad if there is no real qb.

Yes, I think they view him as the best of the best in the technical sense, and basically unblockable. He only played in 11 games for a very bad team, but was still Aaron Donald when he played.

Good point.

That is a good and logical all-pro team. I can’t argue with any of it.

He was elite for the Bills this year. He was basically unblockable in key moments. Talent-wise, it was effing OBVIOUS he was their best pass rusher. I mean, come on.

The Jets game at home and a terrible Bears team probably account for a lot of that differential. I felt like the Bills pressured fields nearly every play and they destroyed Mike White. Also, the Bears' talent is absolutely awful.

The parenthetical numbers are their rankings out of 32. The Bills are second vs. nickel and the Dolphins nickel D is the 25th best nickel D in the league.

One thing to keep in mind is that the cap is likely to go WAY up. Bear in mind that it went down in the covid year and the league has had a banner year revenue wise this year. It's expected to go up by $15 million or so: https://www.nfl.com/news/salary-cap-for-2023-nfl-season-could-exceed-220-million-but-questions-remain .

Monday is a national holiday, so presumably you're good.

Edmunds was one of the two-three best players on the field vs. NE. He was also terrific vs. Chicago.

Enh, it's basically an inflation-adjusted version of the Fred Warner contract. https://www.nfl.com/news/niners-linebacker-fred-warner-s-lucrative-contract-has-a-unique-structure-with-t. The going rate for elite off-ball LBs, basically. Edmunds will likely get something in this neighborhood given his youth (he'll be 25 in May).

They're both very good. Edmunds played at an elite level this year, and it's a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league.

Who cares about Lamar. What does Edmunds think?

They beat them in 2020 and SF was devastated by injury. They started Nick Mullins and a ton of guys were out on defense, including Bosa. The Bills won 34-24 but were up 34-17 with less than a minute to go. The Niners scored a garbage time TD in the last minute.