dave mcbride

If people want to talk about bad defensive performances in the playoffs, how can we neglect mentioning the Colts game? The Colts should have beaten Buffalo. They gained 472 yards and didn’t turn the ball over. It was crazy that the Bills won that game given how easily the Colts marched up and down the field. Accurate, experienced qbs with elite qualities shred zones, and that’s what Mahomes, Rivers, and Burrow have all done. The other thing I’ll bring up is Allen vs. blitzes. He was bad against the blitz this season, and someone as good and experienced as he is should be a LOT better against the blitz. Elite qbs generally shred blitzes. His processing was not great this season. Don’t know what’s up with that, but he has to be given some easier answers vs blitzes and he has to choose those answers immediately. I thought he had a sneakily terrible game yesterday - one of his worst ever. Bad decision after bad decision that resulted him holding the ball too long, opting for futile scrambles, and making low percentage throws.

Can’t read it. Paywall. Can you provide the gist?

Aha! Apologies.

This is not true; Chubb had a strip sack late that nearly changed the game. From Jim KubiK’s Buffalo News analysis: ’On third-and-10, Bradley Chubb nearly changed the outcome with this great pass rush to Allen’s left. This view gives you a taste of how disruptive and smothering the Dolphins’ man-to-man defense was as Allen had nowhere to go with the football. The press-man coverage took away quick, easy throws, which forced Allen to hold the football. Press-man is feast or famine: If a defense can disrupt timing and create incompletions while simultaneously forcing the quarterback to wait longer than he wants to, that is a good formulal for winning. The trouble is that most teams don’t possess the high-quality defensive backs the Dolphins have. The combination of great cover players and a potent and physical pass rush is what made the Dolphins such a dangerous team. They were highly coordinated, physical and great in space covering down the field. The Bills were fortunate that Spencer Brown recovered this fumble. Dion Dawkins was clearly beaten around the outside by Chubb on what initially appeared to be a five-man rush, but what was actually only a four-man rush. Allen had a drag route by Knox immediately to his right, but also had no reason to get rid of the ball as everyone had been accounted for in his protection. He couldn’t see Chubb as he was trying to attack the man-press coverage over the top. This fumble was not Allen’s fault. It was great defensive execution, squeezing the Bills receivers with press coverage, making Allen wait, and rushing the passer with abandon. This was the Dolphins' formula, and it nearly worked.’

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/1/20/23563615/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-offense Ringer breakdown of where Allen needs to get a little better.

I know many discount fate, but ... Ohio State QB becoming Chicago Bears QB is unholy matrimony if I've ever seen it. Maybe the curses nullify each other, but so far the signs aren't great.

I'm a Stones guy, but I have to admit that my favorite album of all time now may well be the expanded edition of The Who Sell Out. The Who recorded it as a double album but the label made them release as a single one, and what ended up on the cutting room floor is incredible stuff. The full edition was released in 1995. I change my mind a lot about favorite albums, but this one is always up there for me. I think the Police suck, but that's just my personal taste.

Just watched Todd Haynes' Velvet Underground documentary the other night. It is the best documentary about a band I've ever seen:

So the early 90s Bills are worthless then? "Win it all or you don't count" seems like a pretty extreme way to view the world, but maybe that's just me.

Gronk moved from Williamsville North to an elite Pittsburgh area school for his senior year ...

It worked against the BIlls, but not many other teams. They were 24th in points allowed, 18th in yards allowed, and 30th in turnovers forced. And that's a unit with real talent.

Eric Weddle is arguably the best safety in the NFL over the past 15 years. He's at least in the very top tier.

Why "lmao"? Do you deny that they almost got to the SB in 2011 and 2013 and almost won in 2012? And when I say "almost", I really mean it -- games coming down to one play at the end, basically. Btw, if you thinking I'm advocating hiring Roman, you're missing my point. This has nothing to do with the Bills and everything to do with his actual record.

Because in every one of those years, the final playoff games came down to essentially last-play situations: a weird muff in 2011 in OT, a fourth down miss from within the 10 yard line with a few seconds to go in 2012, and a ridiculously good Richard Sherman breakup of a pass to Crabtree in the EZ on the final play. They played evenly with their opponents in all of those games, and in 2011 and 2013, their opponents went on to win SBs. Yes, the Niners had good defenses, but -- for instance -- the Niners run game in the 2012 SB was unstoppable once it got rolling late in the game. They could easily have won that game. Indeed, on the third down play on their final possession, the play was there but Kaepernick missed seeing the crosser, who would have scored. In 2019, the Ravens put up 530 yards but had a staggering number of turnovers and the like. Tennessee literally couldn't stop them and Baltimore was clearly the better team. They would have beaten TN 8 out of 10 times, but turnovers of course happen. Or they draft five difference makers on D this year with the haul they get from trading out of one, play ball control, and win with a dominant defense, going 13-4 and winning a SB. It's not like this hasn't almost happened multiple times in the past with Roman.

I dunno, CB; I'm less about long term development than winning a SB. And the 2019 Ravens as well as the 49ers every year between 2011 and 2013 were SB caliber teams without a doubt. To put it a different way, what Josh is doing at age 30 doesn't mean much to me if he brings us a SB victory this year. I think @GunnerBill is absolutely right about the Bears, and I'd add another reason. 75-plus years is a long time, and that's been about how long the Bears have lacked anything approaching an elite passing game. If any team is cursed with regard to passing QBs, it is the Bears. They should accept that they can't change fate and instead go all out to be a Ravens-like running QB team with Roman calling the shots.

The year the Ravens went 14-2, they moved up and down the field vs. TN and lost only because of turnovers. They had 530 yards on offense in that game! It was a genuinely fluky loss. They were number one in the league in offense that year too. And Roman OC'd a team that got to three straight NFC championship games and one SB while in SF, where the team's record was 36-11-1.

Good point. Buddy Nix was ALL about that region of the country: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2011_draft.htm and https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2012_draft.htm

Um, Burrow did the opposite of looking away from Tre White 17 days ago ... This is simply not true. He was pressured all game and sacked 4 times.

https://theathletic.com/4105045/2023/01/19/college-football-recruiting-star-system-disparity-nfl/ (paywall) This is pretty interesting although not terribly surprising. Guys who produce on offense in the NFL are by a wide margin lower-star recruits than guys who produce on defense. There's also interesting stuff about how the big-time high school evaluation industry is based in the Southeast and hence misses on a lot of QBs and o-linemen. -- 'Jacobs’ rise to superstardom is just the latest example of an interesting scouting oddity of sorts. On this year’s NFLPA All-Pro Team, none of the 11 offensive players selected had been a five-star recruit; only one of them, guard Zack Martin, was even ranked as a four-star prospect. The average star ranking of the 11 players was 2.0. It’s on the opposite side of the ball where stars apparently really matter. Of the 11 defensive players on the All-Pro team, seven had been five-star recruits and two more were four-stars prospects. The other two were three-star players, making the average 4.5. [Interesting side note: Stefon Diggs was second-team all-pro and a five-star recruit.--DM] The Athletic asked 13 individuals in the evaluation and coaching world why they think there is such a disparity in how the star system works related to offensive and defensive players. The individuals were granted anonymity in order to speak freely about player evaluation and college football recruiting. “My theory: You can disguise a good player on offense and also uplift and over-evaluate a player with an unbelievable supporting cast,” said former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, a draft analyst with NFL Network. “With defensive guys, it’s more, ‘Did you beat the guy in front of you?’ And when it comes to D-linemen, there’s only so many of those guys. It’s like with cornerbacks: There are physical requirements for those positions. You can play with a 4.6 wide receiver. You can’t play with a 4.6 cornerback.” One Big Ten recruiting coordinator echoed Jeremiah’s comments. “If a defensive player does their assignment and wins their box or one-on-one, they can have immediate impact and success,” he said. “On the other hand, offensive players are heavily dependent on scheme — and each other. Like a dynamic wide receiver is highly dependent upon the QB and O-line. The QB depends on the OL. A good running back can be neutralized if the offense can’t spread defenders to make space. “I think you can identify the talent and the traits that make them elite. The challenge is projecting the fit based on offensive schemes. Kenneth Walker’s running style was a fit for Michigan State.” Walker, too, was a curious evaluation study. He was ranked by 247Sports as a two-star prospect, the 229th-best running back in the Class of 2019. Wake Forest was his only reported Power 5 offer. In two seasons in the ACC, he was a solid back but didn’t break out until he transferred to Michigan State, where he ran for 1,636 yards and won the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top running back. The Seattle Seahawks took him 41st overall last year, and he’s one of six finalists for NFL Rookie of the Year. “Running backs are a dime a dozen, and it’s all about fit,” a Big 12 recruiting coordinator said, “same reason Willie Parker was a backup at North Carolina and ends up being a Super Bowl hero.” The theories about the evaluation process are all over the map — literally. “Most of that (online recruiting) industry lies in the Southeast, where the big money and interest is. That’s where most of the best defensive talent exists too, with D-linemen and DBs. Hence the Rivals and 247 guys can see and evaluate them more in the Southeast,” said FSU director of high school relations Ryan Bartow, who previously spent a dozen years covering recruiting for 247Sports and Rivals. “The best spots for QBs (California and Texas) and for O-line (the Midwest and Northeast) are seen by less in that space and industry.” The average star rankings of 11-man units also can be skewed by the fact that the two toughest positions to evaluate, quarterback and offensive line, would make up more than half of that starting unit. The All-Pro quarterback this year is former three-star recruit Patrick Mahomes.'

I agree about mugging, but I also don't mind a bit of contact. Call it too tight, and it gives a big advantage to the offense.

yep, and duly deleted!

It looks like he held the receiver before the pass was released and then committed DPI. My understanding is that DPI should be the call in those instance because it's the greater penalty. It was borderline, though, and I'm not angry that it wasn't called. Gotta let players play.

Didn't know that. Thanks.

Trust me, the Bills simply can't get home with 3.

I don't know about that ... they would have had second and goal from the 4 or 5 yard line if the refs had properly called forward progress stopped, but lots of teams fail to punch it in from there.