dave mcbride

Interestingly, three nfl.com draft analysts -- including Jeremiah, who is very good and talks with scouts from all the teams -- have the Bills taking Robinson. I am NOT saying I like it! But they all say that he's a legit top-ten/top-five overall player. I do believe that the Bills were going to take Etienne in 2021, by the way, but Jax snagged him. Daniel Jeremiah: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2023-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-texans-ravens-among-four-teams-selecting I think Robinson is one of the elite players in this draft class -- worthy of a top-10 pick. However, most teams simply don’t believe in taking a running back this high, and the depth at the position in the upcoming free-agent market could impact Robinson's value on draft day. Lance Zeirlein: https://www.nfl.com/news/lance-zierlein-2023-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-buccaneers-select-tom-brady-s-successor Robinson is my fourth-rated prospect in the entire draft, so obviously I see this pick as a major steal for Buffalo. Robinson should take a considerable amount of pressure off of Josh Allen's shoulders. Erick Edholm: https://www.nfl.com/news/eric-edholm-2023-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-four-qbs-selected-in-top-10-bills-eagles-add Would the Bills really draft a back in Round 1? If Devin Singletary walks in free agency, maybe. This offense needs another outlet, and Robinson is one of the top playmakers in this class, a spectacular all-around talent worthy of going much higher.

Well, he played great in a playoff game, so that's something that sticks with me. Granted, it was vs. a total scrub, but still.

Totally true, but the issue is that he's EXTREMELY expensive salary cap-wise for a fifth rounder.

At the end of the day, he drafted Josh Allen, which means he got the biggest of all big things 100 percent right and wasn't even remotely close to being in position to land him at the start of that draft cycle (before trades). He's drafted some good players and some meh players like all GMs. Oliver is the only shaky first round pick because the DTs taken behind him in the first are generally better. But he's not bad. Allen, Edmunds, Diggs (yes, I will always treat him as a first round pick because we spent an actual first round pick to get him), and Rousseau are all good, and the jury is out on Elam.

Who is DJ? And what are the concerns?

Bernard was a Cotton Bowl MVP with 20 tackles vs Ole Miss and I wonder if the Bills overestimated him because of "the tape" given that he certainly doesn't have the build you'd expect for an NFL linebacker. Reminds me of Keith Ellison. Here's a scouting report of him. Note the "elite intangibles" - that's catnip to McDermott. So far, though, he looks like a special teamer. I don't think this is going to have a happy ending. "Undersized sub-package nickel linebacker with special-teams value on the next level. Bernard possesses elite intangibles and teams will be drawn to him because of it. He's resilient, productive and showed a willingness to play through pain. However, Bernard lacks the desired frame and play strength and will face scrutiny surrounding his injury history. He needs space to operate and has the speed for man-cover duties as a pro. If the medicals check out, he should be a Day 3 pick with sub-package value."

Good post ... except for the "2 or 20" thing. With the caveat that I'm NOT saying that chances are good that we've got a Hassan Reddick on our hands, check out Reddick's leap between years 3 and 4: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/ReddHa00.htm. I wanted to sign Reddick (as you may recall), but I remember replies to the effect that he was a one-year wonder. Epenesa HAS improved, and if he gets, say, 11-12 sacks next season, the Bills will have an interesting problem on their hands. Because he will get paid if that happens. Not saying it will! Interesting that AZ chose to pay JJ Watt over Reddick in 2021. But AZ is a bad franchise.

My point is not catastrophism, which is you're imputing (i.e., the snarky "doomed"), but rather an unexpected handicap at the margins in the draft this year. I'd rather not have to deal with the handicap, but that's just me. They're drafting late without a full set of picks along with zero comp picks and they need some successes because they're going to be hard-pressed to take advantage of the FA market the next couple of years. Having an expected fifth get pushed back to the sixth is the sort of thing that reduces the draft capital they'll need to get a mid-round player (e.g., a move up to the fourth/late third or something like that) they really like. The sky isn't falling. But I wish the Bills had a better slate of picks than they do given that we're now in the massive-Allen-contract era.

It may have been something like wins an "NFL player of the week award," which he did (ST player of the week for the NE game). Not that I have any idea of what precisely triggered it, of course.

Not my point at all, but whatevs.

Agreed. In the abstract, yes, but if you're a built-to-win now team, It's less important when you have a ton of cap space and can spend money on high end FAs. The Bills can't do that.

Hines’ playing time/production exacted a fifth round pick rather than a sixth from the Bills. The Bills have six picks in total now - one each in rounds one through six. Definitely not great for an important draft year. The picks are all late-round ones except for the fifth rounder, which is from AZ. I have to think they’ll try desperately to trade out of the late first for more picks unless a player they love at either WR or OL falls to them. .

And the outlet he writes for is effectively The New York Times' sports section now.

Agreed about Campbell. Would you rather have Edmunds at the high price he's listed at or the much cheaper Lavonte David for a the two-year deal he's listed at?

Beane actually said as much in the end-of-season press conference.

I wouldn't consider a fourth-round pick much of an "investment." That's what they got him for. They also traded a second for Corey Dillon, who arguably should be in the HOF given his numbers. He put up nearly 1,700 rushing yards in his first season there and they won the SB.

Bill Walsh drafted Montana, Rice, Lott, Craig, Haley, etc. etc. And he traded picks for Steve Young.

He defenses a LOT of passes. That's the same as tackling a RB at the LOS with the added benefit of making QBs being leery about throwing 20 yards downfield to the middle of the field if he's lurking in that region. He had 4 pass breakups vs. Miami. The only type of rookie with a higher upside than Edmunds is going to be a first or second round pick, and if the Bills are taking an off-ball LB with a first or second round pick, they're drafting very stupidly. I'd re-sign him given that I believe that he's a core component of this defense. People might not like the scheme, but you go to war with the army you have and he's a good soldier for this scheme. He is not perfect, of course, but they have bigger holes to fill.

Losing SBs is way more impressive than not reaching them. 7-3 in 10 games is way more impressive than both 7-0 and especially 4-0.

Comparing him to Seifert is ridiculous. Seifert took over one of the most talented teams of all time and Pederson took over a post-Chip Kelly team in disarray and a bottom-of-the-barrel Jax team. And he got fired because of Carson Wentz, who he stopped believing in. And he was correct. And Wentz has proven to be the ultimate coach killer.

And looks physically sharp out there. He's still fluid in his mobility and throws a great ball. I always thought he threw a great ball; he just was in bad situations and compounded that with too many terrible reads of the field. If you're a coach, he was a guy who was easy to lose faith in. He's gotten better on the mental side for sure, but the physical talent he showed this year was always there.

Re: the bolded, yes but: Houston's offense was pretty good (14th in yards, 13th in points, 7th in yards per drive, 8th in points per drive) and a defense is always going to give up some plays. Holding a good offense to 16 earned points on the road in regulation is a winning performance, and it's on the offense to score 20 points themselves. They couldn't do it despite scoring 3 times (13 points) on three of their first four possessions.

Doug Pederson’s teams have actually made the playoffs in 4 of the past 5 seasons and his postseason record is 5-3.

Allen played terribly in that game but got lucky. Houston DBs dropped multiple easy INTs.

I am going to push back HARD on your thin interpretation of the Houston playoff game. The D essentially gave up 16 points in regulation plus another three because Allen fumbled at midfield, which led to a FG after a defensive stop. Then, in OT, the Bills actually made a stop, forcing a punt. Then Cody Ford happened. And on the game-deciding play, Frazier made the perfect call with a Milano blitz. Milano had watson dead to rights and simply blew the tackle. That should have been a sack, full stop. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202001040htx.htm