dave mcbride

One does wonder if they lowballed him on the contract -- i.e., giving him an offer he could refuse. It's been 37 days since the end of the Bills' season, which is quite some time. But who really knows ...

Au contraire. The Panthers were absolutely dominant on D in 2013 and racked up 60 sacks. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/car/2013.htm

Also a horrible non-reversal on a clear fumble by the Colts on that last possession ...

https://bufbills.com/player-bios/bobby_babich.pdf

They were absolutely shredded by Indy. First time a team has lost in the postseason with over 450 yards and 0 turnovers.

He sorta kinda has! As @BADOLBILZ can tell you, he was the only player capable of running the overly complex Rex scheme from an on-field perspective, and he did it for years. Without him, Rex's defenses cratered.

Huh? Frazier already was a head coach for multiple years and made the playoffs one year with Christian Ponder at QB.

I thought the same.

Sean Payton has done this over the years. Go back and look at the leading rushers for his really good Saints teams starting with the 2009 SB-winning team.

Thinking about this. Here's a rough list of the most productive RBs of the past quarter century or so who had legit 3-5 year bursts, in no particular order: Priest Holmes (undrafted) Arian Foster (undrafted) Dalvin Cook (second round) Ezekiel Elliott (first round) Austin Ekeler (undrafted) Jonathan Taylor (second round) Christian McCaffrey (first round) Josh Jacobs (first round) Todd Gurley (first round) Aaron Jones (fifth round) Frank Gore (third round) Terrell Davis (sixth round) Shady (second round) Corey Dillon (second round) Derrick Henry (second round) Adrian Peterson (first round) Marshawn (first round) Le'Veon Bell (second round) Alvin Kamara (third round) Nick Chubb (second round) Chris Johnson (first round) Jamal Lewis (first round) Jamaal Charles (third round) Maurice Jones-Drew (second round) Stephen Jackson (first round) Ray Rice (second round) Michael Turner (fifth round) Thomas Jones (first round, but a late bloomer who did nothing for the team that drafted him) Ladanian Tomlinson (first round) Clinton Portis (second round) Brandon Jacobs (fourth round) Edgerrin James (first round) Warrick Dunn (first round) Willie Parker (undrafted) Fred Taylor (first round) Marshall Faulk (first round) Tiki Barber (second round) Deuce McAllister (first round) Ahman Green (third round) Shaun Alexander (first round) Larry Johnson (first round, but only two really good seasons) Curtis Martin (third round) Ricky Williams (first round) Stephen Davis (fourth round) Eddie George (first round) An interesting fact: most of the really productive backs were thriving in the 1998-2012 (or so) period. In 2021, there were only seven 1,000-yard rushers in a 17-game season (seven in 2015 too). In 2000 and 2006, there were 23 1,000-yard rushers in a 16-game season. There are some outliers (16 in 2019) but the general trend is decidedly downward over time. Also, the most productive backs do tend to be taken in rounds 1 and 2 (31 out of 45 here), although there are plenty of really productive players who were either drafted later or undrafted. There are also guys picked later who have 1-2 good seasons max but maybe that's all you need from them: i.e, Ahmad Bradshaw, who won two SBs and was drafted in the seventh round. He had 235 yards from scrimmage in the Giants' 2007 playoff run and a whopping 386 yards from scrimmage in their 2011 run. The really productive backs also tend to play on teams that are at least pretty good and which make the playoffs, but far more often than not those same teams that rely on highly productive RBs can't get over the hump in the postseason. There are a few exceptions: Terrell Davis (the greatest postseason runner in NFL history), Lynch in 2013, Faulk in 1999, Jamal Lewis in 2000, Ray Rice in 2012 (he had an elite year), Brandon Jacobs in 2007, and Corey Dillon in 2004.

A few successful screens REALLY increases your YAC numbers. The Bills are not a screen team, and Andy Reid offenses are generally pretty good at screens.

Interesting (I believe you) because as I recall the draft profile of him was that he would be excellent in zone and was a good tackler. Now we also know that he’s an elite info processor, which if you add it up spells “McDermott system CB.” But perhaps there were some physical traits that threw him off. As for the SB, every defensive player seemed to have a bad game — probably because they were playing on the equivalent of an ice rink, which disfavors people who have to react (defenders).

He was excellent in the postseason and started all 11 games he was healthy for. He was better, although Elam was decent himself after a rough start. Regardless, I fully believe the bills wanted mcduffie because he has the perfect set of mental and physical traits to play a relatively complex matchup zone scheme. Why do you think the chiefs traded ahead of the bills?

Interesting piece in The Athletic. Note that if you subscribe to the NYT, you get the Athletic now; otherwise you have to pay for it or it’s paywalled. https://theathletic.com/4226466/2023/02/24/nfl-quarterbacks-s2-cognition-test/ It’s about the S2 cognition test. Key quote (regarding Josh Allen): ’He couldn’t give out Purdy’s exact score because it’s privileged information but said it was in the “mid 90s.” That’s about where Brees, the former Saints quarterback famous for lightning-fast decision-making, scored and where two of the top passers in the league now, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Bills’ Josh Allen, also landed. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow took the test while at LSU and agreed to allow S2 to disclose the information. Of course he did — he scored in the 97th percentile.’ Also: ’The highest S2 score in last year’s draft class, in fact, was turned in by a cornerback, Trent McDuffie, who started 15 games for the Chiefs, including the Super Bowl.’ I remain convinced that the Bills really wanted McDuffie but were beaten to the punch by KC. In desperation (not a criticism!), they then moved up to get the last round-one quality CB, Elam. KC moved ahead of the Bills by trading their 50th pick to NE. McDuffie is obviously a better player at this point than Elam, but it’s early. His test results suggest he’ll be a very good player provided he stays healthy.

I forgot how good of a player he was: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JohnCh01.htm

OJ's 1975 season was significantly better than his 1973 season: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SimpO.00.htm. Note the assigned AV numbers. More yards from scrimmage, more yards per touch, far more TDs, and a slightly lower fumble rate. 15.2 yards per reception for a running back is of-the-charts great.

Wagner will be 33 in June, grew up in LA. Not sure Buffalo weather will appeal to him. He was PFF's highest rated LB for the 2022 season, which is great, but he hasn't been part of anything but mediocre to moderately below average defenses since 2017. I know Seattle has had secondary problems, which suggests to me that great LBs can't make up for problematic secondary play or a weak pass rush. The running backs of the defense, as it were.

I think Bruce had a significantly better season in 1996 than in 1990. He had fewer sacks, but IIRC he set the NFL record at the time for pressures (I think 47) by a wide margin and was a terror vs. the run--much better than in his earlier years. He was utterly unblockable that season. The Bills' defense was better in 1996 than in 1990 too. Note that PFR assigned him an AV of 21 in 1996 and an AV of 17 in 1990. He won defensive player of the year both years. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitBr00.htm The Bills as a team had 48 sacks in 1996 and 43 in 1990. Bruce opened more up for more players in 1996. The Bills made it to the playoffs in 1974: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/1974.htm

The Bills have have put up 5 above-average defensive performances in the postseason under McDermott/Frazier and 4 bad ones. Let’s not exaggerate.

Anyone who says he is bad at drafting has to at least mention that he drafted Josh Allen, who will arguably be the best player in franchise history when it’s all said and done. And he wasn’t served up to the Bills on a platter. Beane had to be really creative to get in position to take him. Everything else is secondary. If you read the piece, you’ll see that the Browns have so much rollover in cap space that the Watson contract isn’t particularly onerous for them.

Have at it: https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/02/22/top-quarterback-contracts-salary-cap-misconception-space

Beasley and John Brown were good signings. They also got one quite good year out of Daryl Williams (no more than that, though). I'd also argue that Da'quon Jones' season this year was elite. He was hugely missed vs Cincy.

Shady weighs in and what he says sounds plausible to me: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/02/21/lesean-mccoy-im-rooting-for-eric-bieniemy-but-he-had-nothing-to-do-with-chiefs-pass-game/

I am thinking Bears too, but they could have simply paid Roquan, though. The Giants make sense too. What about the Seahawks? They desperately need help in pass D, and he's an elite pass defender for a LB: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

Just looking at his stats, the trajectory is upward: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JeudJe00.htm. 67 percent catch rate and 9.7 yards per target is really good. Gabe Davis was 51 percent and 9 yards per target; Diggs was 9.3. Also, Wilson had a passer rating of 110 when throwing his way. I'm starting to like this idea ... EDIT: Jeudy was 9th in the league in yards gained per target: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/receiving.htm#receiving::rec_yds_per_g