dave mcbride

Not arguing about this. I’m just speaking about the injury prone-ness issue.

My concern about Hopkins is that he might be a repeat of Julio Jones: flat-out dominant player who turned into a #3 receiver a couple of seasons ago after finally starting to get dinged up in Atlanta: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneJu02.htm AJ Green is another comp: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GreeA.00.htm. Remember when Bills fans were champing at the bit to get Green in 2020? Good thing they didn’t. He became a shadow of his pre-2019 self after his injury. Eric Moulds is also a guy who turned into a possession receiver at the age of around 30 and after tearing his hamstring in OT vs Cincy early in the 2003 season. He was never the same afterward. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MoulEr00.htm There are a lot of elite receivers who began getting leg injuries around age 30-31 and then settled into being non-threatening so-so possession receivers afterwards. Andre Reed is a case in point — tore his hamstring vs the Jets early in the 1995 season (when he was looking great) and was never really the same afterward. Andre Johnson was another. (A lot of these guys seem to find their way to the Titans and Ravens.) And Lee Evans. And Chad Ochocinco. Point is, I suspect a lot of teams are wary of overpaying for past production.

He was dinged up a bunch this past season and my sense is that you and @Simon are basically right away the injury risk he presents. I also think his pec injury affected his play vs Cincy and late in the season more generally (he was wearing a harness IIRC). Numerically speaking, though, he didn’t miss a game until the 2022 season and still managed to play 13 out of 17. He has played in all 8 playoff games too. He’s played in 70 out of 74 possible games including the postseason. Just about all players have spells of missing a few games here and there over a four-year period, especially linemen. So it’s not as if he’s missing time at a high rate. Indeed, it’s a pretty low rate, relatively speaking. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/O/OlivEd00.htm Anyway, factoring in how often players get hurt in the NFL, his numbers so far don’t suggest he’s too much of an injury risk. But maybe things have been building up and that’ll change. Hope not.

Yeah, but: he's also throwing around terms like "from the neck up" and "process very quickly," "understanding," and "nuances," which are all very clearly comments on his mental approach (or lack thereof). To be fair, it might be completely true, but rarely do you see a coach call out a player in this way to a reporter. Maybe it's meant to be motivational, and I don't doubt it might work with some (not all) players when it's done in private. But to do it publicly? That's the sort of thing that may well come up in contract negotiations with other teams next year, and if I were Oliver or his agent, I'd be pretty PO'd.

He’s saying he’s basically a moron (or at least plays like a moron on the football field).

,“Just continue to play the game as much as possible from the neck up. When you have the kind of talent Ed has, you have to understand situations that could mean the difference between separating yourself from the opponent (and saying), ‘I have to able to process very, very quickly so I can win my one-on-one so I can play ahead of the play as opposed to playing with the sequence of that particular play.’ “With Ed, from an experience standpoint, we need him to play ahead as opposed to with the tempo of the play so (understanding) situations, certain nuances with certain calls and understanding where he can take advantage based on his position (is important).” Hooboy. And wow. And yikes. Reading between the words isn’t required to interrupt what Washington was saying, right? Understanding situations … Process very, very quickly. … Play ahead of the play. If it reads to you as if Washington wants Oliver to do more video study and be more committed to during-the-week preparation in order to perform better in games – that was 100% my lean once I transcribed the quote.’ https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/ryan-ohalloran-to-hear-bills-tell-it-ed-olivers-final-chance-to-earn-long-term/article_cc3f0636-009a-11ee-8d28-c3fb3d9ee3df.html

Yeah, agreed about the Central. Here's what I feel confident about with regard to teams in that division: Cincy: Excellent team with an elite qb, but since every team in that division is pretty good (at least), I can see a 10-7/11-6 season. Pitt: History pretty much shows that they will win at least 9 games. They'll be better than last season, so let's give them 10-7. Baltimore: They will win at least 10 games. I could easily see them winning the division too. Cleveland: If Watson steps up his game, they could win the division and go 11-6. It's certainly in the realm of the plausible. They have a really good roster overall and just need the QB to come through. I won't be surprised if he plays pretty well either. Last year, four of their first 5 losses were by a total of 9 points (all of them agonizing losses and with Brissett at QB), and then at 2-5 I just think the wheels came off. Incidentally, Amari Cooper looked to me like he was playing the best football of his career last season. They brought in Jim Schwartz to coordinate the D too, and he's obviously good.

Yep. The Searchers by far is his best performance and it is a truly amazing movie. Her performance in the remake of True Grit — which I think is a LOT better than the original — was mesmerizing.

No, they did not.

They were never teammates. Lawson’s first year at clemson was 2013 and hopkins’ final year there was 2012.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/bill-obrien-deandre-hopkins-relationship-timeline-patriots-trade

They actually lost their only playoff game in 2017, 10-3.

Also, in 15 post season games, he had 69 catches for 1,062 yards and 7 TDs. Those were great single-season numbers for a receiver in that era.

Terrell Davis played in 8 postseason games and had 1,140 yards, 5.6 ypc, and 12 touchdowns -- all vs the toughest competition. Extrapolated to a full 16 game season, it becomes 2,280 yards and 24 touchdowns -- which would be the greatest rushing season ever. And he won a SB MVP. The NFL rightly rewards postseason greatness because it's all about winning championships, after all. It's better than the MLB system, which downplays postseason numbers.

If I had to pick one play that lost the Bills that game, it's at the 0:45 mark here. Allen did nothing wrong; Saffold was beaten like a drum and forced JA into an off target throw that should have been a huge gain. Before you know it, it was 14-0 and it was clear that the Bills' D had no answers. Don't blame Allen for that loss even though he didn't have a great game. .

The other thing I'd say about all of this is that there's the height that's listed and the height that's inclusive of reach. Hakeem Olajuwon was 6'10" but was effectively taller than a number of 7-foot centers because his arms were so goddamn long. Wingspan/reach is key when thinking about a player's true playing height.

Good post. As for gambling on guys with that upside but modest stats, I give you https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/dk-metcalf-1.html.

Stevie Johnson and TJ Houshmandzedah (sp?) were both 6'2" -- not giants, of course, but still reasonably tall. They were very productive for decent stretches. Both were 7th rounders. TO was a big, big guy and was drafted late in the 3rd. It's not the fifth, but he way overperformed his draft slot. Also, Brandon Marshall - 6'4" and drafted in the 4th round. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MarsBr00.htm

Recap: it sucks.

Yes, very easy to search. 36th among ALL defensive players is great. However, the player who gave up the highest rating in the entire league? Yikes - Damar Hamlin. 142.3 rating against him. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/defense_advanced.htm (for others who are interested, sort by the rating tab). Yeah, sometimes we just say things.

Edit: the rating against Wallace was actually 73.0 and the completion rate against him was 53.2 percent. That is a good season by any standard. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WallLe00.htm

74.6 is actually great. An 80 passer rating is the new Mendoza line and the very best defenses generally have overall team defense passer ratings in the mid-70s. The collective passer rating against SF's defense last year was 82.7.

He also dropped a pass in the Vikings game on the Bills' final drive but the refs didn't review the call due to the Bills hustling to get the next play off (it was ruled a catch on the field even though it wasn't). And on the pick Allen threw in his own end in the first Jets game, I'd bet a lot of money that Davis ran the wrong route. Allen threw it in the opposite direction from which he turned. The next time they ran that play a game or two after that, he ran to the opposite spot of where he ran in the Jets game.

OJ's biggest weakness was fumbling -- he was a fumbling machine. He had 62 fumbles on 2,607 touches. By way of comparison, Frank Gore had 46 fumbles on 4,219 touches. Emmit Smith had 61 fumbles on 4,924 touches. Marshall Faulk had 36 fumbles on 3,503 touches. As you may know, McDermott is highly allergic to fumblers.

As I've said elsewhere, I expect Miller to be basically fine, health-wise.