dave mcbride

Oh please. I know a lot of people who went to Berkeley. None care. I think they’re reasonably representative too.

Cal is by most measures one of the five best research universities in the world (as is Stanford). They don't need a name-brand football conference to thrive. I doubt they care that much. Sports isn't something that Berkeley lives or dies by.

Absolutely, it's about the four game separated shoulder type-injury stretch, and these guys are really terrible. You want a guy like Charlie Batch in the veteran stage of his career. He wasn't very good, but he could manage a game. The Steelers went 6-3 in the games he started between 2005 and 2012. If Allen were to go down early for the full season, though, I'd almost prefer that they ended up with a top five draft pick so that they could take whichever version of Jamarr Chase is available in the subsequent year's draft. Agree about Davis Mills. He gives off serious competent backup vet QB vibes.

Yeah, saw that. He paints a very positive portrait of Rousseau and says he's grown into his frame. Didn't realize that he just turned 23.

He had 1 catch for 13 yards, actually: https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=AB5stBgf0GINVPUfAORxZWXJPLuYjJ_Xmg:1691422471875&q=Montreal+Alouettes&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgVuLQz9U3yLIoLlzEKuSbn1dSlJqYo-CYk1-aWlKSWgwAdbAgQiEAAAA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj_lufc78qAAxXKElkFHTPhBtQQMXoECBsQAg&biw=1920&bih=931&dpr=1#sie=m;/g/11k3_sq8zr;6;/m/0fnw5;tb2;fp;1;;;. Overall, he's having a decent season - 29 catches for 435 yards and 15 ypc through 8 games. Basically, nearly the exact same numbers per game as Gabe Davis last season: https://www.footballdb.com/players/dhaquille-williams-willidh01

I have always said that you want a backup that get an otherwise good team to 2-2 over a four-game stretch. Mitch Trubisky was that guy. For a full season though? If Josh Allen goes down for a full season, the Bills would be well and rightly f**ked. He is like Manning in that sense — he is the offense and literally everything revolves his elite skill set. Also, while I appreciate the the instances of effective substitutions that you mention above, I can’t help but think you’re having an “Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?” moment. By that I mean you’re missing the argument ender of all argument enders in this domain: a certain Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr. In the year of our lord 2001.

https://twitter.com/PFF_Sam/status/197235934272552960?lang=en

No doubt. I'm just responding to this line: "He batted .000 in that regard in 2021 and 2022."

DaQuon Jones was a helluva player last year. He had the best season of his career judging from PFF, PFR's AV, and the ol' eyeball test.

He absolutely shredded the Pats and Jaguar defenses in the first two games of the 2003 season. I remember those games well, so I'm not simply relying on stats. He was uncoverable.

Disagree, strongly, about the dating here. He struggled to get open after he tore his hamstring early in the 2003 season (at the end of game 5 in OT vs Cincy). At the beginning of that season, he looked the best he ever did. In the first two games of that year he had 11 catches for 214 yards. He had a dud vs Miami in game 3, but so did everyone - the offense got stomped and was held to 118 total yards. Against Philly and Cincy, though, he had 17 catches for 213 yards. He was uncoverable that year through five games: on pace for 99 catches and 1462 yards. It would have been on a par more or less with his 1998 season. Then the hamstring tear happened and he looked like had sand in his joints the rest of his career. As for 2001, the team was so bad and the QBs so bad that he really suffered, stat wise. The Bills only had 18 TD passes that season vs. 20 INTs. The collective passer rating for the team was an abysmal 74.7.

It’d be interesting to compare the advanced stats of Davis with Alvin Harper (and Diggs with Irvin during that same time period) and correcting for the change in rules.

Both players in that trade from last year -- Moss and Hines -- suffered bad injuries very close to each other time-wise.

Um, you gotta root for the defensive players too, you know ...

I'm just pointing out that he got more targets yesterday than on the days before. I'm not judging the player one way or the other.

https://theathletic.com/4733725/2023/07/30/buffalo-bills-training-camp-4/ Davis far more involved Sunday while making a standout play Over the previous two practices, starting receiver Gabe Davis took a backseat on target count during team drills, but on Sunday, he was targeted more often than at any other practice this summer. Davis brought in a pair of passes on four targets from Allen, with Allen attempting only 17 passes during Sunday’s 11-on-11 work. Davis made an outstanding catch over cornerback Tre’Davious White’s head early in practice. White was turned around on the play trying to play the receiver rather than the ball, and Davis timed his jump perfectly to make the grab. Davis also was merely a few inches away from finding the end zone on his other two targets. On the first, Davis was in the back corner of the end zone with separation from Dane Jackson and turned his body toward the ball to stay in bounds. The on-target throw from Allen needed a last-ditch effort from Jackson to knock the ball out of Davis’ hands at the catch point, but the ball fell incomplete. Then to end the practice, Davis uncovered wide open to the left sideline of the end zone, and Allen put the ball on the money. Davis got his first foot in bounds, but the second barely tapped the line during the catch, making it an incomplete pass — regardless of the offense’s celebration. Regardless of the incompletions, it was a good sign for Davis to uncover and find himself in those big play opportunities after being quiet during the previous two practices.

Tell that to Jonathan Taylor. The Indy line was good, but his elite abilities led to him creating a ton of yardage on his own too in that game.

Some tidbits on Milano: First, in terms of passer rating against defensive players, he was 13th best in the entire NFL last season, and that includes all CBs and safeties: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/defense_advanced.htm. QBs had only a 62.6 rating against him (sort the page by passer rating). Secondly, in PFR's equivalent of WAR/VORP for the NFL -- AV (approximate value) -- Milano was rated a 19 last season. That was third overall: Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts tied for first at 20, and Milano was tied for third at 19 with Mahomes. Bottom line: he is ELITE. Finally, https://theathletic.com/4727127/2023/07/28/nfl-draft-franchise-defensive-players/ (great piece overall, but paywalled; I'm including the bit on Milano): 'Let’s finish with the second level of defense: linebackers and slot defenders. On the former, what does it take to succeed at that position in the modern game? On the latter, what kind of nickel defender do you prefer: a third corner, safety or off-ball linebacker? Baumgardner: We don’t have a Luke Kuechly playing right now, I don’t think. Closest to that would be San Francisco 49ers LB Fred Warner — no disrespect to Bobby Wagner, who is still getting it done. Another guy I love is Bills standout Matt Milano. The thing all these guys have in common is that they are coverage assets. It’s so hard to find guys who can take the physical burden you’re asking in the box while maintaining stamina and focus to be functional coverage players. This position, to me, is as mental as any on the field. Its offensive counterpart today is more tight end than running back. There’s a lot going on, so on top of being athletic enough, the player has to be insanely dependable from an IQ standpoint.'

Paywalled, but very good if you have access. They do it over the course of a bunch of articles (defense, qb, etc.). I feel like the Bills follow this logic pretty closely, with the exception being that Spencer Brown is too tall for their ideal OT. And judging from his game, I think they are right to worry about players of that height. good stuff about TEs, the importance of interior line versatility, X and Z receivers, and RBs. https://theathletic.com/4717969/2023/07/26/nfl-draft-franchise-offensive-players/ ‘What are your physical preferences for an offensive tackle, and what do you want from athletic and mental standpoints? Lee: I’m a devotee of the bigger-faster-stronger model — physical archetypes exist at certain positions for good reason. If you don’t clear 6-foot-4, I’m placing an asterisk by your file (and if you’re 6-8, I’m worried, too). If your arm length is shorter than 33.5 inches, you better have some special athletic traits and film, otherwise I’ll be expecting you to play guard in the NFL. I’m a bit more forgiving with weight thresholds, because I’m measuring it against your explosiveness and agility scores. If you clear 305 pounds, it’s all good with me. … Baumgardner: Ideally, I’d like an OT to have 34-inch arms but 33 is an acceptable floor. Anything below 33 would require some type of elite agility/burst combination and/or an elite football IQ. My height floor would be 6-4 and — like Diante — anything above 6-7 makes me nervous.’ EDIT: For the coaching article, I thought this was interesting given that the Bills drafted Terrel Bernard (Baylor) in the third round last year: ‘One more, from the college ranks: Dave Aranda at Baylor. We know that schematically, much of his playbook is inspired by the kind of 3-4 defense we’re seeing increase in popularity. He also aided in the development of several NFL players, many being linebackers he worked with directly. His offense at Baylor mixes the college-style spread with some professional passing concepts. He’s maximized his roster and improved every program he’s been at. It’s still a bit early in Aranda’s career to make this big a leap, but expect his name to generate more and more interest in the coming years.’ https://theathletic.com/4681445/2023/07/17/nfl-ownership-franchise-head-coach-selection/

Who were the Giants’ receivers last season again? A fair argument could be made that they had the least talented receiving corps in the league. His fifth year hasn’t started yet either. More generally, C.B., you strike me as a death-or-glory sort of evaluator when it comes to QBs — they’re either great or suck. You said this about Derek Carr for years. You say it about Tannehill. I think you said it about Jimmy G too. Maybe Cousins as well. Yet the truth is that the world is mostly shades of gray rather than black and white, and guys like these are all decent-but-not-elite QBs who on average tend to win more than they lose. They’re in that range of 12-18 in terms of ranking — ie, not horrible and definitely more valuable than any one particular running back. And most of these guys got better over time because of experience. Also, they have all been better than the QBs the Bills trotted out from the 2000 benching of Flutie to the arrival of Josh Allen.

Good post. They do have better weapons this season and a better overall roster, so we’ll see who he really is this year. People do get better as they get more experience. Also, with regard to his arm, it’s actually pretty decent. It’s not Allen-level, but it’s Tua/Tannehill/Goff level. (Goff, btw, had a sneakily good season last year.) He is widely regarded as a good athlete with excellent size.

I personally think Jones is on a path to be a better-than-average QB. He has gotten better over time and had the lowest interception rate in the NFL last season to go along with a 67.2 percent completion rate and 22 total TDs. His QBR of 60.8 was pretty strong too, assuming people put stock in that (his passer rating was 92.5, which was above average -- his rating-plus was 104, with 100 being league average). The Giants' receiving corps was also abjectly terrible last season.

In 2021, he was sixth in the NFL in terms of passer rating of opposing QBs against him -- 55.8 (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/defense_advanced.htm). In 2022, the rating against him was 86.1, which was a little above average (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/defense_advanced.htm). In 2020, his rookie season, he was at 85.8, which was in the top third of the league (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/defense_advanced.htm). Bottom line: he's a good player who can make game changing plays. He does get beat, but so does everyone who plays CB in the NFL. He's without question above average. Jordan Poyer was second in the league in 2021 and eighth in 2022. Pretty darn impressive given how banged up he was last season.

And also a very low positional franchise tag number as a consequence.

I think this might explain the appeal of Evans to the Bills: "Awesome ball security; no fumbles in his 2019 tape" (https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2883751-darrynton-evans-nfl-draft-2020-scouting-report-for-tennessee-titans-pick). The Bills really RB prioritize ball security and punish backs with a propensity to fumble. Cook fumbled on his first play, was relegated to the bench for a while, and didn't fumble again last season. TJ Yeldon fumbled inside the red zone a couple of years ago and basically disappeared for a long stretch. There is a common theme in the guys the Bills have brought in this offseason to play RB: Harris, who has a 0.6 percent career fumble rate, and Murray, who has a 0.58 percent career fumble rate. Murray's fumble rate from 2017-2022 over 1,069 touches was 0.28 percent. Those are very low rates. Singletary's career fumble rate is 1.6 percent. Melvin Gordon's is 1.4 percent, and I've always regarded him as an inveterate fumbler. Incidentally, OJ Simpson's career fumble rate was a sky-high 2.4 percent.