dave mcbride

After yesterday's performance, it's looking like the Bills will be getting a 5th rounder ...

I am not talking about his comments; I'm talking about measurable facts.

I don't disagree with your assessment of his play, but it's not true that scouts were high on him because of his pass rushing ability. They liked him for other reasons, but I think those reasons amounted to "second-third round reasons." The Bills overdrafted him, just like Denver overdrafted Ayers. If you're going to draft a DE in round one, they should be have the physical talent to present a real pass rushing threat.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. In 2016, Watkins either didn't finish a number of games, or was on a pitch count because of the foot. Hence his target numbers were necessarily down on a per game average. Same goes for 2015, when he left 2 games early (Miami and Cincinnati).

That wasn't his perceived strength. Virtually every scouting report highlights his run d and says he might struggle as a pass rusher. EDIT: Start here -- http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/shaq-lawson?id=2555252

He was drafted for Ryan's 3-4 scheme in which DEs set the edge. He was essentially the anti-Mario - a player whose game was run D and setting the edge; his stoutness would also allow the pass rushers behind him to get to the QB. He is miscast in this new scheme and is basically a black hole on pass rushing plays. He's not horrible, but he plays like a mid-third rounder. I strongly suspect that Ryan was the force behind this pick given the Clemson connection. If there is one comparison, I'd say it's Robert Ayers. Ayers was drafted 18th overall and people raved about his ability to play the run coming out of Tennessee. They also projected that he'd evolve into a good pass rusher, which never really happened. He's decent, but not great. I suspect that Lawson's career will end up like his. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AyerRo99.htm

I'll stand by what I said earlier: the Bills had to win last night if they were to make the playoffs. I know that sounds extreme, and no one would be happier than me if I turn out to be wrong, but I look at their upcoming schedule and think, "ugh." Payton has coached against the Bills twice and absolutely destroyed them. He also played against McDermott defenses in Carolina 10 times, and averaged 27 points per game against them. Carolina won 6 out of those ten, but basically couldn't stop Brees except on two occasions. EDIT: As DC in Philly, McDermott faced Payton's Saints once, and the Philly D gave up 48 points. So in 11 faceoffs against Payton, McDermott's defenses have given up an average of 29 points.

His rating was at 109.8 before garbage time. He went down by a point after that.

DE G LB with pass rush ability DT QB speed WR Third CB TE

they were down by 3 at halftime because of a pretty inexcusable fumble by Matthews. It should have been 10-10.

Yup, although I do think that the way this team is currently built, they're going to outperform their talent level when playing at home. The rah-rah stuff actually does seem to be an asset in Orchard Park. On the road, though, it's useless, and can't cover up the talent deficit. Let's not forget that they were gifted a defensive TD on an absolutely terrible call in Atlanta.

The Bills against the Saints during the drought: 0-4. Scores: 24-6, 19-7, 27-7, and 35-17.

I will say this: the Jets are better than I anticipated. I live in NY and see a lot of them, and they've been in every game except for the Raiders and first Bills games. They could easily be 6-3.

2008, Week 8: The 5-2 Bills are destroyed, 26-17 (it was worse than the score indicates), by the Jets. The Bills turn it over 3 times, Edwards is sacked 5 times, and the Bills accumulate under 300 yards of offense. 2011, Week 8: The 5-2 Bills are destroyed, 27-11, by the Jets. The Bills were down 27-3 until they scored a garbage time TD with a couple of minutes to go. 3 turnovers for the Bills, and the Bills accumulate under 300 yards of offense. 2017, Week 8: The 5-2 Bills are destroyed, 34-21, by the Jets. The Bills scored two garbage time TDs in the last four minutes. 3 turnovers by the Bills, and Taylor is sacked seven times. Due to a stellar garbage time performance, however (onside kick recovery!), they manage to accumulate 307 yards. In 2008 and and 2011, complete meltdowns ensued after the losses to the Jets. (And don't get me started on the second Jets game of 2008--the Losman fumble game.)

Yowch! People need to stop blaming TT for the sacks, at least for this game. 17 jailbreaks - my god.

Agreed - he actually escaped 2 or 3 that would have brought down any other QB.

Absolutely true. I think the reason they looked so good is because they were possessed by the ghosts of Kris Jenkins circa 2008 and David Harris/Mo Wilkerson/Calvin Pace in 2011. They were stomped in the latter game, behind 27-3 until a garbage time TD with a couple of minutes to go.

That was 2011. There was also 2008: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200811020buf.htm- the Kris Jenkins game. The Bills are now 0-3 when 5-2 and facing the Jets in week 8 in the last decade.

He had plenty of completions on intermediate throws last night before garbage time, and many of those were in tight windows. Plus his completion rate was very high. The jailbreaks, fumbles and running game failures doomed the offense.

This isn't an evidence-based argument. The QB is important, to be sure, but it doesn't begin and end with him. Football is the ultimate team game. Taylor played well enough to win a 21-17 game provided the Bills D held up its end (it didn't). Twice his receivers fumbled in FG territory, after all. I watched the game closely, and I watched jailbreak after jailbreak, with no one on the Bills line capable of handling superior talents like Leonard Williams or Mo Wilkerson. Hence the pocket collapsed almost instantaneously on far too many occasions. There is nothing a QB can do about that if a play design is to push the ball down the field. And just look at the first play of the game - that was an instance of the Bills being completely outschemed. It destroyed a possession.

Excellent post.

Not to excuse the gameplan, but sometimes they face off against better players. I don't care what the sack totals for the Jets' d-line are; they have a couple of monsters, one of whom - Leonard Williams - is significantly better and more talented than o-lineman on the Bills.

As I imply above, I don't a lot of Bills fans realize how good Leonard Williams actually is. Wilkerson is a longtime Bills killer too.

100 percent correct.

Please - on many of those sack plays, the designs were for deeper passes. Dennison was outschemed all night.