dave mcbride

If the Bills are 8-7 going in, it won't be meaningless because a 9-7 team should get in. The AFC is very lopsided this year. The top is good, but the rest of it is quite poor. If Miami is out of it (and I expect they will be in week 17), that's obviously good for the Bills.

In my opinion, it'll come down to Buffalo, TN, and the Ravens. Miami is a bad team and I'm discounting them. Jax is likely to win either 11 or 12 games based upon their remaining cream puff schedule. I think TN wins 9 or 10; their final game against Jax may be meaningless to Jax because they'll have clinched yet still not have a chance at a bye. As I said in another thread, the Baltimore game against Detroit is huge. If Baltimore wins, I see them getting to 9-7, and if they lose, I see them at 8-8. One and possibly two 9-7 teams should get in.

The Bills have struggled mightily in Miami of late. Re the Pats DVOA, we both know that it'll be higher at the end of the season. They're likely to win 13 games -- and they still might not get a bye! If they lose to Pitt (the only game I see them losing the rest of the way), they're going to lose out to a 13-3 Chiefs team (who has a RIDICULOUSLY easy schedule the rest of the way) and Pitt based on head to head.

The Saints are a flat-out better team with a better coach (not that McDermott is bad!), and in 11 games against McDermott defenses, the Saints have averaged 29 points. The Bills are 0-4 against NO this century and were destroyed the last two times they played them (with Brees carving them up with ease). I expect a loss, but of course on any given Sunday ... The Chargers game will be huge.

The Bills have four probable losses coming up (NO, NE twice, and KC), two probable victories (Miami and Indy at home), and two tossups. I think 9-7 gets in this season, but I also think that there will be 3 contenders for two 9-7 slots. We really need Detroit to beat Baltimore in Baltimore, but that game is a real tossup. If Baltimore wins, I think they get to 9-7 based upon a pretty easy schedule. I think TN ends up either 10-6 or 9-7; it may be the case that Jax, which I think will win 11 or 12 games, may rest everyone in week 17 against TN given that they'll have the division clinched with 11 wins (they have a ridiculously easy schedule going forward). I also think that NE, Pitt, and KC all win 13 games. Anyway, it may come down to conference records for Baltimore and Buffalo. I have the Bills going 7-5 in conference assuming they beat the Chargers and Miami on the road. If the Ravens beat Detroit, they'll go 7-5 according to my predictions. Not sure what the next tiebreaker is ...

I don't know if it was merited; lots of elite talents complain about lack of touches, and he wasn't that bad about it. Frankly, I don't care that much either. I think it's a manufactured controversy, truth be told. That stuff doesn't matter to me much.

You're asking me to make a value judgment, which I'm not going to to do. I'm merely responding to posted stats that don't factor in game contexts that skew the numbers. If you're going to post numbers like that, add context.

After yesterday's performance, it's looking like the Bills will be getting a 5th rounder ...

I am not talking about his comments; I'm talking about measurable facts.

I don't disagree with your assessment of his play, but it's not true that scouts were high on him because of his pass rushing ability. They liked him for other reasons, but I think those reasons amounted to "second-third round reasons." The Bills overdrafted him, just like Denver overdrafted Ayers. If you're going to draft a DE in round one, they should be have the physical talent to present a real pass rushing threat.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. In 2016, Watkins either didn't finish a number of games, or was on a pitch count because of the foot. Hence his target numbers were necessarily down on a per game average. Same goes for 2015, when he left 2 games early (Miami and Cincinnati).

That wasn't his perceived strength. Virtually every scouting report highlights his run d and says he might struggle as a pass rusher. EDIT: Start here -- http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/shaq-lawson?id=2555252

He was drafted for Ryan's 3-4 scheme in which DEs set the edge. He was essentially the anti-Mario - a player whose game was run D and setting the edge; his stoutness would also allow the pass rushers behind him to get to the QB. He is miscast in this new scheme and is basically a black hole on pass rushing plays. He's not horrible, but he plays like a mid-third rounder. I strongly suspect that Ryan was the force behind this pick given the Clemson connection. If there is one comparison, I'd say it's Robert Ayers. Ayers was drafted 18th overall and people raved about his ability to play the run coming out of Tennessee. They also projected that he'd evolve into a good pass rusher, which never really happened. He's decent, but not great. I suspect that Lawson's career will end up like his. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AyerRo99.htm

I'll stand by what I said earlier: the Bills had to win last night if they were to make the playoffs. I know that sounds extreme, and no one would be happier than me if I turn out to be wrong, but I look at their upcoming schedule and think, "ugh." Payton has coached against the Bills twice and absolutely destroyed them. He also played against McDermott defenses in Carolina 10 times, and averaged 27 points per game against them. Carolina won 6 out of those ten, but basically couldn't stop Brees except on two occasions. EDIT: As DC in Philly, McDermott faced Payton's Saints once, and the Philly D gave up 48 points. So in 11 faceoffs against Payton, McDermott's defenses have given up an average of 29 points.

His rating was at 109.8 before garbage time. He went down by a point after that.

DE G LB with pass rush ability DT QB speed WR Third CB TE

they were down by 3 at halftime because of a pretty inexcusable fumble by Matthews. It should have been 10-10.

Yup, although I do think that the way this team is currently built, they're going to outperform their talent level when playing at home. The rah-rah stuff actually does seem to be an asset in Orchard Park. On the road, though, it's useless, and can't cover up the talent deficit. Let's not forget that they were gifted a defensive TD on an absolutely terrible call in Atlanta.

The Bills against the Saints during the drought: 0-4. Scores: 24-6, 19-7, 27-7, and 35-17.

I will say this: the Jets are better than I anticipated. I live in NY and see a lot of them, and they've been in every game except for the Raiders and first Bills games. They could easily be 6-3.

2008, Week 8: The 5-2 Bills are destroyed, 26-17 (it was worse than the score indicates), by the Jets. The Bills turn it over 3 times, Edwards is sacked 5 times, and the Bills accumulate under 300 yards of offense. 2011, Week 8: The 5-2 Bills are destroyed, 27-11, by the Jets. The Bills were down 27-3 until they scored a garbage time TD with a couple of minutes to go. 3 turnovers for the Bills, and the Bills accumulate under 300 yards of offense. 2017, Week 8: The 5-2 Bills are destroyed, 34-21, by the Jets. The Bills scored two garbage time TDs in the last four minutes. 3 turnovers by the Bills, and Taylor is sacked seven times. Due to a stellar garbage time performance, however (onside kick recovery!), they manage to accumulate 307 yards. In 2008 and and 2011, complete meltdowns ensued after the losses to the Jets. (And don't get me started on the second Jets game of 2008--the Losman fumble game.)

Yowch! People need to stop blaming TT for the sacks, at least for this game. 17 jailbreaks - my god.

Agreed - he actually escaped 2 or 3 that would have brought down any other QB.

Absolutely true. I think the reason they looked so good is because they were possessed by the ghosts of Kris Jenkins circa 2008 and David Harris/Mo Wilkerson/Calvin Pace in 2011. They were stomped in the latter game, behind 27-3 until a garbage time TD with a couple of minutes to go.

That was 2011. There was also 2008: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200811020buf.htm- the Kris Jenkins game. The Bills are now 0-3 when 5-2 and facing the Jets in week 8 in the last decade.