dave mcbride

True, but Eli could fall of the cliff any day now. He might not, but it's certainly plausible. He is an OK qb now on his good days, and often pretty bad. I know the situation was bad last year, but still.

The only logical explanation for taking a RB over a QB in that situation -- i.e., getting the #2 pick in a great QB draft while currently relying on an aging, average QB -- is if they really believe in Davis Webb. They may. I thought he was good in college. But I've never gotten the sense that the Giants are big believers in him. If they aren't, what they did makes zero sense from a long-term franchise-building perspective. Sam Darnold is good, and he was right there for them.

I remember reading a piece years ago (which I wish I could find!) demonstrating that DEs often had their prime years between 29 and 33 because they had learned the tricks of the trade. Hughes was 100 times better than Lawson last season. He basically won the Atlanta game for Buffalo.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/27/giants-gm-analytics-saying-not-to-draft-a-running-back-are-nonsense-a-crock/ '“You know what I say about that. It is a crock. At the end of the day, a great player is a great player. He is a touchdown maker. He is a threat to take it to the house every time he gets his hands on the ball,” Gettleman said. “I think a lot of that stuff is nonsense. I think it is someone who had decided to get into the analytics of it and went through whatever. Jonathan Stewart is in his 10th year and he has not lost anything. I don’t believe in that. I don’t care who you take, they can all get hurt.”' His test case, Jonathan Stewart (selected 13th overall) is ... decidedly an average JAG: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StewJo00.htm I can't believe the Giants didn't go QB.

Hughes had one of his best seasons last year.

Allen: 4.75 40. Mallett: 5.37 40. What a lazy comparison.

There are seven rounds and the Bills have 8 picks: 1 in the top ten of the first; 1 super-early 2nd rounder (so early it's in the mid first round!); 1 in the third, 1 in the fourth, 2 in the fifth, 1 in the sixth, and 1 in the seventh. They have a full complement of picks and then some.

He was really a first round pick because that actually matters for Favre was Green Bay. They traded the 19th overall pick for a guy who showed nothing in his rookie season.

Well, he did basically say that the 2013 QB class sucked. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000147694/article/mike-mayock-ej-manuel-secondbest-qb-in-nfl-draft. EJ was kinda like a one-eyed man in the kingdom of the blind.

Ryan Mallett comes to mind when I hear "great big Jethro QB" (great term!). Allen is by all accounts a good, mobile athlete, though: 4.75 40, which is REALLY good for someone that size. Mallett was 5.37!

As I've said elsewhere, he seems to have some of the traits of a narcissist.

No, I'm not. I'm referring specifically to the stated knocks on him coming out of college. His accuracy issues were mentioned ('area code accuracy'), but they weren't regarded as his his biggest weaknesses. Interestingly, though, EJ was measured at 6'5", 237 lbs, and a 10 3/8" handsize. Allen is 6'5", 237 lbs, and has a 10 1/8" hand size. Pretty eerie. Been there and done that! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kübler-Ross_model I bargained at 11 pm, went to bed depressed, and am now at the acceptance stage.

I agree, and don't think I'm not worried. But the players around you do matter. Wyoming had terrible talent this year. EJ Manuel, who is not accurate, was a career 67 percent passer at FSU (with a high ypa) because passing to an offense filled with future NFL players meant that someone was ALWAYS open. It's hard to judge, basically. That said, the completion pct stat has historically been a pretty good heuristic for predicting future success. There are always outliers, though, and let's hope he's one of them. I don't it's going too far to say that as a package - size/arm strength/athleticism/tested intelligence - he's arguably the most impressive QB specimen to come along this century. I realize that this is no guarantee that he'll be any good, but the oddness of his case makes me willing to defer judgment.

I thought he was clear in that he said it's about throwing to a spot. Sometimes the receiver doesn't get there because he sucks or runs the wrong route; sometimes he drops it; sometimes he's well covered because he's not strong/fast enough.

As to your point, watch what Dilfer says about this: This isn't really true at all. He was actually quite accurate in college (68.0% in his senior year; 66.9% overall). The knock was that he was a slow processor and only used one side of the field. Moreover, he was hard to assess because he played on a team absolutely loaded with future NFL players, and someone was ALWAYS open.

Great link; thanks.

Looking back in time to what I'll term football's lost half-decade with regard to the QB position (2006-2010), the percentage of people who fail at the position is really sobering. 25 QBs were drafted in the first three rounds over this five-year period, and only three panned out: Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and to a lesser extent Joe Flacco. 22 out of 25 (88 percent) can only be considered outright busts or at best disappointments (Cutler and Bradford are in the latter category; the rest are all failures). Of the seven drafted in the top 10, two are franchise QBs, 1 is a disappointment, and 4 are busts. The only franchise QB drafted outside the top 10 is Flacco, and he's really only a quasi-franchise QB. 2006: 1 - Vince Young 1 - Matt Leinart 1 - Cutler 2 - Kellen Clemens 2 - Tarvaris Jackson 3 - Charlie Whitehurst 3 - Brodie Croyle 2007: 1 - Jamarcus Russell 1 - Brady Quinn 2 - Kevin Kolb 2 - John Beck 2 - Drew Stanton 3 - Trent Edwards 2008: 1 - Matt Ryan 1 - Joe Flacco 2 - Brian Brohm 2 - Chad Henne 3 - Kevin O'Connell 2009: 1 - Matthew Stafford 1 - Mark Sanchez 2 - Pat White 2010: 1 - Sam Bradford 1 - Tim Tebow 2 - Jimmy Clausen 3 - Colt McCoy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kübler-Ross_model

Yup; the Browns really need a CB and they are pretty well set at pass rusher.

Shouldn't you add Tyrod to this list? Seriously.

Good points. What's especially interesting to me about watching Allen going forward is the huge split over him. On one side are the scouts, gms, pro personnel guys, and media guys in that orbit (Mayock, Gil Brandt, even Kiper) who deal with the human beings in college football (coaches, players, etc.) as part of their jobs on a near-daily basis, and on the other are the sabremetric types who run the numbers but don't really deal with the human element. The "football guys" love Allen almost to a person, yet the number crunchers -- again, almost to a person -- think he's a bust waiting to happen based on the metrics they use and the past success of such metrics. Who will be right? Who knows. But I do think it's the case that Allen may prove to be a bit of an outlier because he is quite literally the best specimen drafted at the QB position in this century, with only Roethlisberger coming close. The combination of arm strength, athleticism, massive physique, and extremely high wonderlic score (36) are unmatched, no? That doesn't mean he's going to be good, but I just can't accept running some Kyle Boller numbers and making predictions based off of that.

Good post, but I must confess that I've come around to the idea that Rosen is in fact an a-hole (ironically, through all of the media he's done recently to prove he's not one plus his ridiculous comments last night). He may be great, but he may also be Cutler Mach II.

I like Rosen. I would have been thrilled if the Bills had taken him. But his ridiculously childish-cum-WWE-level trash talking reaction confirms (at least to me) what I said last week: this guy has some serious narcissism issues. I mean that.

I'm no longer upset and have decided to just roll with it. My approach going forward is to treat Allen as an interesting experiment given the very real huge upside. I'm gonna try and make it fun for myself regardless of the outcome. Maybe he'll be great; who really knows.

My wife will watch up until they draft a qb, but then she's out.