dave mcbride

As Hapless pointed out earlier, he may well have hurt the UCL in the GB game, and it was just a matter of time before a big throw worsened it. Who really knows, though ... See Hapless's earlier post about the GB game. Regardless, he has a UCL injury of some sort. That appears to be undebatable. It's not a bone bruise or anything like that. Which may be why McDermott was as livid as I've ever seen him. He was apoplectic after that shot. It may well prove to be "not serious" (and that's what I'm hoping for, obviously), but if you think the Bills are going to say that it's serious at this point, well ... As you know, teams seriously under-report and downgrade the seriousness of injuries, and for good reasons. Re: curveballs (and I know I'm getting off-topic a little): https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/sports/baseball/debate-grows-over-how-to-protect-young-pitching-arms.html. It's overuse, not the type of pitch, that's the real culprit.

This will never happen because the Eagles aren't stupid enough to trade a good backup qb, but Smallwood was FO's lowest rated RB last week. Just sayin'. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2018/week-6-quick-reads

Regardless, it is not debatable that an MLB shortstop makes more high stress throws than a QB. All of those guys starting at the MLB level are guys who can throw 95, and they throw as hard as they can on many plays. My larger point, if you look above, is that a QB isn't an MLB pitcher and I honestly don't think the recovery time should be 15 months as it is for MLB pitchers. They just don't throw that much or nearly that hard.

My point is that middle infielders also throw all of the time too. They take fielding practice most days of the week. I have no idea who throws more over the course of a season, but given that the baseball season is longer (especially for non-playoff teams), I suspect that middle infielders might throw more. But at the end of the day, it's probably a wash.

If Allen has any sort of tear in his UCL, the Bills should shelve him.

baseball players throw the ball literally all the time when they're not playing on the field. And they literally have practice most days before night games. I guess my point is that they both throw it a lot, although MLB shortstops make far more higher stress throws. That's not up for debate. Regardless of this discussion, if there is any sort of tear, the Bills should put him on the shelf and make him get the surgery (and if I'm Allen, I'm demanding that I get it). The last thing they need is a situation like Tannehill or Luck or RG III - guys who played while injured, which ended up making the situation a whole lot worse. He's not going to accomplish anything this year anyway with this garbage offensive roster.

EDIT: http://riveraveblues.com/2018/10/thoughts-following-didi-gregorius-tommy-john-surgery-179974/ "The typical Tommy John surgery rehab timetable is 6-9 months for position players but that does vary by player and position. Catchers need more rehab time than outfielders, for example. Gleyber Torres had his Tommy John surgery in June and was more or less ready to go by January, though he had surgery on his non-throwing elbow, which is a different animal. Gregorius needs surgery on his throwing elbow. Jay Jaffe did some digging and found that middle infielders who had Tommy John surgery on their throwing elbow missed ten months, on average. That puts Gregorius on track to return next August. Tony Womack returned in six months. Rafael Furcal was out 15 months. Mets utility man T.J. Rivera had Tommy John surgery last September and missed the entire 2018 season with setbacks and whatnot. There’s a wide range of possible outcomes here. Point is, no one really know when Gregorius will be back. There is a chance — a pretty good chance, really — he will play next season. Possibly even as early as May or June. That seems to be the best case scenario."

He throws 3-4 times between innings every inning! He also averages 375 assists per year not including preseason etc. NFL QBs average around 450 throws per full season. Not much difference, and they don't throw it as hard as an MLB shortstop.

I don't buy this. It's a 15 month recovery time for pitchers, but it's 9-10 months for position players. Didi Gregorius, who we just learned is getting Tommy John surgery, is expected back in 9-10 months, putting him on the field in roughly August. Gregorius throws it harder (he regularly hits low 90s on his throws to first) and more often than Allen. Exactly. He looked absolutely dejected. I think this could be right. He was actually pretty darn accurate vs. Minnesota and late vs. SD, but he lost his accuracy in the GB game. The first thing that goes with UCL injuries is accuracy, and he was not accurate vs GB or against TN on deeper throws (and yes, I know he had accuracy issues already). Bear in mind also that he was a pitcher in HS and was throwing low 90s then. Plus he was lighting up the radar gun all offseason to boost his draft stock. Wear and tear is how these injuries happen.

My understanding, which may be off, is that mariota had a nerve issue in the area and not a tear or sprain of the ligament Totally different sports, but if there’s any qb who throws with the violence of an mlb baseball pitcher, it is allen. It is what he brings to table.

Yes, and given what I know about ucl tears in baseball, surgery is a strong likelihood. Tanaka is the real outlier for partial tears; most get the surgery. And even he sat for 3 months while getting platelet therapy. As I understand it, sprains are usually actually partial tears and they don't "heal." I bet he gets the surgery. My son (pitcher) had a sprain and couldn't throw a baseball at all for 5 months last winter. when I was watching him on Sunday, i saw him focusing on his forearm and he seemed to be shaking it to find feeling. Plus his first throw after the hit was wild. Numbness in the forearm and wildness are the clear signs of ucl issues.

The Bills D was not responsible for 10 points scored yesterday - the pick 6 and the Moore fumble, which was basically an automatic 3 points (the Texans scored 7). That stuff matters w/regard to points allowed, which can be a deceiving state.

With a hat tip to GG, who inspired me to look it up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petermann_Island. It looks like a very lonely place. (I actually mostly like McDermott, but this is such a crazy hill to die on.)

Two things can be true: defense can be actively discouraged AND athletes can be better now than they were 30 years ago (and they are definitely better now).

You literally can say that about any team in the league. There are holds and illegal blocks on almost every return play in the NFL. Whether they get called or not is a matter of dumb luck. Also, with regard to "every single week," are you referring to this season only or the past 4.5 years?

He has also overseen units that are above league average the last four seasons. How are fumbles by players the fault of a coach?

I think this is basically right, but what I focus on is judging Peterman on preseason games. McCarron is actually a serviceable backup and has proven it in real-live NFL games. Preseason performances can only tell you so much, especially at the QB position when defenses are very vanilla. They should have realized that, but they learned the hard way that Peterman is the same guy they put out on the field in real games last year (outside of garbage time v. New Orleans, which was basically a preseason level game by that point).

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/209965-a-few-thoughts-about-the-texans-game-in-no-particular-order/?page=4&tab=comments#comment-5395053

Crossman's STs have performed above the league average over the four-year stretch prior to this season. Their average rank has been 12th. ( https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst2017 ). He's not the problem.

I can't remember a game in which the Bills had tons of penalties on ST (above the norm, I mean) before yesterday. And when was the last time a Bills punt was blocked? They were 10th in ST DVOA last season, btw. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst2017. They were 4th in 2014, 12th in 2015, and 22nd in 2016. Over a four-year stretch through 2017, they've averaged 12th overall, and the median is 11.

Ferragamo was bad for the Bills, but he also qb'd in a Super Bowl, and in 1980 his team went 11-4 when he started and he threw 30 TDs, 19 INTs, and averaged 7.9 YPA.

It simply shows how important it is to have a decent backup. Osweiler has won some games before and has a bright (and long) future ahead of him as guy who can get you to 2-2 when your QB goes down for a stretch. The Bills desperately need a guy like that. They really screwed the pooch in FA last year because they were unwilling to pay the going rate for one. There were options out there beyond McCarron (who they should have never traded anyway). http://walterfootball.com/freeagents2018QB.php

No way is a smart organization trading a competent backup. The Bills are example A of a team with no backup. Ideally, you want a guy with some experience who can get you to 2-2 over a 4-game stretch. Not sure you watched Osweiler yesterday, but he's becoming that guy. Next year, who is going to be available? It'll be one of the most important signings the Bills make (or don't make), yet it won't get enough attention. Frank Reich wasn't great, but he was massively important to the Bills' success in that era. Dare I say it: bring Tyrod back next season? I have to think he knows his days as a starter are over, and that perhaps it's time for the next phase of his career: 5-6 more years as an experienced backup. (The pay is good too.) Anyway, as a backup he'd be ideal. He "respects the ball" like no other and can get you to 2-2 over a four-game stretch.

I think it's less than a 50-50 chance because there are always some fumbles that roll out of bounds (and hence "no one" actually recovers). If I had to guess, I'd say that happens about 15 percent of the time.

Exactly. Crossman isn't coaching players to fumble and fail to block. Leave him out of this. He's fine as a ST coach.