dave mcbride

OK, here goes. This is for the postseason only because I want to focus on good teams, and just for games in the past 25 years, going back to the 1994 season (i can't find game logs from 1995 and earlier). I've bolded the winners who got the ball first and won, and bolded and underlined the teams that got the ball first and scored on the opening drive. 1998 -ATL/MN: Minnesota gets ball first but ATL eventually wins. 2000: Miami/Indy: Miami gets ball first, but doesn't score; Indy misses a FG; Miami then scores and wins. 2001: NE/Oakland: NE gets ball first and scores; wins on first possession. 2002: TN/Pitts: TN gets ball first and scores; wins on first possession. 2003 - GB/SEA: Seattle gets ball first, but GB wins. 2003: Carolina/STL: Carolina gets ball first but doesn't score; eventually wins in double OT 2003: GB/Philly: Philly gets ball first but doesn't score; eventually wins on second possession after a Favre INT. 2004 - SD/Jets; SD gets ball first; but Jets win (SD misses a FG on their second possession). 2006 - Chi/Seattle: Seattle gets ball first but doesn't score; Bears win. 2007 - GB/NYG: Packers get ball first but turn it over; Giants win. 2008 - SD/Colts: SD gets ball first; scores on first drive and wins. 2009 - GB/AZ: GB gets ball first; strip sacked fumble return TD for AZ; AZ wins 2009: NO/MN: Saints get ball first and score on first drive; win. 2011 - Den/Pitt: Den gets ball first; score on first play from scrimmage and win. 2011 - NYG/SF: Giants get ball first but don't score; they do eventually win, however. 2012: Den/Bal: Ravens get ball first but don't score; eventually win in double OT. 2014: Seattle/GB: Seahawks get ball first and score on opening possession to win. 2015: AZ/GB: Arizona gets the ball first and scores on first possession; wins. 2016 - NE/ATL: NE gets ball first and scores on opening drive to win. 2018: NE/KC: NE gets ball first and scores on opening drive to win. 2018: NO/LA: NO gets ball first but LA wins. -- My takeaways: 1) In four of the last five postseason games, the team that won the toss scored on their first possession. There's a trend going on of late. Perhaps it's a function of the recent rule changes that favor the offense? 2) The overall record of teams that get the ball first is 14-7. This is important because by starting first and going last, it means they get an extra possession -- always one more than their opponent. In the last 9 OT playoff games, 8 of the teams that received the ball first won. 3) In 9 out of 21 games, the team that won the toss won on their first possession alone. That is a REALLY high rate.

Agreed.

I just disagree with this. It's all well and good to say "win the game decisively," but as it happens all final four teams were really good this year and there were no walkaways on offer. The Rams were 13-3 and dominant at many times this season. Plus they are probably the most star-heavy team in the league on both sides of the ball. This wasn't a game against the Bills or the Arizona Cardinals. Exactly. He basically said he had no idea where the ball was because he was beaten so badly. An INT wasn't ever in the cards.

The picture of the brace combined with the description of what likely has happened so far on the surgery front is gruesome.

The problem is that against good offenses, defenses are at a serious disadvantage because they're flat out exhausted. Does it matter in a Bills/Arizona Cardinals game? Not so much. However, when the Pats are the opponent - a team that constantly runs a TON of offensive plays in regulation (roughly 85 plays going into OT vs both Atlanta and KC, btw) -- the coin flip win gives them a huge advantage. I know that the Saints lost, but I believe that in most games involving playoff teams with good QBs/offenses, losing the coin flip puts you at a serious disadvantage to the point where it increases the likelihood that you'll lose.

That wasn't a muff. It was the right decision to overturn it. There was not the slightest alteration in the ball's trajectory while in air at any point. Anyway, they turned it over 2 plays later and the Chiefs got the ball at roughly the same point. They then scored a TD with ease.

Every other one has, and 8 is a pretty huge sample size ...

Who knows. Based on 8 pieces of evidence, we can be reasonably sure of one thing—the game will go down to the wire. Say what you will about the Pats, but they always give you an exciting game in the Super Bowl. It’s been 8 straight good, close games, and I don’t expect that to change.

On the drive where the Rams tied it 20-20, there was in fact a pretty obvious facemask on goff that wasn’t called that probably cost LA 4 points. This isn’t to excuse the NRC call, which literally decided the game and was therefore more important (and more blatant).

This won't be an argument ender to what is a really stupid argument, but it should be!

Not true. He actually had a long and solid career. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/ParrJo20.htm He started for that Raiders team that went to the 2002 SB.

That’s fair. I just worry that a lot of folks here are highly susceptible to Terrence Pennington-itis when it comes to lauding rookies simply because they actually made it onto the field for sustained periods of time. Teller played on a truly abysmal offense, after all.

I wouldn't put Teller on the list. He only played because the other options were terrible, and he actually struggled a lot much of the time he was out there. The jury is way out on him.

Always appreciate you insight. I did some searching and came across this thread on a falcons board. Thoughts? https://boards.atlantafalcons.com/topic/4067311-ot-jawaan-taylor/

PS: The two teams who choked at home in the final game of the season and hence missed the playoffs -- the Vikings and Titans -- had one constant: they lost to the Bills. It was clearly a sign that they weren't good enough!

The Bills played 7 games against playoff teams: the Pats twice, the Ravens, the Bears, the Chargers, the Texans, and the Colts. They were curb-stomped in every one of those games except against the Texans, but they mitigated for that by losing in epically pathetic fashion.

? - Lombardi won five championships as head coach, just like Belichick has. He also won a championship as OC of the Giants and would have won a second if not for Alan Ameche's score in OT in "the greatest game ever played." Bear in mind that he also died way too young, from cancer, at age 57.

He was one of my favorite old-time stat lines ever - in the 1968 AFL championship game against the Jets, which the Raiders lost 27-23 after the Jets came from behind late with a Namath TD pass to Maynard, he was 20-47 --- but still threw for 401 yards! That's 20 yards per completion!

Daryle Lamonica and it's not even remotely debatable. He is literally one of the best QBs of his era, and he sat on the bench in Buffalo before being traded for a box of rocks (i.e., Tom Flores).

Why higher than Haskins, if you don't mind my asking? Haskins' production was off-the-charts great.

But who are the QBs in this draft outside of the Ohio State guy? Last year their were legit blue chip prospects.

How so? There are only a couple of qbs remotely worthy of a top ten pick, and if 6 teams (or even 4, if I'm conservative) are out of the QB game and want to trade down, where does that leave Buffalo w/regard to a potential trade down? If teams want a QB, they will be willing to move up. Last year proved that.

Kirby: you said alabama players (plural) were rookie starters for the Bills who were backups at alabama. That’s what I was responding to.

There are six teams in front of the Bills that probably won't be drafting QBs (AZ, NYJ, SF, Raiders, TB, and Detroit), so I wouldn't get too excited here.

He didn't beat them; the defense did. Watson was actually terrible in that game. I watched it. Well, his NFL.com draft profile says he was the starter, and he played all the time. Christ, he led the team in pass breakups. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/levi-wallace?id=32462018-0002-5599-37dc-f8dc32c7ecf3