dave mcbride

I think Jackson is excellent and one of the best, but the playoff thing is real and the sample size is now large enough: 2-4 record; 57.4 completion percentage, 6 TDs, 6 INTs, 3 rushing TDs, 3 lost fumbles, a 75.7 passer rating, and an ungodly 11.8 percent sack rate. (9/9 TD to turnover rate) Allen, on the other hand: 5-5 record; 64.6 completion rate; 21 TDs, 4 INTs, a 100.0 passer rating, 5 rushing TDs, 1 receiving TD, 2 lost fumbles, and a 5.7 percent sack rate. (27/6 TD to turnover rate) The playoffs really matter.

It literally cost them the Eagles game this season.

He averaged 13 yards per reception (on 8 catches) in the two playoff games (which, I keep trying to remind people, are the most important games and should not be left out of any reasonable conversation on stats).

Yes, that's exactly it - assuming Kincaid stays healthy, I predict he'll have around 100/100+ catches. Huh? I think the passing offense will run through Kincaid primarily (and it'll be a more controlled passing game), and I also think that Coleman will be better at winning jump ball situations than Davis. That alone will lead to a couple fewer INts.

7 in 9 games including postseason, which are the most important games and should be included. That rate is 13 games over a 17 game season (he was on a 17 INT pace under Dorsey - 10 in 10 games). I just have a hunch that he's committed to being more careful with the ball this season. That hunch is based in part not on any evidence, but my sense that he's gotta be sick of the narrative and that he's talented and smart enough to overcome it. He had 10 INTs in 2020 (and 37 TDs). We'll see, of course.

Prediction for 2024 - Allen throws 10 INTs max.

Yeah, and they only lost to the Dolphins in 2022 because Tua hit Waddle on a bomb on third and long where he split the starting safeties -- Jaquon Johnson and Damar Hamlin (!) -- who were basically lost on that play.

Let's not forget that Lamb is a cousin of Keon.

The Cardinals were 4-13 last season with the 31st-ranked defense in the league. The Bills have no business losing at home to them on September 8. Regardless of the fact that it's the opener, I think everyone can agree that this is one of those games the Bills HAVE to win given the overall schedule. Losing to a crappy organization like AZ with Josh Allen at home isn't acceptable.

Definitely not on the Dolphins. The Miami org has a ton of respect for Allen given his repeated shredding of them.

I can't see the Bills even thinking about trading Elam. They need more than three competent CBs (it's the NFL, after all), and given his athleticism and the fact that he seems to have turned a corner, he's extremely valuable to them. There will be injuries -- there always are. Watching teams with really bad CB situations is generally painful to watch. It's considered a premier position for a reason.

Interesting comments in the piece on Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers dropped into Tier 2 for the first time in 11 Tiers appearances after suffering a torn Achilles tendon last season. Some thought this was ridiculous. “Were the guys that did not put Rodgers in Tier 1 from the 29 teams whose offenses would be better with him instead of their current QBs?” one voter protested. Only Mahomes, Burrow and Allen commanded more Tier 1 votes than the 23 for Rodgers. But with seven votes in Tier 3 and two in Tier 4, Rodgers slipped from the elite ranks. “Maybe he falls off,” an offensive coach placing Rodgers in Tier 1 said. “I just know the last time I saw him play, he can carry it. I’m going off that.” Not everyone thought Rodgers was playing so well when he finished in Green Bay. “You go back and watch those first four plays before he got hurt, he did not look good,” a head coach placing Rodgers in Tier 3 said. “He looks old. If they can’t protect him and they can’t run the football, it’ll be just what you saw late stages in Green Bay. He became ineffective. I’m looking at what he is, not who he is.” A voter whose team practiced against the Jets last summer said he thought Rodgers appeared “fragile” and might not last five games this season. The Achilles injury and Rodgers’ age (he turns 41 in December) created uncertainty. No player in Tiers history has rated as high as Rodgers did this year while getting votes in Tier 4. “The complaint in Green Bay was he did not have the receiver help he needed as he got older,” another voter said. “You cannot say that now with what they have around him on the Jets. If we get a Rodgers year where the Jets are back in playoffs and winning playoff games, that’s just what happens when you have a Tier 1 quarterback.” From the piece: The 43 Tier 1 votes for Burrow are six fewer than he received last year after his latest injury, which required surgery on his throwing wrist, amplified durability concerns. “You love everything about him, but at some point, physically, his body is going to fail,” a defensive coach who has faced Burrow multiple times said. Burrow’s confidence is one of his most endearing qualities. “He is a cool, calm, collected, confident version of Kirk Cousins,” another coach said. “He might have a little better arm strength, but the skill set is very similar, except Burrow is not an overthinker. He just has this confidence that he’s right, and he throws with that purpose and that confidence, and normally, he is right.” Injuries cost Burrow six games as a rookie (knee) and seven last season (calf). “He is definitely a 1,” a head coach said. “He is an accurate, touch passer with anticipation, but they gotta be careful. He is getting hurt on his throwing arm. You have injuries to your legs like he’s had, that will affect your arm. I’m curious to see how the ball comes off his hand this year.”

I wonder if it's the same person who said he was overrated (there's a long thread devoted to that comment). In thinking about who might have said that, I am thinking about two teams that he has historically been pretty meh against: the Jets and the Bengals. He's had a couple of good games vs the Jets over the years, but he's had a lot forgettable performances too. Going back to 2019, he hasn't looked especially good vs the Bengals either, and he didn't play well at all in the January 2023 playoff game against them. So maybe from one of those teams?

I personally had a metaphorical front-row seat to the 52-17 Super Bowl. Through luck and living in the right place at the right time, I had a seat 20 rows in at the 40 yard line, right behind Ted Danson and Whoopi Goldberg. I distinctly recall the choreographed rushing to the stage of 30 or so small children during Michael Jackson's halftime set. Good times.

Correction: they had the frontiest of front row seats to one other dynasty in the past 30 or so years: the 1990s Dallas Cowboys.

Huh? Did you watch the Apple series? Kraft himself said that the relationship was "totally dysfunctional" by the end, and it had a lot more to do with interpersonal dynamics than the lack of receivers.

Yet Tom Brady eventually got so fed up with that style that he wanted to get the hell out of NE. Brady said somewhat similar things about BB after his exit (although he didn't call Belichick a terrible person).

Yet he performed like the all pro that he was while here. He helped take the Bills' passing offense to new heights, and there was certainly no guarantee a rookie under control would have ever approached that level of production. I don't know why Bills fans have a hard time conceiving of Diggs as a highly successful first round draft pick, because that's how he performed. As for the money, you pay for high-end talent in the NFL, and that's what he was. He averaged 111 catches for 1,343 yards and 9+ TDs per season while here. It's the best four-year stretch for a receiver in Bills history.

You’re forgetting the first round pick, who turned out to be a multi-time all pro.

The Tyler Bass struggles continue The Bills might have a brewing problem with kicker Tyler Bass. Against the Steelers, Bass nailed all three of his attempts, which was a much-needed confidence boost, even if the attempts were only from 27, 26 and 31. The internal hope had to be that it was the start of Bass turning it around as they near the regular season. Things have not gone according to plan. Over the last two practices, Bass has made 8 of his 14 attempts in team drills, which is not ideal but doesn’t sound as bad as when you dig deeper into those numbers. Bass went a perfect 3-for-3 from under 35 yards, with hits from 33, 28 and 33 yards out. But when Bass tried from 40 yards or longer, he was only 5-of-11. He went 3-of-6 on those kicks on Tuesday and 2-of-5 on Wednesday. The makes were from 43, 47, 44, 40 and 48 yards. The misses were from 47, 47, 44, 42, 42 and 40 yards. Bass did not attempt a single field goal that was at least 50 yards long. On both days, general manager Brandon Beane went on the field around 30-40 yards directly behind Bass to get a good view of each kick. The struggles have not been new, having persisted most of training camp. And now only two weeks out of the regular season, the Bills have the dilemma of what to do with a struggling kicker who has a dead cap hit of $4.32 million this year if they cut him, with an extra $3 plus million in dead cap added to 2025 if that’s the route they take. The Bills will likely have to keep Bass because of his contract. But with all these struggles, unless things change, don’t be surprised if they prioritize signing a kicker to the practice squad in a week. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5715301/2024/08/21/buffalo-bills-practice-cole-bishop-mike-edwards-tyler-bass/

Meh ... Allen had a first-quarter rating of 78.0 last season and a third-quarter rating of 75.8 in 2022. Everyone has some variation across quarters. Seems like a weak basis to criticize him. I go back to the terrible defenses and head coaching he's had to suffer through. Brandon Staley is an idiot as a head coach. https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2023/12/14/24000764/brandon-staley-chargers-blown-leads-retrospective

I think it’s the team he has been on more than anything else. Bad head coaching and bad defense has been the biggest determinant in people’s takes on him.

no, none of the ones just announced are.

None of these new injuries are muscle injuries.

Yes, agreed. A lot of people don't realize it, but turf toe is actually a torn ligament in the toe. It's a bad injury because you use your toes for basically everything involving forward/lateral/backward movement and jumping.