dave mcbride

He's definitely not following the TB12 method!

There is no one way to do it right, but it does seem to be the case that getting early round talent -- whether you drafted them or another team did -- is one of the keys to success. You may have to pay a fair bit in FA for another team's first rounder, but it's typically a pretty safe investment.

You are arguing like a lawyer. My larger point is that good teams invest in offensive lines, and that really good offensive linemen who consistently produce tend to be early-round investments more often than not. Moreover, 25 percent of the Patriots' last 12 first round picks have been offensive linemen. Rather than repeating, ad nauseum, "Patriots 2018, Patriots 2018, Patriots 2018," why not engage the broader argument and larger context? The top teams in offensive DVOA mostly invested heavily in offensive line: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2018 . NE did in fact have a first rounder on their o-line in both their 2014 and 2016 SB seasons too. That is correct.

You are quite wrong in the global sense. See above.

Um ... don't look at just the Pats. Look at the other playoff teams this year (plus Pittsburgh): NO's o-line: 2 first rounders, 1 second rounder, two thirds KC: 2 first rounders, 2 second rounders, and a UDFA LAR: 3 second rounders, 1 sixth rounder, and 1 seventh rounder Chicago: 1 first, 2 seconds, 1 fourth, and 1 seventh Dallas: 2 firsts, 1 second, 1 fourth, and La'el Collins, a first round talent Philly: 2 firsts (they traded a first for Peters), 2 thirds, 1 sixth Seattle: 3 firsts, 1 second, and 1 seventh Baltimore: 1 first, 2 thirds, 1 fourth, and a UDFA Indy: 3 firsts, 1 second, and 1 fourth LAC: 2 firsts, 2 thirds, and a sixth Hou: 1 second, 1 fourth, 1 fifth, 1 sixth, and a UDFA (NOTE: HOUSTON STANDS OUT BECAUSE THEIR LINE WAS AWFUL AND BASICALLY COST THEM A BYE) *Pitt: 2 firsts and 3 UDFAs (*(I'm including them here because a) they had an elite offense, b) are almost always in the playoffs, and c) lost only 6 games) So, basically, you're not correct.

In the previous five seasons before this last one, the Cardinals went 49-30-1. They did pretty well (or at least decently) of late until this past season.

The thinking I've come across is that if you're going to go all in on Murray, get a backup like Brett Hundley who can play that style of game too (Arizona is reportedly sniffing around Hundley). The last thing you want is two qbs for whom you need to design wildly different offenses. Anyway, Kingsbury is gonna run his system regardless, and Rosen just isn't a fit for it. The best thing that could happen to Rosen might be going to Washington, which runs a pocket passer offense and has a very talented o-line.

Right. He'll be sitting behind Colt McCoy and be given every opportunity to surpass him.

People keep bringing up Flutie's shortness, but Flutie was actually darn good for the Bills overall. If he had been in the NFL during his CFL prime, his career would be remembered a lot differently. He was genuinely incredible in the CFL, and today's NFL wouldn't have let him linger there. Factoring in the just give it to 'em game as a Bills win, which I always do, and the Indy game after he took over for RJ after the second play, the Bills were 23-8 in games Flutie started.

Wendell started on that 2014 Super Bowl winning team. He played 100 percent of the snaps that postseason (v. Baltimore, Indy, and Seattle).

Yep, I was about to post this. See the quotes from the Peter King column above. No one is giving up a first rounder for Rosen.

Metcalf (1.6 percent body fat, which strikes me as unhealthy) looks like a guy who might be more interested in being Mr. Universe than a polished NFL WR. That concerns me.

Interesting fact: the Bills haven’t drafted an Ole Miss player since 1976. And while I try to never judge a player based on the school he went to, I do think that Ole Miss players tend to have a pretty high fail rate (relatively speaking) in the pros. LaQuon Treadwell was another Ole Miss specimen who had route running issues coming out of college. He has been a real disappointment so far. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ole_Miss_Rebels_in_the_NFL_Draft Allen was very good in college. He took over a terrible 2-win team and got that team to bowl games twice.

He measured 5’10 1/8” at th conbine. Wilson is 5’11”.

It's certainly an interesting "what if?" situation. It is definitely true that Smith was true believer in Rivers, and he ran the show. Marty liked Brees, to be sure, but Smith ran the show. History has proven both to be right. Their stats are nearly identical (outside of straight-up counting stats). In playoff games, Brees is 8-7 and Rivers is 5-6; The Chargers have won 57 percent of their games with Rivers, and the Saints 59 percent with Brees; Brees' passer rating is 97.7 lifetime and Rivers' rating is 95.6; and Brees has a lifetime advanced passer rating of 115 to Rivers' 112 (100 being league average; by way of comparison, Roethlisberger is 110 and Brady 116). Brees has had better offensive coaching and suffered far less organizational chaos, so it's a bit of a wash overall.

No, they were absolutely going to trade Brees because AJ Smith was all in on Rivers, who he drafted. As you may recall, they started Brees the final game of the season but they were already out of it (at 9-6), and that's the game he injured his shoulder in. It was a VERY controversial move at the time, and people ripped Schottenheimer for not thinking about the big picture. Starting him that game blew up in their face, and they ended up getting nothing for Brees. His contract was up, but they could have tagged and traded him. This was the game - it was week 17 of the 2005 season. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200512310sdg.htm Here's a backgrounder, but it's wrong about who they would have kept: https://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2010/2/8/1301176/why-did-the-chargers-let-drew As Brees himself said, ""Did A.J. draft me? No," Brees said. "Did A.J. draft Philip? Enough said." http://legacy.decaturdaily.com/decaturdaily/sports/060311/brees.shtml

What do you think will happen? I really think AZ takes Murray, but I've been wrong a lot ...

But McCloughan was a central player in two of the best QB draft picks in the last decade: Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield. He's not some schmo in a basement!

Excellent comp.

I think you may be wrong about this one, GB. Excellent post. I agree. If you don't believe in the QB you have, and if you have the #1 overall pick, and if there is a draftable QB that you truly believe in, you draft that QB.

If they truly believe another guy this year is better, then you treat Rosen as a sunk cost and take the QB who you think is more likely to get you to the promised land. Don't waste a #1 overall on a non-QB assuming you actually believe in one of the QBs in the draft. #1 overall picks don't come around very often, and if you don't really believe in Rosen, cut bait now. Everyone needs to bear in mind that the Cardinals were reportedly crestfallen that they couldn't get past the Bills to land Josh Allen, who they loved.

Scott McCloughan disagrees with this line of thought, and he's a damn good evaluator -- one of the best. He says Haskins is the next Byron Leftwich to a T! @YoloinOhio -- thoughts on this? https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/02/28/kyler-murray-height-best-quarterback-scot-mccloughan

This is a more detailed report - https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2019/02/28/character-coach-jack-easterby-leaving-patriots/Znf0ex9WtMLOorfUOM1fCN/story.html

Ever since I began watching him play, Jones has reminded me of another second rounder who put up massive college numbers: Alex Van *****. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Van_Dyke. Van ***** produced like crazy in college, but had the same questions about size/speed/get-off-the-jam ability surrounding him that Jones has. PS - I see that the last part of AVD's last name has been censored! Wow. I feel bad for the Dick Van ***** fans on this board ...

Catch rates are always lower for guys who run deeper routes (and Christ, RBs usually have catch rates between 75 and 80 percent). Jones doesn't run many deep routes.