dave mcbride

He absolutely had 10 in 2014. There was a misattribution of a sack in the final game against the Pats, but the official scorers ultimately (and correctly) credited him with the half-sack (he was the lead guy on the sack). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HughJe99.htm and http://www.nfl.com/player/jerryhughes/496796/profile. ESPN is wrong. Here's the box score: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201412280nwe.htm.

This is correct. The Bills' Pythagorean record last year (as per PFR) was 5.0-11.0. They were basically worse than their record.

I get that, but at the margins points scored and allowed depends to an extent on field position starts, ST play, turnovers given up or causes by the other unit, etc. And then there’s strength of schedule — not every team is lucky enough to be the Patriots and get an automatic 6 games against perpetually inferior organizations. DVOA does a good job of washing away all that noise, which is why I like it.

I thnk that’s right up to a point, but I also think that a larger percentage of parents now than in the past see sports as a ticket to their kid’s life success, and they plan and shape accordingly. It has always been bad, but I do think it IS crazier now. After a decade of travel/high school baseball In which I saw a small handful of my son’s teammates and friends end up at good programs (Duke, West Virginia, Pitt, Cornell, William and Mary), I’ve sorta lived this. The vast majority did not, and even the ones who made it aren’t going to make any money playing MLB. That said, almost all of the kids were all nice and the vast majority of the parents were terrific people. This is just me, but I didn’t see much in the way of burnout. Overall, it was a very good experience, and focusing mostly on one sport where he could hone his craft was good for him. Anyway, what this article is describing is it’s a real thing, but it’s hardly a red-alert crisis.

Great story. Thanks for posting.

What’s with the hyperbole? They were bad but not the worst. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef Scoring? Focus on DVOA. Fourth.

?? KC’s 2017 offense was 4th in offensive DVOA, 6th in points, and 5th in yards. You can’t cherry pick one game — and the Bills game no less (homer goggles alert!) — and conflate it with an entire season. They had a near-elite offense overall that year.

I know what he did, but it’s football (a very rough sport), and White had been successfully holding him and roughing him all game without getting called for it (which I was happy about). He just lost his cool. Not right, I know. Oh lord. He wan’t trying to cripple anyone. This is ridiculous.

I do agree with you that the Dareus situation was pretty untenable and that he probably had to go. There's stuff that happens behind the scenes that none of us are privy too. Sure, we find out when an o-lineman goes nuts, runs naked over an electric fence, and draws police attention, but there are a lot of crazy people in the NFL who do stupid sh*t, and we don't hear about all of them. Not even close. That lurks behind all of these conversations.

It's really hard to make ANY assessments of Dareus's performance in those four games in 2012. One of those games was a biannual beat-down by the Pats in which DT Keith Williams (who?????) played 77 percent of the snaps. The second was a game in which Alex Smith absolutely shredded the secondary and Greg Roman thoroughly outcoached Wannstedt. The third saw Kevin Kolb rush 5 times for 66 yards, padding the rush stats. Even still, the Cardinals offense didn't do much, scoring only 16 points in a game that went into OT. The final one saw Chris Johnson break an 83 yard TD run, which totally skews the stats, and as it pertains to the d-line, they have no control over anything 10 yards past the LOS. (That game also featured one of Fitzpatrick's worst late-game ill-advised INTs, and as you'll recall George Wilson dropped an easy INT which would have sealed the game with a minute to go.) Most importantly, it's really impossible to deduce how bad he was or whether his presence or absence had much of an effect overall given that a defense consists of 11 moving parts. That defense was bad overall (27th in defensive DVOA), the LBs were awful (Bryan Scott, Kelvin Sheppard, Nick Barnett, a young Arthur Moats, and a rookie Nigel Bradham) and they had stone age-level coordination on top of that. The first two teams they faced in this sequence were super bowl caliber too. As for Dareus's play in those games, I have zero recollection of how he played, and I'd venture to guess that no one else here does either.

They address this issue in the piece and say that it's part of their own evaluation process now.

I agree with most here that we definitely shouldn't leap to ANY conclusions at this point, but one thing that is stuck in my memory is the 2009 Pro Football Weekly report about pre-full training camp sessions in Buffalo, and the writer said that Aaron Maybin looked awful against NFL competition and could be a problem going forward. People on this board predictably ripped the PFW writer, but he turned out to be perceptive.

A few nuggets amidst a lot of interesting info: Levi Wallace’s high upside going into this season coverage ability is more important to a pass defense than pressure RT is as important as LT and should be paid as such https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/06/17/pro-football-focus-nfl-analytics-fmia-guest/

Prescott is a really good qb. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01.htm

I did say run blocking. This analysis focuses a lot on pass blocking.

He actually looked as dynamic as ever on receiving plays. I don't think people really realize yet how bad the Bills' run blocking was last season. It was historically awful - the worst I've ever seen in my years of watching the Bills going back to around 1973. You are WAY, WAY off here. The Bills' line play on running plays was the worst I've ever seen by a Buffalo unit, and that encompasses a lot of bad teams over the decades. Anyone who thinks the Bills had better run blocking than Miami last season wasn't watching football.

Zay Jones was not good last season, and when Watkins played, he was infinitely more of a threat and a better player than Jones (e.g., the playoff game vs. NE). It's not even remotely close, and yes I realize he gets hurt too much. Regarding Jones's numbers, bear in mind that the very worst NBA teams in history average at least 80 points a game. Someone has to score the points, just as for the worst NFL defense, someone has to make the tackles. Who else did the QBs have to throw to before Foster became a threat? Benjamin was an utter joke and couldn't even run a route properly, and Clay was terrible last season. Jones was the only credible receiver on the team. With regard to Jones last season, stats don't come close to telling the story. He scares no one, struggled all season to beat press coverage, and isn't explosive enough to outrun DBs and take it to the house. Plus he still struggled catching the ball, although his hands are average by NFL standards and I don't want to criticize him too much for that. Having said all of this, he has a ceiling of "average contributor," which is something. You need those guys because it's all too easy to end up with below-average offensive contributors (as Bills fans know all too well from last season). If he stays healthy and progresses, he can be a poor man's Robert Woods. That's not a great outcome, but it's not terrible. I suspect he's gone after year 4 anyway. My concern all along is that he's Alex Van D y k e redux, another early second rounder with mediocre athleticism who set a record for catches in college against weak competition.

I see your point. As a fan, though, I do think about the necessity of getting production in the early years given the current system, not because I feel a need to assign draft grades two years out. More knowledgeable fans get it, and you're of course one of them.

I usually agree with you Bandit, but Zay Jones was not good last year. In fact, I thought he mostly stunk. Sure, he got some vulture TDs in garbage time and the occasional blown coverage TD, but he's too slow, struggled to catch the ball, and wracked up his numbers because in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. In other words, he was a better option than Kelvin Benjamin, but that doesn't mean he was good. EDIT: I'm not saying he can't improve, and he did make a nice TD catch against Houston (on a perfect throw by none other than Peterman). But one standout play isn't enough.

I'd say that that everyone picked after the first round can be gone after four years, and most players WILL test the market if allowed (they'd be foolish not to do so), so you better get some production out of them in those four years. Just as importantly, for first rounders, by the end of year three, a team HAS to know if the fifth year option is worth the gamble, and they can only know that judging from the production of the first three years. The Bills made huge financial decisions about Lawson and Watkins based on their production in years 1-3, and not just year 3. That's not how it was in the days of yore by a long stretch. In short, everything has changed, and it has little to to do with a news cycle.

Strategy: Punting from the opponent's 32 yard line on 4th and 2 when down 17-7 early in the second half vs. an offensive juggernaut. Culture: "We need to decide whether Crabtree wants to be a fake-ass prima donna or he wants to be a tough guy. We need to find that out. He becomes human when we (expletive) take out that outside ACL." Also: "Every single one of you, before you get off the pile, affect the head,. Early, affect the head. Continue, touch and hit the head." Very, very tough choice.

I "laughed" at this one because it was funny, but of course the appropriate response is the "confused" emoji with the bugged-out eyes.

It was the 32 yard line, actually, and they only needed 2 yards for the first down: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200211030buf.htm. It's the first series of the third quarter.

He was 6-5 in NY and the team cratered after Dan Marino's fake spike. With regard to NE, he took over an 11-5 team that had gone 6-10 the year before. More importantly, his QB was Drew Bledsoe, probably the most overrated big-name QB in NFL history.

The other thing is that whether it's deserved or not, Beane and McDermott have a lot respect around the league and are well-liked. The Pegulas are followers and not mavericks in these matters, and my guess is that they won't regard getting rid of these two as a good look. Hence they won't get rid of them if they go 6-10 this season. I don't think any of their firees in the Sabres organization or Rex/Whaley are remotely comparable to Beane/McDermott.