dave mcbride

Then put in Penix. The qb sneak is the highest percentage play in that situation.

Bad call, but on third and 4th and short, ATL chose to run the worst, lowest percentage plays in the game. They deserved to lose.

How about a qb sneak, which almost always works, with the game on the line, vs a low-percentage RB run?

Yup. Also, wow — that is the worst playcalling I have seen in a while. RB short yardage runs when the D know it’s coming almost never work. Just pathetic.

I can pretty much guarantee you that Brady is smarter than whoever the OC was for TB under Bowles. Nothing to see here.

It’s definitely DPI. KC literally got that call last week at the end of the game.

A lot. As much as you have, I’m quite certain. It was an epically bad call on a good play by one of the best players in the NFL on SNF.

Jones is one of the best players in the league. He’s not some rando berserker and should be given the benefit of the doubt. Most importantly, it was a laughably bad call.

Bail out the Chiefs??? GMAFB. The call on Jones was legendarily bad. Good for the Bills, though.

The roughing call on Chris Jones is one of the worst calls I have seen in the last decade. Don’t get me wrong — I want the Chiefs to lose. But there will be no worse call that you’ll ever see.

One of my oldest and closest friends has been a hardcore Pats fan since early childhood (1970s) and has been harping in the issue cited below by The Athletic today for months now: “Patriots have serious protection issues It’s going to be hard for the Patriots to have even a semblance of a functional offense behind the O-line they’ve constructed. Both coach Jerod Mayo and de facto GM Eliot Wolf spent weeks leading into the season insisting that there were no concerns over the offensive line and all proclaiming that all the talk of problems there were way overblown. Now, three weeks in, there’s not a bigger concern for the Patriots. The front five was so bad Thursday night that Brissett was hit on nearly half of his dropbacks. The group entered the game ranked 31st in pressure rate allowed, and they may become the new last place team after this performance. What’s maddening about it is how predictable it was. The Patriots had a terrible offensive line last year, then only tried to fix it by signing journeymen Vederian Lowe and Chukwuma Okorafor and drafting a right tackle in the third round (Caedan Wallace) to play left tackle. It’s been a total and complete disaster.” Yeah, 10th overall - my bad!

I am genuinely concerned about the Jets now. Rodgers looked to me like one of the best qbs to ever play the game both last night and in parts of the Titans game. He is unfortunately still EXTREMELY good. Good comments, although I thought Rodgers looked mostly fine in week one. He looked absolutely spectacular last night — winning the play before the snap happened on almost every play and so, so accurate with so, so much zip. He is something to watch — and a likely problem for the Bills’ fortunes in the AFC East. The Jets are clearly the main enemy in the division now. Also, Garrett Wilson was deservedly a top 5 pick. He is fantastic.

Don't forget the 32 point/426 yard beatdown TB put up on them in the playoffs last season. Playoffs are the most important games ...

Big profile of Benford in The Athletic today. He certainly grew up in challenging circumstances (West Baltimore, setting of The Wire): https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5699837/2024/09/19/christian-benford-bills-face-tattoo/ Rasul Douglas is also above average in both categories. All three are playing well.

Lots of good quotes from Mahomes and Trubisky (as well as more from Allen) in the piece.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5777845/2024/09/19/nfl-quarterbacks-short-pass-trend/ Sean McDermott was chatting with caddie Ted Scott over the summer about strategy and sports psychology when Scott mentioned how his boss, PGA star Scottie Scheffler, has adopted the mindset of just trying to hit singles around the course. “Scottie Singles” has now won a pair of majors, including this year’s Masters, and has been ranked the No. 1 player in the world for more than two years. The strategy resonated so much with the Buffalo Bills head coach that he relayed the story to his star quarterback, Josh Allen, who is an avid golfer. Allen immediately saw the connection. Allen, like many quarterbacks around the league, has been forced to adapt to the NFL’s changing defensive schemes. It wasn’t long ago when Allen was Buffalo’s power hitter, ripping chunk plays from the pocket on the seams and go routes to the outside. Now he’s often looking across at two deep safeties positioned to eliminate the big play, leaving him content to be a slap hitter: Singles up the middle on short, quick passes until the Bills reach the red zone. “It’s understanding that when I do take risks, that they’re calculated, and the reward is well worth it,” Allen told The Athletic. “I haven’t thrown the ball too many times downfield.” He’s not alone. It has only been two weeks, but 31 percent of Allen’s targets have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, according to TruMedia data, putting him well above a fast-rising league average. More than 24 percent of the league’s throws this year have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, while quarterbacks are averaging 7.4 air yards per attempt. That’s the highest percentage, and the lowest air yards, through the first two weeks since TruMedia began tracking such data in 2006. The trickle-down effect is deflated passing numbers across the league. The only quarterback to throw for at least 250 yards in each of the first two games this season? The Las Vegas Raiders’ Gardner Minshew. Some of the game’s biggest names — and arms — have been corralled by stingy defenses willing to give up the underneath to protect the over the top. It has forced quarterbacks like Allen to stay patient. “When we get into the red zone we’ll find more ways to get exotic and score because it is a little harder down there,” Allen said. “But we’re not going to do anything to put the ball in harm’s way up until that point.” Allen’s percentage of throws at or behind the line has doubled from 2021 when he was at 15 percent through two games. That was the year he and the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes combined for one of the most explosive playoff games in history — 707 passing yards and 78 points. It’s the game that may have broken the league. Almost immediately, defenses returned to two high safety looks the following season. It has successfully slowed not just scoring, but ball movement as well.

I really feel like the league blackballed him for his leading role in nflpa union activities. He was coming off a great season and no one wanted him. The same happened to the excellent Browns center JC Trotter, who is actually from Buffalo and graduated from Cornell’s Industrial and Labor Relations school (where my son went). He was still really good and no team wanted him—and he was head of the union. Everyone talks about kaepernick, but the (presumably) blackballed nflpa union leaders comprise a story that needs to be written. People forget that most nfl owners are INCREDIBLY anti-labor (and always have been).

You’re gonna die on this hill, it sounds like. Most college QBs suck in the NFL assuming they ever make it in the first place. The hit rate for all colleges is terrible over time.

Well, Hurts finished in MVP voting for the 2022 season, and Tua, whatever we might think of him, is statistically an above average thrower (he actually led the league in QB+ rating in 2022). He's 33-20 as a starter. So I'd say two are at least decent to good. But I challenge you to find other schools that have put out two good QBs in that same timeframe. The only reason people focus on Bama is because their guys at least MAKE the NFL. The guys from Texas A & M, Florida, Washington, etc. largely aren't. One or two might, but not five like Bama.

Playing with a zillion five-star recruits was only a problem in the sense that it masked his deficiencies when playing against teams comprised of 3-star recruits, a couple of fours, and maybe 1-2 fives. Stetson Bennett looked amazing in college, as did Ken Dorsey for that matter. They just weren't that talented physically. A guy who was and who played in an elite program was Stafford, and he's had a very good NFL career. Because he's really talented.

You can say that about any school, but Alabama is actually one of the best historically (Bart Starr, Ken Stabler, Joe Namath, and I guess Jalen Hurts, although he did transfer away). I'd go as far as to argue that the only other schools that have produced three very good NFL QBs are Stanford (Elway, Luck, Plunkett), Purdue (Griese, Len Dawson, Brees), and Cal (Rogers, Brodie, Goff). Beyond that, no one has produced more than two as far as I can tell. Michigan was famous for never putting out good QBs until they did (the GOAT), and now one can say the same for Ohio State, who appear to have finally produced an elite qb. Most elite schools top out with two. Miami put out Kelly and Kosar, and I guess you could say Vinny T but I wouldn't include him. LSU had Bert Jones and Joe Burrow but no one beyond that. Tennessee has Payton Manning, Ole Miss Payton and Eli, Texas just Bobby Layne. USC just Carson Palmer (although the jury is out on Darnold given that he's young). UCLA has just Troy Aikman. And on and on. Anyway, judging a qb's future path by where he went to school doesn't really work.

It's funny how the 2018 QB draft is now looking given that Darnold and Mayfield are in good situations and playing well.

My understanding is that the best predictor is points off of turnover differential, not TO differential. The Chiefs got 7 and Cincy 10, so it was closer than a 3-1 ratio. That said, the Bengals did do better on that stat. The other thing that doesn't get factored into passing stats is DPIs, and the Bengals had a lot more penalties than KC -- and the killer long (29 yards) DPI that ended the game.

Totally DPI. Not debatable. He has been saddled with really bad teams. He is not a bad player.

Both. The throw was sensational