dave mcbride

What would be interesting would be to X out those games in which both QBs threw for 300 yards. I suspect the winning percentage for the 300-yard throwers would go up. I think there is the common sense factor in that yardage has at least a decent correlation to YPA, and YPA is the key ingredient in passer rating. Team passer rating differential is the best predictor of success and failure in all of football. I'll take the QB who can put a team on his back and win in a shootout over the Christian Ponders of the world, thank you very much.

He had 19 in 5 games -- bear in mind that he got hurt in the first half of the Giants game trying to tackle a defender after Izzo completely whiffed on a block and strip-sacked Brady. He was on pace for 61 catches and 896 yards, which would be the best season by a Bills WR since Sammy Watkins in 2015.

Yes, you’re right - not a hit piece. Everyone also needs to remind themselves that he was effectively cut mid-season by a smart, well-run organization with a real need at the WR position. That happened for a reason.

They should lose to Dallas, but there is always the any-given-Sunday factor: turnovers, fluke plays, injuries. You never know.

Yes, and the last regular season win in Pitt was 1975 (big day for OJ — 227 yards). They have played a pretty fair number of times at Pitt over the decades, and there have been many curb stompings. They are 1-2 in the postseason there. They won in 1992 and lost 40-21 in 1995 and 32-14 in 1974.

So you think the Bills have an equal or better chance of winning the division as the Steelers? If I were a betting person, I would literally bet the farm that the Patriots are going to win the division. I would not bet the farm on Baltimore.

I'm actually just making conversation. I like talking about this stuff. I'm not taking anyone down.

I think the Chiefs will ultimately get a bye. I just think they're a better team than the Ravens/Colts/Texans, and they hold the head to head vs. Baltimore. They don't vs. Indy, but the latter has a tough schedule ahead of them: 7 tough opponents out of their final 9 (NO, Carolina, Jax twice, TN, Pittsburgh, and Houston).

Pittsburgh absolutely has a better chance of winning their division than the Bills. Do you REALLY think that the Pats' chances of winning the AFC East aren't effectively 99+%? The Ravens haven't won more than 10 games since 2011. The Patriots haven't won less than 11 games since 2009.

The Bills have the easiest schedule I've ever seen. They have five quite bad teams on tap: Miami, the Jets, the Redskins, Denver, and the Browns. They also have to play one great team on the road, 1 pretty good team at home (Baltimore), and one so-so team with a very inexperienced QB who looks to be about as generic as it gets (Rudolph). I think Miami, the Jets, the Redskins, and Denver are locks. The Browns is a winnable game but tougher, although the Bills have far better coaching. Pittsburgh has to play Indy, the Rams, and the Ravens. They also have AZ on the road, and AZ is not bad. The Bills are more likely to get to ten wins than Pittsburgh.

I think that's right. No one else beside the Bills and Pats in the AFC East is going to get to 10, and I feel the same way about the AFC West beyond KC. The AFC Central will be its usual clusterf**k with 4 teams finishing within two games of 8-8. The only teams with a chance of getting to 10 wins in the AFC Central are Baltimore and Pitt, and the latter is 3-4 with a fairly unimpressive young QB. He's going to lose them a couple of games at least.

You have to factor in that the prediction is based in part on the Steelers being favored at home to beat the Bills and thus getting the head-to-head advantage. The Bills haven't beaten Pittsburgh in Pitt in decades.

You might want to do some research. If you remove Allen's yards, their ypc average actually goes up. Presently, they're fifth in the league with 4.9 ypc. Allen is averaging 4.4. If you're going to judge a running game, focus on production per play and not raw numbers. The Bills are objectively good at running the ball via their running backs.

Agreed. The Falcons, despite all of the bad defenses, are 103-78 when he has started and have had 2 13-3 seasons.

Tre White is handsy too - and in a good way.

Fans are actually wrong for complaining if they don't know (or don't assume as a given) that even the best CBs get beat regularly in the NFL, particularly if the pass rush isn't there.

??? They were absolutely obliterated in NE last year; don't be deceived by the score. The Bills scored a garbage time TD with a minute to go when the outcome wasn't in doubt, and that outcome wasn't in doubt after the first 20 minutes of that game. NE ran it all game, steamrolling the Bills for 273 rushing yards. It was one of the more embarrassing Bills performances in recent years. The year before they lost in NE 37-16. Sure, the Bills led in the 3rd at one point, but they also led 21-0 against the Pats in 2011 before going on to lose 49-21. The last 25 minutes of the game count too, and the Pats ultimately massacred them in that game. Having said that, I do think that DVOA misses a bit on coaching, as I outline here:

I’ll bet you some money that they get blown out in NE. The odds would definitely be on my side. FO’s doesn’t predict every outcome correctly anyway. Look, I fully expect the Bills to win 10 and maybe 11 games, but they aren’t that good. Don’t get me wrong—I love the fact that they have a bizarrely creampuff schedule.

similar to this, in a sense: https://community.fangraphs.com/a-brief-analysis-of-predictive-pitching-metrics/

Who is “most”? These numbers have been raised in other threads to relatively little criticism. I also think you’re looking at it incorrectly. Like fielding independent pitching (FIP), which isn’t an accurate indicator of past ERA but a great one for future ERA, DVOA offers you an idea of where the team is headed next. The issue is that the Bills schedule is SO easy — like, historically easy, as in the next 4 games are against bottom tier DVOA teams — that the win loss record won’t show you how mediocre the team really by week 11. If they get blown out by Dallas, Baltimore, and NE while getting to 11-5/10-6, you’ll have a sense of who they really are.

Come on now: that was Ohio snow, not western NY snow. It blows differently.

I think your general point is good, but I also think that Watson and Wentz are at least very good (better than good) with greatness potential in them. And you can't argue with Goff's production. I mean, just look at Watson's numbers. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WatsDe00.htm

He was actually good in Buffalo. Now, with far better coaching and preparation, he's the best in the league at his craft.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/10/30/stephon-gilmore-on-why-he-is-best-cornerback-in-nfl He ached to know how they did it. “I know they’ve got a great quarterback, but these other guys are always in position to make plays,” Gilmore recalls thinking. “Five years in Buffalo, you see that and you are like, I don’t know what it is. What are they doing different? Then, to actually get on their side, is totally different.” --- In Buffalo, Gilmore studied film on a projector at home. But the Patriots watch so much footage during the day that often Gilmore has nothing more to see at night. “Sometimes we even watch the same film 10 times in a row, and it’s like, I already watched this,” he says. “But you are not going to forget it in a game.” --- During his five years in Buffalo, Gilmore had three different coaches and four defensive coordinators. When Rex Ryan arrived in 2015, many expected the former Jets coach to use Gilmore the way he had used Revis. But the Bills’ staff relied less on man coverage than coaches had in New York; they kept Gilmore on the right side of the formation rather than let him follow the top receiver. “[The Patriots] demanded more of him,” says Dennis Thurman, Gilmore’s defensive coordinator for his last two seasons in Buffalo. “They needed him to handle the responsibility they placed on him, and in return he is paying them back for believing in him. He had to prove he was worthy of that contract, and now I think he has outperformed it.” Gilmore did become a Revis—just for the world champions. During New England’s Thursday-night game against the Giants, in Week 6, Revis tweeted that Gilmore “by far is the best corner in the game right now.”