dave mcbride

The most predictive stat of won/loss records in football is team passer rating differential. The Browns team passer rating is 71.2, and opponents collectively have a 103.6 passer rating against them. -32.4 in that category is a huge number.

Yes, excellent point.

The throws were decent enough, but collectively they amount to super-conservative, take-no-chances passing that simply won't win you games in the NFL. A standard-issue, pro-style running game isn't good enough to win in the NFL (or even get you TDs) even if it's strong, and that's all the Redskins have.

Agreed, although I was pretty unimpressed by Haskins. He made one or two nice relatively short range out pattern throws, but they were basically all gimmes that the Bills were happy to concede. He only challenged them twice beyond the initial secondary wall, and overthrew it once and got stoned the other time (by Taron Johnson in the EZ). Playing like that will get you to midfield, but it's not a recipe for scoring TDs. I do realize he's a rookie with very little experience, but that just suggests to me that he should never have been taken in the first round.

They had four sacks yesterday, and both starting DEs recorded sacks.

35 percent isn't that bad - bear in mind that the Redskins ran a ridiculously low 49 plays (because they went 2-11 on third down).

Also, I wish people would acknowledge that the Redskins defense is actually decent and possessing a pretty talented front seven (Kerrigan, Sweat, Payne, and Allen) along with Landon Collins. In the previous three games, they didn't allow the opponent to get 20 points, including on the road at Minnesota. The problem on those plays is that the DTs on Washington (Payne and Allen) have blue-chip level talent, and pretty much dominated the o-lineman they faced on those plays. Generally speaking, in the NFL the best line athletes play defense, and the worst ones play interior o-line. Mitch Morse is a good pass blocker, but in a low-man leverage competition against Da'Ron Payne, he is going to lose every time (which is what happened yesterday)--particularly on plays where Payne can sell out because he knows exactly what's coming (because the Bills short yardage playcalling is so predictable).

McDermott’s quote is alarming in its stone-agedness and makes me think he’s possibly forcing Daboll into this sort of playcalling.

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2019/11/03/buffalo-bills-beat-redskins-sean-mcdermott-says-team-work-in-progress-devin-singletary-josh-allen/4125094002/ How hard is it to gain one yard? Really hard if you’re the Bills. They have been confronted with a third-and-1 situation 12 times this season and have made the first down just five times, gaining only three yards net. Add in fourth-and-1 and they’ve had that situation four times and made the first down twice, gaining just two yards. Not good. As McDermott said, “and ones” were a problem in this game, specifically. It was most glaring in the second quarter when the Bills failed to gain an inch on first-, second-, and third-and-goal at the 1 — all Frank Gore runs — before Allen finally punched it across. Later, they failed on a fourth-and-1 attempt by Gore at the Redskins' 24. Allen made a third-and-1 with a sneak in the first quarter, and he was stopped in the same situation on a sneak in the third on the play before Gore was stuffed on fourth down. And then in the fourth, on third-and-1, Gore lost three yards. In every case, the Bills were bunched together at the line with multiple tight ends and could not win, rather than spread out the formation and attack into wider spaces. “At the end of the day, it’s your job to drive the guy off the ball, right?” McDermott said. “So we’ve got to look at that.” What McDermott and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll really need to be looking at is changing their approach and using more spread formations on short yardage plays. Just ask their own defensive players, which I did. When safety Jordan Poyer sees the “big people” come on the field on third-and-short, he loves it. “Of course you do because you can kind of narrow down the types of plays they’re going to run,” he said. “Especially if they’ve been running them all game and they’ve been successful. To me it’s always easier to play third-and-1 when they bring bigger guys on the field than it is to play when they spread you out and force you to probably play man.” Linebacker Lorenzo Alexander said, “It can be (tougher against spread out formations), depending on who the quarterback is and what type of weapons they have on the outside. I think at the end of the day, the core of it is, (the offense) saying, ‘We’re tougher than you and we’re going to knock you off the ball and get this first down.’ It’s mindset football, it’s an old-school way of thinking.”

There are a lot of people on this board who were quite vocal about how much he sucks, and they need to look themselves in the mirror and seriously question their presuppositions.

Jackson rushed for 4,132 yards in college and never missed a snap. And unlike Allen ( who was hurt a couple of times in college), he played in a real conference.

People keep saying that in this board ... but with no evidence or even a small hint of evidence.

I thought before the game that NE would lose this one. They are not a 16-0 team.

Yep. No comparison, really.

Jax should Have moved to London years ago.

Welker was excellent in Miami.

Captain Queeg.

?? — Flores has gameplanned quite well for the last 4-5 games straight. He just doesn’t have the horses right now, but he will if they draft well. They are well coached, flat out.

He started out 8 for 99 and went 10 for 9 the rest of the way.

100 percent agree. Also: Payne is really good. Gore didn’t have a chance on any of those plays.

I presume the mountain of evidence demonstrating Kyle Shanahan’s competence (not to mention Wade Phillips) has changed your opinion at least a little? I get the nepotism charge, but another way to look at it as a family trade, like artisans of old. Sons are raised in the business and don’t have much of a choice other than to eat, drink, and breathe it. If they like it and are bright, there’s a greater chance of them developing expertise than most others. Plus BB is extraordinarily smart, and perhaps the son is too.

Haskins isn't really athletic at all; Jones is. Haskins is a classic pocket passer.

(Thanks, but note that I forgot to remember Bledsoe's 4,000 yard season in 2002 in my final comment about the Bills. I corrected it.)

OK, I just calculated the win-loss records for 4,000+ yards passers, 4,800+ yard passers, and 5,000+ yard passers over the entire history of the league, and also broke out a more recent stretch (2013-2018) when the number of 4,000+ yard passers exploded. These aren't 300 yard games per se, but if someone is throwing for 4000+ yards, you know they're putting up a decent number of 300-yard games and are capable of competing in shootouts. Here goes: 5,000+ yard passers: 105-54-1 (66 percent) 4,800+ yard passers (if you're throwing for 4,800, you're *averaging* 300 ypg): 215-135-2 (63 percent) 4,000+ yard passers: 1,616-1,088-8 (60 percent) 4,000+ yard passers since 2013: 588-451 (57 percent) The Bills have have had one 4,000 yard passer (Bledsoe in 2002; they went 8-8), and their franchise lifetime won-loss record is 420-479-8 (47 percent). Since the beginning of this century--the golden era of big passing numbers--their winning percentage is 42 percent (132-179). (@Mango - fyi)

Agree 100 percent. Also, as I said above, his lifetime performance against winning teams was truly abysmal and indeed notorious back in the day.