dave mcbride

Sorry to hear that!

I think you may have misinterpreted the post (or perhaps I did). I didn't take him to say that the Pitt D is better, but that they are more opportunistic and tend to have more scoring plays on D. The Bills D is probably more consistent and better disciplined overall, but they don't score (or at least haven't yet).

I really hope you're confidence is warranted!

Excellent post. Seriously.

His high was 24th in QB DVOA, which he reached after the Cowboys game. Not sure what you're referring to - maybe ESPN's QBR? ?? -- measuring, say, a defense by team wins and losses won't tell you much if the offense and ST are terrible. If they were playing in Buffalo, I would be very confident. The fact that they are playing in Pitt, that Pitt is on a big run, and that Pitt's D now has elite-level personnel with the addition of Fitzpatrick makes me worried. I still think the Bills are the better team and should win, but since they've historically struggled quite badly in Pitt, I think it's a toss-up.

you do realize that they're all in the top six for points and yards allowed, right?

Dallas has the #1 pass offense in the league. I think the Bills certainly have a good chance to beat the Steelers, but it's worth noting that DVOA actually factors in quality of opponent, which raw yardage/points measures don't.

I agree and almost included that point. That may well be a run for the bus game, though, given the strong likelihood of crappy weather ...

Hope you're right, but it's still a tough stretch. Pitt has been playing lights out on D lately.

Your prerogative. I think it's a good measure.

As measured by Football Outsiders: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

The Steelers' D talent is pretty comparable to the Ravens. Great front seven plus an elite safety (Fitzpatrick) and a shutdown corner in Hayden.

Note how this thread started after playing the Ravens - a team coached by a former ST coach who have traditionally had great STs.

Throwers are guys with high arm talent but lack of touch and speed variability. Throwers are the opposite of pitchers, and pitchers equate with passers. To wit: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-pitcher-vs-the-thrower-a-garrett-richards-tale/

The Jets told Bell to stay away from the team and told him he couldn't play. Full stop. I suggest everyone read this before mounting their moral high horses: https://www.si.com/nfl/jets/news/leveon-bell-explains-bowling-trip-before-week-13.

He's still not going to miss a snap (he's playing tomorrow), but for the first time he's listed as questionable, and the blow to his quad happened on a throwing play (his third TD pass against the Bills). https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/12/11/lamar-jackson-is-questionable-for-thursday-night/

The deep shot to Foster was interference, but it wasn't a good throw. It was a desperation heave.

3 years as starter in the ACC (38 games) and now nearly 2 years as starter in the NFL (29 games; he played in every game as a rookie). He has never missed a snap due to injury despite rushing for over 5,800 yards. The narrative of "he's destined to get hurt!" really has to stop.

I don't hate players; I hate laundry.

Agreed - what a stupid story. He was told to keep away from the team. What the hell is wrong with bowling, about as family-friendly an activity as you could ever imagine? He was actually ordered to stay away from the team.

Plus the fact that the majority of passing plays that took any amount of time had resulted in jailbreaks during that part of the game meant that he KNEW he had to sling it. Can't risk another sack there.

The craziest thing is that Braxton had a career year too that season.

I dunno. Jim Braxton and Rocky Bleier both put up substantial yardage totals in Simpson and Harris's most productive seasons. In OJ's best season (1975), Braxton had 823 yards rushing in a 14-game season. One thing that is true is that it was definitely a more brutal game back then.

Interestingly, it appears that fumble rates overall have REALLY declined in recent years. Walter Payton's was 2.0 percent, Emmitt Smith's was 1.2, Barry Sanders's was 1.2, Thurman Thomas was 1.4, and OJ's was 2.4 percent, Eric Dickerson's was 2.4 percent, and Franco Harris's was 2.8 percent! My god, that's a lot. 1.2 percent is a very high rate these days, and most backs are under 1 percent. Coaching, an increase in zero tolerance for fumblers, reviews that show the knee was down, and less clotheslining and headshots probably have a fair bit to do with this.

He said regular season. 1975 was OJ's best season. He had nearly 200 more yards from scrimmage than in the 1973 season, and he had 23 TDs in 1975 to 12 in 1973. He averaged 15.2 yards per reception that season! Just unstoppable. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SimpO.00.htm