dave mcbride

Yeah, I don't know what's up with that, honestly. That could make for a good Buffalo News investigative report.

Agreed; should have been caught.

And again: Hogan: https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/buffalo-bills-chris-hogan-wrist-injury-torn-ligaments-010616 Woods: http://espn.go.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/23231/bills-robert-woods-played-14-games-with-torn-groin None of this was reported.

Chris Hogan and Robert Woods said pretty much EXACTLY the same thing after the 2015 seasons. Nothing happened. Also, I know it's really, really fashionable on this board to dismiss PFF completely (and believe me, I have my issues with them), but their analyses aren't entirely worthless, as so many seem to believe here. There is a reason that McDermott and Beane re-upped Hughes a couple of years ago. He was a genuinely excellent player in 2017.

This is so wrong. He is an elite pressure guy and the grades show it year over year. He has been disruptive his whole career with the Bills. To wit: https://www.buffalobills.com/news/jerry-hughes-led-bills-defensive-front-to-top-10-pff-ranking

LOL re the investigation. Chris Hogan played 2015 with torn ligaments in his wrist. Never reported. Robert Woods played 2015 with a torn thigh muscle (quad/hamstring; can't recall). Never reported. https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/buffalo-bills-chris-hogan-wrist-injury-torn-ligaments-010616

So you're saying it's kinda like the Tyrod/Zay Jones play vs Carolina, but in the reverse -- where Tyrod saw the easy TD and adjusted appropriately, but the stumbling Jones continued on the out route (to about the 3 yard line) despite the fact that the EZ was wide open and would have ended the game in the Bills' favor.

yeah, I know. i made a mistake.

I agree, but isn't this the best receiver class in many years? Take the highest graded player, and if there's a tie between the WR and DE, take the WR. As I said above, I don't even think the logic applies in this scenario given the great WR talent in this draft.

Good points; the afc east (6 games!), though, doesn’t feature any such qbs. Not saying it’s not important, but the first thing a coach and gm have to do is build a team to win the divisional games. i was also referring to PFR’s AV rating, which is a bit of a mystery to me. That said, their sister site, baseball-reference, developed B-WAR, and it is awesome. I love that suite of sites. Best thing on the internet for sports fans.

None of the analytics sites actually support this. All have Murphy as the more productive player. While I have my issues with those sites and treat them with a grain of salt, the fact of the matter is that Murphy started every game while Lawson started none, and he played more snaps. Did the coaches make the right decision? I don't know, but I have a hunch that while they obviously want to stop the run, they recognize that a good pass defense is simply more important than a good run defense in today's NFL. The Bills' defense prevented points because its pass D was so good. Murphy, regardless of sack totals, was a disruptive player on pass downs all season long.

Fair point, and thanks. I really do think Murphy had a good game overall (2 sacks and a lot of pressure), and my one rejoinder to your point is that it was an RPO play and the Houston run game was starting to gash the Bills. He bit on the run, which was understandable. Look -- at the end of the day, everyone on that defense, which had played so well through the first Houston series of the second half, did something wrong in the second half/OT. As to your larger point, one is under contract and one isn't. And I suspect Lawson's deal is going to be bigger than Murphy's.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Chrissake PS - Here's the OED entry: https://www.oed.com/view/Entry/32426?redirectedFrom=chrissake#eid Chris(s)ake, n. Etymology: Shortened < Christ's sake. colloq. ‘Christ's sake’, used in oaths, etc. Usually preceded by for. 1933 E. Hemingway Winner take Nothing (1934) 199 ‘Oh for Chrisake,’ the detective sergeant said. 1943 P. Cheyney You can always Duck vi. 96 ‘For chrissake!’ he says. ‘What do you mean?’ 1951 J. D. Salinger Catcher in Rye iii. 28 For Chrissake, grow up. 1953 W. R. Burnett Vanity Row ii. 18 Chrissake, can't she sit up here? 1954 M. Procter Hell is City iii. xv. 143 For Chrissake gimme a cigarette.

I buy that about the frame (as does this profile - https://www.nfl.com/prospects/denzel-ward?id=32195741-5214-6753-6b71-7e5e98188e98), but I just wanted to stress that 5'11" is considered a perfectly fine height for CBs. They can't be too tall, of course. 6'1" seems to be about the height limit before you hit diminishing returns.

5'11" isn't small for a CB.

He was bad against NE and has a lifetime TD/INT ratio of 10/21. That is simply terrible.

5'11" / 190 isn't small for a CB. Tre White is listed at 5'11" / 192 pounds - the same, basically.

Denzel Ward is a good and highly talented player, no?

I hate to say it, but the schedule is going to be brutal next season: Pittsburgh with presumably a real QB, TN, the AFC West, the NFC West, NE twice, and 4 games against improving Jets/Miami teams. The AFC West I think will be surprisingly tough - the Raiders are a young, talented team that improved this season, and Denver could easily have been 9-7 if not for a couple of horrific calls. It really comes down to whether Lock is good enough. The NFC West is brutal: AZ was playing everyone tough late this season, and can score. LA, SF, and Seattle are all deep and talented teams with good coaches. That's not to say that the Bills can't become the next SF-style team and start dominating even the good teams, but if that is to happen, Allen will have to become an elite player next year - a QB who can consistently lead the team to 28+ points.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, he's a young, experienced, and reasonably good DE coming off of his rookie contract. More than one team will see him as an upgrade, and he'll be paid as a consequence. I also think he's an excellent fit for Patriots-style defenses (e.g., Miami, NE, Detroit, Houston). I doubt the Bills see him in those terms, and won't match. He's going to the team that'll give him the best deal and the most guaranteed money. He'd be unwise not to.

Yolo's thread on the pressers has a tweet in which he says that.

PS - I don't put much stock in PFF ratings and PFR's AV number because I don't really understand them, so take this with a grain of salt. Murphy graded out higher than Lawson by both metrics (and significantly so with AV) this season. Again, I think Lawson is a good player, but I also think that Murphy was a lot better than people here are giving him credit for, at least based on what I watched. I really did think he was a pretty disruptive force over the course of the season.

He didn't start any games this year at all, actually (not that that means much). More importantly, his snap count was basically under 50 percent for the first half of the season before going up later in the season: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LawsSh00.htm. By way of comparison, Murphy's snap counts were significantly higher: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MurpTr00.htm. I think Shaq has become a better player and like I said I'd love to keep him. However, I still think the Bills view him as a rotational guy and aren't going to pay a lot for him. My larger point is that I think that there will be two teams out there desperate enough for a solid-quality DE who will represent an upgrade, and that's all Lawson will need to get paid. And he is in it to get paid at this point (rightly so).

I just think that someone is going to pay Lawson more than the Bills will be willing to. He's a role player for the Bills, and there are teams out there desperate for a competent DE (which he is). I suspect he's going to get paid.

They also need some good journeymen too, and they can easily afford Murphy and Yannick. Murphy is a well-functioning cog in a very good D, and he is disruptive even if the sack numbers don't show it. Not sure why Bills fans want to get rid of solidly functional players on an elite unit.