dave mcbride

I never judge RBs solely on rushing; pass catching is huge too in the modern NFL (and frankly has been since the days of Lydell Mitchell). He was a good receiver that year on a team with no receivers. Seriously, look at that group of receivers again. Just a joke.

I wouldn't call his 2017 season "disappointing" at all. He was a good receiver that year - 59 catches for 448 yards (7.6 ypr) and had 1600 yards total yards from scrimmage. Indeed, he was 4th in the league in yards from scrimmage! Sure, his ypc was down, but a ton of that had to do with the fact that the Bills had ZERO decent WRs and arguably their worst ' OC of the modern era calling plays.

Blank is clear in saying that he's not necessarily advocating expansion. This is obviously a shot across the bow - i.e., WNY needs to wake up because the option you thought was dead - a move to Toronto - ain't dead. Note that a) Blank is saying this right after Goodell made his comments, and b) Goodell is a mouthpiece not for himself, but for the owners who employ him.

And off we go! Expect a lot more of this. Just to clarify for people who somehow haven’t figured this out yet, but the owners are driving this, not Goodell. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/30/arthur-blank-mentions-expansion-when-asked-about-toronto/ “I think it’s a question of just trying to understand expansion and the implications — having it balanced,” [Arthur] Blank said. “You don’t want an odd number of teams; you’d want an even number of teams. How that would fall out [is crucial]. “I don’t think anyone questions the size of the Toronto market or the potential of the market. It’s a great market and a great sports city — a great sports city.” Asked to clarify that expansion would be a consideration, Blank said yes. “It could be, but I don’t think it has to be,” he said. “I do think the city could definitely support a team.”

I brought up that 1984 SB with a colleague at work earlier today when he asked my thoughts on the game! Worth noting that Garrapolo has a lot of SB prep experience too. He didn't play, of course, but he's been to a couple of them and you know BB had him ready if duty had called.

This.

"Poor man's Cam Newton" isn't a suggestion that he's bad. It's a suggestion that his game resembles Newton's -- which it does -- and that he's not as good as prime-era Newton. Which is also undeniably true.

You are right about 4.2 being middling. In my sampling, I seemed to randomly pick the teams below them at a disproportionate rate. I do disagree about the ypp being higher for bad teams because the bad teams - i.e., the Bengals, Redskins, etc. -- had such bad ypa numbers that it dramatically affects averages w/regard to yards per play. TB had an explosive offense that put up a ton of yards, and that happened in games they won and lost. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-pass-attempt Interestingly, Chicago was worst in the league. They spent a second overall pick on Trubisky with Mahomes (KC finished second) and Watson (Houston finished 12th) on the board. My word. I won't call him a bust yet because he has talent and is still young, but the early returns are not good.

Tampa Bay’s was over 2.0. Basically, if the qb has a high ypa rate, then the spread will be bigger. 4.2 ypc is upper end. Yeah, it was really bad - worst in the league with backs over 100 touches, if memory serves. Chris Carson led all backs wit 7 fumbles, but fumbled at a 2.2 percent rate (still bad). That said, Singletary was a rookie with a rep for not fumbling in college. If he contnues to fumble at that rate, he won’t be a Bill for long.

Actually, I randomly looked up one team metaphorically blindfolded: the Rams. They averaged 5.7 ypp and 3.7 ypc. So, no that's not right. EDIT: @BADOLBILZ - The Pats were 5.2 and 3.8. The Saints were 5.9 and 4.3. The Cowboys were 6.5 and 4.8. The Raiders were 5.9 and 4.3. The Texans were 5.7 and 4.6. Minnesota was 5.8 and 4.5. I stopped after that because the trend line makes it obvious: a spread of 1.6 is pretty normal.

91 of Damien Williams 498 yards came on one play this season.

My guess is that a spread like that is pretty typical given that passing plays generate more yards per play but at a higher risk. That's why fumbling is so unacceptable now - you're accepting you're going to get fewer yards through running, so you better not turn it over. Back in the old days, the great RBs fumbled at a rate between 2.5 and 3 percent (OJ, Franco Harris, Dorsett, Jim Brown ...). No one does now. If they did, they'd be out of the league.

This is misleading. It averages 6.2 ypp because of passing (Mahomes averages 8.3 ypp). He's averaging 4.6 ypc, which is in line with his historic rate (4.5) when he hasn't been saddled with an awful line. Williams also averaged 4.6 ypc. You're right about the fumbling. He's fumbling at 2.5 percent per touch rate this year, which is huge in this day and age. It's a true outlier, however, because historically he hasn't been a fumbler. He had zero fumbles on 195 touches last year. Prior to this season, he fumbled at a .077 percent rate, which is upper echelon.

Shady had 646 yards and 5 TDs on 129 touches (5.0 yards per touch), and Gore had 699 yards and 2 TDs on 179 touches (3.9 ypt).

The first part about the Chiefs' scouting process is interesting too. Also, Breer does a quick e v a l of the Bills' decision-making near the end. He's not damning.

@BADOLBILZ - Check this out re the Chiefs and Mahomes. Three teams had him in their sights: KC, NO, and AZ. https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/01/27/super-bowl-liv-49ers-chiefs-kobe-bryant-eli-manning-mmqb Then, it came time to move. Realistically, the Chiefs figured getting in the top five would be just about impossible, so they focused on figuring out who between six and 15 was a threat. Over a couple of months, and with a lot of information gathering, Veach & Co. ascertained that the Saints and Cardinals were Mahomes’s biggest fans. They were picking 11th and 13th, respectively. And after some fits and starts, the Chiefs pulled on another Reid relationship. Sitting at 10 were the Buffalo Bills and new head coach, Sean McDermott, a lieutenant of Reid’s for a dozen years in Philadelphia. With an established trust in place, and McDermott leading the football operation in Buffalo, the two coaches worked to hammer out a deal. After that, the Chiefs just needed him to fall to 10, which Mahomes did. And after that, Veach did get some confirmation that his information was good. “Listen, it’s only what you hear after the fact,” he said. “And I know that Andy and Sean [Payton] have talked, and Sean said, ‘Hey, you’re lucky you guys took him there or I’d have taken him at 11.’

Great post. This is the proper way to look at it. I think you need to look at the larger context, as per @Zerovoltz's post. The tweet is misleading. Why even ask, @eball? He offered up a quality post that enriched the discussion. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

@Bill from NYC - I think you need to differentiate between CBs and safeties. A lockdown CB is as important as a good LT in today's NFL. The problem with drafting McKelvin wasn't a positional one; it was drafting him over Aqib Talib. Now I know that Talib was and still is a borderline criminal, but he is an elite player who has helped multiple teams get to championship games and Super Bowls (NE, Denver, the Rams).

You really should read this, GB, if you haven’t already: https://torontosun.com/sports/football/nfl/kryk-most-top-nfl-qbs-played-shortstop-growing-up

It’s not an argument, or it least it shouldn’t be one. He has been objectively great since entering the league and had one of the most efficient seasons ever for a qb this year.

Um ... I think it's more about the drinking on a Sunday night and having to go to work the next day ...

Awesome stuff. I love the point about getting more height on the deep balls. It'll give the receivers more of a chance. not an emoji, but good enough: https://giphy.com/gifs/yeaaaaaaa-pkY4ra5dhljDW

Interesting fact: Lamonica started the Immaculate Reception game and was benched after going 6-18 for 45 yards and 2 picks. Stabler wasn't much better, going 6-12 for 57 yards, 3 sacks, and 2 fumbles. Still, the Raiders absolutely should have won that game and would have if not for the craziest (and arguably most controversial; it's up there with the tuck rule and the Robey-Coleman play) play in NFL history.

Newsflash: Frequent and longtime posters on a Bills fan board are disproportionately more likely than casual fans to care a lot about franchise history and raise it as a topic of discussion. Embrace it.

Not really true about Kelly. Rating+ (scroll down) measures how you stand against the league-average for QB play in that season, with 100 being average. Kelly was above average (and well above average a couple of times) every season except for his final season: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KellJi00.htm. Manning, who SHOULD ABSOLUTELY get in, was above average 8 times and below average 8 times. He was never well above average: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannEl00.htm. It's a great measure because it allows you to get past comparing QBs from different eras. An 85 rating in the early 1980s was very good. Today, it puts you near the bottom.