dave mcbride

The catch rates were effectively the same in 2019 and 2020, so what you’re saying doesn’t really matter. As a Buffalo Bill over two seasons with the same OC and the same QB, his catch rate has been the same. And if you want to do a really deep dive, bear in mind that his worst season in this regard by far, 2017 (38.2 percent), Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert started most of the games. They are bad qbs, and they were running a Bruce Arians offense that pushes the ball downfield. Stanton completed under 50 percent of his passes and Gabbert was at 55.6. Also, prior to Jackson becoming the QB in mid-late 2018, he had caught 34 balls on 67 throws. Granted, that’s barely above 50 percent, but he was also averaging 9 yards per pass attempt (601 yards on 67 throws), which is awesome. Afterward, Jackson targeted him 29 times and completed only 6 passes (a 21 percent catch rate). Anyway, context -- the qb, the system, etc. -- matters. Again, though, I agree with you that he probably will not be back. If he is out because of injury he stops being active. It’s not like he’s not getting snaps or not being targeted. He can’t play, simply put. If a player starts and goes down on the first play because of injury, it seems ridiculous to me to say that he played the game. He didn’t. Yet the stat sheet will say he played that game. Brown was functionally inactive for over a half vs. the Rams and most of a quarter vs. AZ. He wasn't hurt vs. Miami, but he didn’t play after halftime (presumably because they were concerned about re-injury).

Hapless — he came out (injury) in the first half of the rams game, missed most of the fourth quarter of the AZ game (injury again), and didn’t play in the second half of the miami game. Hence my estimation of 8 games.

Oh please. In the Bills system—i.e., the one he is playing in NOW—he catches the ball at a 63 percent rate. Also, I suggest you look at the deep throw rates in Arians offenses. They are off the charts, and he was their bomb guy for Palmer. Context actually matters. Also, while I absolutely agree with you Allen’s bomb accuracy issues, on more conventional deep throws (ie, the 25 yard throw on a rope), he is elite.

First off, while with the Bills he has averaged a 63 percent catch rate, so your numbers don’t make sense to me. Secondly, deep threats who get tossed bombs ALWAYS have lower catch rates than guys who catch short throws, and Bruce Arians pushes the ball deep more often than any other offensive coach in the league. Also, his catch rate plummeted when Lamar Jackson replaced Flacco, a good deep ball thrower (see the 2018 game logs: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowJo02/gamelog/). This is what accounts for his lifetime catch rate and nothing else. For comparison, look at RB catch rates; they’re usually around 75 percent plus. But RBs don’t take the top off of a defense and force the safeties to play deep. Brown is a currently better player than Davis (who I like; don’t get me wrong), who can’t really move his hips fluidly—which limits him coming out of cuts (just compare him to Diggs and Beasley)—and isn’t fast. (Also, bear in mind that Davis’s stats this year were skewed by two deep Barkley bombs in the finale vs. Miami in garbage time.) Davis is good at contested catches and jump balls, which is good, but remember that Daboll’s scheme is predicated on throwing windows to open guys, not contested throws. Having said all of this, I don’t expect Brown back. The Bills are cap strapped, and they have make some hard choices. And I won’t be surprised if they draft a speed guy in the third round or so. Also, Brown can go elsewhere and on some teams will be the best receiver available (ie, Jax, NE).

These stats are HIGHLY misleading. Brown essentially played in only 8 games and had 34 catches for 458 yards. Extrapolated to 16 games, that’s 68 catches for 916 yards and 6 TDs. He hasn’t been injury prone in his career, so it’s not a good idea to assume he’ll be hampered by injury again next year. He got hurt in the first half of the Rams game and again in the Cardinals game (after catching 6 balls for 72 yards), so he really played 8 full games. He also didn’t play in the second half of the finale.

He was a legitimately good qb in 2019. He has the tools, but something happened mentally to him this past season. He’s fixable and a potential franchise qb. Do you have a link to support the claim that his teammates “hated him”?

That’s terrible. It also has begin to convince me that the Chiefs may lose because of the outside distractions. Remember the 1989 bengals-niners super bowl when Stanley Wilson got arrested before the game and the 1999 SB when Eugene Robinson got arrested during SB week? It’s a real distraction, as is this. Plus KC had the covid stuff going on with the barber and they are missing their 2 starting tackles (while facing two of the best edge rushers in the league). Great minds think alike! See my post above.

Good point. His stats were abjectly terrible in 1972 by today’s standards, but if you look at his adjusted passer rating that year, it’s 100 — which is exactly league average: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTe00.htm. Another example that shows you can’t judge stats from that era using today’s stats as a benchmark. That said, he really wasn’t any good until 1975 (judged against his peers), his sixth season. After that, he was one of the league’s elite qbs. In those early years, the Steelers had a dominant run game and one of the best defenses ever. Maybe the best ever, in fact. Also, he was benched for a time in 1973: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/remember-when-joe-gilliam-takes-terry-bradshaws-starting-qb-job/. .

Where do folks place Justin Herbert on this spectrum? I ask because along with Russell Wilson in 2012 and maybe Marino in 1983, that was the most impressive rookie season for a qb I’ve seen.

Be careful there. If Garrapolo doesn’t overthrow that bomb to Emmanuel Sanders by 2 feet, we’re having a different conversation. The disparity in SF’s record when Garrapolo starts and when he doesn’t is very stark.

Palmer finished 5th in the league in MVP voting in his second season. He led the league in TD passes and completion percentage.

Agreed, but @jeremy2020 specified top 10 draft picks. I hesitate to put Collins, who was one, in their given that the Panthers got to the NFC championship game in his second season.

Interesting take. It's got me thinking too - which top 10 QBs didn't produce for their first three years and then flourished a few years later, either for the team that drafted them or elsewhere? I can think of Jim Plunkett, Steve Young, Terry Bradshaw, Tannehill (not sure if he fits; he was never really that bad) and Alex Smith. Steve Bartkowski (questionable, but he did have a couple of very good seasons 6-7 years after he was drafted #1 overall), Vinnie Testaverde (similar), and Jeff George (believe it or not, similar) all semi-qualify too. Maybe Sam Bradford? He played pretty well over the course of 17 games for Minnesota before getting hurt again. Maybe not. Anyway, your larger point stands: it's basically a sea of continued failure going back decades for top ten picks who fail out of the gate: http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb.

Good point. Let's talk about Tom Brady instead!

Albert Breer writes about it in his column. He says it's conceivable it gets to $195 million depending on tv contract negotiations before the start of the NFL year. Whoops - I misread the piece. Breer says the league wants to get as close as possible to $198.2 million (the current cap) via new broadcast deals, but the deals have to come into effect before the beginning of the league year.

That's not really true with regard to Seattle. He was a disruptive player who affected games there. Last year not so much, though.

The piece GunnerBill links to above is excellent. I recommend it.

Yes, this. Clowney was very disruptive in Seattle, and he was terrific in Houston. He may be falling off a cliff now, however. And the lack of bend that good edge rushers all have and which the article points out makes a lot of sense. I'm leery. This was very eye-opening, by the way:

This is actually a great piece. Good mailbag responses at the end too.

My wife Leah actually works with a couple of the companies mentioned in the piece (Fine & Raw Chocolate and OddFellows Ice Cream). She flagged it for me. Props to her.

I actually went to that game and sat 20 rows up at the 40 yard line behind the Bills bench. We paid face value for the tickets too (long story). Anyway, it is DEEPLY etched in my memory.

That post does not say who the busts were. I just read it again. That's what I was responding too. If you posted that info elsewhere, I didn't think to chase it down (and nor would I ever do that).

Not true. He played well into the second quarter (he left with seven minutes to go) and turned the ball over three times, once in his own end zone and once in the Cowboys end zone. He was playing horribly.

George Burns is an anecdote, not representative of any sort of trend. Schottenheimer may well have gotten Alzheimer's for reasons other than football, but he was diagnosed with in 2014 - when he 70. That's pretty young for Alzheimer's. The average age for onset is 80. Bear in mind he played in an era with pretty bad helmets and pretty vicious head shots.

There's fishing at 7 pm in early February??