dave mcbride

Not to turn this into a Sabres thread, but I follow them in only the most peripheral of ways and am wondering what the hell is going on. Bear in mind that I know very little (I followed them closely as a kid, but that was a very, very long time ago). In a nutshell, what is wrong with them? Don't they have a ton of elite-level draft picks? Isn't that guy Dahlin supposed to be a transcendental talent? More broadly, isn't it nearly impossible mathematically to fail to make the playoffs for ten years straight in the NHL? What gives?

I totally agree about that. But he was clutch. They were down 28-13 in the 4th, and then while the Cowboys are driving he throws a pick to micah hyde on a wide receiver screen. The game looks over, but after the rodgers INT, he throws two more TD passes, rushes for a 2-pt conversion to tie the game at 28, and then leads them to a fg to tie it again at 31 with 40 seconds left.

Just no. There is far greater than zero percent chance he goes postal again given past history. No need for that hassle.

I watched the game. He played really well, bringing them back from a 28-13 deficit to tie the game (and then bringing them back to tie it again to tie it at 31). A 5 percent sack rate isn’t bad at all, and the pick he threw was followed by a Rodgers pick on the next series. It was one of those games in which whoever had the ball last was likely to win. And that’s what happened. It was a shootout.

This is where you lose me: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201701150dal.htm. GB won that game because of a ridiculous catch late in the game. Prescott was phenomenal in that game and did what he had to do to. This is one of those examples is where qb won-loss records loses its shine; look at what actually happened before opining. It’s like Pat Mahomes 5-7 “won-loss” record in his final year in college: his team lost two games in which his offense put up 55 points and 3 other games where they put up 44, 38, and 37 points. That team record has literally nothing to do with the qb.

These aren't arguments. They're loose correlations that don't account for causation.

Agree with most of this, but Chris Jones abuses almost everyone. He's one of the very best interior d-linemen in the league. He had a 90.3 rating from PFF, which is extremely high (he was a first-team PFF all-pro). My point is, don't judge a guy's performance off of a game facing either Donald or Jones. They're likely to get abused if they're not Quinton Nelson. Here's their write-up, which matches what I saw: This season the spot of “best interior defensive lineman after Aaron Donald” goes to Chris Jones, who finished the season with the second-best PFF pass-rushing grade (93.1) of any rusher. Jones notched 60 total pressures for the season as well as a couple of forced fumbles, and at his best can wreak the kind of havoc that Donald does on the inside. The only thing separating the two players is the volume of pressure that Donald gets by comparison, and Donald has been more consistent against the run this year.

No, I know, but anything can happen in the playoffs, and Dallas's offense with him in there was extremely explosive. I'd far prefer to play Wash/NYG/Philly than a Dak-led Dallas in the playoffs.

I don't think it was as bad this past season. Seriously. It could be that the refs have put him in the team-captain elder statesman category, and aren't harassing him as much as a consequence.

2-3? Sure. But they lost one of those games because they couldn't cover a freakin' onside kick and ended up losing in the most embarrassing of fashions. None of that loss had to do with Prescott, who had a huge game.

If he hadn't gotten injured, I firmly believe Dallas would have won the NFC East this year.

6 sacks in his last 4 playoff games. Postseason performance, baby.

I think Fields is fool's gold. Heaving it up vs. bad Clemson DBs who were regularly beaten like a drum deep is not a sign that a qb is good. Matt Barkley is excellent at the deep air ball too as long as the receiver beats his man. Fields is inaccurate and runs a super-simplified scheme. So did Payton Manning in college. It's not always the QB's fault. In the LSU game, Clemson faced a once-in-a-lifetime offensive-talent juggernaut. And on the other side, Lawrence needed to put up 50 just to have a chance in a game against a defense in which 9-10 starters were going to end up as NFL draft picks.

They have minimized it because it causes more injuries than any other play in the league.

Anything that reduces the kicker's role in the game is something I can get behind! They did it to reduce injury. The old school onside kick -- particularly the scrum tactic -- had the highest rate of injury of any play in the league. I'm not for injuries. I do think 4th and 15 is too easy. I'd make it 4th and 20.

This is not accurate. In 2012, the Texans were second in defensive DVOA. In 2014, they were 6th. In 2015, they were 7th. In 2018, they were 5th. These were all seasons in which he was an all-pro. Also, if you look at PFR's AV (approximate value) stat (akin to WAR), he was the top performer in the entire league in 2012, 2014, and 2015.

Suh had a very good season, fwiw. I still regard him as basically elite. At some point, he'll drop off, but I have no idea when that will happen. He played very well in the SB. Him at ~$6 million would be an absolute steal and a major upgrade.

You might want to do a little research. Just saying.

This is false. In 2012, the Texans were second in defensive DVOA. In 2014, they were 6th. In 2015, they were 7th. In 2018, they were 5th. These were all seasons in which he was an all-pro. Also, if you look at PFR's AV (approximate value) stat (akin to WAR), he was the top performer in the entire league in 2012, 2014, and 2015.

I get all of this, but he turned SF into a well-oiled dominator in 2019 and oversaw a great Falcons offense in that SB season. Yeah, they lost, but it wasn't as if they lost to bad teams; they were great teams. And the games were obviously extremely close. The 2016 Falcons were #1 overall in offense and the 2019 Niners' offense was #2 in points and #4 in yards. He's doing something right. And let's not forget that both of those teams blew teams out in the playoffs during those SB years. I can't get hung up on one or two plays. With regard to Kingsbury, the Cardinals' showing at the end of this season was beyond pathetic. I guarantee you that if he had done that in Buffalo, the fans on this site would have ridden him out of town on a rail.

This is hot take central, Alpa. And you know I respect you as a poster. Judge the full body of work.

What are you talking about? SF almost took the lead with less than two minutes to go. Garappolo slightly overthrew Sanders; otherwise it'd have been six. Regardless, if you're complaining about a coach losing a very close super bowl as opposed to an offensive-minded coach (Kingsbury) leading a team to 19 total points in the final two weeks of the 2020 season when the playoffs were in the Cards' grasp, I don't know what to say.

Yeah, that's not happening.

A healthy 49ers squad is a lot better than AZ. They have a far better coach, a great offensive scheme, and a better defense. They will be healthy next year. Garrapolo is pretty underrated too; he knows how to manage a team to victory (and that is not meant as a criticism). It's as if people forget he was actually excellent in just about every stat category in 2019: 69.1 completion pct WHILE averaging 8.4 ypa, 4,000 yards passing, 102.0 rating, and a 27-13 TD/INT ratio.

They are not a bad team, but if I had to predict now, I see them as a last place team next year. My rough prediction: LA: 12-4 SF: 11-5/12-4 Seattle: 10-6/11-5 AZ: 8-8/7-9