dave mcbride

I think Wentz's season last year isn't really being seen correctly. Yes, he was terrible, but if you look at the past five seasons including this one, last year was the outlier. Wentz's production this season is squarely in line with his production between 2017-19, when he was at least a moderately above-average QB. His performance this year looks like a pretty simple case of regression to the median: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WentCa00.htm. He has a 17/3 TD/INT ratio, which is excellent. The ratio was 27/7 (also excellent) in 2019, a year in which he carried a decimated team on his back to the playoffs. I know @GunnerBill really thinks he stinks now, but the results suggest otherwise.

The fish rots from the head. They have a very bad owner, just like the Knicks.

You may laugh, but divisional games can be tougher than one expects and Jax is playing teams tough now for the most part. They put 454 yards (198 rushing) vs TN earlier this season: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202110100jax.htm. TN will probably win, but I don’t see it as a gimme. Miami is kinda the same deal. But yeah, on paper it’s a pretty easy schedule overall.

You kind of have to root for the Pats because vs. the Pats, the Bills can control their own destiny. Vs. Tennessee, they can't. They need help.

This is a phenomenal interview. He has some great takes on the Jets too. Recommended. I recommend watching it. There’s a lot of other good stuff in it. In particular, he has a long and convincing explanation about why lining up under center a lot more would probably do the Bills offense some good.

Um … the Bills moved in the draft to take Josh Allen.

Nearly impossible to predict injury. He was healthy in college and one of the best college receivers I've ever seen. He didn't pan out, but he was 100 percent a surefire first round talent. He has flashed it at times too, but he has so had so many nagging injuries -- hamstrings, thigh, ribs, ankle, etc. -- over the years that it doesn't show up in the stats.

Now you know how the Italians feel about the Russian “mafiya.”

People said that about Tampa Bay, and then the smart money guys bet a fortune on the home team. It absolutely matters. You think Jax wins in Buffalo?? And bear in mind that Bills fans were out in force in Jax.

Fine with me! The last team i want to face in the SB is the Rams in their home stadium.

Did you watch the Bills vs Jax? Bad games happen. I still see them ending up 13-4.

Rico, gotta disagree with you. Stafford got that team to the playoffs three times pretty much on his own, and we are talking about the worst org in pro sports. And they lost a playoff game in the worst possible way to the Cowboys: utterly egregious officiating. They had that game won with competent refs.

Not tonight only. We want them to beat NE too.

The Jags had worse drops than us: a terrible drop of a perfect TD pass and later a drop of an excellent pass from Lawrence that would have put them at the five yard line late in the game.

Yeah, and he says that in the interview I sent. He talks about outlier seasons where everything comes together and which are never reproduced. He doesn't say that Allen is destined for that at all, but simply says that's why he holds off on judgments after just one great season. I think that's a fair approach. Allen hasn't been as good this season as last, but he's still pretty darn good. He's literally down in every statistical category from last year except sack percentage and INT percentage, although the difference between this season and last season in the latter category is negligible: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm. Stil a ways to go, of course.

Yeah, offseason. I'm just saying that I don't think he's reflexively opposed to Josh Allen.

start watching at the 7:50 mark: https://www.buffalobills.com/video/kurt-warner-i-still-think-josh-has-room-to-grow

Disagree. I thought it was fair. Allen has a terrible game even factoring in line play. I don’t think that’s actually arguable. This is kind of a false narrative. Warner has had complimentary videos about Allen in the past.

Getting back on track here, but my guess is that they signed him to get intel on the Bills. They play each other soon. Happens all the time in the NFL.

I’d love to see that link because that was one of the worst performances I’ve seen by a single offensive lineman for the Bills in decades upon decades of watching this team. When he wasn’t getting destroyed, he was blocking the wrong person. Did PFF give him extra high grades for triple teaming one DT while the other one had a free run to Allen?

Ferentz was a coach for Belichick in Cleveland and is close with him. May be a case of a low talent player benefiting from his dad’s connection to BB.

Because the line is blocking so poorly that they are getting hit immediately. They did bust a cover 2 last season vs NE when they ground the Pats into dust. The Pats were playing to stop the pass all game. The line has really been playing badly. I will confess to really liking Moss’s game - he is a downhill, punishing runner, but the situation right now sucks for him. Put him on the Browns as a starter, and people would be talking pro bowl for him.

In Marshawn Lynch’s final season and a half in Buffalo, many people on this board said he was too slow and not really all that good. It turns out that the advanced stats showed that he led all RBs the league in being hit behind the LOS in terms of percentage. People were happy to see him go not just for the off-field stuff, but because they felt he was mediocre and a worse player than Fred Jackson. Lynch will be in the HOF eventually. You see where I’m going with this. The Bills RBs aren’t the real problem.

No, then that would be negative yardage. Basically, the backs are getting hit behind the LOS about half the time, which averages out to just north of zero.

? - please explain with at least rudimentary analysis.