dave mcbride

Was it that crossing pattern in the third quarter when the ball was out in front of him by a fair bit?

He had the same issue last year on deep throws. His longtime issue is that he puts very little arc on his deep throws (his arm strength is that strong and he doesn't really need to), which means they need to be pinpoint because otherwise receivers don't have time to adjust to the ball. In the type of weather he's been playing in though, throwing Russell Wilson rainbows that receivers can adjust to is simply a non-starter given how much the wind will either hold it up or push it forward if it's high up there. He threw an absolute dime to Diggs on a ball that went probably 35 yards in the air yesterday but Diggs was pushed out by Echols and never got the second foot down. It was still a perfect throw, however.

I honestly think that Wilson held the ball too long in many cases because he was afraid to throw it into the wind and risk a pick. Which just goes to show how much weather affects these games. The weather yesterday was truly terrible for offenses going into the wind. Hyde said afterward that it was insane. Of the 37 points scored yesterday, 34 were scored with the wind at the offense's back. The only time a team scored going into the wind was because Allen marched them down the field (mostly throwing the ball because he's Josh Allen) on an 81 yard drive at the end of the first half. In the first and fourth quarters, the Bills scored 24 points and Allen was 12-15 with two TDs. Take away the one TD throw by Wilson going with the wind in the second quarter, and the Jets had negative 40 passing yards.

One could argue that it's a team game and the league's best defense had at least something do with that 3-0 record.

The Falcons game was very cold, which led to a bunch of drops.

Oh, I get it, but that stuff doesn't show up in any statistical assessment even though you and I both know it matters. Opponents' collective team passer rating in these same three games: 50.6. It's what I've been saying all along - the Bills passer rating differential has been 20+ in virtually every scenario you can concoct in long stretches of games. It doesn't really vary much. I think you're kind of missing my point ...

They don't, though -- you just have to look at all of the stats in combination and with a different perspective.

More than that - if you factor his rushing plays into his performance as a QB (see above; I edited it), the numbers go way up.

Over the final three games, Allen's passing numbers were terrible, statistically speaking: 73.9 passer rating 5.7 ypa 53.4% completion rate Yet in those three games he also was not sacked a single time and ran for 214 yards on 27 non-kneel down carries -- good for 71.3 ypg and an 7.9 rushing ypa (plus 2 rushing TDs and no fumbles). The Bills won all of these games by at least 12 points. Indeed, if you treat his rushing plays simply as completed pass plays at 7.9 ypa, his rating goes up to 86.8 -- 62% completion rate and 6.1 ypa overall, with 7 TDs and 3 TOs (again no fumbles and no lost yardage). Statistically, he has been extremely hard to judge this season - a true outlier. In terms of advanced passing stats, he was literally league average: 100 using PFR's advanced passing stat system, in which is 100 is average. Yet he led the league in rushing ypa and was sacked at a rate of 3.9 percent, which is really low given what the sack rate would have been for practically any other QB in the league playing behind this line. The other notable stat: The Bills' team passer rating for the entire season was 91.3 and the opponent passer rating against our D was 65.3 -- a ridiculously high disparity of 26 points. In these last three games, opponents' team pass rating is 50.6.

The last line here is good:: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/01/10/absentee-ownership-directly-contributes-to-weird-outcomes-like-the-firing-of-brian-flores/.

I think this is a very good take from Florio and it addresses the real issue: a bad, absentee owner: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/01/10/absentee-ownership-directly-contributes-to-weird-outcomes-like-the-firing-of-brian-flores/

If we do that, then we probably won't be enjoying the advantage that comes with opponents who only put up only 5 total passing yards against us a week after putting up 224 total passing yards vs. the Super Bowl champ Bucs.

Not last season.

Ross is a bad owner. That explains it, I think.

Ha.

Wow.

The Bills’ D finished the season number one in points allowed - surpassing the Pats - by a little and in yards allowed by a LOT.

That was just inexcusable.

No. Just no. The weather was awful, and the opponent couldn’t handle it at all. Always factor in the broader context — that is, how the conditions affect the opponent too. The Bills had literally 8 times the number of yards as the Jets. Think about that.

Weather matters. The Jets had 5 pass passing yards total and 53 overall.

I honestly think Louis Riddick is the most insightful color guy on the air right now (in terms of breaking down plays). And he’s not as full of himself (to the point of doing nepotistic hires) as Collinsworth. Finally, he has a good delivery.

You’re banking a lot on the idea that football players make business decisions based on domes and weather. I find that implausible. Players want to win, they want to start, and they want to get paid. That’s pretty much it. Also, when it comes to free agency, no team is dumb enough to base payment decisions on raw stats. The Pats, Jets, Giants, Browns, and Packers have had no problem attracting and competing for free agents in recent years. I am pretty sure you have no evidence for this supposition, yet you bring it up a lot.

Wilkerson was awesome - right up until he got paid.

Between 2009 and 2019, the Jets spent five first round picks on d-linemen.

Absolutely terrible secondary. You can't win with that sort of secondary no matter how good the front seven. It's really the secondary. Opposing teams have a passer rating of 104.7 against them.