dave mcbride

Close! Also close! Awesome!

And that was a really good throw to Diggs too. It was just well defended.

That first one was bad, but here is how I view turnovers. While you never want them, the stat that matters most is points off of turnovers or points subtracted due to turnovers. That is, if the defense scores off a turnover, that’s obviously points off turnovers. However, if you’re in FG range and turn it over, that’s -3 points (you can never assume a TD). If you turn it over between the 45 yard lines, you’re not in scoring position and not really putting the other team in scoring position (although it’s good field position). If they don’t score, it’s basically a wash and has no impact on the game. That is exactly what happened last night. The Saints couldn’t get a first and turned it over on downs. The Bills ended up with it right where they left off. Anyway, those mid-field turnovers—assuming there’s no big return—are the least damaging from a points perspective. Also of note, Diggs made a really good tackle there. That’s one of those little things that doesn’t get mentioned enough.

No, it should be one yard and is for a reason—it doesn’t penalize you for destroying the defender in front of you and moving him back on a good block.

Just sayin’. This is a matchup league and the matchups favored the Bills overwhelmingly. I saw that you also chastised @Success for predicting a blowout of the Jets. I can’t speak for him, but I assume it his prediction was based on matchups. Fwiw, I thought the Bills would lose to the Colts because … matchups.

We can agree to disagree on this one.

Happy, I just disagree with you here. The safety on that side was playing tighter than the other one all the way through that play and was just waiting to jump on it. It was not a good decision in my book. The outlet receiver at the top of the screen (on AllenLs left) had a pretty easy 7 yard pick up there.

Thought you might be interested in this bit from Mark Gaughan’s piece in the BN today: ”When is a drop not a drop? Sports Info Solutions credited the Bills with seven drops vs. the Colts. Pro Football Focus had six. The Buffalo News had four. Every ball a receiver gets his fingers on is not a drop. The pass late in the second quarter for Zack Moss was too short. The slant for Cole Beasley on a slant early in the third quarter was too high. Nevertheless, the Bills had only 10 drops the previous nine games combined.”

Did you actually watch it? Palmer makes some good points, particularly about his short-range throws with super-high velocity. We’re seeing drops because the ball is simply coming in too fast at times; it’s not the fault of the receiver always. Palmer also states emphatically that he loves Allen. That is not what he said. At all. There were shorter options on that play that would have gotten them into FG range. He didn’t take them and threw it into the teeth of a two-deep zone with a lurking safety. And yes, a punt that nailed them deep would have been better than the INT.

The Saints aren't going to approach 30 points unless the Bills turn it over a lot. Trevor Siemien is not good, and they have a ton of injuries.

Who is going to run the ball for them and who will replace their starting OT and TE?

This sounds very accurate to me. Can't wait to see him break it down in more detail. He's terrific.

I hear ya, but I just have a feeling about this one. I think the coaches mailed it in regarding schemes vs. Jax because they didn't want to reveal much in what they expected would be a blowout (note that they stayed with the same pass-happy spread approach all game in a low-scoring dog fight), but it blew up in their faces. I think they're smart enough now to treat every week as a do-or-die situation. They are just a better team than NO and have their backs against the wall. Plus they're pretty healthy and NO definitely isn't.

I'd like to see more Breida, honestly - more like 50/50. If you look at their career production through their first three seasons, it's pretty similar. Singletary in 38 games has 1877 yards at 4.8 ypc and 92 receptions for 577 yards (6.3 yards per reception). In his three seasons with the 49ers (42 games), Breida had 1902 yards at 5.0 ypc and 64 receptions for 561 yards (8.4 yards per reception). Point is, he has carried a similar load in the very recent past, and whereas Singletary fumbled it 10 times in that period, Breida fumbled 4 times. And there's of course that speed - 4.38 - which can't be coached.

I'm thinking more of Breida vs. Moss, but point taken. The Bills really have no excuses for not winning by at least two scores. This is a total mismatch on paper.

I hate to say this, but ... Williams (age 29) just got paid, and it's going to probably be his last big contract (3 years/$24 million with $13.75 million in guarantees). Football is a rough, rough sport, especially in the trenches, and he wouldn't be the first player to lose a little motivation once he got his last big contract. I'm not saying that's what happened, but I have no other explanation. He's been bad this season on the edge.

I hear you, but he is a legit good pass blocker. That may seem like a secondary task, but having a matador RB in on pass protect can lead to some very bad outcomes. The RB's primary job is to move the ball forward as far as possible when it's in his hands, but with a shaky o-line that last line of defense can become very important (especially for pass heavy teams like the Bills). I don't know how good of a blocker Breida is. He was on the field a lot for a very good pass protect team in 2018 (SF), for what it's worth, but I don't know anything more than that. At the end of the day, though, the dude has 4.38 speed and needs to be on the field.

There are a lot of blowouts in the NFL. Of the 15 games last week, the margin of victory was 9 or more in 9 of the games (60 percent). Sometimes it's OK to assume that the better team is going to win by two scores over a badly injured unit.

After the Broncos loss to the Bills in 2017: All week, Siemian and the Broncos faced questions about the strength of Buffalo's defensive front, but it wasn't just that group of Bills defenders that came up big. "I always say it doesn't really matter what coverage you play when you have a good front and get pressure, but they did a great job mixing up looks, a lot of different things," Siemian said. "They started running some man coverage. When they played zone, they played it the right way; they knew where all their help was. And that front comes and gets you, so they're tough to deal with." https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/siemian-says-turnovers-made-for-missed-opportunities-vs-bills-19440421

Siemien performed badly against McDermott's scheme in 2017. 58.2 rating and he was fooled more than once.

Possibly stupid question: will this impact next year's salary cap, or is it all wrapped up in the NFL's insurance policy and not connected to team revenue? By my calculation, it's about $25 million per team.

Mark Gaughan wrote the following yesterday, btw. I thought it looked a bit short too, although maybe it could have been caught. Regardless, the ball wasn't where it needed to be if he was going to make a play: "Running backs (2.5): Too bad the Bills couldn’t have stayed within 10 points of the Colts and employed the running game more. Matt Breida had two more runs of 10-plus yards (they went for 28 and 16). He needs to stay in the active lineup. The Bills had a few nice pin-and-pull run plays. Maybe going to that more often, using the mobility of the line in space, can help take some pressure off Allen moving forward. After further review, Zach Moss didn’t drop the pass late in the second quarter. The throw was short." PS - Happy Days posted this. SIS is what the WSJ was using for their piece on the struggles of Mahomes and Allen this season:

My sense is that the distrust of Breida stems from the fact that he’s a poor pass blocker. Moss is actually pretty good at that aspect of the game.

McDermott is making game day decisions on roster. Full stop.

You do realize that Beane isn't making game-day roster decisions, right?