dave mcbride

Last year, opponents had an 82.24 rating in Orchard Park (well below league average) and over 90 when the Bills played on the road. The Bills played some very good QBs at home last year too (Mahomes, Wilson, Herbert, Goff, Roethlisberger). Allen's passer rating at home last year was over 100 -- a differential of nearly 20. In the postseason last year, over two games opponents had a 77.3 rating and the Bills team passer rating was 95.2. Again, differential is what matters. Basically, over this season, last season, and the 2020 playoffs, the Bills team passer rating differential advantage hovers at around 20 in every instance.

He has had a good season, no doubt. But in four instances -- NE at home, TN, TB, Jax -- he has been in position to win the game and hasn't gotten it done. Vs NE and Jax, he threw to the wrong receiver; against TN, he ran a very predictable sneak that TN read easily; and against TB he threw a high, low-percentage throw to Diggs, who is not a jump-ball guy. Sure, he was interfered with, but Diggs pushed too. Chris Simms faulted the Bills for that play call, and I agree with him. The point is, he made those plays last year (Rams, Cardinals). They lost the Cardinals game, but Allen did his job to put them in the lead.

Well, a safety leads to what is basically a punt. A punter even kicks the ball away too.

Weather has affected our opponents more negatively than the Bills. Our opponents' collective team passer rating through 8 home games this season is 60.9. Totally agree.

How are the opponents' home/road splits when it comes to playing in Orchard Park? The differential is what matters, not Allen's numbers without surrounding context.

Makes a ton of sense, actually.

Huh? Allen is good this year, but he was definitely better last season. I mean, the record tells the tale: 13-3 vs 10-6, and this year's defense is a lot better than last season's. He also hasn't come through in crunch time once this season. That wasn't the case last year.

He’s quite injured right now.

The Bills' passing game is better in Buffalo weather than our opponents' passing game is. That's what matters.

Just did the math for 2021: the rating for opposing QBs in Buffalo in 2021 through 8 games is 60.9. The Bills have a massive positive rating differential of over 20 (you have to factor in sack yardage lost into team passer rating, so it'll be a little less than 85.8 for the Bills). Anyway, the differential is over 20. That is huge. With regard to Buffalo weather, what's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander: opponents have to play in it too. In 2020 and 2021, when Allen's rating became a thing, they will be 15-4 at home including the playoffs assuming they beat the Jets.

The most predictive stat of team success in the NFL is team passer rating differential. What's the differential in the Bills home games during Allen's time here between the Bills and their opponents? That is truly all that matters. https://www.si.com/more-sports/2011/06/23/most-importantstatpasserratingdifferential

Indy has lost 6 in a row in Jacksonville going back to 2015. Crazy but true.

I always figured that the tuck rule was karmic payback for the roughing call on Sugar Bear Hamilton. (It was such a bad call given that era, although it'd be called roughing nowadays). Ben Dreith was the ref and is hated to this day in New England. They even mentioned it in a Buff News piece from last year! https://buffalonews.com/sports/football/sunday-playbook-referee-ben-dreith-remembered-for-raiders-pats-call-and-kelly-getting-the-business/article_e4c05fd6-fde4-11ea-af8f-33d1bdbaa5bd.html

I'm not necessarily saying it was the wrong call -- you have to throw it down the field on occasion. But Diggs was covered and Knox was wide open and would have gotten the first down. That's all I'm saying.

I thought he threw it too hard, but reasonable minds can disagree. The larger issue is that early in that game, too many were coming out too fast. My view is that he may have been acting a little cocky after threading the needle on that early high-velocity throw to Davis. Davis got it it in his breadbasket, however, and didn't need to reach out. The pass thrown that resulted in the PI on Diggs at the goal line seemed to be thrown too hard as well (although it didn't matter). Anyway, it really is harder to catch a football in sub-freezing damp weather, and putting too much mustard on it only accentuates that problem. All in all, Allen looked like a guy who had been reading his own press clippings after the NE performance: reckless and a little arrogant. Hopefully next week he's a little more careful.

The bomb to Diggs. Knox was wide open for a 20-yard gain.

The fact that he looks like a schlub won't help his cause on some teams. Unfair but it's a fact of life. That said, Matt Patricia, who has a very similar background -- both have engineering degrees from excellent schools; both worked for the Pats; both were coordinators; both look like schlubs -- got a HC job.

They almost did. https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2018/04/josh_allen_and_baker_mayfield.html

They ran two slants to Diggs yesterday in the EZ! The first was dropped (on a ball that was probably thrown too hard) and the second was the PI on Diggs that gave the Bills a first and goal at the 1.

I highly doubt that Daboll will get a head coaching gig. It's going to be very hard for any owner/GM to sell him to a fan base as an "answer" who inspires confidence. He has the look of a coordinator lifer to me.

Be careful what you wish for. I don't Daboll is the greatest OC in the history of the game, mind you, but I do think he's above average.

And a 16 mph wind. Nasty. Honestly, that's good for the Jets. The weather can be an equalizer, but you'd think by this point that Allen would be acclimated to it given that he's playing in it nearly every week, it seems. Honestly, though, the temp will be dropping pretty quickly, so that by 5 pm or so it might be below 32. The low for that day is 20 and the low for the next day is 12, so factor in declining temps throughout the day.

Actually, that's not correct about Newton. His injury woes stem from passing plays. This is the hit by TJ Watt in November 2018 which completely messed up his shoulder: https://in.pinterest.com/pin/345721708892109451/ and https://www.si.com/nfl/panthers/gm-report/a-timeline-of-the-cam-newton-saga. Also, he said he screwed up his AC joint in his throwing shoulder in 2015 when trying to make a tackle after throwing a pick: https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2021/07/09/cam-newton-details-what-really-happened-with-the-health-of-his-shoulder/. The later 2018 injury was the far more serious one though. Anyway, his bad injuries that ruined his career came on throwing plays, not running plays.

Early forecast for that weekend: Sat 15 31°/23° Snow Showers 36% WSW 7 mph Sun 16 27°/18° Few Snow Showers 33% W 9 mph

He is 2-0 at home in the postseason and 0-2 on the road. And he didn't play well in either of the losses.