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Everything posted by John Adams
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We’re on day 4. There’s a 30-40 mile long convoy making its way to Kyiv by many accounts. Russia has it seems complete air superiority. Way early to say this is a pathetic operation. Just feel lucky that Putin is showing restraint in his urban attacks so far. Before you show the sites that have been hit so far, know that it could be a lot worse and may get a lot worse. Buying into the “The Ukraine is kicking ass” narrative is likely fools gold. I hope that I’m wrong but I suspect I’m not. Whether the Russians have the stomach for the Guerilla war that will come with occupation remains to be seen.
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The alternative was war with a nuclear power. A ***** choice. If you think the US should be independent from OPEC, Russia, and China, I can agree with the former two but good luck on the later. It doesn't even begin to be realistic. The world is complicated. Germany certainly would have done better to keep their nuclear reactors up but that wouldn't have kept them from sucking on Russia's petroleum tit.
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Russia is just getting started in this war. We’re on day 4.
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Sounds like MOEX won't open tomorrow either. Putin probably has a lot of friends jockeying for position on those first sell orders. China could buy more petroleum but that can't happen overnight. And China would die if they tried to sit on an economic island with Russia. China knows that it's a beneficiary of world order. Russia and China have common adversaries but they are a long ways from friends.
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Tanking Russia's economy (while supporting Ukraine--I see another $6.4B is on the table today) is not some small feat. And yeah, short of starting a direct war with Russia, that might be all we can do. The reality of the world is when a nuclear power takes some lesser country, the options are limited. Wait for Taiwan.
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You mean like the 620 million we already gave them this year? Not counting the 385M just committed? And as to NATO, we want countries to be worthy of NATO. That is a good thing. The Ukraine was not but why would NATO cut it off from rising to a level worthy of joining? And to be clear, that decision is not one that Russia gets to bully the world into. Imagine if Biden had lead the charge to pre-emptively deny Ukraine NATO membership because Putin demanded it. You would have been here saying how weak Biden is. Don't even try to deny it. You have no solutions. Only complaints. Seriously. We all make mistakes but come on! That's a lot of optimism for day 4.