Estro

According to the article on PFT regarding Charles Johnson and DeAngelo Williams, it seems, as of now, teams are able to designate players with 4 or 5 years of service as restricted free agents. Normally this wouldn't be the case, but because last year was uncapped it appears to be possible. Of course it may not hold up after a new CBA is agreed upon, but if the Bills are interested in retaining Whitner for a cheaper $ amount, tendering him as a RFA seems to be a possibility. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/02/24/panthers-to-restrict-deangelo-williams-charles-johnson/ For the record, Whitner has played 5 full seasons with the Bills.

I like Marcel Dareus at the #3 spot. If he's gone, which is possible, Jordan could certainly be a possibility. Productive player who fits Nix's criteria, as other have said, at a big position of need. 3 is probably a reach, but Nix does not give a crap about opinion outside of 1 Bills Drive, he'll go with the guy he and the scouts like best. In an ideal world if Dareus is gone at #3 we could trade back to #7 or so, take a guy like Jordan and pick up an additional 2nd rounder in the process. We all know that the draft is not an ideal world and it's rare to see teams move up into one of the top 3 spots, so I highly doubt it'll happen. Another player (a mid-late 1st round prospect), I'm intrigued with is Justin Houston. Obviously the #3 pick is high, but if there is a way we can manuever around and come away with Houston I'd be happy. I think in 3-4 years he'll be the best LB to come out of this draft (although Quinn could be right there too). Favorite D-Lineman: Marcel Dareus, Phil Taylor, Cameron Jordan Favorite LB's: Robert Quinn, Justin Houston Favorite WR: AJ Green BTW, Nolan Nawrocki (PFW.com) has Cam Jordan going #7 to SF in his initial mock draft, so don't be surprised to see him go that high. Dominant Senior Bowls backed by productive careers, can really propel a prospect (see Tyson Alualu).

That, or I know the Bills original plans were to groom Moats as an ILB. At this point, that's a luxury they can't afford, but down the road I wonder if they'd consider moving him back inside.

A quick background for those unfamiliar with Justin Houston: http://www.georgiadogs.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/houston_justin00.html A youtube video of Houston ballin (he's #42): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR0L2RVId90 What I like most about Justin Houston is the productivity he's had in the SEC the last 3 years. He contributed his redshirt freshman year, and had 2.5 sacks his 1st year. He stepped it up his sophomore year, comuing up with 15 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. Then his junior campaign he topped it off with, 67 tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss, and 10 sacks. It's already been mentioned that he played in the best conference in college football so you don't really have to question his production vs. quality of opponents either. What's really impressive is how Houston's been living in opponents backfields. 38% and 28% of his total tackles occured behind the line of scrimmage his sophomore and junior years, respectively. I prefer to see a player who's made gradual improvements throughout their college career compared to those that seem to come out of no where with huge junior or senior years. Not that one is better than the other, but it seems safer to go with a guy who's been doing it for 3-4 years as opposed to the prospect that had 1 monster year after 2-3 years of quiet productivity. After listening to Buddy Nix's drafting philosphies it seems he prefers an extended productive college career too. I also love Houston's size and fluidity. At 6'3", 258 lbs., Houston is the prototype for a 3-4 OLB (Casey Matthews is 6'3", 255 lbs for a reference point). This means Houston has the size and toughness to maintain his ground vs. the running game, but he also has the quicknss and speed to create pressure. He also happens to look pretty fluid dropping back in space, which is another huge plus for an OLB prospect. In the end I don't think Houston is worthy of a Top 10 pick, but I also can't envision a scenario where he'd last until our 2nd round pick. We're a ways out from draft day, but I was surprised to see Noaln Nawrocki, of PFW, didn't include Houston in the 1st round of his first mock draft. I certainly expect that to change, as I think he'd be the perfect player for the Patriots and there's no way he'd slip past their 28th pick. They would maybe even consider him at #17, IMO, as I believe he's a great prospect and his pass rush is exactly what the Patriots are missing. Whether the Bills have to trade down from #3, up from #34, or a combination of the two, I'd love to see Justin Houston in a Bill uniform. A final note, he was suspended the first 2 games of his sophomore year for reasons Georgia never disclosed. Teams will have to check out his past, but the thought was it wasn't too big of a violation and it had nothing to do with failing a drug test, which would've required a minimum 6 game suspension. I'd appreciate hearing from anyone who has an opinion or knows a thing or two about Houston. I'm just starting to familiarize myself with him, but as of now I'm impressed, and I think he'll be a well known commodity come April 28.

Astro I enjoy your posts. You provide a lot of quality, informative content related to the draft. So please don't take offense to my disagreement with you on this one........... What in the hell do you see in Pat Devlin as a prospect worthy of a high 2nd round pick? He looked atrocious in the East West Shrine game. Little pocket presence, accuracy was all over the place, and most concerning was his weak arm strength. The combination of a weak arm and poor pocket presence and I didn't think he'd fit in with Buffalo's weather or Chan's Gailey's offense. It seemed to me even the evaluators covering the game, came away pretty unimpressed with Devlin. He looked, in my eyes to be a 4th to 6th round QB prospect. Your thoughts? During the East West Shrine game, announcers were careful to point out they'd heard compariosns to Flacco. They said the only true comparison between Flacco and Devlin is that they played college ball at the same school. Flacco's accuracy was well beyond Devlin's and his arm strength was night and day when compared to Devlin. Devlin has poor arm strength, by NFL standards, no question.

But Maybin gets really cool haircuts before gameday.

Moch will run no where near a 4.2 40 time. I watched him carefully at the East West Shrine game. His speed sideline to sideline was not all that impressive. His ability to shed blockers was less impressive. He also weighed in much lighter than expected at the shrine game. He is not a fit in the 3-4 defense to top things off. Just say no to Moch, he's not a player. My guess is Moch runs no better than a high 4.4, low 4.5 40, still very impressive for a LB, but no where close to what he's proclaimed he runs. I could see a 4-3 team that values speed and plays on a fast track (Atlanta Falcons come to mind) take a flier on Moch in round 4-5, and use him as a situational rusher, but personnaly I'm not a fan. Hal Lay Lou Yah.....someone who can see Moch for what he is. A glorified, small LB who filled up the stat sheets in the WAC. Wasn't very consistent though, and at his weight will never be more than a reserve at the NFL level, and that's best case scenario IMO. If the Bills are thruthful about sticking with the 3-4 (which I believe they are after listening to Buddy Nix), I don't even think Moch would be a draftable prospect on their board.

I'd rather have Spiller. I think Starks should have a fine career, especially given the fact that he should be playing on one of the NFL's better offenses for the next few years. I'd still rather take Spiller though, as his explosiveness will create many mismatches in the future. James Starks is more in the mold of a Freddy J, which is great, but we already have a freddy J for the next couple of years.

I think the interior OL were much more impressive than the OT's at the Senior Bowl. I actually thought the most impreeive OT was Derrick Sherrod from Miss St. Solder, to my eye, was totally unimpressive. I don't care how much he looks like an OT, or how much potential he has. He was getting beaten early and often with speed in the game. He also struggled some in 1 on 1 blocking with speed moves. I don't think he can man the LT position in the NFL. I didn't take note of Costanzo too much, but I did see him in at G a lot. The G from Baylor, Danny Watkins, on the other hand, dominated the Senior Bowl. That guy will make a solid G/C in the NFL, the only drawback is he'll be 27 his rookie year. Players only get 4-5 year rookie contracts though, and he has the look of a future Pro Bowl OL, IMO, so I don't think his age will hurt his stock too much.

Clay weighed in at 246 lbs at the 2009 Senior Bowl, so he was a good 9 lbs heavier than Von at this stage, and Clay was considered light at that weight to play OLB in the 3-4. He has since bulked up to 255 lbs and we obviously know how well he's fit in as an OLB. Von Miller needs to put on a minimum of 15 lbs. to hold up in the NFL. At this moment in time he is too small for the 3-4. Can he pack on 15 lbs and keep his speed and athleticism? That's a question he needs to answer at the Combine. He blamed skipping meals and not eating enough at school for the reason he weighted in too light. I don't really buy it. In the end I think Von is a much better fit in a 4-3 despite 90% of the media saying he's a better fit in the 3-4. If he comes in to the Combine weighing 243-247 and still looks the part I think a lot of 3-4 teams will be happy. I actually think weight gets pushed to the side too much by fans when they see a player they like. There were serious concernes about Maybin's body structure and weight 2 years ago, and these concerns were very real. I'm not comparing Maybin to Miller directly, but they both have weight issues. At this point Von is a good fit for the 4-3, but he is very undersized for an OLB in the 3-4. You make a good point about weight fluctuating during the season, but if you start the season weighing 255 and go down to 247 by seasons end that may work. If you start out at 237 and end the season at 230 you're going to be on IR or getting dominated by 300 lb OL, no question. You would think if Von Miller had the ability to carry an additional 10-15 lbs he would already be carrying it. I've seen his film, and I really like his pass rush ability, but you need to be stout against the run to play 3 downs in the NFL. At his current weight teams like the Pats, Jets and Phins will run all day at Von Miller, and I don't want another pass rush specialist with the #3 overall pick.

In order to move up to pick #25 to acquire Tim Tebow, the Broncos gave up their 2nd, 3rd and 4th round pick. So if the Bills were serious about acquiring him they were probably "willing" to give up something similar. If, and this is a big if, the Bills really did covet Tebow, the question becomes would they be willing to give up a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounder this year for Tim Tebow? I believe the Broncocs would love that deal, after all they're transitioning to a 4-3 from a 3-4, so acquiring 3 solid draft picks for a QB who still has a lot of questions would be a great deal for them. I don't happen to believe the Bills front office is stupid enough to give up that type of value for a QB who could flame out. I especially don't think they'd do it because their picks this year are all in the top 3 of each round, so that'd be wayyyy too much to give up for Tim. With that said you have to wonder, if the Bills would be willing to give up say a 2nd rounder and a 4th rounder. If they really were after him hard last year, I think that's a deal they'd do. Whether or not the Broncos would be willing to do it, comes down to what Fox thinks of him, and that I have no clue about. In the end it's highly unlikely Tebow will be moved, but I'm sure the Bills will be in touch with the Broncos IF they truly were "devastated" when the Broncos snagged Tebow before they could (Adam Schedfter's report). The only QB that intrigues me in this years draft, in the first round, is Cam Newton, and I think his value lies in the 16-25 range. Mayock has mentioned that Newton compares to Tebow, but he has the better arm and is more athletic than Tebow. Tebow went #25, so I definitely expect Cam to go before 25. Maybe he's the guy Chan and Buddy will target in a trade down scenario.

Just to update after watching the 1st half of the Senior Bowl: DeMarcus Love's stock has plummetted after this game. He was totally abused by Kerrigan (a 1st round prospect) on the second to last drive. Got beat for a sack where he was dominated by the speed rush, and then on the next play was called for holding when he was beaten badly again. On the ensuing option run, he was pancaked by a pulling guard and laid out flat on his back. No way he can play tackle in the NFL, and may not really be strong enough to play G. Love is a mid round draft pick (based on potential only), but with the way he looks in this game he may end up going much later.

That'd be a garbage offseason IMO. Peterson is overrated and won't be a top 5 pick. Love really showed a lot of problems this week in Senior Bowl practices. Particularly struggled with speed. Needs a lot of development in order to be a starter in the NFL. The QB from Nevada, maybe, but I think he's overrated too. The TE from Arkansas, doesn't fit our offense. Dude is way too small to block in the NFL, Gailey needs a TE who is a dual threat, he's made reference to it many times.

Mayock's started to make the comparisons to Kevin Kolb. Above average in many respects, not great at any one particular thing is more or less what Mayock's been saying. I think Kolb was viewed as a Round 3-4 QB prospect heading into the draft and ended up going pretty high in round #2. We're still a ways out, but after the Senior Bowl, Combine, and Pro Day I think NFL talent evaluators will have a much beeter feel for Andy Dalton. If scouts agree with Mayock's take, than it seems high 2nd round pick wouldn't be out of the question. The biggest question he has to answer is arm strength. The NFL is so QB straved that if he continues to impress in the evaluation process he'll certainly warrant interest.

Chan Gailey seems to like every prospect he's been asked about this week, but when he talked about Kelvin Sheppard I believed him (see Wednesday's Senior Bowl presser, on BuffaloBills.com). Couple that with the fact that he plays at a position of need, ILB, and that he's played at a high level for 4 years in the SEC at LSU, and I think he could be a Buddy Nix guy when it's all said and done. I also think Buddy Nix's comments in his interview with Chris Brown (on BuffaloBills.com) that they'll need to add another ILB or 2 were pretty telling. He obviously sees ILB as much more of an area of need over OLB. A quick bio recapping his career at LSU: http://www.seniorbowl.com/playerinfo.asp?ID=353 At a shade over 6'2" and 250 lbs. he seems to have plenty of size for the 3-4 as well. The guy was a leader and team captain for one of the nations best defenses and was selected to the First Team All SEC. I believe Sheppards stock was in the late 2nd - 3rd round range, but when the dust settles he'll probably be a solid second round pick. At the moment pick #34 seems a bit high, but with some maneuvering on draft day I could definitely see Sheppard in a Bills uniform on Sundays. 2 Videos to get a quick look at Sheppard. First is a quick highlight reel, the second a post game press conference:

Are these your observations, becuase I gotta say I agree with almost all of them? Especially on Akeem Ayers and Von Miller. Ayers plays too upright and is blocked easily by offensive lineman in the second level. I too would not touch Von Miller with a 1st round pick. I don't care how much havoc he wreaked in the Big 12, after the Maybin disaster I'd be too afraid to go down that road again. He's been getting his fair share of hype from Mayock this week, but Mayock carefully states that he's a beast getting after the passer, not sure about him in the other areas. Once 300 lb. OL get there hands on him coming off the edge, which they will more often than not he'll be totally neutralized. There isn't much else to say, these reports are right on the money. I think Bowers is a nice player, but agree he's not dominant in any phase of the game, which a top 3 pick should be. The fact that we're sticking with the 3-4 (listen to Buddy Nix's video w/ Chris Brown) means Bowers doesn't fit into our defense. Quinn was an absolute beast last year, and I don't think you can take that away from him. The fact that he hasn't played live football in over a year though is surely going to hurt his stock. #3, IMO is too risky for Quinn, and I don't think it fits Nix' drafting philosophy. Once again, if you listen to Buddy's video with Brown today he seems much more concerned with acquiring ILB and DL than he does finding OLB, and I think that's what Quinn would be in a 3-4 defense. I still think OLB is an area of major need regardless of what Nix says (lot of posturing during this time of year), and if the Bills were to trade down, Quinn would certainly be an option. My Top 5 Prospects as of now: 1 - A.J. Green - I love everything about him as a receiver, only downside is he has a thin build. A luxury pick for sure, but you never know. Reminds me of a young Larry Fitzgerald. 2 - Nick Fairley - Big time prospect for a 4-3 team looking for a penetrating DT. Don't think he fits Buddy'd philosophy, only did it for 1 year. 3 - Marcel Dareus - Think he'd be a great 3-4 DE who can kick inside on passing downs and collapse the pocket. Strong and surprisingly athletic. More in line with Buddy's philosphy, played at a high level for a few years. 4 - Robery Quinn - Won't go this high because of the suspension, but he's a physical specimen. If teams believe he can play OLB in the 3-4 he's a top 10 pick. 5 - DaQuan Bowers - A 4-3 DE, that's it. So IMO, no way the Bills take him. Above average in a lot of areas, not dominant in any.

That wasn't Derrick Sherrod. It was the OT from Alabama #77, James Carpenter, that was struggling when Coach Joe D dropped his head.

He did make a nice play clubbing that ball loose to force a fumble. That play enabled Oregon to go down and tie the game late in the 4th quarter. Those are the type of game changing plays defenders get paid to make. Can't judge a player based on one play though, and I agree he's probably an overrated prospect due to his name.

I'm pretty intrigued with Matthews as a prospect in this years draft. Irrationally, the thing I like most about him is the fact that his brother is Clay Matthews, and we've all seen the success he's had. The more I look into it though, the more I realize the comparisons to his brother seem pretty unrealistic, at least from a physical standpoint: Clay Matthews (Packers): Arrived at the Senior Bowl 2 years ago at 6'3" and 246 lbs. His hands measured 9 3/8" and his arms were 32". Casey Matthews (Oregon): Arrived at the Senior Bowl at 6'0 6/8" (a touch under 6'1") and 232 lbs. His hands measured 8 3/4" and his arms were 31 3/4". So Casey is a full 2 1/4" shorter than his brother and he's also 12 lbs. lighter. I know Casey is smaller than your prototypical ILB from a weight standpoint, but he may have a frame that can pack on some pounds, that I don't know. I'll definitely be keeping my eye on him this week throughout the Senior Bowl practices and in the game. He's got the bloodlines and I like his speed and awareness on the field. In the end I think Casey will be drafted a full round or 2 higher, than he would have been if he didn't have a brother named Clay Matthews terrorizing NFL QB's. His bloodlines will definitely bump him up, IMO. For those interested in checking out the official weigh in of the 2011 Senior Bowl attended: http://walterfootball.com/seniorbowl2011.php For what it's worth Clay Matthews is now listed as 255 lbs. on the Packers roster. If Casey could pack on 10-15 lbs I think you can at least consider him as a 3-4 ILB, but if not, I don't think he could hold up in a 3-4, just too small right now.

Astro do you guys have Allen Bailey rated as a Top 35 prosopect or is this just for the sake of drafting all South Senior Bowl participants? From the little I've seen of Bailey he looks like a mid round pick not a top end 2nd rounder. You have any insight on the guy? Also I'm noticing a lot of 4-3 DL in this draft. I suppose your conclusion is that the Bills are transitioning back to the 4-3 after the Wanny hire. True?

I knew when training camp started Danny was slated as an OLB and Moats an ILB. Due to injury we obviously know Moats was kicked out to OLB, but I never heard about Batten moving to ILB. I know the scouts definitely liked Danny Batten as an OLB. When and where did you hear that Batten moved to ILB, I must've missed this?

Watched the game pretty closely, and listened a lot to what Mayock had to say about some of his intriguing prospects, here's what I came away with: - Marvin Austin, DT, UNC looked pretty good. Good lateral quickness coming down the line and making plays. Tough to really evaluate talent in this game because some of the offensive lineman were downright terrible. Mayock said he's heard some people will have austin graded as high as the 2nd round, others may drop him to the 5th round due to his year long suspension. Didn't believe he'd get into the 1st round due to the depth of DL in this years draft. - I tried to focus on players at positions of need for the Bills (DL, LB, S, CB, OL, etc.), but Delone Carter, RB out of Syracuse had an impressive game. Thick lower body, not fast, but nice quickness to get to the edge. Would lower his pads aat contaact and pick up a couple of extra tough yards frequently. Looked to be a mid-late round draftable prospect, seemed Mayock agreed. - All of the QB's, including Patrick Devlin (QB, Delaware) were underwhelming. Devlin made one nice seam pass to a TE for a 20 yard gain, but that was about the only positive I saw out of him. Footwork, accuracy and arm strenth were all below average IMO. I've seen him as a 2nd-3rd round pick in a lot of mock drafts, I didn't see enough positives in this game for him to go that high. His arm strength in particular did not look to be NFL quality. - Mayock focused in on Josh Thomas, CB out of University of Buffalo, and actually had some good things to say about him. Said he thought he'd be a better cover 2 corner in the NFL, but liked his quickness and physicality. - Jerron Johnson, S out of Boise State looked decent. Not the best athleticism, but was in the right spot a lot and made some nice tackles in run support. Nice form on his tackles. Perhaps a late round pickup for the Bills to add soem safety depth. - Kenny Rowe, DE, Oregon. Played DE and is listed at 6'3" , 232 lbs., obviously too small to play DE in the NFL, but maybe a good prospect at OLB. Looked to have some good pass rushing skills. Had a nice sack and forced fumble, was actually untouched around the RT (once again tough to assess defenders when no one is blocking them). Don't know if he has the athleticism to make the transition, though. Aaron Maybin would've looked good in this ganme, to put things into perspective. - I know a lot of people have talked about Dontay Moch, OLB, Nevada on this board. Mayock said Moch told coaches he ran a 4.1 in the 40, and then Mayock basically said he'll believe it when he sees it. I can tell you by watching him, he has no where near that type of speed. Looked athletic, but much too small for a 3-4 defense IMO. Also did not look that physical, saw him easily blocked on a few plays, and didn't have the best play recognition on a couple of other plays. - Akeem Dent (ILB, Georgia) and Orie Lemon (ILB, Oklahoma St.) both in the 6'1"/6'2" - 240 lb. range looked to have some nice instincts and tackling ability for inside backers. I think finding an athletic inside backer who can run with TE's is one of the Bills biggest needs this offseason so I tried to pay attention to them pretty close. Mayock seemed to think both were draftable prospects and both looked above average on the field today. - Shiloh Keo, SS, Idaho. Not an overly athletic guy, but could be a good special teamer. A 7th rounder or priority FA who could definitely add value to a special teams. He was in on kickoff returns, kickoff coverage, and defense. Versatile guy. - The QB's and pass protection were so bad that it was hard to evaluate any of the WR's or TE's, so I'll hold comment on them. Charles Gantt, TE, Michigan St., had some nice seal blocks on the outside though, and looked to be a pretty physical TE. - Lastly, a guy Mayock seems to think has some real potential is Brandon Bair, DT, Oregon. He's 6'7" - 272 lbs., and Mayock said several scouts say he has the frame to add another 20-30 lbs. easy. Said he could make a great 5 technique in a 3-4 and could have 3-4 defenses salivating with his potential. 3rd-4th round pick. Sorry that was a little long, but I just wanted to comment on as much as I could remember. With the recent signing of Wannstedt, it's tough to peg what the Bills will be looking for on defense in this years draft. Are they really going to abandon the 3-4 after only one year? I don't think so. I think they'll continue to play a combination of both fronts, but will look to add more 3-4 suited defenders in FA and the draft.

Wanny signed in time to head down to Mobile to coach up the South draft prospects. Should be fun to watch.

Nawrocki's gotten the Bills pick right 5 consecutive years, dating back to Donte Whitner. Nawrocki has been and continues to be amazing in his final mock draft, particularly with the first 10 picks.

If you like Dareus you should be rooting for the Bills to lose tomorrows game. With a loss we have a very good chance of getting him, with a win we have little chance of him being on the board. I see Dareus as a #3-8 pick in the draft.