Estro

and I'm sure they met with Ponder, McElroy, and Dalton extensively when they were coaching them at the Senior Bowl. I don't think you can read into who they visit with to narrow down who they like. The Bills will be meeting with tons of prospects and a handful of QB's. Kaperneck from Nevada has little chance to become a starter in the NFL, IMO. This is a passing league and he has a big arm, but little accuracy and little experience running a pro style offense. He also has a lanky, wirey build, which won't hold up, from a physical standpoint. I compare him to Dennis Dixon, who's been a backup with the steelers and looks to be just that, a lifetime backup.

With him we had a solid run defense and he was still performing at a high level. Add in the fact that he wanted to stay inBbuffalo and siad he was willing to take a home team discount to stay put. It was a big mistake, but I understand your point, he was uo there in age even 6 years ago. At this pont with where the Bills are as a team, Pat Williams would make little sense.

Letting Phat Pat walk without even a legitimate contract offer after the 2005 season was one of the Bills biggest blunder in the last 10 years. With that said we should've retained him 6 years ago. At this point he's pretty much finished, and if he decides he's got another year to make a run, he sure as hell won't choose the Bills. I hated when Pat left, and looking back at it I hate it even more. A huge blunder on Donahoe's part, of course you'd never hear that from his pal Chris Mortensen.

Newton, Peterson 1 & 2 would be good, but because I like Gabbert less than Newton, I'd prefer, 1- Blaine Gabbert, 2- Patrick Peterson This also leaves the door open for a team that loves Newton to pay a fortune to come up and get him. I'd prefer taking Dareus, who is a beast IMO, but to slide back a few spots and pick up an additional high 2 or future 1 would be ideal.

I tried to get Clint Boling in the mock draft somehow, but I couldn't justify selecting an OG with the 34th pick. Boling is one of the top rated OG's in this years draft, and looks to be a late 1st-2nd round prospect. A solid guard would allow Wood to stay at C and solidify the interior of the line. It would be nice, but this team has much more pressing needs on defense and at the OT position. I believe Boling actually played tackle in college so I wouldn't count him out as a possible tackle, although most project him as an interior offensive lineman in the pros.

Round 1 - Marcel Dareus, DE, Alabama http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/1008/cfb.preview.all-sec.team/content.14.html Round 2 - Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/1008/cfb.preview.all-sec.team/content.15.html Round 3 - Ahmad Black, SS, Florida http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/1008/cfb.preview.all-sec.team/content.20.html Round 4 - Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=68510&draftyear=2011&genpos=OT Round 4 - Kelvin Sheppard, ILB, LSU http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/1008/cfb.preview.all-sec.team/content.18.html Tried to be as realistic as possible with what round each prospect is touted to be taken. I'm a big fan of Houston's and don't think he'll escape the 1st round, but he seems to be a fringe 1st round prospect on many sites, so I guess it's possible. The two LSU guys are round 3-4 guys, so we'd possibly have to part with a 5th rounder to move up in round 4 to get Sheppard. We all know Buddy is an SEC guy, not that that means anything, but this is a draft that would really give us a promising young nucleus on defense. Barksdale could provide nice tackle depth and perhaps win the RT job. If Dareus is off the board at #3, my next choice for round 1, following the same theme would be: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/1008/cfb.preview.all-sec.team/content.10.html

I believed there was a great chance Marcel Darues would be there for the Bills taking at #3, but that was a few weeks ago. I think he's the best prospect in the draft and as things sort themselves out over the next 2 months, I think he'll end up going #1 or #2. If Carolina decides against taking a QB, there decision will come down to dareus or Quinn. In the end I think Dareus would win out as he's the more proven prospect of the two, and with the #1 pick you don't want to get too risky. Too bad, too because Dareus would've beefed up the Bills run D immediately, while also providing a nice pass rush from the inside on passing downs.

Solid depth guy. Knows the offense, and will provide depth along the line. I'm sure it was a favorable deal for the team.

Solid move by the front office. Wislon would've been one of the better safeties to hit the open open market this year IMO. I'm guessing 3 years $12 million with $5-$6 mill. guarenteed. A good deal for both sides. Wilson is an adequate safety with decent ball skills and a good special teams player. I'm glad Buddy extended a valuable member to the team.

I have the same "gut" feeling. Someone mentioned his twitter account stated it's been an exciting day and he'd announce the news later today. Let's hope it's a resigning and not a tender. I'd rather retain Wilson, under a market deal, than Whitner, under what he feels is his market. I believe Wilson could be extended for 4 years - $16 million, with about half of that guarenteed. That's a lot less than Donte is looking for which I believe is in excess of $7 mill. a year.

Most people seem to think these designations will not hold up once a new CBA is agreed upon. None the less it is smart for front offices to protect their assets as best they can under the current rules, and as of now these designations are allowed. Just wish George Wilson was on that list.

I guess we found out the answer to my question last week. Whitner can be retained with the RFA designation, whether or not it holds up once a new CBA is agreed upon is questionable. The biggest surprise for me is not to see George Wilson on that list. According to Chris Brown, G. Wilson has the same number of accrued seasons as Whitner so I believe he should be eligible for the RFA designation. This could mean one of two things: The Bills don't plan on retaining George Wilson or they are working on a long term deal. I'm hoping it's the latter, because I think Wilson is a valuable piece to the secondary and at the worst provides quality depth. I hope he is retained.

A nice draft, although I'm not a big fan of Von's. There is a chance Paea is there for us because of his recent knee injury. I assume you see him as a 3-4 DE because I believe he's a bit undersized to play NT. Not a huge fan of Kapernick, and need to look into Stocker more. I'm not sure Gailey values TE's in his offense that much, but who knows. I really like the 2 4th round picks, but I think it's unrealistic to believe either will be there in round 4. I think Casey Matthews can be a starting ILB in the 3-4, he is a bit undersized though. I see him as a late 2nd to 3rd round pick. Moffitt is one of the better guards in this draft, and probably won't escape the 2nd round, especially for a playoff caliber team looking to solidify the inside of their line (Colts, Steelers, Falcons, Patriots, Packers).

You make some good points. If the Bills believe they can get their franchise guy at #3 this year, then go ahead and pull the trigger. I'm not 100% sold on Nix/Gailey, but I do have a lot of faith on their eye for talent. I especially trust Gailey to get the most out of any QB we choose. I just happen to believe that Gailey/Nix won't value Cam or Gabbert to take them with the #3 pick. If that is the case then your next chance to get a franchise QB is in the 2012 draft, so you should set yourself up in the best possible way to strike gold in 2012. If they're not sold on Cam or Gabbert and another team wants to trade up, they'd have a great chance to snag an additional 1st rounder for the 2012 draft. I don't care how old Gailey or Nix are, this team will not not be built overnight, and I'd be all for gaining an additional future 1st rounder to slide down 4-7 spots in this years draft. I didn't know Harbaugh recruited Gabbert, good call, maybe he has the talent, I just don't like what I saw at Missouri. He looks to panic as soon as there is any type of rush or pressure. I know Mayock highlighted a play where Gabbert kept his eyes downfield under pressure and delivered a TD pass. The problem is that was one play, when I watch his throws throughout an entire game I often see him duck and stare at the rush when faced with pressure, very Trent Edwards like. That's what scares me about Gabbert.

I too agree that there will be a 2011 season in some form or fashion. I disagree with your outlook that any team that ends up with the #1 pick will stay pat and select Luck. Luck will undoubtedly go #1, but there is a small chance the team at #1 has what they believe is their franchise guy. A team like the Rams (Bradford), Lions (Stafford), or the teams that select Gabbert and Newton (assuming they spend a high draft pick on them) could conceivably end up with the #1 pick. If that were to happen the last thing they would do is draft another QB at #1. It would require a ransom to get up there, but 2 high 1st round picks in the same draft plus say a 2nd rounder or a future 1st rounder could be convincing to a team that doesn't have a QB need. Chances aren't good, but the possibility remains. Like I said, I'm all in on Luck. I think he'll be a star in the NFL. I think the worst case scenario for Luck is he's a Matt Ryan like QB in the NFL, but to be honest I'd be dissapointed if that's all he became because I believe he could become great, and I don't believe Ryan is or ever will be great. I'd give up a ton to have him. Guys like Luck only come around once or twice a decade.

I agree with your thoughts 100%. A lot of people forget, if there is no 2011 season the Panthers will once again have the #1 pick, which in all likelihood would be Luck. This gives you the opportunity to take your #1 BPA in the draft, and then Luck next year. Suddenly, the Panthers franchise has a lot of hope. I know you can't bank on having no season, but if by late April things still look bleak I don't think Carolina will be selecting any QB at #1. I hope they do, so they're out of the Luck sweepstakes next year, but I can't see it happening. Best case scenario, is Cam goes #1 to the Panthers, and a team trades up to #3 (Skins, Cardinals, 49ers?) for the rights to Gabbert. This removes 2 teams from the Luck sweepstakes and keeps the Bills in the hunt. At this point I'm all in on Luck. I know he has another year in college, but unless he has a total collapse, which I can't see happening, I'm all in on him as a prospect.

There is a good chance the team selecting 1st in the 2012 draft will, no matter what, select Luck first overall, but hear me out: This years QB draft class is very questionable. The two top QB's both have major question marks. Newton and Gabbert are far from safe picks, and personally I'm not a huge fan of either. I like Newton a lot more than Gabbert, but I think both are too risky to warrant the #3 pick. Scenario #1 (No 2012 NFL season): The Bills trade down from the #3 spot acquiring a 2012 1st round pick and there is no 2011 NFL season. Under this scenario, whomever trades up with the Bills will presumably be doing so to select a QB (Gabbert or Newton). In doing so, the Bills would lock themselves into pick #3 and w/e pick the team trading up holds (let's say the 49ers at pick #7) for the 2012 draft. With the #3 and #7 picks overall in next years draft you give yourself a lot of ammunition to move up to #1 to select Luck. If the Panthers select Newton you would also have the added bonus of Carolina not being in the market for a QB next year. The other side of the coin is if Newton goes #1, there's proabably not a good chance of a team moving up to #3. Scenario #2 (2012 season is played): The Bills once again trade down and acquire a 2012 1st round pick, let's say from Washington. Now you're banking on Washington taking its lumps in year 1 with a rookie QB and giving you a relatively high 1st round pick (say a pick in the 4-8 range). The Bills in all likelihood are at least another year or 2 away from truly competing, so they should have another high 1st round pick (around 8-12). Once again we come out of the 2011 season with 2 high 1st round picks, giving us plenty of ammo to leapfrog teams for the rights to Andrew Luck. I know there are a lot of ifs and buts, but for a team that hasn't had a franchise QB for a decade and a half you have to position yourself for a chance at Andrew Luck, who in my eyes is head and shoulders above any QB prospect in this years draft. He has the pocket presence, the accuracy, the mobility, the intellingence, the character, the ball skills and the field vision to lead a franchise for 10+ years. So, if the Bills can maneuver this year to put themselves in a legitimate position to have a chance at Luck they need to do it. The biggest IF, is will there be any teams willing to come up to #3 this year and part with a future 1st rounder? I hope so.

I disagree with your opinion of Ayers. He does seem to have gained some interest as of late, but he's a 2nd round prospect, IMO. I'm actually not a fan of his at all. He's got a lanky, thin build and I don't think he's all that strong against the run. Okay but not good. I see him get pushed back and easily blocked a lot on his game tape. I think we could do better with our 2nd round pick than Ayers. I happen to like Justin Houston, a lot more, even though he's more of a pure OLB than Ayers who some project as an ILB. I'm not sure why Houston hasn't received the same type of hype as Ayers as he looks to be the better player of the two. I don't think Houston will make it past NE at pick #33, but if he does I'd love to see the Bills take him.

and he's not that good at pass blocking or run blocking. I'm not a big fan of Solder at all.

Oh Okay, that is something I didn't know. If that is the case, then you are right, not worth that type of money. I'm all for moving on from Donte if we can't sign hnim to a team friendly contract. Guys who break the bank should be well rounded difference makers, and Whitner is not that. BTW I think team friendly would be around $4.5-$5.0 million a year. Say 4 years, $20 million with $10-12 million guaranteed. I have a feeling Whitner is probably seeking a 5 year deal in excess of $30 million, which I don't think he's worth.

According to the article on PFT regarding Charles Johnson and DeAngelo Williams, it seems, as of now, teams are able to designate players with 4 or 5 years of service as restricted free agents. Normally this wouldn't be the case, but because last year was uncapped it appears to be possible. Of course it may not hold up after a new CBA is agreed upon, but if the Bills are interested in retaining Whitner for a cheaper $ amount, tendering him as a RFA seems to be a possibility. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/02/24/panthers-to-restrict-deangelo-williams-charles-johnson/ For the record, Whitner has played 5 full seasons with the Bills.

I like Marcel Dareus at the #3 spot. If he's gone, which is possible, Jordan could certainly be a possibility. Productive player who fits Nix's criteria, as other have said, at a big position of need. 3 is probably a reach, but Nix does not give a crap about opinion outside of 1 Bills Drive, he'll go with the guy he and the scouts like best. In an ideal world if Dareus is gone at #3 we could trade back to #7 or so, take a guy like Jordan and pick up an additional 2nd rounder in the process. We all know that the draft is not an ideal world and it's rare to see teams move up into one of the top 3 spots, so I highly doubt it'll happen. Another player (a mid-late 1st round prospect), I'm intrigued with is Justin Houston. Obviously the #3 pick is high, but if there is a way we can manuever around and come away with Houston I'd be happy. I think in 3-4 years he'll be the best LB to come out of this draft (although Quinn could be right there too). Favorite D-Lineman: Marcel Dareus, Phil Taylor, Cameron Jordan Favorite LB's: Robert Quinn, Justin Houston Favorite WR: AJ Green BTW, Nolan Nawrocki (PFW.com) has Cam Jordan going #7 to SF in his initial mock draft, so don't be surprised to see him go that high. Dominant Senior Bowls backed by productive careers, can really propel a prospect (see Tyson Alualu).

That, or I know the Bills original plans were to groom Moats as an ILB. At this point, that's a luxury they can't afford, but down the road I wonder if they'd consider moving him back inside.

A quick background for those unfamiliar with Justin Houston: http://www.georgiadogs.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/houston_justin00.html A youtube video of Houston ballin (he's #42): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR0L2RVId90 What I like most about Justin Houston is the productivity he's had in the SEC the last 3 years. He contributed his redshirt freshman year, and had 2.5 sacks his 1st year. He stepped it up his sophomore year, comuing up with 15 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. Then his junior campaign he topped it off with, 67 tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss, and 10 sacks. It's already been mentioned that he played in the best conference in college football so you don't really have to question his production vs. quality of opponents either. What's really impressive is how Houston's been living in opponents backfields. 38% and 28% of his total tackles occured behind the line of scrimmage his sophomore and junior years, respectively. I prefer to see a player who's made gradual improvements throughout their college career compared to those that seem to come out of no where with huge junior or senior years. Not that one is better than the other, but it seems safer to go with a guy who's been doing it for 3-4 years as opposed to the prospect that had 1 monster year after 2-3 years of quiet productivity. After listening to Buddy Nix's drafting philosphies it seems he prefers an extended productive college career too. I also love Houston's size and fluidity. At 6'3", 258 lbs., Houston is the prototype for a 3-4 OLB (Casey Matthews is 6'3", 255 lbs for a reference point). This means Houston has the size and toughness to maintain his ground vs. the running game, but he also has the quicknss and speed to create pressure. He also happens to look pretty fluid dropping back in space, which is another huge plus for an OLB prospect. In the end I don't think Houston is worthy of a Top 10 pick, but I also can't envision a scenario where he'd last until our 2nd round pick. We're a ways out from draft day, but I was surprised to see Noaln Nawrocki, of PFW, didn't include Houston in the 1st round of his first mock draft. I certainly expect that to change, as I think he'd be the perfect player for the Patriots and there's no way he'd slip past their 28th pick. They would maybe even consider him at #17, IMO, as I believe he's a great prospect and his pass rush is exactly what the Patriots are missing. Whether the Bills have to trade down from #3, up from #34, or a combination of the two, I'd love to see Justin Houston in a Bill uniform. A final note, he was suspended the first 2 games of his sophomore year for reasons Georgia never disclosed. Teams will have to check out his past, but the thought was it wasn't too big of a violation and it had nothing to do with failing a drug test, which would've required a minimum 6 game suspension. I'd appreciate hearing from anyone who has an opinion or knows a thing or two about Houston. I'm just starting to familiarize myself with him, but as of now I'm impressed, and I think he'll be a well known commodity come April 28.

Astro I enjoy your posts. You provide a lot of quality, informative content related to the draft. So please don't take offense to my disagreement with you on this one........... What in the hell do you see in Pat Devlin as a prospect worthy of a high 2nd round pick? He looked atrocious in the East West Shrine game. Little pocket presence, accuracy was all over the place, and most concerning was his weak arm strength. The combination of a weak arm and poor pocket presence and I didn't think he'd fit in with Buffalo's weather or Chan's Gailey's offense. It seemed to me even the evaluators covering the game, came away pretty unimpressed with Devlin. He looked, in my eyes to be a 4th to 6th round QB prospect. Your thoughts? During the East West Shrine game, announcers were careful to point out they'd heard compariosns to Flacco. They said the only true comparison between Flacco and Devlin is that they played college ball at the same school. Flacco's accuracy was well beyond Devlin's and his arm strength was night and day when compared to Devlin. Devlin has poor arm strength, by NFL standards, no question.