Estro

Buffalo Bills (+9), over/uner (51.5). Seems about right to me. We need to hope Brady brings his C-game to Orchard Park, because our secondary isn't good enough to contend with the Patriots just yet. Their two TE's will be difficult covers for our LB's/S's.

I also heard Gruden make a semi-plug to be the next head coach of the Dolphins....it was something to the effect of " I want to bring back the days of the rabid fans down here in South Florida". It was a bit more than that, but I didn't hear it precisely enough to quote it accurately. If the Phins finish with another losing recored (which they will), Gruden would make alot of sense for the Phins and vice versa.

The Raiders remind me of the Bills a little. No one knows a whole lot about them and most don't think they're very good, but I think they're alright. Not a great team, but not an easy out either. There speedy receivers worry me some as does their running game. Sure Jason Campbell is no Brady, but he's playing pretty well in Oakland and will be a better test than Cassell was this week. A win over the Raiders would impress me moreso than the win today. Should be an entertaing game. Im hoping the home field advantage gives the Bills the edge. I can't wait to be there!

Baldwin was one of the more surprising 1st round picks. All reports were he had some lazy tendencies in college, I was especially surprised KC was the team to draft him. The season opener for KC, is just the type of game the Bills need to learn how to win if they want to turn the corner. I see KC as a very average team. Okay offense, okay defense, good RB's, below average QB. They don't score a ton of points so it should be a close game. If the Bills can stop the run in that game, and that's a huge if, but if they can they have a great shot to win. Playing on the road doesn't help our chances, but I think the fact that we played them so tight up there last year will give the whole team an added confidence, which is huge. Stuff the run w/ the likes of Williams, Dareus, Merriman, Barnett and Davis in that game and ask Matt Cassell to beat you with his arm. Good luck KC! I've already taken the Bills at +7. (Please no errant throws Fitzy!)

With Evans gone, Stevie Johnson is clearly the Bills #1 WR. My question is who now becomes the #2? I'm thinking David Nelson becomes the man, with Roscoe and Roosevelt working the slot. If Easley can stay healthy and shows something in preseason I believe he setups as an outside #2 WR type too. Anybody have any clue how it'll shake down? I seem to remember seeing, when the Bills played @ Miami late last season when Lee and Roscoe were out for the year, a lot of 3 WR sets w/ Stevie David Nelson and Namaam Roosevelt. I also remember them moving the ball pretty effectively through the air with those 3.

After listening to Chan's Presser tonight after practice it sounds like Lee may be headed elsewhere. If they weren't flirting with the idea of trading Evans, Chan and Buddy and Lee for that matter would be shooting down these so called rumors. That does not seem to be the case however. Listen to Gailey speak about the Lee trade rumors from 1:30-2:40. http://www.buffalobills.com/media-center/videos/Chan-Gailey-Wednesday-Night-Press-Conference/6fc70ea0-ca6d-47fd-8d51-a311acc082b5 Personally, I'm a little torn on this one because I like Lee. I have however noticed his drop in production the last couple of seasons, and the builds are in a rebuilding mode. The Bills haven't exactly been winning with Lee so why not grab a mid round pick for a guy who probably won't be making contributions for the Bills in a couple of years. I think Lee is solid, but by the time the Bills are ready to compete for the division (at least another year away) will he even be around anyway? I actually thought the Bills WR crew was quite competent looking @ Miami late last season w/out Lee. I also don't think Fitz has as much faith in Lee as he does in Stevie. Who knows, like I said I'm torn, but it's definitely starting to appear that the Bills are entertaining the idea of a 2011 season w/out Lee in the fold.

Back in April I was told I only had to put down a $150 deposit to hold me season tickets. The rep said upon a labor agreement I would owe the balance. The ticket office is closed today, but I haven't heard from them since the new agreement. Is anyone else in the same boat? I plan on calling them Monday.....but just thought it was odd that I hadn't heard from them yet.

After watching a few Alabama games this past season I couldn't help, but notice #41 in Bama's D all over the field laying down some hard hits. I took a note of his name, because he jumped out at me in the few games I saw. I see him in the Top 30, good to see. Pair him up with Marcell next year and continue building a nasty defense. Here's a quick look:

The only teams that will have a chance at Luck will be a- the team that finishes with the worst record or b- a team with 2 1st round picks and a lot of other higher picks. Scenario B, of course would only work if the team that finishes last already has a QB that they like and have a lot of money invested in (say the Panthers, Rams, Jaguars, Vikings, Titans, etc.). Since I don't see the Bills finishing 2-14 and since I know they don't have 2 #1's next year, I'd say it'll be nearly impossible for them to land Luck. The Patriots and Browns on the other hand put themselves in a slight position to land him by picking up an additional #1 in 2012. I really think the Browns moved down this year with Andrew Luck in mind.

OL Clint Boling (A value pick. If Wood moves to center, Boling pushes Urbich for the starting G spot. Worst case scenario he provides solid depth, and could even play RT). Chris Hairston (I think the Bills like him. He was in for a visit and projects to RT, a position of need. They've seen plenty of tape on him after scouting Spiller last year). QB, Ricky Stanzi (I've said it all along, he may not be a Chan Gailey prototyppe QB, but it's value at a position of need. At this point we have nothing behind Fitzpatrick). LB Colin McCarthy (Buddy said they'd add 2 ILB's, and McCarthy would make 2. A similar grade as Sheppard, soild tackler) Casey Matthews (a bit undersized, good instincts, the last name certainly creates excitement. Would provide special teams value immediately. SS Ahmad Black (might be too small for Bills consideration, but I know Mike Mayock likes him a lot. Good instincts, and would provide nice depth at the S position Jerron Johnson (similar player to Black, but slightly bigger. Physical SS. I happen to like Boling and Stanzi best. Both have the highest value, IMO, at positions of need. I think it'll be Chris Hairston, just a hunch.

Anyone know what time the pats will be on the clock tonight

I forgot about Rudolph, he'd be nice too, I'm just not sure how much Gailey values TE's in his offense. It could be our TE's are so bad he just doesn't use them, but I think he likes going with 3 and 4 WR sets more than most OC's. I'm also not sold on Rudolph's athleticim and fluidity in the passing game. Seems a little stiff and awkward in the passing game. Definitely a consideration, i just happen to believe the Bills will go in another direction. I'm of the thinking that our corner situation isn't as good as most fans believe it is. McGee is aging and is hurt often, McKelvin is still trying to live up to his expectations, and is an okay corner as of now, at best. Corner doesn't excite me much, and I believe Florence will be an unrestricted FA, and he gets beat a lot too. Brandon Harris may be the best value at a real position of need for the Bills.

Front 7 -DaQuan Bowers (probably won't happen, wold be overkill on DL, but if they cleared his knee could be a value pick, don't see it happening though) -Justin Houston (big, fast, strong, stout against the run, failed drug test may have the Bills weary) -Akeem Ayers (overrated IMO, and very poor against the run, don't think he's a Buddy guy) QB -Andy Dalton (I think Ponder was the Bills guy, and don't see them going QB this early anymore) -Colin Kaepernick (see above) -Ryan Mallett (NGU stated the Bills probably wouldn't consider him unless he really dropped in the draft, this isn't far enough of a drop.) -Ricky Stanzi (Not sure if he fit's Gailey's prototype, but I'm high on him because Nawrocki's high on him, I won't lie) OL -Clint Boling (usually se him listed as a G, but I think he has a chance to be an effective RT. If Wood moves to C, he takes Wood's RG spot) CB -Brandon Harris (undersized, but very fluid and good ball skills. Would contribute a s a nickel corner immediately, and could be grromed as McGee's eventual replacement) Don't forget the Bills will probably field a good amount of offers tonight from teams looking to jump up to grab the guy they have a strong 1st round grade on. I believe a trade down is certainly a possibility, and I'm almost rooting for a tade down to a team with a pick somewhere in the middle of round 2. In the meantime we'd pick up an additional 3rd, with would give us 2 #3's and 2 #4's. My favorites on the list above are: Clint Boling, Brandon Harris, Ricky Stanzi, and Justin Houston in no particular order. Stanzi could probably be had in the 3rd.

Astro, question for you: Nawrocki, of PFW.com has Mason Foster as a 5th round talent. What do you see differently. I believe he'll end up as a 3rd-4th round prospect, but just wanted to get your thoughts on him. 2nd round seems like a reach for him. Where do you guys project Akeem Dent?

Justin Houston is a Buddy Nix guy in my opinion. Senior, produced for a longtime in the SEC, and comes at a position of need. He is also stout vs. the run.

Ricky Stanzi 4th round

If they want to go Alualu style, which means 15-30 picks higher than expected.............Christian Ponder. I think Andre Reed is announcing the #3 pick overall, not the the #34, so I'm not sure why everyone jumped to the conclusion that Ponder would be the 34th pick, maybe the Bills like him 31 spots higher than that.

woops sorry, didn't see all those. I'd delete it but I don't know how to.

Less than a week to go until Round 1 of the 2011 NFL Draft. Any insights or comments from NGU would be greatly appreciated. How are things shaping up at One BIlls Drive as we come into the last week of draft preparation? Thanks.

Modrak and Nix did seem a little giddy about Blaine when asked about him today. The fact that Buddy then went onto say the 1st pick should be a starter or at the very least give you 40 snaps a game this year, made me think otherwise. I think Gabbert could be a smokecreen to get a team picking #4-#7 to give up a bounty to come up and get him. Who the hell knows though, it's all speculation at this point. I like Gabbert's skill set, arm, and athleticism. It just confuses me why he wasn't more productive. His "deer in headlights" look when pressure is in his face, is a giant concern of mine. If Dareus is off the board, I think Gabbert's in the mix. You almost have to believe if the Bills would consider Gabbert at #3, that's an indication they're taking him no matter who's on the board.

FWIW, my Bills mock draft using the value chart as a guide to where players will fall: 1- Marcell Dareus (DE/DT, Alabama) 2- Justin Houston (OLB, Georgia) 3- Ricky Stanzi (QB, Iowa) 4- Chris Hairston (T, Clemson) - they like him after watching all of Spiller's game tape last year (also had him in for a visit, I believe). 4- Jeron Johnson (SS, Boise) - or Ahmad Black (SS, Florida) - I like both of them. 5- Casey Matthews (ILB, Oregon) 6- Mike Mohamed (ILB, California) 7- Ryan Jones (CB, Northwest Missouri State - Division 2) 7- Mario Fanin (RB/FB, Auburn) - bruiser, makes the tema as a special teamer

nm http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/04/19/pfws-exclusive-draft-value-chart-6

How about Josh Thomas, the CB out of University of Buffalo pegged as a high 3rd round pick. That's be the highest pick out of that school, if I'm not mistaken.

Always a useful guide to see where players are projected to fall in the draft: http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/04/06/pfws-exclusive-draft-value-chart-4

After doing some extensive reading of PFW's comprehensive 2011 Draft Preview........here's how Nawrocki rates this years prospects: 1- Von Miller (8.5) 2- Patrick Peterson (8.0) 3- A.J. Green (7.9) 4- Marcell Dareus (7.75) 5- Julio Jones (6.7) 6- DaQuan Bowers (6.6) 7- Prince Amukamara (6.5) 8- Robert Quinn (6.45) 9- Blaine Gabbert (6.4) 10- JJ Watt (6.4) 11- Brandon Harris (6.25) 12- Aldon Smith (6.25) 13- Anthony Castonzo (6.20) 14- Mark Ingram (6.15) 15- Cameron Jordan (6.15) 16- Nick Fairley (6.15) 17- Gabe Carimi (6.15) the points refer to how good of a prospect they are. So basically, there are 4 stud prospects, at least in Nawrocki's eyes, in this draft. So if the Bills stand pat at #3, they have a shot at one of them. i have to say, I wasn't a big fan of Von Miller, and I still have my doubts about his size and run support, but it's tough to ignore Nawrocki's rating on the guy. He has him as the best players in the draft and it's not even close (for the record Nawrocki was not a huge fan of aaron Maybin coming out). I know Mike Mayock, is super high on Von Miller as well. Thast's two pretty good endorsements. What do you guys think of his ratings? Personally I wasn't too surprised to see Brandon Harris as high as he is (I think he's the best cover corner in the draft, his height hurts him). Fairley at 16 is a little lower than you'd expect, but Nawrocki clearly has questions about his character and drive, so it's understandable. Flame away.