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I've seen many posters agree that the Bills must retain Byrd and LeVitre. I, too, would love to retain both, but a lot of people on this board are way off in what they think it will take to retain these 2. Howard Simon, had a nice article over at WGR550.com, breaking down the contacts of all the NFL's high end guards and it proved one thing: Anybody who thinks Andy LeVitre is going to sign a deal for $5-$6 million per year, just a couple of weeks before testing FA for the first time in his life, is out of their mind. To eliminate some of the falsehoods on this board, I'd like to take a look at the contract #'s of high end safeties and high end guards, so we can at least have a basis for the type of money these 2 will get this offseason. Guards 1. Carl Nicks: 5 years - $47.5 million, $31 million guaranteed (signed 2012) $9.5 million per season average 2. Logan Mankins: 6 years - $51 million, $30 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $8.5 million average 3. Jahri Evans: 7 years - $56.7 million, $19.2 million guaranteed (signed 2010) $8.1 million average 4. Davin Joseph: 7 years - $52.5 million, $19 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $7.5 million average 5. Chris Snee: 6 years - $43.5 million, $17 million guaranteed (signed 2008) $7.25 million average 6. Ben Grubbs: 5 years - $36 million, $16 million guaranteed (signed 2012) $7.2 million average 7. Justin Blalock: 6 years - $38.4 million, $16 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $6.4 million average 8. Marshal Yanda: 5 years - $32 million, $16.5 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $6.4 million aveage Now we can put to bed the idea that LeVitre's agent will consider anything less than $6.4 million per. I doubt LeVitre will see Carl Nicks money, but I think his agent will definitely be pushing for $20 million + guaranteed, which would put him #3 on the list as far as guaranteed money is concerned. His agent will also push to get into the $8-$8.5 million per season range. I'd also expect his contract to be 5 years, as the two most recent high priced OG contracts have been for 5 years (Nicks and Grubbs). This way the player has a chance to get one more shot at FA before they're ancient by NFL standards. Final prediction: 5 years - $41.5 million, $22 million guaranteed ......... $8.3 million average And for the record I don't think it'll be with the Bills. Now for the safeties: Safeties 1. Eric Berry: 6 years - $60 million, $34 million guaranteed (signed 2010) $10 million per 2. Troy Polamalu: 4 years - $36.5 million, $14 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $9.125 million per 3. Eric Weddle: 5 years - $40 million, $19 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $8 million per 4. Michael Huff: 4 years - $32 million, $16 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $8 million per 5. Antrel Rolle: 5 years - $37 million, $15 million guaranteed (signed 2010) $7.4 million per 6. Michael Griffin: 5 years - $35 million, $15 million guaranteed (signed 2012) $7 million per Eric Berry's contract is a bit of an outlier, as it came when the NFL was still forking over insane money to highly drafted rookies. I'd expect Byrd's agent to be looking for a deal well north of what Weddle got 2 years ago. Weddle and Byrd are both solid all around safeties that are capable vs. the pass and the run. What seperates Byrd a bit, IMO is his ability to create turnovers and his physicality vs. the run. He has 18 interceptions and 10 forced fumbles in 4 seasons. Weddle has 16 interceptions and 2 forced fumbles in 6 seasons. In other words, Byrd's forcing 7 turnovers a season, Weddle 3 turnovers a season. Big advantage for Byrd, in terms of negotiations, especially when you factor in Weddle's deal is already 2 years old. Final predicition: The Bills will slap the franchise tag on Byrd, because it's the most economic friendly solution for the team to retain Byrd, and I'd expect the Bills to tag him again next year if they can't work out a long term deal prior to next years free agency. That would be $6.8 million this season, and $8.16 million (120% of last years contract) in 2014. 2 years at just under $15 million is a steal for the Bills, when compared to the other deals handed out to safeties leaguewide. If they are able to work out a long term deal I'll say: 5 years - $45 million, $21.8 million guaranteed

Yes we will have a poor record. This team isnt in full on strip it down and build it back up rebuilding mode, but there are a lot of holes to be filled. So many wholes that its unrealistic to expect that theyd be a playoff team in 2013. We need a Qb, a big time receiver, a stud lb if not 2, a #2 CB, a starting quality LG(assuming we dont give Levitre the $8 million a season hes looking for, which we prob. Wont), depth at safety, and possibly a starting TE if Chandlers not ready to go. Like i said thats a lot of holes and its coupled with our players having to learn an entirely new defense and offense. Im thinking this might be a 6 win team again. If we had a shot at a stud QB in the draft, things might be different, but I dont think theres a guy liks that in this years draft. For the record, I'm still high on Zach Dysert. He's lost some luster tye last few weeks so I think theres a pretty good shot hes there for our 2nd round pick possibly even the 3 rd round, which would be a no brainer. The kids got the ability to be a francise Qb, IMO.

I've had the gut feeling for a while now that the 2012 season would be Andy LeVitre's last as a Buffalo Bill. I just don't think the Bills are going to spend big money at the G position, and I don't think LeVitre is going to give any hometown discount (do they really even exist!?). I know LeVitre will be looking to make north of what Ben Grubbs got last year, and I don't think the Bills are going to spend $7+ million on a solid guard. There are 2 other things to take notice of: 1. There is no was we use the franchise tag on him, as it's way too expensive for OL, and it needs to be saved for Byrd if a long term deal can't be worked out with him. 2. I think the Bills focused on gettig the Urbik deal done when they did, because they knew there was a high likelihood that LeVitre would be looking for more than they're willing to offer. I don't want to downplay the significance of losing a really good player, because the Bills certainly don't need to be creating holes on this team, but..................with that said, I can't say that I disagree with the Bills philosophy of not spending beaucoup bucks on an OG. It's not an overly valued position in the NFL for a reason. If LeVitre was as good vs. the run as he is vs. the pass then, maybe, I'd be more adamant that we can't let him go, but truth be told he doesn't really get much push in the run game. The priority this offseason is clearly Byrd. The dropoff from LeVitre to an okay guard like Brandon Moore (FA G of the Jets) isn't nearly as steep as the drop off from Byrd to a so so safety like Eric Smith (another FA S of the Jets.) Bottom line, is there are WAY more servicable G's in the NFL than there are S's. This is why I've been saying Byrd was of much higher importance to retain over LeVitre for the better part of a year. It was an unpopular thought at the time, but I think the Bills front office sees things similarly.

Just got the same text. Interesting. Seems to me Jones was looking for more than the Bills were offering. By releasing this to the media the Bills are basically putting some pressure on Jones' agent. Take this offer or risk making less on the open market. Im of the opinion that Jones' value probably isnt very high around the league. I think hes probably looking for $3.5-$4 mill per and the Bills are probably willing to go more than $2 mill per. The question becomes how much is Jones worth on the open market? My guess is he's a 3 years for $10.5 mill with about $4 to $4.5 guarenteed type of receiver. His durabilty issues certainly hurt his value. Had he stayed healthier he might be the $4 to $4.5 mill per type of guy his agent thinks he is.....but thats not the case.

If we still had the same coaching staff in place I'd expect us to sniff around. I wouldn't be surprised to see San Diego snap him up pretty quick. Weak o-line and Joe D has penty of intel on him.

I agree that LeVitre won't get Nicks money, but I do think his agent is going to ask for it, and I don't think the Bills will come close to offering that much. The Bills will want to pay him $6-$7 million a year, LeVitre will be looking for $8-$9 million per, and I'm doubtful the Bills will invest that type of money at the G position. And I can't say I don't disagree if the Bills decide not to invest huge money at the G position. I really like Andy, he's a great player and I'd like to retain him but if the Bills are for real about analytics and moneyball I don't think they'll go down the road of investing primo money at a postion that, from a league perspective, isn't highly valued. But the main point of my original post was to show that the money squandered on Mark Anderson last year ($8 million), will likely be the gap between what the Bills offer LeVitre and what LeVitre is looking for. And boy do I think the Bills wish they could have a mulligan on Mark Anderson, because it was a costly, costly mistake.

I posed this question last spring, knowing that both of their contracts expired in the same year. Looking at the Bills cap at the time (last spring) I thought there was a good shot we'd have the money to resign both players. Even after signing both Stevie Johnson and Mario Williams to big money deals I was confident there'd be enough wiggle room to work out deals for both Byrd and LeVitre this coming offseason. But, what happened a week or so after signing Mario Williams, put a lot of doubt to whether we'd be able to retain both: signing Mark Anderson, a career journeyman, to a ludicrous big money deal. At the time Bills fans, still coming down from their high of signing Mario, were all rejoicing....Mario Williams on one side and Mark Anderson, coming off a double digit sack season with the Patriots, on the other side, what's not to love? Well now 11 months later, there is a lot not to love. I understand he was injured for most of the season, but even when he was on the field, Mark Anderson was a total liability. The Pats knew he was weak against the run, hence the reason he wasn't on the field all that much outside of pass rushing situations. For w/e reason Nix, Wannestedt and Gailey thought he could be a 3 down player and they were proved wrong. I think it's worth monitoring Mark Anderson's health this offseason because I'm not 100% sold he'll be a Buffalo Bill come September 2013. According to spotrac.com, Mark Anderson received $8 million last season ($6 million signins bonus, $1.9 million base salary and 100k workout bonus) and he's due $4 million in cash nest year in the form of a $1.5 million option bonus, a $2.4 million base salary and 100k workout bonus. So the question becomes do you think the Bills will invest an additional $4 million in Mark Anderson for the 2013 season or cut bait and try to use that money more wisely. If they truly are going to use more of an analytical, moneyball approach, my money is on him being cut. What's done is done though so there is no sense on basking the move now, but my thought is that the squandered $$$ spent on Mark will make it very difficult for us to resigning Andy Levitre. The 2 premier guards that hit FA last offseason (Nicks and Grubbs) signed deals in the $7.2 - $9.5 million range, respectively. So, given inflation and the ever increasing contracts of players, we can fully expect LeVitre to be looking for Carl Nicks money and I don't see the Bills paying a G that type of money. What say you?

not overly impressed with Tyler Wilson. The Wilson I liked was the one that the Seahawks drafted in the 3rd round last year. Some of Russell Wilsons best attributes are where Tyler Wilson struggles the most, IMO: pocket presence and throwing accurate on the run. The best QB's in this league all share one common attribute. They can all make plays in muddied pockets. Obviously you have the Russell Wilsons and Lucks who can use their legs to move around and take off or throw on the run. But you also have the Flaccos, Bradys and Roethlisbergers, who have that keen pocket presence to keep their eyes downfield in a breaking down pocket, reposition themselves, get setuo and fire a strike downfield. Now I realize prospects in the draft thave the ability to learn and improve, but when I look at Tyler Wilson as a prospect at this very moment, I don't see that key attribute in his game at all. On the flip side, this attribute was evidently clear when assessing both Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck coming out of college. Watch Tyler's game tape, and you'll see that when he's forced to move in the pocket he looks 1 - slow and 2 - loses a lot of accuracy and power on his throw. Compare that to Nassib and I'm not wowed by him either, but I see a little bit more of that ability to keep the eyes downfield and deliver a catchable ball. And the best of them all, IMO, is Dysert. He really jumps out as a prospect when you assess his ability to create plays with his arm when the pocket begins to break down.

My #1 qb in this draft. Id take him at #8. I see he got a late invitation to the senior bowl. Ill certainly be tuned in

Before we start wildly guessing what coaches are going to end up in what cities, let's first do a little research. What teams are after new head coaches and who do they have their eyes on?: Buffalo Bills - Ken Whisenhunt, Ray Horton, Lovie Smith, Mike McCoy, Doug Marrone, Chip Kelly, Hue Jackson, Jim Haslett Philadelphia Eagles - Chip Kelly, Mike Nolan, Greg Roman, Mike McCoy, Doug Marrone, Mike Zimmer Cleveland Browns - Chip Kelly, Nick Saban, Ray Horton, Doug Marrone, Ken Whisenhunt San Diego Chargers - Lovie Smith, Andy Reid, Bruce Arians Kansas City Chiefs - Andy Reid Chicago Bears - Mike McCoy, Bruce Arians Arizona Cardinals - Ray Horton, Todd Haley, Andy Reid, Mike McCoy So here are my predictions: Bills - Seems like Ken Whisenhunt is an early favorite. I'm not sure he fits the role of exciting, new, progressive forward thinking, but he's a former Pitt guy (Whaley likes), experienced NFL head coach (Buddy likes) and that Russ has been reported as liking him, so he might be the pick. Eagles - Sounds like they're hot for Chip Kelly, but I think they'll swing and miss, like the Bills. I have the feeling they'll favor a defensive-minded coach and for that reason I think it'll be Mike Nolan, although a long playoff run by the Falcons will hurt his candidacy. BTW, evem though he stunk in San Fran I think Nolan is a great coach. His defenses are always excellent. See what he did with Atlanta this year. Browns - Chip Kelly, 100%. They have purposelly waited to hire a GM so that they can offer Chip anything he wants. Joe Banner and Jimmy Haslam will get the guy they covet. Chargers - They haven't even truly begun the process, as they're looking to hire a GM first before their coaching search officially gets underway. If I had to guess though, I'd say they'll favor an offensive minded guy who can get the most out of whatever Rivers has left in the tank.........and that guy might be Bruce Arians. Chiefs - If you're to believe Adam Schefter's team sources, which 2 days ago said Reid to the Cardinals is a 95% done deal, then I guess we should believe him this time when it's being reported that Andy Reid beoming the Chiefs next coach is imminent. Bears - They're offense is the main complaint in Chicago land so they might just be leaning for an innovative offensive mind. Seems like the young, hot, offensive mind this go around is Mike McCoy. Cardinals - Well I've already placed Reid and McCoy with other teams, so that leaves me Ray Horton or Todd Haley. Haley was a disaster in KC, so I don't understand the interest in him as a HC, but maybe they're bringing him in to see if he'd be interested in playing OC under their new HC, Ray Horton, who all Cardinals fans seem to really like. So there is my, throw a dart at a board, guess for how the chips may fall. What are your thoughts? For full disclosure Whisenhunt or even Lovie Smith don't do much at all to excite me. I'd probably lean Lovie, only because I'm so sick of watching a pathetic defense, and that's his forte. Although the thought of a Lovie Smith led offense is also very scary, so neither scenario is all that encouraging. Chip Kelly would excite, that's for sure, but I think the Cleveland Browns situation will be much, much more favorably viewed by Kelly once he gets the chance to sit down with Jimmy Haslam and Joe Banner.

Hes caught my eye too

Zac Dysert is the best QB in this draft. If the Bills like him they need to take him at #8, because I don't think he'll be around in the 2nd round. Really looking forward to watching him during the pre-draft process.

I have absolutely no faith in Russ Brandon. Everyone forgets Russ was the de facto GM from 2008-2010, between Levy and Nix. How'd that work out. I don't know what the solution is to turn the Bills into winners, but I know it's NOT MORE Russ Brandon. You gotta give the Bills credit for b;lowing a lot of smoke today and making everything sound great, but what they're essentially selling is more Russ Brandon. What I'm saying is Russ Brandon was a failure before and he'll likely be a failure again. More of the same at One Bills Drive, this time just packaged in a prettier wrapping paper with a nice bow on top.

So imagine your a coach being brought in for a visit to discuss the Bills head coaching vacancy. First, you walk into a room with Russ Brandon, Jim Overdorf, Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley (those are the 4 that are flying out to AZ) and you gotta be thinking whats going on here? You have a salesmen who is now the surrogate for Ralph Wilson, a bean counter in Overdorf, a GM, but we're not sure for how much longer GM in Nix, and an assistant GM about to be GM at somepoint down the line, we're just not sure when in Whaley. What's your thought going to be sitting down with these four? First thing I'm going to notice is the front office looks like an absolute mess with too many people involved in the decison making process. Look there is nothing wrong with having checks and balances within an organization, but theres just too much going on at One Bills Drive for my liking. My biggest dislike starts at the (now) very top with Russ Brandon. This guy has just always struck me the wrong way. I have absolutely no confidence in Russ Brandon, a glorified inventory salesmen, leading this football team in the right direction. In fact he's already failed once, given the fact he was (kinda, sorta) the GM a few years back. That's the problem with the Bills, there's so many people who have their hands involved in this cluster eff, that when things hit the fan no one even knows where to lay the blame. Is it Donahoe, Modrak, Mularkey, Littman, Overdorf, Juaron, Levy, Nix, Brandon, Whaley, Gailey. Whos calling the shots? Nobody freaking knows. I think giving Russ Brandon MORE POWER symbolizes everything that is wrong with Buffalo. We haven't made the playoffs in 13 years, haven't had a winning season in 8 years, so let's let a salesmen/businessman who has been around for the last 16 years, and also had a brief and failed stint as GM lead the way to find our next head coach. No thanks, sounds like an absolute disaster to me. Not that it means anything either, but does anybody else think Russ is a little full of himself. He was wearing what looked like a Super Bowl ring on his hand during todays presser, what was that his high school senior ring? Also he has Thurman Thomas and Ruben Brown with him in the back of the room at his presser, almost like he's a wannabe with his possee. I really hope 3 years from now I look back at this post and totally eat crow. I hope the Bills go on a tremendous run these next 10 years and I can look back on today and think good things, but my brain is telling me today is just more of the same. I don't think the solution to right this ship is MORE Russ Brandon. Anybody else feel the same way?

Right on. Dysert is highly regarded in the scouting community. Come April, once the media become a bunch of parrots, he will be a household name. Much like Russell Wilson, this guy passes the eyhe ball test when you watch him play. His creativity in the pocket, and ability to maneuver in the pocket and square his shoulders and deliver the ball downfield is tremendous. He's my favorite QB prospect in the draft.

go get the best QB in the draft at #8: Zac Dysert Let's take another one with our 2nd round pick, just for good measure. Find a good QB, have a good team, that's really what this league boils down too. Dysert has game.

Zac Dysert, a guy with a strong arm and one that can throw on the move.

Zac Dysert is the QB that has the perfect skill set for Buffalo. 1 - strong arm 2 - touch/accuracy 3 - great pocket presence 4 - can throw the ball with accuracy on the move Dysert reminds me a lot of Roethlisberger, and not just because he plays for the same school, Miami (Ohio). He has the same tough, hang in the pocket to the last second and deliver the ball downfield mentality. One thing thats become painstakingly obvious watching the Bills this year, is Fitz has absolutely no abililty to move around in the pocket while still keeping his eyes downfield to throw the ball. As soon as Fitz has to relocate in the pocket he immediately takes off running and will never keep his eyes upfield to make a play downfield with his arm. This attribute is sorely missing in our offense. Watch how many times the good QB's (Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Brady, Luck, Wilson) are flushed out of the pocket, but are able to recompose and deliver a dart downfield to a wide open receiver. It's something you just don't see in Buffalo, and it's an area that Zac Dysert excels in. I'm all for Dysert in the 2nd round.....or more likely having to move up into the back end of round 1 to ensure we get him.

I might be reading too much into this, but........ Resigning players at this stage in the game, also indicates to me, that Buddy Nix and Whaley are not going to get the axe. If the hammer was going to come down on our GM do you think he'd still be negotiating deals with players that the next GM might not even want? Probabaly not. So, just a hunch but based on Nix still hammering out deals at this point, I wouldn't count on him going anywhere. Nice resigning of Urbik BTW.

Look I know Rex rubs a lot of people the wrong way, and I get it. He might be a bit over the top, cocky, in your face, but there is no denying his win/loss % as a head coach, which is 34-28. Throw out this year (losing Revis and Holmes, the total regression of Sanchez) and he was 28-20. More importantly he won 4 playoff games. This is a winng brand folks, one that should and would be welcomes with open arms in Buffalo. The problem with the Jets, IMHO, has been their front office, they loaded up on aging veterans after they made their push a few years back....it didn't pan out and frankly they have very little talent on the roster as of now. With as weak as they were talent wise this year, they were still playing a meaningful game tonight and they kicked the snot out of the Bills in week 1 (and will probably do the same in week 17, if I had to guess). I also think the physical brand of football Rex's team bring to the table would be a perfect match in Buffalo. With all that said there are two gigantic drawbacks to Rex: 1- He runs the 3-4 D, so the Bills would once again have to switch D's which would be viewed, short term, as another step back. Something Nix probably wouldn't want to do (I'm assuming Nix is still running the show come January). 2- His offenses struggle. Part of me wonders what a Rex Ryan as head coach, and Chan Gailey as OC Buffalo Bills would look like. I think it'd be an interesting mix, certainly better than the one we have now, but highly unlikely given most head coaches don't take demotions, they're usuually just let go. Also after this last month of watching the Bills, I'm not very high on keeping Chan in any capacity, although I think I could warm up to the idea of him as an OC only, eventually (not going to happen, just wondering aloud) What do you think? What would your thoughts be if Rex got the chop in NY and rumors started that the Bills were interested. Given the stretch of Greg Williams, Mike Mularkey, Dick Juaron and Chan Gailey.....I think it'd be a good move.

Asked in his postgame presser Fitz said they had an outside run call to Spiller and it was a bad play based on the defense he was seeing. Not wanting to burn a timeout he decided to sneak it. Fair enough Gailey asked about the same exact situation in his post game presser.....said, they had a pass called that wasn't a good fit based on the coverage they saw. Not that it's a hige deal, but the QB says it was a run play. The coach on the other hand says it was a pass play. Smells to me like they're both bs'ing, and the truth of the matte ris both QB and coach ran a sneak because they both didn't realize it was first and 10. I also found it odd that when questioned about this one specific play in the game both player and coach delved into a rather wordy prepared answer, as if they both knew they gaffed it in the game, so they got their stories straight before heading to the podiums. Like I said with they way they played today, this play was totally menaingless, but I'm not buying either Gailey or Fitzs answer, because they're both telling different stories.

Agree 100%. You said everything I wanted to say to a tee. The only thing I'll add is this: 1) This team has taken on the personna of its head coach 100%. An absolute play it safe, play not to lose, scared attitude. 2) A coach that can't get one of the more dynamic back more than an average of 11 touches a game. It just makes me absolutely sick. Freddys fumble cost us big, but thats what Chan likes, apparentyl, he prefers Freddy out there over Spiller and I can't figure it out. Just listened to his presser and its scary. To make matters worse....the Steelers and Bengals were both upset in their own buildings, and had we found a way to win we woulda been 1 game out with 3 to go. An important December game woulda been nice, but with /chan at the helm its not meant to be. The dude is just an absolute loser.

The chances of not making the playoffs are 5 out of 8 or .625. So you simply multiply .625 together 13 times which gives you approximately .0022. In order to turn that into a percentage you must multiply the final decimal by 100 leaving you with .22% And making the playoffs is totally random on a year to year basis because each team is operating under the same salary cap. Whether or not every team is run as effectively is obvious given the Bills run the last 13 years, but every team is competing with the same resources. And then theres MLB where its even harder to make the playoffs. I like the nfl at 12 out of 32 teams make it. No way should more teams make the playoffs then not, like the NHL does it. Just doesnt seem right.

.22% That's right there's a decimal point in there. Let me bold it in case you missed it: .22% In other words, a 1 in 451 chance of that happening......meaning if a team played 451 seasons they should experience a playoff drought like we have precisely once. This stat tells you everything you need to know about what the Bills fans have had to endure these last 13 years. It's not just bad luck, there is something seriously wrong with this franchise, and it's an absolute embarrassment. I'm sure Ralph's not, but if this was an entity I owned, I'd be utterly embarrassed. A couple of more seasons with no playoffs and we'll be getting into powerball odds territory. Total and absolute ineptitude.