Estro

Okay thanks for the clarification, that's what I was hoping. So if the Bills really want Clay they need to make his base this year $14M. His contract breakdown would look something like this: 4 years - $28M, $14M guaranteed '15: $14M base salary ($14M cap hit) '16: $1M base salary & $3M roster bonus, amortized over 3 yrs. ($2M cap hit) '17: $5M base salaey ($6M cap hit) '18: $5M base salary ($6M cap hit) With this structure the Dolphins would need to have enough cap space to squeeze Clay in at his full $14M cap hit, plus $5M for their rookie draft pool, plus any emergency funds you keep heading into a season which is usually at least a few $M. Essentially the Dolphins would need to have in excess of $20M in cap space to match a deal like this. It leaves the Bills vulnerable if Clay were to get hurt or retire from football after the '15 season, but that's not very likely. The Bills are being super proactive: cutting Chandler and restructuring Kyle Williams deal, so it's clear that the '15 cap hit on Clay's offer sheet is going to be heavy. If they need extra breathing room they can always convert some of Mario's base salary. The downside to all of these cuts and restructures is obviously the cap hits in the future only get heavier, which eventually becomes a problem down the line. I will add the 1 wildcard no one has discussed, which is Dannell Ellerbe, LB, Dolphins. It's only a matter of time before he is cut and when he is the Phins pick up an additional $5.65M. If they are determined to keep Clay, they could cut Ellerbe and restructure a couple of contracts and make it work. They would be in absolute dire straits in the future if they decided to do this....but it is the Dolphins, and Stephen Ross, so you never know.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the Dolphins really want to retain Clay can't they agree to match the Bills contract no matter what the structure.....and then immediately restructure high base salaries into bonuses and amortize those bonuses over the life of the deal to soften that cap hits in the early years. Or are the Dolphins not allowed to restructure the deal immediately after matching the Bills offer? I'm not sure what the rules are with that.

I always thought that the absolute most Spiller could get on the open market was $5M per season, and I thought that would be overpaying for his services. I think $4-$4.5M per year is fair for a team that has a defined plan for Spiller. And by defined, I mean a team who understands this is not a guy that can just take hand offs up the middle. I actually feel like he'd be a poor fit on the Cowboys. The Patriots make more sense to replace Shane Vereen, who was more of a scat back. I also believe that the Pats won't pay one penny over $3.5M per season for a scat back. If reports are true that Spiller turned down over $4.5M per year from the Bills he may soon realize that was a mistake financially.

I wonder if Tyrod Taylor is going to be a project for Donnie Henderson. He has ideal size and athleticism to play S/CB. Probably not but just throwing it out there.

what he's looking for is his ceiling. So asking for $8.5M seems fair. I think $7.3M, which is what OG Orlando Franklin just got, is probably more in the wheel house of what he'll get. Murphy mentioned today on his radio show that the Packers are trying to retain him, so it'll be tough to pry him away. He seems to have a little bit of a pulse as to what's going on and said he does think the Bills will look into Bulaga, so we will see.

Many deals include funny money on the backend, so I like to take a look at the fine details of contracts signed. Here are the cash breakdowns of Jerry's newly inked 5 year deal (all information from spotrac.com, which I will link at the bottom). Keep in mind this is how the cash will be disbursed over his 5 year contract: 2015: $11.775M (fully guaranteed) 2016: $10.675M ($6M guaranteed) 2017: $7.55M 2018: $7.5M 2019: $7.5M Total disbursements = $45M over 5 years One thing that sticks out to me is the fact that Hughes will receive 50% of his total deal in cash within the first 2 years of the 5 year deal. That's great for Jerry and his agent. From their perspective, It's essentially a 2 year - $22.45M deal, followed by three 1 year team options worth $7.5M/year. This is where the Bills win the deal, IMO, but only if Hughes is still playing at a quality level. The last 3 years at $7.5M per season will look like a relative bargain in 2017-2019 when Hughes will be 29-31 years old (still not over the hill). Lastly, the more I look at this contract the more I like it for the Bills. Spotrac.com did a feature piece leading up to FA in which they predicted the value of the key FA's to be. They had Jerry's predicted contract value @ 6 years - $60.945M w/ $20.7M. Clearly, they think the Bills signed Hughes for much less than his worth on the open market. And for those who might think they just suck at guessing, many of the other FA signings around the league have come in north of their predictions. You can see for yourself here: http://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/projecting-contracts-for-notable-2015-free-agents-504/ Jerry's contract breakdown here: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/jerry-hughes/

Aaron Williams ‏@ajwilliams23 20m20 minutes ago My lil brother said it best, "life is the best teacher" #DeepThinking I think this may very well be in reference to Freddy not being with the Bills any longer. Those two are tight.

We get nothing. Had we not signed 1 of our FA's signees last year, we would've likely received a 3rd/4th round selection. It's no coincidence that the Baltimore Ravens and Patriots have multiple compensatory picks awarded almost every year. Smart business accumulating extra mid round draft choices if you can work the system intelligently, you just have to make sure you always have a net loss via FA. Then you replace those losses in FA with your "compensatory" picks that work for cheap. I get the impression the Bills won't be operating under this model though, by the looks of things lately. Their loss.

It's gonna be tough to beat out the Jaguars, IMO. They're likely to miss out on al of their prized targets. Cobb, Suh, Murray. That means they can blow other teams offers out of the water, and really just start overpaying guys. Throw in no state income tax in FL and I think Jacksonville will offer the best package to Hughes.

My opinion: Bills will add 1 year to the deal with some funny money on the back end so the agent looks good, and they'll turn some of this upcoming years base salary into a signing bonus. Agent looks good with the "new 4 year deal", Shady is happy because he gets some money guaranteed and upfront in the form of the signing bonus, and the Bills are happy because they can prorate the signing bonus over the duration of the deal and pickup some immediate cap relief. His deal as is stands today: 2015: $10.25M, cap hit the same 2016: $7.15M, cap hit the same 2017: $7.85M, cap hit the same 3 years - $25.25M Prediction for his extension/restructure: Signing Bonus of $8M (prorated over 4 years, $2M/year) 2015: $2.5M, cap hit of $4.5M 2016: $7.5M, cap hit of $9.5M 2017: $8M, cap hit of $10M 2018: $9M, cap hit of $11M 4 years - $35M, $10.5M Guaranteed. Essentially a 2 year - $18M or 3 year - $26M deal depending on if the Bills cut him after 2 or 3 seasons.

LOL, agreed. Just give the damn tour will you. Show some assertiveness!

The kid sounds like a dumbass when he speaks.

No he's a RT. Most fans don't realize though that RT is more of a need than RG. Urbik isn't good, but he graded out much better than Seantrel Henderson did at RT. We really need an upgrade at that position.

1. RT - Joseph Barksdale 2. DE/OLB - Jerry Hughes (if he counts) 3. TE - Virgil Green

We need a new RT. Not talked about as much, but I'd argue it's just as big of a need as OG. Seantrel Henderson was very bad last year. If given the choice of only being able to sign an OG or a RT in FA....I'd definitely pick RT, and try to find an OG in the draft.

I'm glad you brought up Jeremy Parnell, he's a guy who I overlooked and he should definitely be on the list. He graded out well. He was a +8.7 (played 388 snaps). He was +3.4 pass blocking & +5.3 run blocking, so above average in both. A very intriguing under the radar guy, that I actually like quite a bit. He actually only played 1 year of college football (he played college basketball for Ole Miss), and that was on the defensive side of the ball. He's only played o-line for a few years so he's a very late bloomer, and a guy I think that could still be viewed as being on the upswing. Justin Blalock was graded at +3.8 (991 snaps played). He was a +7.5 the year previous. Not too shabby at all. He is a LG though, and we did just sign Incognito so I'm not sure if the Bills would be looking to sign 2 FA LG's with starter potential. Jahri Evans, who is a RG, was a -6.5 on his 1158 snaps in '14. He graded out very poorly as a pass blocker and good as a run blocker. In '13 he graded a +11.1 on 999 snaps, and unlike his '14 season, had better marks as a pass blocker than a run blocker. So teams would have to assess if last year was an outlier, as far as poorer play, or if he's beginning to decline. Thanks for bringing up Parnell, though, he is really intriguing and could maybe be had for a reasonable deal. By the way was Jahri Evans ever cut?

Glenn's rookie year was his worst according to profootballfocus.com. But you are right about him falling off quite a bit this past season compared to the 2013 season In '13 he had a +19.6 grade, much better than his +6.5 in '14. I think he'll bounce back in a big way under Rex, Roman and Kromer. BTW, for those curious here are the grades on Incognito: 2012: +9.4 with 1048 snaps played (+6.3 pass blocking & +1.7 run blocking). Played LG 2013: +7.2 with 472 snaps played (+3.6 pass blocking & +2.3 run blocking). Played LG 2014: DNP So, pretty good.

Yea, I didn't realize how bad Seantrel Henderson really was until I put this post together. He was almost the worst tackle in all of football. Signing a RT is a much bigger need than what has been discussed, as you mention. Rex also brought up the fact that they'll be looking to add T's. Doug Free, would be a nice get for this team if we can't land Bulaga or Newton.

Yea I referred to Iupati scaring me a bit in the original post. He's a dominant run blocker, 2nd best of any G in the NFL last season, but his pass blocking was bad. Not just below average, but bad. The Bills already have a bunch of poor pass blockers on their roster. Adding another one, and paying him a lot of money to do so would be a definite concern. I'd actually prefer Boling, and he will probably sign for less.

By this time of year most of us have familiarized ourselves with the "big name" FA's that are about to hit the market. They'll be some last minute signings and some franchise tags applied, but there is a large crop of quality players about to hit the open market. With the help of profootballfocus.com's grading system I decided to highlight, not only the marquee FA's, but also some of the players who don't have the biggest names, but who graded out well this past season. I'm only listing players that are UFA's. Offensive Guard: (Player, Team, Age, Position, Snaps Played, Overall Grade) 1. Orlando Franklin, Broncos, 27, LG, 1123, +12.0 2. Mike Iupati, 49ers, 27, LG, 970, +11.2 3. Clint Boling, Bengals, 25, LG, 950, +5.0 4. Mike Pollack, Bengals, 30, RG/LG, 450, +5.0 5. Rob Sims, Lions, 31, LG, 1111, -1.0 6. James Carpenter, Seahawks, 25, LG, 846, -6.6 To put their numbers into perspective Eric Pears graded out with a -25.0 (1086 snaps played), Kraig Urbik -9.1 (636 snaps) and Cyril Richardson -13.7 (321 snaps). Not a whole lot of explanation needed here. Our guard play was atrocious and these numbers show it. Pears was almost dead last, Richardson would've been right there w/ Pears if he played more, and Urbik was also pretty bad. Urbik wasn't as terrible as the other two, but certainly well below average. Even with the signing of Incognito, the Bills need another big upgrade at G. Franklin and Iupati will both command big $$$ on the open market. Franklin is a well balanced G who is above average in both run and pass blocking. Iupati, is a dominant run blocker (2nd best in the league last year), but actually graded out rather poorly pass blocking, which should be a concern, IMO. Clint Boling, is a little under the radar, and graded out average pass blocking and above average run blocking. Carpenter is a bit like Urbik, an average pass blocker and a below average run blocker. Both Rob Sims and Mike Pollack, won't command nearly as much as the others due to age, but would still represent huge upgrades to what we currently have on the roster. Keep in mind, average G play is a huge upgrade compared to what the Bills trotted out onto the field for the 2014 season. Offensive Tackle: (Player, Team, Age, Position, Snaps Played, Overall Grade) 1. Bryan Bulaga, Packers, 25, RT, 947, +11.9 2. Derek Newton, Texans, 27, RT, 1130, +8.9 3. Doug Free, Cowboys, 31, RT, 716, +8.5 4. Ryan Harris, Chiefs, 29, RT, 980, -1.6 Cordy Glenn graded out with a +6.5 (1069 snaps). Solid enough. Seantrel Henderson graded out with a -29.9 (1086 snaps), downright putrid. He graded out very bad pass blocking and graded out as one of the worst run blocking T's in the league. Given how much Rex and Roman want to emphasize the run this year, you'd have to think they'll look to replace Henderson in the starting lineup. Any of the above players would be huge, huge, huge upgrades over Henderson. Bulaga and Newton are the guys that will command the most $$$. They have the right combination of being both young and good. Bulaga is one of the better pass blocking RT's in the NFL, and is a competent/average run blocker. Newton, on the other hand, graded out as the best run blocking RT in the league, but is a below average pass blocker, though not nearly as bad as Henderson. Doug Free is more evenly balanced as a slightly above average pass blocker and a good run blocker. Finally, Ryan Harris graded out middle of the pack as both a run and pass blocker. Centers: (Player, Team, Age, Position, Snaps Played, Overall Grade) 1. Rodney Hudson, Chiefs, 25, 1031, +13.0 2. Stefen Wisiniewski, Raiders, 25, 1041, -2.5 Eric Wood graded out with a -5.5 (1083 snaps). Not terrible, but not good either. He was slightly below average as both a run and pass blocker, and hasn't had a positive run blocking score since his rookie year. I'm hopeful Eric's play can bump up under Rex and Roman because he hasn't been playing up to his contract. I know he is a fan favorite, but this will be a big year for Wood. If he can't become a plus run blocker in '15 his tenure with the Bills will be on shaky grounds, IMO. Hudson is a nice young C, who graded out well as a run and pass blocker, and represents a big upgrade over anything we currently have on our roster. Wisniewski is a decent run blocker, but was a below average pass blocker. In summary, I tend to like the offensive lineman who are at least competent as both run and pass blockers. It scares me to see a guy who struggles in one category even if he dominates in the other. Teams prey on their opponents weaknesses, so if you have one it will get exposed. That makes me a little weary of Mike Iupati and Derek Newton who are both big pluses in the run game, but are weak as pass blockers, particularly Iupati. One last note, boy was our offensive line just atrocious under Marrone. It seems like every single lineman regressed, let's hope that changes.

I agree. I love Marcell Dareus. I'm also aware that we lost that game in Oakland because our qb play stinks. drew brees over a below average qb gains this team 4 wins. Losing dareus might lose hs 1 game. 1 great qb means so so much more than 1 great DT. And I know most any Bills fan fully understands that.

Talking bout Drew Brees trade seems silly at first glance....but given a lot of thought it does seem like a scenario that is at least plausible. Consider some of the facts: The Saints are come off of an atrocious season w/ a fully healthy Brees. They have serious cap problems. Brees is 36. If the Bills came knocking with say this year's 2nd round pick, next year's 1st and 4th round picks and Marcell Dareus I think it's a consideration the Saints would have to consider. it'd be a kings ransom.....but the Bills would come away with a franchise qb for a team that's reasy to win now. The Saints lose a helluva qb but they get one of the best DT's in the game plus a bevy of draft picks for the future. When Brees decides to hang em up in 2-3 years the Saints can say see now we have all these young promising players here in NO that we wouldn't have if we hung onto an aging Qb.

Bills save $2.475M in cash if they cut Chris Williams. They only save 725k on the cap due to his prorated signing bonus. I'd say there's still a chance he gets the axe as $2.475M saved in cash is far above the vet. min. and I think his services can probably be replaced by a vet. minimum contract. He graded very poorly with the Rams, and was gradidn out extremely poor with the Bills before he got hurt. He has a 2015 roster bonus of 500k, so if the Bills are going to make a move they will certainly do so before that 500k payment is due. Does anyone happen to know when roster bonuses are due? I believe most agents negotiate those bonuses to be paid prior to FA opening, that way if the team chops him the player is at least a FA before the FA spending is all dried up.

I don't like Lee smith all that much but he actually grades out a lot higher than Fasano. Fasano is an aging declining player. He graded out as one of the poorest TE's this past season, 61st out of 67 TE's graded. He was particularly putrid run blocking. Lee smith graded out much better ...... long story short: No thanks to Fasano

Old and declining. Graded out very poorly according to profootballfocus.com this past season. Pass