Estro

Great comparison to Moulds, that's the same comparison I've used to. Davis is an inch taller and probably 10 lbs. lighter than Moulds was coming out of Miss. St., but their games are similar. At the height of his career, Moulds was a YAC beast and had a knack for coming down with those tough 50/50 balls in the redzone and endzone. He was also sneaky fast down the sideline on those deep bombs. I see the same exact thing in Corey Davis. Davis has the same move Moulds did, where they catch the 10 yard comeback, juke their inside shoulder upfield to fake like they are turning inside only to explode toward the outside for another 15-20 yards. He also, much like Moulds, has the ability to catch the slant or the post and use the combination of his physicality, speed and agility to turn upfield and take it to the house. Mike Williams actually concerns me a lot as a prospect. He wins by being big, and having good hands. Similar to say, Alshon Jeffery. He's not quick, he's not fast, he's not agile and he's not a YAC guy. Those type of WR's have a much higher bust rate, IMO. Check out Corey Davis's move I described above at the 0:55 - 1:11 mark & 1:28 - 1:53 (fake shoulder dip inside, spin outside on the comeback route). Also 3:47-4:00 (catching the post and turning it up for YAC) Check out Eric Moulds move at the 2:57-3:10 mark (catching the slant and exploding up field)

Lol, I like the sound of that. And Corey Davis would, indeed, smoke Gilmore. I love Corey Davis, was posting about him months ago on this board. Hope he's a Bill in a couple of months.

Cap hit isn't getting kicked down the road. Tyrod took a massive pay cut. He was due $27.5M in year 1 and $40.5M over 2 yrs under the old deal He is now due $14.5M in year 1 and $30M over 2 years. He basically took a $13M paycut this year. This was a massive win for the Bills, and seems to indicate there wasn't much of a market for Tyrod outside of Buffalo.......you don't take that type of paycut unless there's no where else to turn. I always thought reports of other teams ready to make a run at Tyrod were being overblown. I never hated Tyrod, but I did hate his old deal. It had way too much cash for a middling QB. His new deal is much more in line with his value, so I'm okay with it. Still don't like the player, but I do like the value of the contract now.

Piecing together Vic Carucci's info and Jeremy White's info on the specifics of the Tyrod restructure, I'm pretty sure I know what it looks like: What we know: $7M signing bonus $10M cap hit in '17 $15.5M guaranteed 5 year deal year to year deal after '18 w/ no guarantees can earn up to $30M in '17 & '18 $8M in dead money if cut after '17 What I surmise: '17 - $7M signing bonus amortized over 5 yrs, $8.5M base salary. Cap hit of $9.9M ($8.5 base + $1.4M amortized SB) '18 - $14-$14.5M base. Cap hit of $15.9M ($14.5M base + $1.4M amortized SB) '19 - funny money, nothing guaranteed '20 - funny money, no guarantees '21 - funny money, no guarantees So, if I'm right, and I think I am or very close, the Bills did a great job. Dropped the '17 cap hit by $6M Kept the '18 cap hit the same Saved $12M in cash in year 1 Nothing is guaranteed after this year Huge win for the Bills, and actually makes Tyrod's contract a very palatable and perhaps trade-able asset into the future.

Signs point to that. We already have John Miller, Eric Wood & Incognito. Ryan Groy is the backup swing interior OL. So why sign Vlad Ducasse, you wouldn't even be able to dress him on Sunday's if the 4 guys I mentioned before him are on the roster. So barring an unforseen release of one of those players, it looks like Ducasse is destined for RT or backup swing tackle. Don't think he's a good player, s I'm interested to see where the #'s come in on this contract. 3 years indicates they like him and has me thinking he might be our starting RT.

Good news: Mike Tolbert doesn't count as an addition in the compensatory pick formula, as he was cut by the Panthers last month. For those that don't know players that are cut do not count as additions in the comp. pick formula. So far both Vlad Ducasse & the FB we signed from ATL do count as additions: The Bills better be very careful and not sign more FA than we lose because doing so would cost us a 3rd round comp pick in next years draft (for losing Gilmore). No way I want to risk losing a top 100 draft pick next year because I signed a bum like Vlad Ducasse this year.

How can I assess it if I don't know what we're paying him? I want to know if that roster bonus disappeared. Want to know his year 1 and year 2 cash payouts, and what the dead money looks like if we get rid of him after 2 years before I can properly judge bringing him back.

We need to see what happened to that $15.5M roster bonus. If he still get's that or a large portion of it, this sucks. If not, I'm okay with it.

I appreciate the effort, but thank god he's not our GM that's a lot worse than even Doug Whaley would ever imagine. I don't think a team in the history of FA has ever signed 10 FA's during the signing period, that's insane......and it would also cost us getting a 3rd round comp. pick for losing Gilmore, since we would've signed more FA than we lost. That's what really makes this plan bad. The restructures of Glenn and Dareus would only push huge cap hits further down the road, and for a team that's much closer to tearing it down then they are winning a SB that is another bad idea. Picking up Tyrod's contract and being forced to pay a very avg. QB $40.5M (what was Whaley thinking!!!!) for 2 years of service is assinine.

This is my reading of the tea leaves John, let me know if I'm that far off: The Bills are more than willing to move on from Tyrod, but they will only do so if they can get their hands on 1 or 2 guys they have their sights set on: Option 1 appears to be Trevor Siemian. Better passing stats than Tyrod, due $1.5M over the next 2 years & 2 years younger than Tyrod. This one is a no-brainer, problem is Siemian is a Bronco, so the Bills are hopeful the Broncos land Romo. If they do, perhaps they entertain trade offers for Siemian. There is no way he is being cut, at that bargain salary for the next 2 years. Another problem now, is that there are rumors the 49ers might be interested in Siemian if the Broncos are willing to deal him. So yea......I could see how the situation is very fluid. Paying Siemian $1.5M for 2 seasons sure as hell beats paying Tyrod $40.5M for the next 2. That additional $39M in cap space over 2 years could go a long way in helping other areas of need on this roster, and there are many. With that said, if the Bills want to land Siemian in a trade they are going to have to convince him Buffalo is better than San Fran and Shanahan, which is a tough sell, IMO. So you can then expect the Bills and 49ers to get into somewhat of a bidding war as to how much they will pay Siemian if he comes in as a bridge QB. In the end, I think it'll be very hard to outduel San Fran.

Great post. I bet no one at One Bills Drive has ever looked at the team this way. If we did, I'd be willing to ebt our team would be way more successful on the field. This post goes in line with a major problem of the Bills that nobody talks about. This team has very few "good" contracts. By good I mean a player another team would love to have on their roster at their current contract aka a tradeable player. If you look at our roster we have very few players that other teams would love to trade for. It's why we will be forced to cut Tyrod......the Bills did a despicable job with that contract extension. Gave Tyrod a free $6.5M raise in '16 and then all the leverage in '17 with a massive $27.5M in cash due to continue the deal. If they gave him a free $6.5M in '16, the Bills are the ones that should be sitting in the driver seat this year with all the leverage, somehow they don't. Really bad deal on their part.

It's good, you won't regret it. This is much more in depth than the magazines. The author and the guy who does the write ups is really locked in. Not a lot of glossy pictures and color though. He has a solid 3 to 4 paragraph writeup on almost every draftable player.

Drew Haddad is looking to get back in the cut (Mike Mayock reference)

The Bills would need to trade down to about pick #19 or lower to expect an additional 2nd round pick to come there way. Check out the draft value trade chart and check it out. With such a deep draft, that everyone's been clamoring about I think it'll be very tough to trade down because I just don't think many teams are going to want to part with a 2nd round pick in a good draft. The more likely scenario, IMO, will be the Bills trading down in the 2nd round. I could certainly imagine a team picking later in round 2 wanting to get up to pick #42 for a guy they have a 1st round grade on who they think can come in and start right away. Take the Seahawks, for example, their 2nd round pick (#58) + their 3rd round pick (#90) would be the perfect match for the Bills 2nd round pick (#44). Don't forget Seattle received two 3rd round compensatory picks (#102 & #106), that's a lot of ammo to move up for a guy they like in the 2nd. I also think Jerry Jones, who loves trading up in round 2, will be looking to do the same this year. Their 2nd and 3rd round picks would be a decent match for the Bills 2nd round pick. With the Bills having no 4th rounder this year I predict they look to trade down somewhere in round 2 or 3 in order to get an additional pick. I'm rooting for it. http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

Just a heads up: I've been purchasing this draft guide for the last 10-12 years. It's an amazing resource to read up on pretty much all of the prospects. This book is in front of me the entire draft. I love Nawrocki's brutal honesty, haters tried to label him a racist, for having harsh takes on some recent black QB's, but it was total baloney. The guy just offers up his honest opinions and he's very tied into the scouting community so he gives you honest info. that you wouldn't hear elsewhere. For those that spend the $14, enjoy! https://www.amazon.com/Draft-2017-Preview-Nolan-Nawrocki/dp/0879465859

I don't think they are clueless at all. I think the new management has a very clear plan, unlike the Bills, and are in the middle of executing that plan. 2 1st round picks, including #1, overall 2 2nd round picks 3rd round pick 2 4th round picks 3 5th round picks the most money to spend in FA I'm actually envious of where the Browns are right now. They have a ton of resources, both $$$ and picks, and it'll be interesting to see what they do.

This is called living in la la land. According to the draft value chart that would be the equivalent of the Browns giving up 1820 pts on the chart for Tyrod, which is slightly more than the 4th overall pick in the draft. If you think any team would value Tyrod like the 4th overall pick and then have to hand him $27.5M in cash, you truly have no understanding of how the NFL works.

You also aren't getting a 2nd round pick for Tyrod, probably not a 3rd rounder either. Had we negotiated a team friendly deal with Tyrod and not given him all the leverage he may have been a tradeable asset. With the terrible deal we gave him, though, I don't see why a team would give us a pick for him. They know we overpayed, they know he's not worth $27.5M in cash in '17, and so they know we are now forced to cut him unless we want to pay stupid $$$$ to a middling QB. At this point I would take any pick from the Browns even if it was a 7th rounder because I think it's in the Bills best interest to move on from Tyrod. I think we need to seriously upgrade the position, and I don't want to pay a QB $27.5M in cash and still not feel comfortable about the position. It's an easy decision, IMO. Save the money, and keep looking. Tough pill to swallow, but any objective Bills fan knows Tyrod will never be a playoff type QB year in and year out, he's just not a good enough of a passer.

Funny you say that, because the guy sounds pretty dumb in any interview I've ever heard of him. His communication skills and ability to give an interview are atrocious. He can't string together a couple sentences without falling all over his words. I've always thought communication abilities tell a lot about intelligence. Pegula's are terrible.

You're absolutely right, which is why it's imperative that the Bills sign 1 less FA than they lose to ensure they lock in that 3rd round comp. pick. Losing a quality player hurts. Saving all the cash helps. Getting a free 3rd round comp. pick really helps. Let's hope One Bills Drive fully understands that and doesn't blow the free 3rd round comp. pick.

I think a sign of good GM's is having a keen sense of what a players worth is and knowing when to let a player walk. I have my concerns about Doug Whaley, like many on this board, but I do have to give him credit where credit is due. Given the benefit of hindsight, he has done a stellar job of not overpaying many payers that have left Buffalo: Jairus Byrd Andy LeVitre C.J. Spiller Da'Norris Searcy All 4 of these players were very good to good players for the Bills, but you can't keep everybody. I view Gilmore as the same type of player. He's good, not great. He's not a blue chip, game breaking defensive player, IMO....and if you're not that, then you don't deserve the money Gilmore will get on the open market. I will be happy to take the 3rd round comp pick in '18 and save the $14M-$15M per year and redistribute that money elsewhere on the roster. Side note: I'll also be happy to take the 5th round comp. pick in '18 for losing Robert Woods. Woods defines an average/replaceable player. There is no reason to pay a player like that $5+M per year, which is what I think he will get on the open market. If we could get him back for $3.5M or so per year I'd be okay with that, but I think he and the Bills both know that won't be happening.

Very good move for the Dolphins. On top of the low price, it appears they've agreed on a new deal which will likely be much less than what the was owed by the Jaguars, which signals another win for them. Much better than agreeing to a trade, and immediately giving them a raise (cough: McCoy: cough) when you don't need to.

Your first point guarantees this team mediocrity for another 3 years. Cant get behind any smart long term view that starts with handing a mediocre QB a lot of cash. Doug Whaley and the Bills, unfortunately, structured this deal with Taylor terribly. There is so much cash upfront that you cant simply keep him for a year or 2. If you're going to keep him around for $27.5M in cash in '17 then you have to keep him for at least 3 years. After watching Tyrod for the past 2 seasons, I don't need to see him fir another 3. I wouldve been down for maybe 1 more year as a bridge QB, which is what he is, but that ship has sailed because our front office put together a terrible deal. There are consequences for putting together bad contracts and giving away all of your leverage. If the Bills were poker players....Doug Whaley would be the guy who buys in 4 or 5 different times....blows all their money...calls it quits....smiles and shakes eveyones hands.....thanks them for taking all his money.....then promptly get laughed at for how bad they were once they are out of earshot. These assinine contract extensions, unneccesary raises, and failure to protect yourself agaisnt drug suspensions are equally embarrassing and inept.

I think that was already answered. If he had a breakout season, which he didn't, we would've franchised him for $6M less then what we currently owe him. We also would've saved $6.5M last year by not giving him an unnecessary raise, which could've been rolled over to this year. So for those that argue the extension at least made the cap hits more palatable.....WRONG again. The $6.5M we would've rolled over had we not given him an extension would've put us in the same place cap wise, all while saving $12.5M in cash over the 2 years. When you look at this extension it was an absolute disaster, and for those that try and defend it, you're clearly not thinking objectively. And to Kirby's point that Tyrod "deserved" the raise. What Tyrod deserved is to pick what contract he wanted when he was a FA in '15. He chose the contract the Bills put on the table, which probably gave him the best chance to start. The Bills in no way owed him anything on top of what he agreed to as a FA. Unfortuantey, we seem to have a GM and Front office that uses the same flawed logic, and it's created the most predictable of situations: cutting an okay/average player because they were morons and paid him like a really good player. Couple that crap contract with them signing Dareus to a massive $$$ deal with no language about smoking pot, which he already proved he will.........and you're starting to see how incompetent this organization is. We all see the losing on the field, it's much more obvious. But the losing off the field, as an organization, when it comes to contracts and player development, while not as obvious, is equally pathetic.

Let me also point out another reason the Bills totally messed up by giving Tyrod this extension: If the Bills had not offered Tyrod an extension, and let him walk this offseason (as it appear they will), they would've been in line to receive a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2018. Instead, we are now forced to cut him, rather then have a player on an expired contract which is the difference between a 3rd round pick and no 3rd round pick. So on top of giving him a free $6 or $7 million in '16 (mistake #1), having a huge amount of cash required in '17 to continue the extension (mistake #2), they also cost themselves a 3rd round comp. pick in '18 by making this a standard contract extension rather than a team option (mistake #3). A team like the Patriots who are much smarter than our Bills would've made the extension a team option, that way if we declined it Tyrod would've still been considered an expired contract FA and thus part of the comp. pick formula. Instead the moronic Front Office we have, blew it, by not understanding how to structure this deal to ensure we'd get a comp. pick if we didn't want him moving forward. Go look at how the Pats structured Darelle Revis' deal back when they signed him...and see how they received a 3rd round pick for him a year after they declined a massive $20M team option and you'll begin to see the difference between this organization and that organization. It really is a joke.