maddog

Looking at Indy's schedule, their finale at Denver is almost guaranteed to be meaningless unless they lose to Baltimore this weekend. Unfortunately, that would really hurt the Bills chances of catching Baltimore. Because San Diego plays at Indy in week 16 (game 15) the winner of that game has the tiebreaker. So if they both go into that game 11-3, the winner gets the third seed no matter what happens the following week. Therefore, under that scenario both teams are locked into the 3rd and 4th seed and play meaningless games the following week. The long and the short of it is we need Cleveland (ugh!) to beat San Diego this weekend and hope San Diego beats Indy the following week in Indy. Otherwise, (1)Indy is playing their JV against Denver in week 17 or (2) Baltimore beats Indy this weekend. I still think Denver can drop their next two on the road. We just can't count on getting any help from Indy against Denver.

I generally like Carucci but that has to be one of the worst "power rankings" around. He simply ranks the teams 1-12 based on won/loss record. My three-year old daughter could do that.

I think Coach of the Year awards in sports are stupid. It almost always goes to the coach whose team showed the most improvement over the following year. Schottenheimer will win the award most certainly. Are we to believe that he is somehow coaching better this year than last year? Is he coaching better than Bill Belicheck? Having said all that, I think TD nailed the coaching pick with Mularkey. I like his game day decisions, the offensive game planning/creativity and his overall demeanor. I think we have a keeper for a coach.

KC isn't looking too good. However, I still can't see them being much of an underdog at home. KC at home still carries weight in the bettors minds and that's all that matters when it comes to the line. Denver hasn't been all that impressive of late either.

I'm surprised the Bills are favored by 3. I would put the line at pick 'em for the Broncos/Chiefs.

That was a phenomenal play. It seemed like he was in the air forever. As I was watching it, I'm saying to myself "there is no way he makes that play." But he did.

Cleveland had six first downs - two rushing, three paassing and one by penalty. Buffalo had 22, including a whopping 15 rushing.

Mort reports that Weis agreed to a six year 12 million dollar deal. To be announced Monday.

Trivia - Who scored the first touchdown in Bills Super Bowl history? How about the obscure Don Smith. A one yard touchdown run. I bet most people don't know that one. After his career he was arrested on possession of cocaine I believe.

I'm not giving up on the Jets. I still think they can lose three of their last four. I don't think we're going to see much this weekend that will change the playoff picture. The best chance for an upset is Chicago over Jacksonville. Next week is when things get real interesting with the schedule of games.

I posted the results of a similar exercise yesterday and came up with a 56% chance of making the playoffs. The individual game percentages were pretty similar. What I find interesting is that most people still feel the playoffs are a longshot even if the Bills win out. I'm not guaranteeing they would get in but their chances aren't bad.

True. Albeit small, there still is that possibility. Looking at the schedule, I think we'll have a pretty good idea of what may happen or need to happen for us to get in after week 15 (game 14). There are some big games that week (NYJ vs. Sea, Buf @ Cin, Balt @ Indy, Jax @ GB, and Den @ KC).

I don't think Miami is as bad as we're portraying them to be. They have been in most games this year, in fact they played Pittsburgh pretty tough if I'm not mistaken.

No, if they win out, they have a 56% chance of getting in. Despite my optimism, I think the chances of the Bills sweeping the next four is probably less than 50%. But that's why they play the games. I was really trying to figure out the rest of the games would shake out for the other contenders and how that would impact our playoff possibilities.

I had WGR on after the game yesterday and most of the callers were complaining. Hard to believe.

It gets too complicated if the Bills finish 9-7. First of all, it brings other teams into the mix, like Cincinnati. Second, we are so weak on tie-breakers, all the teams would have to fall apart for us to make it. I don't think it is an impossibility, but the chances of us getting in at 9-7 are pretty close to 0% I think.

I believe that was just after they called Teague for the brutal hold on the McGahee screen.

First things first, we cannot overstate how big the Cinci/Balt SD/Den and Pitt/Jax games were yesterday for our playoff chances. They dramatically improved the possibility of the Bills getting in. I'm a number cruncher who does statistical analysis for a living. So I figured I would play out the remaining schedule to see the chances of the Bills making the playoffs if they win the rest of their games. The following are the contenders schedules with the likelihood of them winning the game (my estimates) Jets - at Pitt(25%) Seattle(65%) NE(25%) at St Louis (45%) Baltimore - NYG(75%) at Indy(25%) at Pitt(30%) Miami(90%) Jacksonville - Chic(70%) at GB(30%) Hous(60%) at Oak(50%) Denver - Miami(90%) at KC(50%) at Tenn(50%) Indy(50%) Based on those likelihoods, here are the probabilities of making the playoffs (yes, I figured out tie-breakers!) NY Jets 66% Buffalo 56% Denver 46% Baltimore 25% Jacksonville 8% Of course, we all know they play the games on the field and upsets happen. But it is nice to know that if the Bills win out, they have a pretty good shot at getting in. There are some big games/pitfalls. If the Jets beat NE, our probability of making the playoffs goes from 56% to 37% since we will lose the tie-breaker to the Jets. If you assume Indy has nothing to play for and mails it in against Denver (giving the Broncs the W), our probability goes from 56% to 38%. Looking at the schedule for this upcoming week, as long as the Bills win, I don't expect anything to really hurt our chances. Even if the Jets win, it wouldn't kill us. If any of the other teams lose, it's a bonus. One last thing to remember, we really need Pitt, NE and Indy to come through. I'm a little worried that they may slip up toward the end of the season. They have a combined five games against, NYJ, Balt, and Denver. GO BILLS!

See Kzoo Mike post. If we tie the Jets, and they lose to NE, common opponents is the tie-breaker before conference record. We would likely beat the Jet son that tie-breaker. NE MUST BEAT THE JETS.

Thanks for the clarification. I'm not sure why I thought one of the schools was Columbia.

Nice analysis. Furthermore, any three-way tie involving us and the Jets would favor the Bills as well. So, if the Ravens, Bills & Jets all finished 10-6, the Ravens & Bills would advance.

I saw the piece on Sprint football (the 166lb weight limit). It is currently played by five schools - Army, Navy and three Ivy schools I believe (Penn, Columbia and one other). It was a really cool piece. It talked about how these kids are really good players, many all-state, they just aren't very big. It's a fast game, hence the name "Sprint". They play before crowds of less than 500. After you watch the piece, it makes you feel that big-time college athletics really have gotten out of hand. The kids playing Sprint football truly embody the spirit of college football. By the way, because of their character, their smarts and their schools the average salary of players who have played sprint football is something like $230K.

I was screaming "QB draw" at the TV when Seattle showed five wide at the goal-line. I think that play has run its course in the NFL. When guys like you and me can spot it, its time to scrap that play.

Early in the year it was easy to rip the offensive line for their play - particularly pass protection. I was one of the rippers. Consider these stats: First four games (0-4): 19 sacks Last seven games (5-2): 9 sacks I'm sure it is a combination of the O-Line, Bledsoe, McGahee, coaching & cheeseburgers contributing to the improved sack totals. Nevertheles the line does deserve praise for their recent play. I would even go so far as to suggest their pass blocking is superior to their run blocking right now. I haven't seen any gaping holes for Willis to run through. Give McNally time though and he'll fix that problem. Props to the O-Line!

You beat me to it. Some people are forgetting that we jumped to our lead almost entirely on our passing attack - and good D.