maddog

What many observers seem to be overlooking is the fact that St. Louis is considerably better at home than on the road. Similarly, after the San Diego game in week 2, the Jets performance on the road this year has been subpar. In my view, there is no way the Jets should be favored to win this game. Consider the following: 1 - Since the San Diego game, the Jets have scored 7 touchdowns in 6 road games. 2 - The Jets are considered a good running team, yet their yard per rush is 3.7 on the road versus 5.3 at home. 3 - The Jets have a total of 4 sacks in their last 4 road games and will likely be without their best pass rusher, John Abraham. 4 - The Jets have a good third down conversion % of 44%, yet it is 55% at home and 30% on the road. 5 - In their last three home games, all wins, the Rams have averaged 35 rush attempts for 182 yards and are averaging 4.9 yards per rush at home. I don't expect a blowout. There are areas of concern, specifically, the Rams penchant for turnovers (2 per game at home), sacks allowed (almost 3 per game at home) and their horrendous kickoff coverage (giving up 27 yards per kick and 12 yards per punt at home). Plus, you never know when Martz will get really stupid. However, the Rams should win this game. I will remind you that last week I had a similar post suggesting that Houston had a good shot at beating Jacksonville.

Some of you are aware of this website: footballoutsiders.com. They have very analytical, objective information. Their current take on the Bills and their potential playoff success: Sitting right below the big four this week is the hottest team in football, the Buffalo Bills. We make fun of the Bills a lot around here, mostly because a few of us (me, Ian, Al) are definitively anti-Bledsoe. But with one game remaining on the season, the Bills are currently the top team in both defense and special teams, and Bledsoe can’t do anything to ruin that. They’ve actually moved up to third place in weighted DVOA, meaning that the numbers believe they are a better team than either Philadelphia or New England. Subjectively, I don’t believe this – the Bills would fall below the Eagles if you took out last night’s game, and their two biggest losses of the season have come against New England. But if the Bills manage to get into the playoffs, they will be a serious danger to whoever draws them in the first round. While they probably have a better shot at beating the Chargers, a matchup with the Colts would be the more interesting game, pitting this season’s strongest defense against the strongest offense. The Colts, of course, already played a game like this, since Baltimore was the highest-rated defense when two weeks ago. The other thing about a Colts-Bills playoff game is that Dwight Freeney might sack Bledsoe ten times.

On board!

I think we are all overhyping Jacksonville a bit. They may win their next two, but they are very capable, if not likely of losing one of their next two. Granted, they have played a tough schedule, play hard and are in pretty much every game. But, consider the following: 1. They already lost to Houston 20-6 in week 8. 2. Prior to beating Chicago and Green Bay, they had lost 4 of 5 including a home loss to Tennessee. 3. The one win in that stretch was over Detroit, in overtime. 4. Of their 8 wins, only one has been by more than 6 points, and 6 have been by 3 points or less or in OT. Lets not put them at 10 wins just yet.

I find it interesting that everyone assumes Nick Saban would be a highly successful NFL head coach. Who knows? He may or may not be. Some coaches are better college coaches than professional coaches. Look at Rick Pitino and Steve Spurrier. Highly successful college coach, colossal flop as professional coaches. You know who would be the most sought after college coach - along with Saban - if he already didn't fail miserably as a head coach? Pete Carroll. It just strikes me as alot of money to pay a guy that has never been a head coach at the professional level.

I'm pretty sure Jacksonville and Baltimore would be in based on strength of wins. But that won't be known until the end of the season. One thing for sure, Buffalo and the Jets would be out.

Totally agree - posted similar sentiment earlier today.

No... they just stink.

Quite frankly, I've seen hits this year - helmet to helmet - that were much more vicious that did not result in an ejection.

1 - As much as I don't like Donovan Darius and Jack Del Rio, the problem I have with his ejection was that it was handed out like the NHL hands out suspensions - based on the result. Had Ferguson popped up and gone back to the huddle, there would have been no ejection. The NHL is notorious for this, basing suspensions on how bad a player is injured rather than the intent of the penalized player. 2 - I think the play of Tenn/KC last week and the Dolphins last night show that very few teams "lay down" when they have nothing to play for. They may not win, but Houston, Oakland, Tennessee, and Miami (if necessary) will all play hard these last two weeks. 3 - Depending on how things play out, Indy could be in the very strange situation of dictating who they play in the first round of the playoffs. Do they play hard and beat Denver so they can play a hot Buffalo team or do they rest starters, show nothing to Denver, likely lose and play Denver the following week? I think most teams, if asked, would rather play Denver than Buffalo right now. That could present Indy with a conflict of interest.

Strength of schedule will not be a tie-breaker for the Bills unless you are talking about a 9-7 tie for the sixth seed. We will own the tie-breaker over the Jets on common opponents and lose to all others on conference record.

As long as Baltimore loses tonight (and we beat SF of course), the home finale will not be meaningless. We cannot be eliminated next week unless the Ravens win tonight and next week and the Jets win next week as well.

That avatar is too funny!

Where did they come up with this garbage of equating the velocity of a football pass with that of a thrown baseball. A football thrown at 65 mph is equivalent to.......a football thrown at 65 mph. I'm sure they are using physics to determine that if you can throw a football a certain speed then that equates to how fast they could throw a baseball. So what. They are throwing footballs out there. Not baseballs.

I think the spate of injuries the Bengals have had coupled with the weather for tomorrow tilts this game decidedly in Buffalo's favor. I was more worried about the game a week ago than I am now and I usually get more worried the closer a game gets. The Bengals will be short their starting QB, C, DE and 2 DBs. Furthermore, their backup Kitna is solid, however he does not have a particularly strong arm. With the cold and wind, he may have a hard time throwing. Finally, with regard to the weather, the Bills have played numerous bad weather or wind games already this year (Miami, Arizona, Cleveland). They should be able to handle the weather without too much difficulty. I don't think Cinci has played in adverse weather yet this year.

I'm not implying that Poole's injury makes them more vulnerable. It's just an observation based on their play of the last couple of weeks. They don't seem to be as strong defensively.

Additionally, the starting cornerback (O'Neal), defensive end (Clemons) and the starting safety I believe are out as well. Today's Buffalo News said that the Bengals will be without five starters. Could you imagine if the Bills were going into this game without Bledsoe, Teague, Schobel, Clements and Milloy? I don't think we would be too confident.

I think it is evident to anyone who has watched the Steelers this year that they are a good, solid football team. However, they do not appear unbeatable. As a Bills fan, I like my chances versus the Steelers better than versus the Patriots.

I'm getting more and more worried about the Pats/Jets game. We need the Pats to win that game and I just see them a bit more vulnerable than they were three or four week sago.

It's supposed to be a little breezy also.

This is a big weekend for our playoff chances. Of course we need the Bills to win and of course we want the Jets, Ravens, Broncos and Jaguars to lose. But of the four competitors this is my view of the importance of each of them losing this weekend (in order of importance): 1 - Baltimore at Indy - we really need the Ravens to lose this game. Otherwise, they only need to beat Pitt or Miami (at home) to edge out the Bills. If Baltimore wins this game, we will have a hard time catching them. 2 - Jacksonville at Green Bay - I'm afraid this game will be closer than many people think. If Jax wins, we must rely on Houston or Oakland beating them. Conventional wisdom says the Florida team has no chance in Lambeau in December. However, it was only two years ago that Atlanta blew out Green Bay in a playoff night game at Lambeau. Go Pack! 3 -Denver at Kansas City - I have no idea what will happen in this game. Both teams are very difficult to figure out. It's looking less and less like the Indy at Denver game in week 17 will have much meaning for Indy. 4 - NY Jets vs. Seattle - I'm surprised the Jets are favored by as much as they are (6 last I saw). It would be great if the Jets lost but of the three remaining games, this is the one they are most likely to win. Win or lose, their game next week against New England goes to the top of the list. They must lose that one. Most scenarios that put us in the playoffs include us and the Broncos or us and the Jets getting in. That's why I put less importance on those two games this weekend.

This info can't be correct as it would imply Buffalo's average per rush is somewhere around 3.2 when it is actually 3.8. Maybe they are using "scrimmage yards" or some other stat like that. Regarding Willis, his ypc is 3.8 which is just about the same as LaDainian Tomlinson who is at 3.9. I don't think there is any doubt about the quality of back that LT is.

The Bills chances at the playoffs are considerably higher than Cincinnati's

I don't know. The injury risk is too high. Dungy seems pretty conservative in that regard. Hopefully the Bills won't need Denver to lose that one. Otherwise, I hope you're right.

I'm worried Tom White's officiating crew has our game. Their horrible!