Brand J

All while conceding his starting spot to Milano. Who knows how many tackles he would’ve ended up with if he had remained in the lineup.

I wonder if Josh had flipped the ball to the ref that gave the first, if he still would’ve conceded his spot to the other one. Just a frustrating series of downs, should’ve had the first twice.

If you could guarantee me we’d be getting a DL who’s as good at his position as James Cook is at his, I’d entertain the trade. Without that guarantee, the 2nd round rookie has higher odds to bust or be nothing more than average than he does to become a pro bowl contributor.

One of the best duos of all time. Hall & Oates!

Would have had the first down with this tech

Some could say Sweat is also still improving. He wasn’t a starter his first 3 years and he’s put in work the last 4. And of course he also has a double digit sack season on his resume. It’s just my beliefs though, if I’m re-signing Rousseau to be DE2 on my DL (which he is), I’m not going above $20M/yr for him, or any other DE2.

There’s a 93+% recovery rate by the hands team. When kickers were hitting extra points from the 2 yard line, they moved it back to the 16 to make it more difficult. The success rate for extra points is still high, but at least it’s not the 99% of years ago. We need a little more variance in the 6-7% recovery rate for onside kicks.

Wonder if they can take the refs out of it somehow, but keep a kicking component, something extremely difficult. I’d say a 64 yard made FG for the right to possess the ball again, but that wouldn’t be fair because all the kickers don’t have the leg for it. What else could we entertain that’s low percentage? Perhaps some sort of coffin corner punt? Downed or out of bounds inside the 5 yard line (kicking from the 50?) I don’t know, but there has to be a fair alternative to the current onside kick.

I wouldn’t say “considerably” worse. Rousseau had had the better career, but it’s close. If Rousseau is considered Robin and we still need to find Batman, I’d rather Robin be at Sweat’s price point than Groot’s - just under $20M/yr. The Batman equivalent, if we can trade for him, will command over $30M/yr. Not sure how PFF has Greg at 9 regular season sacks, Pro Football Reference has him at 8. Slight variances with other stats too.

Lots of talk this offseason about players moving around. Seems like more than other years.

A sneak onside kick is no longer possible and those were recovered at a much higher rate than regular, expected onside kicks. I think the recovery percentage last year was somewhere around 7%. I’m cool with a 4th down snap from the 30 replacing the onside kick, but keep it at 15 yards. I do worry about officiating influencing the play, especially a ticky tack call.

Josh Sweat looked like a man amongst boys in that SB, he whipped Joe Thuney over and over. Rousseau and Sweat mirror one another in production, except that Sweat is forecast as $19M/yr and there are talks of the Eagles letting him walk and going with Jalyx Hunt as his replacement. Rousseau would look better with a stronger supporting cast, of course, but I’ve never seen him look as dominant as Sweat did in that SB. Well, with the exception of the opening game against Kyler Murray, but that was against Murray in game 1 of the year, not Mahomes in the playoffs.

Could easily be trading James Cook for the next Boogie Basham or AJ Epenesa.

Let them draft the unproven guy, no guarantee he works out as well as Cook. Also of course no guarantee we hit on the 2nd rounder we get in exchange. We know what Cook is, we don’t know what these rookies are or will be.

No way, Cook would run all over the Bills. With the lack of foot speed in the secondary a few of those plays would be big plays, making Mahomes’s job that much easier.

Can’t speak for others, but I don’t solely stat watch. If Rousseau was a constant disruption, always playing like his hair was on fire, but just wasn’t getting the sacks, I’d put it on others around him to step their game up. Like I said there’s far too many times where he’s completely invisible and ineffective. When Beane selected him and Basham back to back, he said his goal going into the draft was to “disrupt the QB.” Rousseau is a high end run stopping DE, not the monster pass rusher that Beane wanted and that’s not worth going north of $20M/yr.

Aside from the first game of the year where he piled up 3 sacks against Murray, Rousseau had a total of 5 sacks in the other 15 games (he sat out the finale). He’s above average against the run but an average pass rusher. I’m just not comfortable giving him the higher end of his contract projection. Too many games I forget he’s even out there. I’ve said the same about Oliver in the past, but they got Oliver at what I thought was a fair deal. I was happy with that signing even though others weren’t. I think he and Rousseau are similar impact players with Oliver maybe being a tick higher.

They’re a billion dollar organization, they certainly have the money to build a plane if they wanted to.

Thanks for the find. I was sitting home screaming “watch the QB boot!” I remember that’s what the Chiefs went to in their crucial 4th and 1 play against the 49ers in the SB, same side too - always to Mahomes right. That falls on the coaches and the player for situational awareness. I didn’t study an ounce of film and knew a boot was a high probability in that situation. I’d still pass at anything more than $18M/yr, that’d be my ceiling. I imagine the team will be drafting multiple DEs, not just because “affecting the QB” remains a huge need, but they have to have a contingency plan if Rousseau walks.

As for travel, it’d be cool if the Bills incorporated something like players of the game (those who get game balls) get to sit in first class on the way back and on the way to the next game, even if it bumps multiple coaches to coach.

He’s also supposed to be an all world edge setter and on that crucial 4th and 1, Mahomes went right around him as he was caught looking inside at the RB. You need your $23M/yr defensive end to make that play.

My misunderstanding. You said Khalil got the deal because “it’s not easy to find players like him” and then later stated it’s easy to find RBs like Cook, just not the elite ones. I took that to mean you believed Shakir was elite since “players like him are difficult to find.” Of course there are going to be more swings and misses on WRs, there’s 3-4 of them on the field at any given time versus 1 RB. Volume wise they have to be selected at a higher clip. I love the deal Shakir got, but nothing you said has convinced me there’s not an inequity between WR and RB contracts. Cook will likely sign for less than $15M/yr, but it isn’t because his value to the Bills offense is less than Shakir’s, it’s because the market value between the two positions are out of whack.

There has never been a point in the NFL where WR has been more bountiful as it is now. It’s the inverse of RB, where the league used to be filled with good backs and the emphasis was on the running game. The best athletes used to play RB, now receivers get the money. You can find a Shakir in the 5th round relatively easy now. I mean, Amon Ra went in the 4th. Nacua, Adams, Hill, Diggs, all in the 5th, etc. WRs are even easier to find than RBs. I’m happy with the re-sign, but Shakir is not some elite, hard to find player. A deal got done because it’s a good contract for all parties, perhaps even a bit of an underpay for Shakir. My whole argument is that there’s an inequity between WR and RB contracts, but that may begin to change with the amount of receivers coming in and immediately contributing and the defense’s goal to defend the pass.

Relative to his RB peers I would agree, I think his value slots around $12M/yr. But relative to his impact on the team I think he’s easily worth $15M/yr. People have argued that a great RB isn’t the driving force to SB appearances. Well, a great WR is even less of a driving force, yet an upper echelon receiver makes 2-3x more than an upper echelon RB despite touching the ball 2-3x less and without the added responsibility of blocking for the QB. There’s a great inequity between those two positions. With the way defenses defend nowadays, a Saquon Barkley is arguably just as valuable to his QB, if not more so, than a Jamarr Chase or J Jefferson. And we just saw Barkley reap offseason awards to prove that point.

Because you need a great QB and teams with those QBs were loading up on WRs as the league turned into an aerial assault. Now, teams are seeing the value of pairing a great RB with a great QB as defenses continuously run cover 2 to limit explosive plays. A great RB makes your great QB’s job much easier. As you referenced, KC was so keen on stopping Barkley, Hurts had little resistance through the air. I’m for replacing Cook ONLY if we get another explosive RB in his spot. I don’t think Ray Davis or Ty Johnson as lead backs would get you the same amount of explosive plays if their workload was bigger. Less explosive plays = more of a struggle to score.