Coach Tuesday

Is there an echo in here?

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They could have had BOTH. Your beef should be with Cody Ford, not sure why you're making it so hard on yourself.

Kind of disagree. The numbers may have been misleading in projecting failure - but that doesn’t mean it was reasonable to predict success. The fact that he was in a bad offense with no playmakers might explain why his numbers were bad, but it still leaves you with very little to project that he’d be great (or even mediocre) with a better supporting cast. My issue with the pick at the time was the fact that the Bills as an organization did not have a history of developing outliers, and certainly did not seem set up to do so Josh’s rookie year (no real QB coach, no vet QB to learn behind, no receivers or offensive line). Given the state of the roster and coaching staff, and the team’s horrible player development record going back two decades at that point, I didn’t want them taking “projects” or “risks” - I wanted them to pick someone who could run the offense quickly and cerebrally to make up for the lack of weapons. I was worried they’d ruin a project like Josh and we’d be back to drafting another QB a few years later. They - more specifically Josh - proved me wrong. It’s simply amazing to think about the situation he was put in his first season (Peterman, no weapons, etc.) and the fact he persevered and developed is a true testament to his unique football character. It’s a great story and I love watching the guy play every week, I wouldn’t trade him for any other QB.

😂

I thought Allen had an amazing game and I also thought (without film study) he left about 150 yards on the table. I would guess he'd say the same thing and so would Daboll. Nothing wrong with it, I'm sure he'll keep working and have even better games. Scratching the surface.

You will get flamed - but actually, I've been thinking about McD this week and whether this might be a statement game for him. Sean McVeigh gets a ton of credit (rightfully) for being a young wiz coach. McDermott is in the same general age and experience bracket and, while he's considered "solid" and "up and coming," he's not fawned over like McV is. If McD has any ego (and most good coaches do), he's eager to show on Sunday that he can match wits with McV, that his defensive acumen is up to par with McV's offensive acumen, etc. Put another way - McD might not know who the Rams' players are but he DEFINITELY knows who their coach is and doesn't want to get embarrassed by him in a battle of first-place teams. Sneaky interesting theme for this week that nobody is talking about. Interesting - would you say he's "f**'ing crazy"?

yes

Interesting if you're right. That would be a big jump for him - that was the defense he had the most trouble with last year.

Who are these demons you battle, eball? Name them!

Actually the ONLY look that gave Allen trouble against the Phins was Cover 0 and I was surprised they didn’t use it more. Not sure he really solved it last week and he still has some work to do there (going back to last season). I expect we’ll see a lot more Cover 0 the next few weeks.

Football Outsiders analysis of the Rams Jared Goff is -- to steal a Ben Muth quote we posted in Audibles in Week 1 -- a JUGS machine playing quarterback. You point him the right way and hope nobody hits him before the throw goes off. There's nothing entertaining about him. He crumples whenever what has been pre-diagnosed falls apart. So it brings me no great pleasure to report that the Rams are at it again behind a more complex McVay offense and a running attack that is working without Todd Gurley.

That’s fine, they are unabashed Patriots fan stat geeks - totally good with calling them out for being mean. But slamming the entire analytical approach because it didn’t predict success for Allen is way too harsh.

Doubtful Akers plays but don’t sleep on Darrell Henderson - he hits the hole fast. Have been watching clips of him and he’s scary.

They didn’t do a unique analysis of Allen, eball. They ran the entire QB class through their model and wrote an article predicting outcomes based on past performance. His prospects were ranked very very low. They acknowledged today that their model may have failed. If that’s the case, they’ll try to fix it. I don’t know what your gripe is. Football Outsiders is an analytics website primarily for sports betting and fantasy football. They don’t have the bandwidth to go meet with Josh Allen’s pee wee football coach prior to running their predraft article on that year’s QB crop. if they had factored in that he was a late bloomer with relatively little football experience, the prediction would’ve been even more negative! They are pretty frank about not being perfect - no model is perfect. It just has to be better than any other model and if you think all of analytics is useless because it’s never perfect, well, I don’t know what to tell you.

This is your best one yet. Well done.

It’s just the Cali accent.

You are vastly oversimplifying it and it's partially because you're in a 2-0 frenzy this week and need to calm down a bit. It's perfectly ok to have a measured discussion about football, eball, even with the Bills off to a hot start. You're misunderstanding what FO does. They didn't simply say "he's inaccurate" and roll from there. They create (and constantly tweak, perhaps unlike PFF) predictive models based on historical performance. What they did was say, based on Josh Allen's college comparables, here is what our model predicts - and it wasn't an optimistic prediction. Predictive models aren't 100% accurate and, often, they need to be tweaked when an outlier like Josh comes along. I suspect, if Allen develops into a consistent high-performer, FO will acknowledge as much (as they started to this week) and take a hard look at how their model may have missed and what they can do to tweak it. Not everything is black and white. Life is complex. There are a bunch of very vocal posters here who HATE nuance more than anything else and it's exhausting.

Right. They factor in both the result and the intended result. It's a much better model (though still not perfect). That said, I'm amazed to see Josh ranked #1 this week in QB DVOA, never thought I'd see the day.

You are talking about PFF, not FO, right?

He made a real impact against the Dolphins!

Carr is dealing.

Zay Jones!

“They can’t stop Josh Allen, the Miami Dolphins - they have no answer for him.”

Does this mean we should take your view about Edmunds with a grain of salt?