BillsFanForever19

I mean, we really can't afford to do anything too liberal. With everything Joe Marino did (or as little as he did, depending on your view), there's just 5m left over for Draft Picks, the Practice Squad, emergency spending, etc. We'd have to find a way to come up with even more by the end of Camp just to do the conservative projection he did. And things like Dion's and Taron's extensions aren't guaranteed to be hammered out between the agents and Beane by the start of Free Agency. The list of expired or released contracts this season is MASSIVE. Even if you take into account the players that we've re-signed so far, the players he projects re-signing, and players that have already been effectively replaced last season (ie Douglas for White, Joseph for Phillips, Murray for Hines, etc.) - there's still 17 bodies from the 53 that need to be replaced, with only 2 picks before the end of Round 4: Kyle Allen (Replaced by Mitch Trubisky) Damien Harris Latavius Murray Ty Johnson (Re-Signed Projection) Nyheim Hines (Not on the Roster Last Season) Gabe Davis Deonte Harty Trent Sherfield Quintin Morris (Re-Signed) Mitch Morse Ryan Bates David Edwards (Re-Signed) Leonard Floyd AJ Epenesa (Re-Signed Projection) Shaq Lawson Daquan Jones (Re-Signed Projection) Tim Settle Jordan Phillips Linval Joseph (Midseason Replacement for Phillips) Poona Ford Tyrel Dodson Tyler Matakevitch Tre White (Replaced by Douglas) Dane Jackson (Re-Signed Projection) Siran Neal Jordan Poyer Micah Hyde Taylor Rapp (Re-Signed) Cam Lewis (Re-Signed Projection) Like it or not, a good chunk of our money is going to have to go to depth players. As it is, with this projection - we'd be relying on 6 Rookies between the Draft and Undrafted Pool for the 53. That's already double the amount of Rookie players we had on the roster last year in Kincaid, Cybo, and Dorian. I know most fans are in the mind of "the window is closing - we have to get major difference makers now". But with the shape the roster is in, where we are cap wise, and where we're picking in the Draft - this year we're just going to have to do the best we can to fill the 53 with the best we can get across the board. Luckily, the core of what gets us to the dance is largely in place and the players we're replacing won't be difficult to upgrade with even conservative options.

That's Josh's blind side. It doesn't matter how good he is at evading if he doesn't see it coming.

They will have to make some concessions at some spots, probably starting with Snead this year. But the fact remains, they have it do it. It's not exactly "1m in cap space but managed to pull it off!" situation.

Maybe if you're picked in the Top 10. To get an average to above average starter at DE at Pick 30 - you're doing pretty good.

He's still grinding that "you guys hypothesized that maybe Beane might move Douglas" axe.

Joe Marino from Locked on Bills does some really good work. I watch a lot of his stuff. He did a video the other day where he played the role of Brandon Beane and took the wheel in Free Agency. Broke things down pretty well in a realistic fashion, why each player fits, and included forecasted numbers from Pro Football Focus. Here's the video with Cliff notes below of the moves he suggested: Re-Structure QB Josh Allen - Saves 24m Re-Structure TE Dawson Knox - Saves 6m Re-Structure DT Ed Oliver - Saves 3.94m Extend OT Dion Dawkins - Saves 6.5m Extend CB Taron Johnson - Saves 4.4m 36.6m Under (+10.2m on 6/1 from Tre) Re-Sign DT Daquan Jones - 2 yr 12m Re-Sign DE AJ Epenesa - 3 yr 20.25m Re-Sign CB Dane Jackson - 1 yr 3m Re-Sign CB Cam Lewis - 1 yr 2m Re-Sign RB Ty Johnson - 1 yr 1.2m Sign DT Shelby Harris - 1 yr 3m Sign DT Greg Gaines - 1 yr 2m Sign DE Carl Lawson - 1 yr 3.5m Sign S Alohi Gilman - 2 yr 6m Sign S Ashtyn Davis - 1 yr 2m Sign C Brian Allen - (Forgets to say contract) Sign OT Kendall Lamm - 1 yr 1.5m Sign WR Noah Brown - 2 yr 7m Sign WR/KR Devin Duvernay - 2 yr 6m Sign RB Ezekiel Elliott - 1 yr 2.5m Sign LB Del'Shawn Phillips - 1 yr 1.5m

Actually, they're 7.4m under and they'll get another 19.8m when they trade Snead, which is probably coming soon. Then they're 89.7m under next year.

I mean, yeah. But we were signing guys like Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty, David Edwards, Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, Kyle Allen, Taylor Rapp, Ty Johnson and Connor McGovern with Leonard Floyd being the biggest star of the bunch. We have even more holes to fill this season and even less than we had last season. We're still over the cap right now and the only thing we can guarantee by Day 1 right now is Josh's restructure. So we'll be continuing to do more signings "right up against it" just like last season. But there's a major difference between making signings "right up against it" and making MAJOR 32m aav signings "right up against it". It's going to be similar signings to last year. Guys in the lower to mid tiers, possible diamonds in the rough, and guys available late in FA that have to accept less. Nothing at the highest price tag right out of the gate.

In the rotation, sure. That can happen. But the fact remains that for the cost of a Bosa or Mack as well as the options that will be available to them (neither is going to sign somewhere that they aren't Starting) - the Starters would def be Groot and Bosa/Mack. And the Starters get substantially more reps than the guys who cycle in.

How many Kordell Stewart types have existed in the NFL since Kordell Stewart almost 30 years ago?

Legette keeps checking the boxes.

Of course he's going to do the best for the team. But if you think he and Von didn't have a discussion about future plans for the position before he gifted over close to 9m in a cut, choosing to turn them into incentives that he didn't have to do - in regards to whether he'll have a good chance to hit them or not before he agreed to it - I think you're kidding yourself. He's going to insure he's not 100% putting all his eggs into the Von basket and has insurance there. But there's a big difference between covering our butts and completely closing the door on any possible chance Von could start before seeing him in Training Camp.

We'll definitely get a guy as insurance in FA and/or Draft someone in the mid Rounds. I think AJ coming back is way more likely now that Von did what he did. But I don't see any way we're going to go out and get a Superstar that guarantees Von won't reach the incentives he conceded to and guarantees he has no chance of earning his job back.

Yes, there's a rotation. But there's a big difference between being the starter and coming off the bench in terms of reps. Khalil Mack would unequivocally move Von to rotational. AJ Epenesa got the highest number of snaps last season outside of Groot and Floyd, our starters. He saw the field 36% of the time. This would be Von's ceiling with a Mack signing. No way he agreed to hand over that money and turn it all incentives on the pretense that he would use that money to completely replace him without even a chance to show last season was a mirage and make it so that he only has 36% or less of the snaps to earn the incentives. AJ Epenesa - I can see that. A guy who can step in and take on more reps if Miller doesn't work out without completely closing the door on him Starting like a Mack would.

Do you really think Von Miller and Beane worked out a deal so that Beane could get 8.5m in cap relief from Von, graciously turning it into incentives - just so Beane could turn around and use that money on someone who will totally replace him and guarantee he doesn't even have a chance to hit any of those incentives? While I'm sure we'll either sign a vet for insurance in the event that Miller simply can't bounce back - it's not going to be someone like Khalil friggin' Mack.

My thought is Braelon Allen. A very similar runner to Henry in terms of size and play style, although less of a Receiver. He'll be available later than Benson and is someone we interviewed at the Combine.

The problem isn't the logic of whether he'd be good for us on the team or not. The problem is with the logic of everything else - him choosing us at a reduced role and a reduced price when he doesn't have to settle for either and has other playoff contenders who will give him both. Even then, that "reduced" price is probably 3-4x what we've paid for that role in the past, when we were in a more questionable position than we're in at now with RB1, are in worse shape cap wise, and there's many more less expensive options than in other years. We're still over the cap and the only thing we can guarantee will be done by the time FA starts is the Josh Restructure. The lack of logic that we'll get into a Bidding War and pay much more than is necessary for the role we have and that Henry will have to settle for it far outweighs the logic of whether he's a good scheme fit or not. Much like a lot of your posts, I'd be happy if this is something Beane chose to do. It's just a matter of not "logically" believing it's something that he would do.

Yeah, there's absolutely no difference between the *GM* of the team, who makes the decisions of a players future, *specifically* talking about the future of a player at a position that is overly crowded and a player with little reason to be traded themselves tweeting out something "cryptic" 🙄

The thing that gets me is the multiple leaps people make. When something is said or tweeted, it's one thing to imply maybe it means something beyond what it most likely is. But then they leap again to it means a trade is likely or possible based on the unlikely conclusion they've already jumped to.

That's pretty much it. Furthermore, the walking emoji is explained when you check his IG story. He posted it yesterday when he was literally walking for 5 miles. He's probably doing more of that today, leading to inner reflection. Ain't no way we're adding LT to our list of needs right now in the shape we're in and COMPLETELY overhauling the OL that Beane raved about from last year.

Just like most "cryptic tweets" that get made a big deal out of - my guess is it's nothing. This is probably just him in shock after seeing long time teammates Morse, Tre, and Poyer being cut. Contemplating if the same could happen to him one day and hoping it doesn't.

11 Picks so far. We could use a 3rd after getting screwed by the league. But I don't know if I agree that if Thomas is gone we should Trade Down or wait until Round 2 on WR. I think if Mitchell is on the board, we should pull the trigger. I worry about Worthy's fit, but being the fastest player ever recorded has me a little more liberal with giving him a chance. And I know you aren't as high on Legette as me, but from an athlete standpoint - he feels like exactly what we'd be looking for. Personally after Mitchell and Legette are gone, I feel like the next tier of guys aren't great fits. McConkey, Pearsall, Corley, McMillan, and R. Wilson are all either Slots or not True Outside WR's imo. Franklin and Coleman have things about them that really bother me and were highlighted at the Combine. If you wait until 60, who knows what's left. If you trade down, you could miss out on a guy like Mitchell or Legette that fit what I think we're looking for. I don't see it the same that after Thomas, there isn't that much of a difference on who we take and can afford to wait.

I like the idea of Hollywood Brown. But now after Higgins, Pittman, and Evans are off the board - he's probably in that top tier of WR's left available and will most likely be overpaid. Spotrac estimates him at 15m aav on a 4 year 60m dollar deal. I like him, but I don't like him that much. A little too injury prone for that kind of contract. Really big on Noah Brown. I think he fits perfectly as a guy who could provide a very solid option in a Reserve role or put us in decent shape if our Rookie takes a little while to get his sea legs under him and will be in our price range.

This is essentially it. You can say in a vacuum that Derrick Henry would be awesome as part of a 1-2 punch with Cook. And of course he would. But when it comes to us landing him, the logic falls apart. Baltimore has already pursued him, made it further in the Playoffs than we did, they have nothing at RB and he can continue to be who he was in Tennessee, and they have more money than us. Houston, another team that made it as far into the Playoffs as we did, has an opening at Starter, and more money. He bought a home in Dallas. Dallas also is in need of a Starting RB, was also the #2 Seed in the Playoffs on the NFC side, and has more money than us. The idea that he has to accept less and a reduced role to play with a competitor like us is incorrect. He can have his cake and eat it too with other teams. And he will. And that doesn't even take into account our side. We only were willing to pay 1.7m for RB2 last season when we were in (slightly) better shape financially and RB1 was a much bigger question mark. There's a reason why when they list the Vegas odds for Henry - we aren't on it.