BillsFanForever19

Yeah, whatever it was. There's so much unrealism here. First of all, this years 1st and next year's 1st is nowhere near enough to go from 28 to 9. Then, somehow we've given up 28 to get 9, but still have 60 and have acquired 45 somehow.... like, what? Then Nabers falls to 9 - unlikely. And having given up next year's 1st and getting Nabers, we select ANOTHER WR at 45? Simply madness.

We don't have to replace Diggs this year. You take a mid rounder and hope it hits with a year of development in conjunction with your 1st. Also Justin Shorter, who will have a red shirt year and a 1st year of development. One of those guys could be his replacement without giving up 60. And if neither looks like a Starter in Year 2, then you Draft another guy or sign someone - as 2025's cap is actually 25m in the green ATM. You also don't want to count Diggs completely out at this point. What if having an ACTUAL WR opposite him takes away some coverage and he has his best season ever? Then we've spent a 2nd Round Pick on a guy for a role that doesn't even exist for another year at least. And with Worthy, again, I don't see a full time Outside guy. He's, at best, a jack of all trades gadget type that you have to be creative with. He's not replacing Diggs full time on the Outside IMO. And with Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid (a TE as much as Von Miller's a LB), we have not one, but two top end Slots on the roster for the next 2 years at least. Get the most important thing we need this year. Which is a true Outside WR with our highest pick. But like it or not, we don't have a choice but to address the MASSIVE amount of holes we have Defensively with Draft picks. And we can't afford to wait until Round 3 at the earliest for multiple guys we'll need to start. You can't be in a situation where you're starting 4th Rounders. Even starting 3rd Rounders is a scary proposition. Then you can come back to WR in Round 4, or maybe even package a 4th and a 5th to get into the bottom of Round 3. But Round 1 AND Round 2 is out. Y'all can mock it to your hearts content and argue why it should be done. It's not going to happen. Especially when you consider it's likely we'll have to trade up at least a couple picks to secure the guy we want in Round 1.

Actually, it was a FOUR year deal - not two. We still have dead cap hits for Leonard Floyd in 2025 and 2026.

This is exactly what I've been talking about about with some of you posters swinging the pendulum way too far in the other direction. You cannot say "screw it - put anyone back there". A spot here or there, okay. We can cover up for it. But we need: Starting DE Starting DT Starting SS Starting FS #3 DT (Rotationally gets a LARGE snap count) And that's not counting needing 2 other DE's, 2 other DT's, a LB, and another Safety. The odds that we'll be able to fill all 5 of those major holes in FA with amount of cap space we have is slim. There are less than 1 Round worth of players who are considered a starter in every Draft. By putting out a 2nd and 3rd Round Pick and expecting them to start - you ARE allocating minimum assets to the Defense already. Guys available in Round 3 and especially after are there because they aren't Starters in Year 1. In allocating our 1st Round to our most important hole and then doubling back in later rounds to provide insurance, we ARE focusing and favoring that over Defense. You sound like you're saying "hey, 3-4 years ago we focused too much on Defense and it didn't get us over the top. So now we need to neglect there and focus on Offense completely". That glosses over the fact that what you're upset about us doing and not working - many of them are gone already or will be gone this offseason. You can't say "oh well, that didn't work, so now that those guys need to be replaced, replace them with anybody. It doesn't matter" Rather than replace them with 1st Round picks or high priced contracts, like I said, I am advocating waiting until Day 2 and getting bargain guys. I am advocating putting our highest asset and another pick into WR. But to say we allocate even less than 2nd Day picks and bargain FA's on the Defense is insane. And as for the notion that we spend all of our assets on Defense and completely neglect the Offense - even that logic is flawed. This year we'll spend our 1st on a Starting WR. Even if we spend our 2nd on a Starting player on Defense, that would put the score at 4-2 in favor of Offense over the past 3 Drafts in Rounds 1 and 2: 2024 - 1st Round WR, 2nd Round Defensive Player 2023 - Dalton Kincaid (TE Round 1), O'Cyrus Torrence (OG Round 2) 2022 - Kaiir Elam (CB Round 1), James Cook (RB Round 2) That's 2 1sts on Offense to 1 on Defense. 2 2nds on Offense to 1 on Defense. I'm sure you'll say "But Von Miler!". Yes, we spent a lot on Von Miller. We typically do 1 splash move every few years or so. What was our last splash move before Von Miller? Stefon Diggs on Offense. We saw what happened when we put up a mash unit against Mahomes. The idea that we can afford to put less out there than what we have already and it won't matter is really basic thinking. The reality is that if we say "screw the holes" on Defense and put out even less talent, he's going to light us up even more. So great, Josh has more help. But guess what? Now he'll have to put up even more points to stay with him and even more points still to get ahead of him. There's also this logic that KC wins just because they have Mahomes and Kelce and Defense doesn't matter in this league. This year we saw more than ever that they also field a very good Defense with All Pro players that keep him in the game to make those game winning drives. Without Jones, McDuffie, Snead, Gay, and Karlaftis - KC wouldn't have hoisted the Lombardi this year. If you think us loading up on Offense and then downgrading our Defense even more than we will be already is going to take us over the top of their complete team - I've got a bridge to sell you. We have to do both, which is what I'm advocating for. Sooooo..... TL;DR - You can allocate Round 1 into WR and pick up another on Day 3 AND field a competent Defense by allocating Day 2 Picks there at the same time. And with the state of the Roster and our cap situation, we really don't have a choice. The idea that Beane will say "screw the holes" and that needing Starters on Defense is "a joke" is the real joke here.

I think it's the other way around. On the boundary, he's going to get absolutely bullied by bigger CB's who are going to jam him and use their length at the line of scrimmage. There's a reason smaller WR's are used in the slot. They're lined up against usually smaller, weaker CB's and can work the middle of the field. Once they get 5 yards past, they can't be touched until the ball is in their hands anyways. And at that point, they're often being covered by LB's or S's - which are a mismatch for smaller, faster WR's. You mention John Brown as an example. But he was someone taken in Round 3 that had to prove it before he was trusted there. In Round 1, we need to know they can handle it - not just hope they can. To be fair, it wasn't just Worthy that led to me thumbs downing your last two posts. It was alleging we drafted Shorter to replace Gabe Davis in the WR2 spot for this season, when he was a redshirted in his Rookie year and never saw the field in the Regular Season, in your first post and saying you don't see Worthy as a slot at all, when he played almost half of his snaps last year in the slot, in your second post. I've got a number of problems with this. 1.) I don't see any way Worthy is on the board at 60. 2.) With the amount of holes we have on the Defense, we can't afford to not address any other position but WR until Round 3. 3.) We already have Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Deonte Harty (starting to think it's more likely he takes a pay cut than is outright cut) in the slot. So not only are you spending a premium asset on a guy who won't be getting very many reps behind Diggs, Franklin, Shakir, and Kincaid - but you'll have to take one of those guys off the field to put him on. I guess if he's the first guy up at the Slot and Boundary being mixed in when anyone needs a breather, he'll get more reps than say Sherfield or Harty got. But I still don't think that's worth a 2 with the amount of starters we have to replace and the small amount of cap space we'll have to fill those holes. I maintain that we don't go back to WR until Round 4. At best, we trade up from 4 to the bottom of the 3rd after using our 2nd and 3rd elsewhere. But no way do I see us going back to back in Round 1 and Round 2 at WR. If Diggs leaves next year, hopefully either the Round 4 player and/or Justin Shorter has developed and we're set already with Franklin and one of them for years to come. If not, you go and get another guy in next year's Draft or sign a guy when we're in much better shape cap wise and hopefully have nowhere near the amount of holes we have this season.

Did everyone in here think we got a Free Agent DE the caliber of Leonard Floyd on a 1 year deal at just a 1.16m salary, a 1.45m signing bonus, and a 2.6m cap hit? Every year people look at our cap situation and say there's things we can do to finesse it and make certain signings happen. And in the moment, they don't care what it takes. "Add void years" is a common refrain amongst posters who want to make a deal happen with someone. But then when we do and those void years come where we're paying for a player who isn't here, now they don't like it. This is why I'm always saying "it's not that simple" when people want to do these things. "Void years" don't void the numbers attached in those years. It's always great in the moment to fit a player in when we don't have room. But the bill always comes due and it's not fun when it does.

4 Rounder - 28. Troy Franklin WR Oregon 60. T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas 99. Javon Bullard S Georgia 129. Brendan Rice WR USC

You don't see him as an NFL slot at all? Because he took 40% of his snaps at the College level last season in the Slot. I'm sorry, but anyone who has that small of a frame and was only split out wide just 60% of the time in College can't be trusted to play exclusively on the boundary in the NFL - which is what we're in the market for. I think Shorter may develop into something, but he's a total Wild Card. There's no way they think he's ready to take over and start full time. And Worthy in the slot would remove Shakir and/or Kincaid from the field. Worthy may be fast, but he's at best a tweener that you have to use creatively. He simply does not check enough of the requisite boxes for the role we're looking for. Worthy fans drool over his highlight videos and ignore everything else. That's not how Beane operates. He'll take the guy who fits all the traits he's looking for and athletic specimens who are sometimes looked at more as work in progresses over simply looking at College highlight reels, every day of the week and twice on Sunday's. I'm practically positive it will be either Thomas Jr, Franklin, Coleman, Mitchell, or Legette. We can still get speed and talent without having to give up size and true X usage and experience at the College level. Even Franklin's a little small. But he still has 2.5-3" and 20 more lbs. on Worthy and was used in the slot only 17% of the time last season - compared to Worthy's 40%

McConkey is 5'11" and runs a 4.59 40. I don't care how he looks on film, those things make him a non-starter in discussion for our next full time X WR.

I am in agreeance that our health was the key factor in us not beating KC in the Playoffs this year. Here's what we were looking at: - Matt Milano gone for the year - Von Miller didn't return REMOTELY to form - Micah Hyde didn't return REMOTELY to form - Tre White done for the year - Christian Benford Out - Gabe Davis Out - Terrel Bernard Out - Tre's replacement Rasul Douglas playing at MAYBE 50% - Jordan Phillips done for the year - Daquan Jones not at 100% from IR - Taylor Rapp Out - Baylon Spector Out On top of these things, we were starting a MLB who was on the couch 3 weeks before, who then rolled his ankle badly during the game and Tyrell Dodson, who entered the game hurt, also went down again to start the game. We had ZERO true Outside WR's opposite Diggs - being forced to put slot guys like Shakir, Sherfield, and Harty on the outside. Amongst all of these things, we still only lost the game against the Super Bowl Champs by 3 points. It's ridiculous to simply boil down all of those things too "injuries happen - find a way". Yes, injuries happen. But that many injuries at key spots is downright impossible to overcome against the best of the best in the NFL. I often say that the difference between winning and losing in the :13 seconds game was not having a healthy Tre White. Competition in the Playoffs is so razor thin amongst the top teams that 1 major player on your team being out can be the difference between winning and losing. And we had MANY key players out. Looking over the myriad of health problems we had, I honestly find it a miracle we were able to do what we did. When we made the Playoffs, and especially after injuries sustained against Miami and Pittsburgh, I thought "this is nice, but this isn't a unit healthy enough to hoist a Lombardi". I honestly feel if we had Milano, Bernard, Benford, Davis (say what you will, but he at the very least took some attention away from Diggs and provided key blocks down field), and either White or Douglas at 100% - we would have won that game and may very well have hoisted a Lombardi. Hell, even if we had only some of that and not all of it - we could have overcome. Here's hoping next season we have better luck with health. Combine that with some key adjustments and I think we have a much better chance than we had this season.

I do see us bringing in FA's on the Defensive side of the ball. But the odds we're going to be able to cover all of the following in FA seems unlikely to me: 1 Starting DE (or at least capable of starting if Von doesn't improve), 1 rotational depth rusher 1 Starting DT, 3 rotational depth lineman (including #3 who will get a LOT of reps) 2 Starting Safeties (as reading between the lines of McDermott and Beane's pressers, it seems likely Poyer and Hyde will both be gone), 1 for depth. We'll take care of a number of them in FA. But all 5 of the important spots (starters at DE, DT, both Safety spots, and 3rd DT) with surefire replacements? I don't see it. We're going to need that 2nd and 3rd to cover a couple of them.

I tend to fall in the middle. I think it's fair to say we have put too many assets into Defense financially and with high Draft picks and that we should focus on WR. But I also see many of these people swinging the pendulum too far in the other direction. Don't spend a 1st or high priced contracts on these replacements at DE, DT, and S. But it's also crazy to say we should devote 2-3 of our first 3 picks on WR, spend money on Offense, and put Day 3 Rookies out as Starters (something you just cannot rely on). Sticking cheap Day 2 inexperienced Rookies out as Starters IS allocating lesser assets on Defense already. To say worry about these things on Day 3 is neglecting that side of the ball too much. Draft a starting WR2 Round 1, double down in Round 4 or 5 for depth and hedging your bet, find a DL starter in Round 2, and a potential starting Safety in Round 3.

Idk. But that's not the point. You say he's affordable. Yeah, he's affordable - after you spend a Draft Pick and after you restructure his deal, pushing money out into further years, and that's not even taking into account the number he's on next year - which is a massive number. The point is the cost in draft compensation, the cost in contract - both in later years for reducing the number this year and for his 17.8m cap hit next year. And in the end, it's still better on Denver's end to cut him than trade him. Beane's not going to do that and I'd be surprised if they trade him instead of cut him anyways. If he's got to give up a pick, he'll just Draft a guy he'll have for 4 years for pennies on the dollar and/or sign a guy on a contract he has complete control over to structure how he sees necessary and doesn't also cost Draft compensation. And if we did make a move for a guy like that, you can say goodbye to also Drafting a guy in Round 1. With the holes we have, we wouldn't give up a 2nd or a 3rd for Sutton and then spend a 1st on a guy who would be just coming off the bench in relief of Diggs and Sutton in Year 1. I can't foresee the future and give you a name. But I do believe if we play it smart and save a little money for later in FA, we can get a bargain on a vet. If we would have not spent what we spent earlier and not signed Floyd at DE - we could have made something like Hopkins happen last offseason. This year, if we sit on some money and wait - I think we can pull off the Floyd situation at WR. Wherein a guy overplayed his hand early in FA, the musical chairs ended and they're left without a team and have to take less, and/or a guy is a surprise cut late after the Draft, like Hopkins was last year.

I just don't see that happening. The Broncos are in rough shape cap wise. They'd save 13.6 cutting him with a 6/1 designation. They'd save 9.7 by trading him. So we'd essentially have to give up something worth them taking on 4m in cap space, when they're in a tough spot. I'm not sure if a Day 3 pick is going to be enough for them to do that. And if I'm spending a Day 2 pick on him and taking on his contract, I'd rather just get a player we'll have for 4 seasons and for a fraction of the price. And then, we may be able to get him down to 3.5 or whatever this year - but what's that going to do later? And what will it cost us to keep him or cut him next year if we do that? He's a 17.8m cap hit next season. Yeah, no. If we're going vet, it'll be someone who won't cost us a pick and will be more affordable.

And a WR who was used way less than 40% of the time in the Slot. Worthy is a tweener and not a true X. I agree that right now, the pick is Thomas Jr., Franklin, or Coleman. And that if we stand pat, it's more likely going to be the 6th WR off the board, not the 4th or 5th - as I see 20 picks between the 3rd coming off the board and 28. And I don't see any way no WR's go in 20 picks and a bit unlikely only 1 is picked in that amount of picks. Though not impossible, I think everyone knows we're picking WR and will attempt to hop 28 to take one.

Obviously, yes. If no one wants to move down, then the point is moot. But the biggest question to me right now is will the 5th WR still be on the board at 24? I'm fairly certain that the top 3 are going in the Top 10 and that the next two will be gone by 28. Maybe we'd have to throw in a 3rd or a 4th next season to sweeten the deal and get a little higher than that? And this is all on the notion that they love Thomas and Franklin. Who knows - maybe they love Coleman just as much. In which case, maybe we don't have to worry about any of this at all. That's where I'm leaning now, yes. We've already seen analysts moving him up the board based on the amount of boxes he checks, some of them double checks. If he tests out very well, as I expect, I think he'll move up even higher. And with the expectation that MHJ, Odunze, and Nabers go in the Top 10 - i'd find it unlikely that just 1 WR goes in the next 18-20 picks. And Franklin is starting to look like the consensus 5th WR off the board. The question to me is - how much higher than 28 is the 5th WR going to go? A couple picks? 4-6 picks? Anything more and they may be too rich for Beane's blood. Though Sal C. is predicting Beane will be a little bolder than his normal 2-3 picks, I don't see anything higher than 5-6 picks.

According to the modern Rich Hill chart, that 4th we paid was worth a little more than the 2 spots we got. 28 is worth 209, our 4th is worth 18, and our first 5th is worth 10 - a total of 237. Dallas' 24th is EXACTLY 237. And adding a 5th is a 3 player for 1 player deal. Making it a package adds to the attractiveness.

You don't have to move the 3rd and I don't think he'll want to do that. We have 10 picks in this Draft. An extra 5th and 2 extra 6ths. Anyone who thinks we'll be drafting a player with every one of those picks is kidding themselves. According to the more modern Draft Trade Chart (https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp) - we can move our 4th and one of our extra 5ths to move up 4 picks to 24. I know Sal is talking more, but I think 4 spots is about the sweet spot for us. Maybe if we threw in a high Day 3 in 2025, we could get to 22 or 23. We'd lose a pick in the 4th. But we'd maintain our 3rd, still have a pick in the 5th, 3 picks in the 6th, and a 7th. And If we really wanted to get back in the bottom 4th, we could move our 5th and one of our 6ths to do that. And then if we wanted to get back into the 5th, we could move our 2 remaining 6's to do that. There's flexibility to do a lot and still have a fairly standard Draft of 6-7 players - while comfortably being able to move around the board a bit.

It's refreshing to see another poster focus on "checking the boxes" of what Beane would look for in an Outside WR. People fall in love with what they watch in highlight videos and ignore that Beane is a guy that focuses more on checking all the boxes and projecting fit over who looks the sexiest on film. He's looking for: Height - Minimum 6'1" - preferably in the 6'3" to 6'5" area Speed - Minimum 4.45-4.50 - preferably in the 4.3-4.4 area. Though a 4.45-4.50 adequately checks the box on a bigger WR. Mass - Minimum 190-195 lbs - preferably over 205 with some muscle mass True Outside WR - The most important trait. No less than 80% of the time on the perimeter. Looking for a guy that has no doubts that we can just stick on the island, as we only have 1 WR that we can do that with (outside of Shorter who is a question mark) and have multiple slots we want to be utilizing there. Interviews well - This is something we won't know until after we've selected our guy. They always put an extreme emphasis on guys who show a Football intelligence on what they do right, what they do wrong, display a good work ethic, display coachability, and how much passion they show for the game. It's frustrating for me to see almost everyone bang the table for Xavier Worthy. He looks like a taller Roscoe Parrish to me. He checks some boxes, but is a negative check on others. At 6'1" he only meets the minimum height for me. He does have great speed. But at 170 lbs - he's *way* too small of a build in mass and muscle. And he only took 60% of his snaps on the Outside. He's not someone I see putting on the island and staying there. Others love Ladd McConkey, but he's 5'11" and runs a 4.6 40. He screams Slot at the Pro Level. Ricky Pearsall, another player mentioned at times, he's a true Slot. I agree that Keon Coleman checks all of the boxes. Unless we move up for Thomas or Franklin, he's starting to look like a very likely pick of we were to stay pat at 28. I see the first 3 going in the first 6-8 picks and it seems unlikely to me that only 1 WR will go in the following 20 or so picks. I also feel that this year people are swayed by the guys at the top. They're comparing everyone else to them and feeling like they fall short of that. Truth is, in other years, some of these guys would go higher and be viewed way differently. At 28 - we're never going to get that Elite across the board talent. Check all the boxes you can, with no net negatives, and hope they develop into even more with good coaching and hard work.

The only way Odunze falls within striking distance of us is if he blows out his knee training or something and will miss the 2024 season. Which would put us out on him anyways.

He reportedly runs a 4.38: https://www.stadiumrant.com/post/the-best-is-yet-to-come-for-adonai-mitchell If he really runs a 4.38 at 6'4" with the things he did at Texas - that's going to be make him a very attractive prospect. Especially if he tests well elsewhere. Beane is big on tools and traits. More on that below... I think you can still get an explosive playmaker with speed without giving up size. You have to keep in mind Beane's MO when drafting in the 1st Round. He always goes for players with a combination of athletic ability and prototypical size for whatever hole he's filling. He'll take a guy who is viewed as more of a developmental project (like Allen, Edmunds, Rousseau, Elam) who has impressive physical traits and tools that he sees translating at the next level with coaching up over some sick College highlights 6 days a week and twice on Sunday's. If we're spending a 1st Round Pick on a WR - they're going to want a playmaker, but also one that has prototypical size for an Outside guy. And even more importantly, they're specifically looking for a guy who will always be on the Outside opposite Diggs. Worthy is a guy who is weighs 170 lbs., isn't short but isn't particularly tall either, and only played 60% of his snaps on the Outside last season. He may be a playmaker, but he doesn't check any other box. And Beane prefers to check them all in early round picks who will be starters. This is why I'm looking at Brian Thomas Jr, Troy Franklin, Keon Coleman, Adonai Mitchell, and Xavier Legette as more likely. They check way more boxes. Maybe he surprises me and takes Worthy. But knowing what Beane is looking for and how he generally operates, I just don't see it.

McConkey reportedly runs a 4.59 40. He may appear to play faster, but that's too slow to be a consideration. Especially with a 5'11" stature. It isn't so much a "want" to trade up, as it is a necessity if he wanted Thomas or Franklin. This was an interesting watch: In it, Joe Buscaglia said "if Brandon Beane is breathing, he's thinking about trading up" 😂 Also, to your point of Beane deciding to stay pat as opposed to other years, Sal brought up a counter point. One in which his trade up in both 2022 and 2023 were a result of him missing out on who he really wanted at CB and WR. He predicts this year, rather than staying pat and making a small move, he'll make a bigger move up the board (more like 5-10 picks instead of 2-3) to ensure he gets who he truly wants this time. Right now, the list of people I think he would consider taking would be: Brian Thomas Jr - LSU Troy Franklin - Oregon Adonai Mitchell - Texas Keon Coleman - Florida State Xavier Legette - South Carolina Though I haven't yet fully dug into everyone - I have eliminated Xavier Worthy and Ladd McConkey as fits, IMO.

McConkey to me doesn't have the adequate size or speed. He screams Slot at the next level, even though he was used less there last season than the season before. He's really small at 5'11" and is more quick than fast, timing out at about 4.6. We'll be looking at guys with height, mass, speed, and is without a doubt a true Outside WR. McConkey doesn't come remotely close to checking enough of those boxes.

The more I look at things, the more I seem to think it's very unlikely either Thomas or Franklin are sitting there at 28. It's going to require a move up for either of them. If one is on the board come pick 21 or 22, I almost expect he will strike to secure one. I don't see it as likely he just stands pat and hopes his guy falls to him. Even if he does fall in love with someone like Mitchell or Legette from that next tier, I don't see him letting someone like KC possibly hop ahead of him and steal them. Unless he loves them both and is willing to take one or the other and neither goes before 27.

Yeah, I tend to agree. The more I look at it, I feel like Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze are all coming off the board before Pick 10. The odds that only 1 other WR is taken in the next 20 picks or so seems like a Pipe Dream. I do think Beane does move up this year a little higher than usual. But even then, I see it being more like 5-8 picks instead of the normal 2-3. Will it be enough to land the 5th WR on the board? Here's hoping. Ah, okay. Yeah, a guy with only 1 year of production and being a bit older of a prospect would turn people off. I agree, I still like what I saw. I don't know, I'm out on Worthy. I really think we need a big body amongst our core and he just doesn't fit the bill to me. He's at my minimum for height and way below what I'm looking for in a frame. And his college usage doesn't fit the bill for me either. To me, it would easily be Mitchell if it's a Texas WR. 3" taller and 20+ pounds more in mass. Nabers isn't happening. While I expect a Trade Up, we won't give up what it would cost to get that high. And the likelihood that someone would want to drop 20+ picks is slim to none even if we were inclined to give that much up. A move up for Thomas represents the absolute most that we would do. And if the first 3 are gone by Pick 8, like I expect, and Thomas is the next WR to come off the board - even that seems unlikely to me. Save for an unexpected fall and/or someone like Franklin hopping him. WR5 is where we're realistically looking.