BillsFanForever19

I maintain that when it comes to non-cap guarantees, fans like to look at it that it doesn't matter. It's just ignored. It does matter. Cap hit or not, 18.5 million dollars is still 18.5 million dollars. And that is guaranteed to him on 3/17. Teams don't pay a player that much money, cap or no cap, to not be there. Save for some multi 1st Round QB Trade or something.

Not to mention Dalton Kincaid works out of the Slot. As I said in the Malachi Corley Steve Smith breakdown video I posted, anyone who has a high percentage slot usage and will be a Day 1 or Day 2 pick is crossed off the list for me.

1,267 snaps in the Slot to 105 snaps Outside Malachi Corley as great as he is, is a True Slot. With Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid in the slot and the range of where he'll be taken, he's out for us IMO.

Yeah, the more I've been diving into these guys - the more I'm feeling like we can probably sit pat at 28. I've got 4 guys after the Big 3 go i'd be thrilled with. I wouldn't worry about it unless that 6th one comes off multiple picks ahead of us.

Mel Kiper's Top 10 WR's Big Board https://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/insider/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/38381720/2024-nfl-draft-rankings-mel-kiper-big-board-top-prospects-position-best-players 1. Marvin Harrison Jr. 2. Rome Odunze 3. Malik Nabers 4. Brian Thomas Jr. 5. Ladd McConkey 6. Keon Coleman 7. Xavier Worthy 8. Adonai Mitchell 9. Malachi Corley 10. Xavier Legette Troy Franklin doesn't even make his Top 10 list. Wild. McConkey is way too high for his size and (lack of) speed. Legette is too low IMO.

Agreed. But I don't think he is going to be a sleeper pick after the Combine and his Pro Day. His blend of size, muscle, and elite speed will have him being a surefire 1st Round Pick come Draft day IMO - if he isn't already in league circles. It wouldn't shock me in the least if he were to hop Brian Thomas and/or Troy Franklin as the 4th or 5th WR off the board when everything is said and done. You don't find that kind of speed on a 6'3" 227 lb. Adonis frame everyday. And Beane's the type of guy to value traits like that over stars and highlights (and his aren't bad to begin with).

Steve Smith was NOT kind to Walker. Said he needs to learn to catch, should have stayed in school and that people he's talked to have said the same, that his stock is dropping hard, and he's a Day 3 guy.

There's just SO many in this class, it's hard to keep track of them all.

I'm against doubling down in Round 2. There's too many things we need to do and not enough money to do it in FA. We need to get another Starter in Round 2, maybe even in Round 3 too before we start looking at our 4th WR. I think the 2022 model of what Beane did with CB is more likely. He took Elam Round 1 and then took Benford in Round 6. I'd go a little higher with our double dip at WR. But I don't expect him to go again until Round 4. Maybe a trade up from Round 4 into the bottom of Round 3 or top of Round 4 with the amount of Day 3 picks we have. I'm also notoriously anti-Worthy. Worthy's too small of a body and has too much slot usage. I see him as more of a gadget player you have to put all over the field. We already have two guys in Shakir and Kincaid that I always want on the field in the Slot. And as Smith said, a body catcher. What I see Beane wanting for a True Outside WR2 (that will be our #1 one day), Worthy doesn't fit that bill or check enough boxes IMO. Wilson is really big. But that's it. As Smith said, the guy can't chew gum and tie his shoes at the same time. Someone will take him for his size, but I'm not impressed by him either. I like Polk and Rice. But I don't think they'll be there by the time we want to Double down. Maybe Rice. If Polk is there by the time our 3rd rolls around, you have to really consider it. But I doubt he will be.

Right now, he may very well be my favorite of the class outside of the 3 that will be long gone. I'm more and more confident with each passing day that our guy is one of either Brian Thomas Jr., Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, or Keon Coleman.

Yeah, I'm really high on Legette. Just passes the eye test on everything i'm looking for. Height, elite speed, muscle, good hands. Knock on him are his age (just turned 23 a few weeks ago) and 1 year of production. I don't think the 1 year scares Beane off. He likes guys who look good and are still a work in progress. Reminds me of Rousseau and his 1 year of production. I see him as a guy that is going to sky rocket up the Draft boards once he has his Combine and Pro Day and will be in discussion for WR4 or WR5. I don't see him escaping Round 1 and could very well be our guy.

Was just about to post this. Some cliff notes: - Adonai Mitchell: "Folks not gonna like it, but I'm gonna tell you right now.... 90% Body Catcher. You can get mad at me for saying it, I'm just telling you what my eyes can see" - Xavier Legette: "My comp right now, wanna know who he reminds me of? DK Metcalf... slightly better" - Xavier Worthy: "He's a Body Catcher. After Thanksgiving dinner, he's 172 lbs. Wanna know who my comp is? Taller version of Tank Dell" - Ja'lynn Polk - "Here's what he is to me, he's a DOG. Dog mentality. He's a dog with damn rabies. He's got some dog in him that you just don't see. Foaming at the mouth" - Brian Thomas Jr. - "He's growing on me. I gotta watch some more film on him" - Malachi Corley: "Man, I'm gonna tell you right now, going on record TODAY, the kid from Western Kentucky - Malachi Corley IS my steal of the Draft. He's not only the best player on his team, he IS the team. He's got that dog in him too. He's going to have to learn to put the ball in both hands. He only puts it in one hand" - Troy Franklin: "Kinda reminds me of Jordan Addison. That's my comp" - Johnny Wilson: "6'7" 237 lbs - he is not a good multitasker. That boy can't chew gum and tie his shoes at the same time. You hear this about a lot of people, "he's a freak".... maybe at night, but it ain't on the Football field. I'm just telling ya" - Brendan Rice: "He is Isaiah Pacheco. He runs his routes harder than anyone known to mankind. I was watching his film and my daughter walked back and said "why's he running so hard?". He looks like he's gonna get a crick in his neck, that's how hard he runs" - Devontez Walker: "He needs to focus on catching the ball a little bit better. I think he should have went back to College. I think he came out too early and his Draft stock is dropping as we speak. I'm talking right now and his Draft stock is dropping. I was talking to some guys and they said he should have went back to College. He's going to be a Day 3 pick"

Back to Back WR's? McConkey and Wilson?

Anything is possible. It's physically possible someone offers us 7 1st Round Picks for Josh Allen. But the thing that has me riled up about Diggs is post after post after post around here, often from the same people, talking about it like it's extremely realistic - when it's simply not. I'm guilty of being annoyed by unrealistic talk and wanting to stay grounded in Offseason talk. In the shape we're in this season, financially and roster wise, it makes no sense to move him. If, as you say, there's no difference in saving between moving him later this offseason and moving him next offseason - what sense does it make to not have him here this year after we pay him 18.5m guaranteed vs. having him, moving on from him next year before more guarantees come in, and saving the same amount? Especially when we'll be replacing half of the WR core as is? Why would we choose to replace not 1, but both starters and create a scenario where Josh has just 1 WR on the roster (Shakir) that he's ever thrown a pass to - and hand over 18.5m in guarantees to do so?

I don't have to worry about that. Some of the many things that you've posted about that had no chance of happening and didn't happen made more sense than this does. What are you going to say when he's here and especially if he has a great year for us? After you've spent the entire offseason arguing why he shouldn't be here and salivating over the idea of moving him in post after post?

I'm in the same boat. I need to get better about it, honestly. It makes my blood boil and feel like i'm on crazy pills reading it. But ultimately, it doesn't matter. They can talk about it all they want. It's not going to happen. They're (oddly) just fantasizing and talking about something that only exists in their own heads.

Listen, I know the only thing people care about around here is the Cap figures. No other money matters. But if you think Brandon Beane is going to approach Pegula and say "hey, give me a check for 18.5m dollars so that I can give it to someone who won't be here and then I can spend 19m more of your money" - I've got a bridge to sell you. And there is a difference. We can pay 18.5m in cash this year and save 19m - or we can save that same amount next year before his salary becomes guaranteed.

So you're saying we'd pay 18.5m in cash and save 19 in cap on a 6/1?

I'll keep it 100 here with you. When it comes to intricacies of contracts, dead cap hits, cap hits - I'm not a capologist. I just go off what I'm told. Everyone has said next year is the earliest we should be looking at moving on from Diggs. That it's way better for us with his contract to do it then, then now. Posters will tweak numbers to a point that make their narrative work and swear it's the best to do it now. But I've heard no one besides people on this board say it makes any sense. Regardless, if we are to do it, we wouldn't wait until after his 18.5m salary becomes fully guaranteed.

3/17 is when Stefon Diggs 18.5m salary becomes fully guaranteed and it can't come soon enough for me.

Oh joy! This thread is back. He's not going anywhere this season. After 2024 - it's an option. It would cost us extra money and less in compensation to do it this year. We're not going to bite off our nose to spite our face when we can just wait a year. Especially in a year where we have to replace upwards of half of our WR core already and are so far in the red. We're approximately 54m over this year. Next year, we're 26.6m under the cap. We'll Draft a guy this year in Round 1. He'll take some coverage and pressure away from Diggs. Which will allow him to play more like himself and not get as burned to the wick as quickly. We'll probably double dip in the later rounds to provide insurance ala Elam and Benford in 2022. Let those guys get a year of experience under them and groom them under an all time great. Then, if those guys take off immediately, we can move Diggs' contract if we feel we no longer need him. It will cost us less, the opposing team won't have as much to take on which will yield us more in a trade, and we'll be in a better shape capwise, and hopefully roster wise, that it won't hurt us nearly as much.

It IS a different situation entirely. Tyreek Hill was on the last year of his deal and the Chiefs and he couldn't come to an agreement on an extension and he was going to leave at the end of the year. He's not going anywhere this season. Next season, maybe. We're not going to take less in compensation and cost ourselves more cap to move him this year when we're at our tightest. Especially not when we have to replace upwards of half of our WR core as is. The "when there's smoke there's fire" you keep clinging to for some odd reason was in reference to everyone ELSE talking about it and him wondering if maybe Beane's thinking about it. Not that he's pushing for it. And trust me, Beane's not thinking about it. And that completely ignores him saying he doesn't want to go anywhere and hopes he retires here. At most, Diggs wanted to get people talking about him in the Offseason. Something he does quite often. We don't want to move him. He doesn't want to go. And I said team's fanbases. Not teams. Teams aren't going to take on that contract and give us remotely what you think they would . Here's an interview he did with Yahoo! Sports that I found interesting. Namely in that he discusses why he "fell off" a bit down the stretch. The main reason I share this is because this guy has a relationship with him and talks to him every year. In his appearance on OBL, he discussed how this year he seemed to be in a much better place than he was last year. Tasker commented that he seems ready to roll it back this year: This narrative that he wants out or that he'll possibly be moved is COMPLETELY fan made or from click bait media. The only people that talk about it like it's a thing are fans that don't like him personally and want to MAKE it a thing, some media outlets that know he's a Superstar that will get them attention, and your trade posts bc you're obsessed with this years College crop. Ignoring everything else that's been said and his overall demeanor and focusing on a line here or two out of context. No "remains to be seen". He's going nowhere. I agree to an extent. If we had saved some money and not signed Leonard Floyd instead, we could have made Hopkins happen last year. That's why I propose we sit on some money and we wait this year. Getting someone like Mike Evans is impossible. We won't have the money to throw that kind of deal around this year, regardless of how you structure it. But if we wait, a decent vet WR will either end up without a chair (possibly for overplaying their hand) at the end of FA or will be released post-Draft when no one would trade for them, like Hopkins was last year. This will make them have to accept less as everyone has spent their money and filled their spots. We can't afford an Evans type early. But if we're patient, who knows, maybe someone like Hopkins does become available again and we can afford him this time.

You like to act as if our cupboard is completely bare. We already DO have some quality dynamic WR's. We do need a true starter to replace to Gabe Davis. Which will be MASSIVE as, between injury and a recurrence of his bad hands, it made him a complete non-factor since before the mid-season point. Which is a MAJOR contributor as to why Diggs fell off a bit down the stretch. We had LITERALLY nothing on the other X position taking coverage away from him. Teams could afford to roll even more coverage over to him than they usually do without an ounce of worry. In Diggs is a TRUE Top NFL #1. A guy who even after falling off due to the disappearance of Gabe Davis and WR2 and a change in Coordinator and philosophy that had game planning focused on going to the uncovered guy at all times - still was #7 in the NFL in Receptions and a first selection Pro Bowler. He's been an All Pro for 2 of his 4 seasons here. A Pro Bowler in all 4 seasons. A guy who halfway through the season was statistically Top 5. It's insane to think because of one drop and less than a half of season of a drop off has gone from Elite Top 5 to completely toast. With someone else added, I have no doubt he'll be the same great player he's always been this season. And no matter how hard you (confusingly) want to make it seem as if he doesn't want to be here, there's a chance Beane will trade him, or that he's done - none of that is true. He's not going anywhere. And you shouldn't want him to go. While you're trying to move him out, every fanbase in the league that needs a WR is stupidly salivating at the idea of adding him, even though it'll never happen. Khalil Shakir is entering Year 3 and has gotten better with each year. We didn't realize what we had in him fully until about 3/4 of the way through the year. This season he will be game planned to see even more usage and there's no saying he won't be even better than he was last season. Dalton Kincaid is a TE in name only. He's a Slot WR. And as a Rookie, he exceeded my expectations in Year 1. Much like Shakir, as good as he looked last year, there's room for growth and will surely also be utilized more. So while we do need to Draft a guy to replace Davis, the idea that we need a complete overhaul is simply not true. Situations like taking a guy in Round 1 and trading for a guy like Sutton AND doubling up in Round 2 is absolutely not going to happen. I see it like this as far as the most you can hope for (and even this might be too much for Beane to realistically do with what we have in house): 1.) We take a guy like Brian Thomas Jr., Troy Franklin, Keon Coleman, Adonai Mitchell, or Xavier Legette in Round 1. Thomas or Franklin will probably require a small trade up. 2.) After securing starters at either DT, DE, FS, or SS with the next two picks - we move our 4th and our extra 5th to slide into the bottom of Round 3 or the top of Round 4 to get another guy we like. 3.) Late into the Offseason, after sitting on some money, we get a vet that was a surprise post-Draft cut that couldn't be traded or a guy that is still sitting on the market bc he asked for too much. Someone who has no choice but to accept less. Making our WR core for next season: Stefon Diggs (Round 1 WR) Khalil Shakir (Unknown Vet late in FA) (Late Round 3 or Early Round 4 WR) Justin Shorter

Yeah, whatever it was. There's so much unrealism here. First of all, this years 1st and next year's 1st is nowhere near enough to go from 28 to 9. Then, somehow we've given up 28 to get 9, but still have 60 and have acquired 45 somehow.... like, what? Then Nabers falls to 9 - unlikely. And having given up next year's 1st and getting Nabers, we select ANOTHER WR at 45? Simply madness.