BillsFanForever19

He's going to get extended or Franchised. In the SLIM scenario he doesn't, he's estimated on a 4 year - 90m dollar deal, 22.7m per annually by Spotrac. And with Higgins being Franchised and the rise in Salary Cap, I can easily see it being more than that. There's no way to structure that, even with a smaller hit in Year 1, to make it work in the situation we're in.

Pearsall is a True Slot. So are you taking Shakir or Kincaid off the field to put him on? 3rd Slot isn't what I'm looking for in a Round 4 Double Dip. At most it would be a Tweener type that does a little of both. Not a guy who works exclusively there.

Both of these would be kind of surprising to me, at this stage. In listening to Beane on OneBillsLive, it sounded to me that he was saying Jones wanted to see his market before re-signing. Though it is possible that his agent tested the waters over the past 24 hours at the Combine. As for Edwards, in the position we're in cap wise and with McGovern and Torrence definitely starting, and Ryan Bates and Alec Anderson behind them - Edwards is a bit of a luxury to me. And with the Guard position being what it is in the NFL, he might be able to find a Starting gig. Also surprising to me that we'd be taking on the cap hits for both of them before we've dug ourselves out of the hole we're in. But I guess we'll see. EDIT: You're still following and giving credence to ErieCountyBulls after all their "sources" got wrong last year? Good Lord man. I see they changed their name so that they can try and dupe people all over again into believing they're legit.

The philosophical difference between you and me is that your posts are based solely on what you'd like and what you would do (even if it's downright impossible). My posts are based more on what I think Beane would do, based on his words and track record of addressing needs via the Draft and Free Agency and how he manages the cap. In 2022, we were in a similar position at CB that we are at WR. And we were in a better position cap wise and roster wise than we are this year. He took Elam in Round 1 and for the double dip, he waited until Round 6 with Benford. On the flip side in your favor, he did take Greg Rousseau in Round 1 and then took Boogie Basham in Round 2 in 2021. But the difference between that season, what we did in 2022, and this season is that we had decent cap space and spent a lot of money that year filling all of our other holes to a point where we could afford to do that. I'm not a guy who thinks we should go DL in Round 1 like many others. But I also simply don't see a scenario where he spends 28 and 60 on one single position this season. Especially in a scenario where he's giving up picks in Rounds 3 or 4 to trade up to address that position already. See, I knew you were going to do this. Hear that and ignore everything else. I'll have to wait and see the full Presser for the whole context and quote. But much like McDermott, I'd imagine he's replying to a specific question about it from Sal and not just going off about it himself. I'm POSITIVE if he was asked what he's looking for in a WR and not just "are you looking for explosiveness" - you wouldn't hear him say "just explosiveness - that's it. I don't care about anything else". Beane ALWAYS takes guys who are athletic specimens and checks not just one box he's looking for, but as close to all of them as he can. He'll even take guys who are considered more developmental projects (like Edmunds, Elam, Rousseau) that have great size and/or measurements and he sees fitting what he looks for in the position before taking guys who have better college tape. You don't have to hear him say what he's looking for to replace Gabe Davis to know what he's looking for. Yes, he is looking for speed and explosiveness. But if they don't have the adequate measurements or don't have the adequate usage and application in College to fit the role - it doesn't matter. And Worthy, as fun as he looks (btw how much of the highlight reel that you're drooling over with him is Special Teams?) - does not check enough other boxes to fit WR2, possible future #1. He's a gadget type playmaker that doesn't have close to full time Outside usage. That's what we're looking for exclusively. Not a guy that we'd have to remove Shakir or Kincaid from the field close to half of the time. If Worthy had more usage on the outside and had better size, it wouldn't be a question. He'd be up there with Thomas Jr. There's a reason he's looked at as a mid to late 2nd Round guy. And those reasons disqualify him in my eyes as a potential WR2 for a Brandon Beane led office.

If we were to get another true Outside WR that we could trust, maybe he'd be more of a consideration for me. But that's the crux of the issue. I don't see Beane taking a WR in Round 1 or Round 2 that we have to get creative with. And I don't see us double dipping in Round 1 AND Round 2. Too many holes to fill on the roster and not enough money to do it with. And if we have to trade up for Thomas (which is likely) we're DEFINITELY not going back to back in Round 1 and Round 2. We're not waiting until Round 4 to address every other position but WR. Beane's looking for a sure fire, stick on the boundary pretty much exclusively and call it a day type. We're looking for a guy to replace Gabe Davis. Not a guy that we have to remove Kincaid or Shakir from the field to get him out there close to half of the time. If Worthy were available in late Round 3 or 4 and we were able to snag a guy like Thomas, Franklin, Legette, or Coleman to cover WR2 without trading up - sure. Pull the trigger. But that won't be an option. You can get a guy like Thomas, Franklin, or Legette that can give you speed and explosiveness without being a projection as a full time Island guy or giving up height and/or physical build. Hell, Franklin takes some flack for being too small for the Outside. And even he has 20+ pounds on Worthy, 2 inches in height, much more outside usage, and only gives up .05 on the 40.

Only 60% Outside last season. He's not a TRUE Slot like Corley, but he's not a true Outside guy either - which is what we're in the market for. He's someone who you need to put all over the place between Slot, Outside, and Return. Not a guy that you stick on the Outside and call it a day, which is what we're looking for - with a hole there and Slot covered by Shakir and Kincaid (one would have to come off the field for Worthy there) and Return covered by Harty and/or Hines (at least one will be here) Combine that with the fact that, as Steve Smith put it, "he's 170 lbs after eating Thanksgiving dinner" and has adequate, but not great height - he just doesn't check nearly enough of the "boxes" for Davis' replacement. And Beane is a boxes guy. Yes, he wants explosiveness. But as I was saying, don't take that as him saying it's the ONLY thing that matters. We can get speed and explosiveness in guys who are taller and/or more physically built and more importantly than that - true Outside WR's and not a swiss army knife, Jack of all trades - master of none type.

If we go DL Round 1, which would be a surprise to me, I don't think we'll sit pat at 60. We'd trade up for a guy who's left on the board after Round 1. Outside of the first 3 guys who DEF won't be available to us, I have it as Thomas Jr., Legette (I'm higher on him than most), Franklin, Coleman, and Mitchell in that order. I expect 2-3 of those 5 guys to come off the board by the end of Round 1, Thomas Jr. definitely. It gets a little muddy after that. Hopefully some guys that I don't think fit us like McConkey, Worthy, and Corley also go before some of the other guys on the list. So, yeah, if we did go DL Round 1, which again I don't see happening (we can get quality DL help much easier in FA than we can get at WR) - we'd be playing the "who's left?" game and trading up from 60 to grab them.

I don't even see him as an option for 60. We're not taking another Slot that high with Shakir and Kincaid in the fold and a hole on the Outside.

He's a TRUE Slot. He ran pretty much exclusively there. As beaming as Steve Smith was about him, even he said you're not going to turn him from what he's been in College into an Outside guy. We are exclusively looking for an Outside WR to replace Gabe Davis this season and a guy who can develop into our #1 in the Future. We have Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid in the Slot. As I said, taking a Slot guy would remove one of them from the field and still leave us needing to replace Gabe on the Outside. Corley is not an option for us. If he were someone that was available on Day 3, maybe we'd take him if we double dip. But he won't be and we aren't looking at Slots on Day 1 or even Day 2.

Exclusively a Slot WR. We have a couple of them already. We'd be putting Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid on the sidelines to use him and we'd still need to replace Gabe Davis on the Outside. 5'11", 187 lbs. Quicker than truly fast. His most successful vertical routes coming from fades from the Slot position. Out on him also.

I don't doubt they are. But that doesn't mean he's exclusively looking for that and absolutely nothing else matters. Under 6'1", under 190 lbs, and more than 25-30% slot usage is still an eliminator IMO. Yes, we're looking for speed and explosiveness. But we're also looking exclusively for an Outside WR2 with our top pick. Beane is always looking for athletes. But he also looks for a buffet of traits.

Same. In watching what he did in 2021, in his only real season with significant reps Offensively, and with a much lesser QB - I expected him to be a "Diamond in the Rough" for us with Josh. Instead it was only rough.

To be fair, he didn't go out of his way and "specifically reference" it himself. He was specifically *asked* about it. And he replied to it with a kind of a bland, matter of fact manner about Offensive philosophy. Here's the whole question and answer: I got the feeling from your post that he was tipping his hand on what he was specifically looking for and that's not really what I took out of it watching the Presser.

I mean, this is essentially it. The value of the RB position is such that you're probably going to get a much better RB in the late Rounds than you are any of the other positions. The odds of hitting on one of those are probably better than the 45th CB or WR left on the board. And ultimately, we need probably 2 guys. Even a couple million dollars saved on not bringing in another vet RB can be the difference between one type of FA or another at some of the more important positions that we have holes to fill on. If we can do better than Ty Johnson for the price he costs on the one guy I see us bringing in, that's fine by me. But my mindset is 1 Vet Min FA and 1 Late Round Pick.

Welcome to the world of WarriorSpikes51 😆

Well that's really nice of Miami to let us pick a guy we'll use to beat their brains in for the next 5 years at least 😆 I wouldn't hate it. But if we're giving up a 3rd, then we really need to be even more judicious with our spending and make sure we're covering an extra, important hole in FA. I believe with the general devaluing of the position in Drafts, you could find a potential Starter at Safety in Round 3. Or a potential future Starter or at least 3rd DT (which gets a LOT of reps with how often they rotate). And I expected Round 3 to cover one of those. And I'm not sure that would be enough for 21. Even in the more modern Rich Hill model (which is less expensive than the old Jimmy Johnson model and more in line with modern trades) - 28, 99, and 192 isn't even enough for 22: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp Personally, I'm hoping if he's Beane's guy, that he's still there at 24. We can move 28, 129, and 162 for 24 - giving up our 4th and our second 5th and retaining our 3rd.

I'd love Chris Jones too. Or a Trade for Davante Adams. But much like Mike Evans, It's not going to happen. On top of of WR2, we need Starters at DE, DT (of which Ed Oliver is the ONLY DT we have under contract), and Safety (most likely both as it seems reading between the lines of McD's pressers Poyer will prob be cut). Plus a myriad of bodies to fill out the roster with 20+ FA's. We're 37.5m over the cap. Mike Evans estimated contract is a 4 year $100m deal. Even if we push a lot of that contract off, Year 1 is going to cost way too much money for the position we're in. We're going to re-sign some guys and we're going to sign some guys. But we can't afford to pay handsomely for any top FA this season. It's going to be middle tier to bargain guys across the board. Much like last season. That's why everyone's looking at Round 1. WR is one of the most expensive positions in Football. There's a much better chance of getting a real difference maker in Round 1 than from the type of FA that we can afford. We'll still sign someone to go along with them. But it'll be someone more like Noah Brown or Josh Reynolds than Mike Evans.

No one's giving us a 3rd for Elam. Reportedly there were no offers for him beyond a bag of balls at the Deadline. That's why he wasn't moved. An injury riddled last part of the season where we didn't call on him until Douglas AND Benford went down didn't improve matters. I find it highly unlikely that Beane is trading away a next year's 1st for anyone. His 1sts are gold to him. He didn't even trade away the extra 1st he had when we got Josh. The only time he did move a 1st was when Diggs was available and he decided he'd rather him than any WR that would be on the board when we picked that year. Future 1sts factor too much into his plans to replace players he may or may not be able to re-sign. The other problem here is teams don't generally want to move down 20+ picks. Even if the value works, you still have to convince the team to move down THAT far. Very unlikely they'd want to. Most mocks have Nabers going to the Giants at #6. I don't see any way they'd pass on him and give him to us. I don't care what the deal offered is.

He will not. Yes, there will be some at the bottom of the list that will come cheap once the musical chairs stop and they are left still looking for a job. But the guys at the top of the list - Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, and Tony Pollard - those guys are going to get paid to be Starters on other teams. Will it be the money RB's made 5-10 years ago? No. But it won't be "cheap" either.

That's great if you can find Christian Benford with every 6th Round Pick. But for every Christian Benford there's a Marquez Stevenson, Luke Tenuta, Rachad Wildgoose, Jaquan Johnson, or Tanner Vallejo.

Personally, I think using a 6th or 7th IS using less assets than signing multiple vet minimum guys, in the cap situation we're in. Our money should be going towards more important things.

When you made a post that was based in reality, I commended you. It was the first offseason post you made and I thought things would be different this year. Alas, here we are again. Every day littering the board with extreme ideas that have little to no chance of happening and arguing how it's realistic or even "likely". Chris Jones, Derrick Henry, Michael Pittman Jr., Trading Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, Trading for Cortland Sutton, DK Metcalf, Drafting not 1 but 2 WR's in Round 1, etc. etc. For every post of yours that I reply to, you make 3-4 more of the same insane ideas over and over. So if my replying in reality is making you money, hey, maybe I should do it more 😎 As I said in the Cover 1 review, I don't believe that we cannot afford ANYONE. There are members of this board that argue we cannot even afford mid tier FA's. That's incorrect. We will be able to get out from where we are and grab some quality players. But that doesn't include the absolute best, most expensive players at every given position. Your head is in the clouds all the time. Every post is extremes that are, at best, VERY unlikely to happen. Hell, even when we made a somewhat bold move to sign Floyd - your next post was "that's cool - now sign Melvin Ingram AND Justin Houston too!" You post about the Offseason more than maybe anyone on this board. And I love to have meaningful discussion about things we'll do. But with you, it's 24/7 off the wall ideas that don't fall in line with how Beane operates or more importantly, reality.

Here's something people aren't taking into account with this list (that I briefly touched on in my Henry rant) - This many quality RB's on the market means that many teams are in the market to replace them. Henry's leaving the Titans? Well than Tennessee needs to find a replacement. Saquon's leaving the Giants? Then the Giants have to replace him. Some of them will look to the Draft. But for a lot of them, it will just be a game of musical chairs. The market works both ways. A lot of them available doesn't automatically equate to them all coming cheaper. Especially when there's a lot of teams that now have holes.

I feel like there's a new thread on this Documentary every couple weeks.