BillsFanForever19

Hopefully this isn't an indication that he's been told he isn't going anywhere.... https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/maxx-crosby-ive-had-doubts-in-past-but-this-is-the-most-optimistic-ive-been-about-raiders

Yes on the 2026 Draft being when we get compensated for Cooper, but no on a 3rd. As i've mentioned a couple times already and is cited here: https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks "Players who have ten or more accrued seasons may only yield a maximum of a 5th round compensatory pick, even if their actual value would otherwise be assigned higher. However, App. V, §4 revealed that this rule does not apply to quarterbacks." Unforunately, Amari Cooper was in his 10th season in the league when we acquired him and (obviously) isn't a QB. So the ceiling on the pick will be a 5th.

That's not how comp picks work. We lost out on a 3rd last year for two reasons. They changed the formula qualifications to include money in deals that they hadn't before. Before that, teams (like us) would carefully construct contracts with void years and incentives that wouldn't effect the cap number and skirt the formula. So when they changed that on a dime, contracts like we did with Floyd were taken into account more than we expected. The other was that Tremaine Edmunds missed time due to injury. Under the new rules, a 4th is what we were owed. It sucks they changed the qualifications, but they did and we got what we should have under them. We were far from the only team that fell victim to the new rules. As for this year, last years qualifications have been accounted for by prognasticators (and i'd doubt they change them again). It was going to be a 4 for Davis, but will fall to a 5 because of him going on IR at about the halfway mark of the year. Floyd is a 5th. It will be 2 5th's. There's no qualification in the formula for calculating an individual players compensatory worth based on fans perceived slights in previous years. Nope. Any FA that signs this offseason won't be compensated until next season. This year is for last year's Free Agent losses of Gabe Davis and Leonard Floyd. And as I said earlier, veterans with 10 or more seasons accrued qualify for a maximum compensation of a 5th Round Pick. This was Amari Cooper's 10th season, so we can't get any more than a 5 next offseason if we lose him this offseason.

I don't know if you've looked at Tee Higgins' performance over the past couple seasons - but he's been pretty dominant.

You are aware that while you can lower the cap figure of Year 1 with signing bonuses (that you can spread out) - that you can't just make the cap hit 0 or whatever you'd like, right? All 4 of them, even with a lower year 1 number, are going to have substantial hits. You can only lower it to a certain percentage. For example, last year's biggest WR contract was Calvin Ridley. His Year 1 number was about a 3rd of the rest of the years. That number was still 10. And Higgins is going to be a much bigger contract than Ridley. Xavier McKinney was the top contract for a Safety. Again, Year 1 was lower than the following years - it was stil 8 million. Holland is going to be about the same. And that's not taking Garrett or Reed into account. We're at 10+m over right now. We'll come up with space. And we can hopefully do 1 of those big moves. But enough to do all of those? No way. And that's not even taking into account how it would torpedo the cap in future years. Which you can argue he shouldn't worry about - but that's not how Beane operates.

I posted a handful of posts above yours, but this is the definitive look at what we'll be rolling with: Round 1 - Pick 30 Round 2 - Pick 56 (from HOU/MIN for Diggs & 5th) Round 2 - Pick 62 Round 4 (from CHI for 2024 5th) Round 4 Round 5 (Compensatory for Davis) Round 5 (Compensatory for Floyd) Round 6 Round 6 (from NYG for Boogie Basham) Round 6 (from CLE w/Cooper for 2025 3rd)

Correct, it wouldn't come until next year. But we won't get a 3rd or a 4th. The 2024 campaign was his 10th accrued season. And once you've had 10 seasons, your comp pick maxes out at a 5th.

Yes, it was forecasted to be a 4th for Davis and a 5th for Floyd. Unfortunately, Davis was lost for the year a little past midway through the season - so his compensatory will slide to 5. The picks are: Round 1 - Pick 30 Round 2 - Pick 56 (from HOU/MIN for Diggs & 5th) Round 2 - Pick 62 Round 4 (from CHI for 2024 5th) Round 4 Round 5 (Compensatory for Davis) Round 5 (Compensatory for Floyd) Round 6 Round 6 (from NYG for Boogie Basham) Round 6 (from CLE w/Cooper for 2025 3rd)

Boys will come along, a dime by the dozen That ain't nothin' but ten cent lovin' Hey, little thing, let me light your candle 'Cause, Mama, I'm so hard to handle now

My gut instinct is to to thumbs down this post. It's my belief that we didn't have enough firepower on the Outside to go band for band against KC and that's the main reason we lost. On the other hand - it's been reported that Amari Cooper was playing through Wrist injury that required surgery: If that's the case, it would explain why he was used so sparingly. If with surgery and a full offseason with the team, they planned on using him as a full time starter - I'd be open to bringing him back. But only in that situation. If that were the case though and they were running it back with a healthy full time Cooper, they had better do something huge in the Defensive Line and/or the Secondary.

That's pretty obvious. Rasul Douglas and Damar Hamlin are both Free Agents. So we'd need to find a new Starting CB and a new Starting Safety (unless they decide to roll with Cole Bishop). And on the line, Daquan Jones is toast. They need a new 1T. And hopefully an upgrade from Epenesa - preferably Groot moving to his spot for a year with a stud DE in Groot's spot).

Everyone keeps saying Kelce is going to propose to Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl. Personally, I just don't see it. Taylor has made a career on writing breakup songs. I'm honestly shocked they made it this long and part of me believes it's more publicity than anything else. I don't see her marrying and I definitely don't see her as the type that would want to be proposed to on a Football field. I find it more likely that she's already started writing her Travis Kelce breakup album and is waiting on him to screw up or the right time for her to end it.

The increase in cap means nothing. If we were the only team to get it, sure. But everyone's cap increases. And every team has a capologist that figures what that number is going to be in 1 year or 2 years and figures that into their offers. The cap goes up and then so does the price of players. That's how Free Agents get more and more overpaid and we're constantly beating the records for the highest contract given to a player. You're also forgetting the contract we signed Taron Johnson for. He's entering Year 1 of a 3 year, 30.75m contract. So you're talking about signing a guy that Spotrac has a market value of just under 15m a year on top of the 10+m we're paying Taron Johnson and then probably another 15+m into Benford. That's just too much to be spending on the Cornerback position. It would really have to be one or the other and Benford is who we should be focusing on. And as good as Reed is and while we do need a replacement for Douglas, if we were to make a "splash" - I think 90% of fans would prefer that to be a Wide Receiver or an Edge Rusher before a CB.

That's fair. I assumed he meant legitimate buzz. Like reports from legitimate sources that the Seahawks are actually exploring the option or are putting him on the Trade block. As opposed to people talking about it and them saying "thanks but no thanks". You are right. And It's been more than just from Seattle. Like I said, every rumor person in the media and on Twitter have been talking about a potential Metcalf trade for years. It's been a talking point from posters on this board for years. You mentioned the Draft calls that were rebuffed, but even Schefter's addressed Metcalf trade discussion as well going back years: We absolutely should call on him. And if we can get him, we should do everything we can to make it happen. But they always seem to rebuff calls and have never shown an active interest in trading him. So i'll believe it when I see it.

Like the convo of signing or trading for a Premier Pass Rusher with Greg Rousseau's contract approaching, i'd find it hard to believe if we paid the cost that DJ Reed is going to cost that they then would also pay the cost that Christian Benford will cost. In a vacuum, the idea of a Benford and Reed combo in 2025 is appealing. But he's going to cost a LOT of money. And when Benford's contract is up after this season, it will again cost a LOT of money to retain him. I don't see them paying 2 CB's top end Corner money at the same time.

I think what he's saying is it's something that's been discussed by NFL rumor mill clickbaiters and fan sites going on like 4 years now. And when push comes to shove, Seattle never moves him. It was at a fever pitch on Draft Day with Pittsburgh even making an offer. Ultimately, as usual, they decided not to move him. There's logic that with the things you're talking about that this could finally be the year. But people felt that way last year too. And from what it sounds like right now, the Seahawks, with a new Head Coach entering Season 2, don't seem to be looking to rebuild or take a step back this year. They think they can win. And moving Metcalf would be a big step back. Here's hoping they do move him and we are in on it. But when it comes to him, regardless of what clickbaiters put out there, i'll believe it when I see it. I saw a post @Process made asking "what kind of splash moves can be made at WR?". Can't seem to find it beyond quotes (maybe it was deleted). But beyond the discussion of Tee Higgins and DK Metcalf - there's a couple splash WR's that will be available that aren't talked of often. The first being Chris Godwin. He'll be 29 years old and a Free Agent. He is coming off a Broken Ankle sustained in Week 7 which is a concern, but he's expected to be back by Week 1. But he was on an absolute tear before it happened. Putting up 576 yards and 5 TD's in the 6 games before the injury and going over a 1000 yards in 5 of his 6 years before that. Godwin is a stud. The other person is Deebo Samuel. When Brandon Aiyuk signed his massive long term extension, coming off of Christian McCaffrey's massive long term extension, and then Drafting Ricky Pearsall in Round 1 - every San Fran and NFL analyst said it means that this year was Deebo Samuel's last year in San Francisco. It's almost a forgone conclusion he'll be traded this offseason. And I could see his blend of size of versatility as a bruising rusher being something that Beane and McDermott find appealing. https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/deebo-samuel-may-have-played-in-his-final-game-with-the-49ers-01jgqj04d3p7

What I mean when I talk about health affecting pay I mean no Torn ACL's, Torn Achilles, Broken Limbs, or a lot of Concussions. He has never missed serious time or had something happen to him that could effect his play negatively or possibly re-injure going forward.

And in the summer when the clouds show through I might go the same way too if You and I could talk together Well what am I supposed to do with You and I would walk together Then with always close around and Now you gaze toward the doorway When the weather comes falling down And when the rain comes down Would you choose to walk or stay Would you choose to walk Would you choose to stay Would you Walk walk walk walk walk away

True, Sacks don't tell the whole story. But when it comes to your top paid Defensive End it might be the most important chapter in the story. That number you're not willing to reach? That's what it's going to cost. And maybe more. The most expensive traits in Free Agency are youth, starting experience, athletic ability matched with size, and health. If you have those things, even someone who produces at a moderate level goes for way more than they should. Rousseau checks all of those boxes and does so at one of the most expensive positions in Football. If you're going to pay Rousseau the number that his agent will be looking for - we won't be paying for another Defensive End at a high level who can make up for his lack of ability to get to the QB more than 25 times in 4 years and no more than 8 times in any of those 4 years. Right now, we have that situation of Rousseau being our Top Edge Rusher. And it's not enough. People on this board are begging for us to go get Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, (as unlikely as those are) or Khalil Mack and looking at getting to the QB as one of our most important needs. The price tag is what has me out on him. If we could retain him for moderately more than what we're paying AJ Epenesa? Sure. But it's going to be closer to Von Miller and Tremaine Edmunds numbers. And I need serious Sack production and game closing ability for that. If i'm paying the number I'm expecting it to cost, I need more than "he sets a really good edge" or "he's great in run defense to his side". And I shouldn't be thinking "I hope we can afford another DE that can get us double digit sacks" or "I hope we can find a guy in the Draft that's better at getting to the QB than Rousseau". And I do find myself thinking that this offseason.

I doubt that personally. If it came from Beane, I could see it. But I don't think McDermott's the type of guy to feign over a players work ethic, skill, dedication, and perfect mental state like that to talk him up for a trade. Especially for the kind of trade value that a RB would get. He's not that good of an actor. He seemed sincerely impressed. As for the 5 Drafted guys who will be Free Agent's after this year - I put Cook no lower than 3. If I'm only bringing back 3 of the 5, it's Benford, Shakir, and Cook. Rousseau would be tough to let walk. But 25 sacks over 4 years, with 8 being the most he's recorded in one year is simply not enough for me to justify the kind of contract he'll command. I know sacks aren't everything and he does other things very well. But one of the biggest complaints fans have about the team is a lack of pass rush. So I'm having a hard time justifying paying the kind of money it would cost to re-sign a 25 year old Defensive End with his size, athletic ability, and clean bill of health when everyone's screaming for us to get a stud Pass Rusher in here this offseason. Right now, he seems like he'd be a great person to be in Epenesa's spot with a stud Pass Rusher lined up on the Left Tackle. But we're going to have to pay him top Defensive End money and I don't see him as a top Defensive End right now. At the moment, he feels like the Defensive End equivalent of Tremaine Edmunds. And Bernard? He was not the guy we saw last year. He was not popping off the screen nearly as much and he had way more negative plays. It seemed like he was always out of position and was never there when a runner got beyond the line of scrimmage. And he's been dinged up a ton. I'm paying the guys who have been consistently great the past two seasons. And to me, that's Benford, Shakir, and Cook.

I've said this a few times already but I'm in the same boat. I agreed with the line of thought that you don't pay for a Running Back. Just Draft another. But James Cook has changed that for me. The past two seasons, especially this year, he's shown a total package of skills that you're extremely unlikely to replace in the Draft. He's provided us a Running Game that goes beyond what you'd get from the line of thinking that "get a good line and any RB looks great". Speed, elusiveness, shiftiness, power for his size. We've Drafted 4 RB's, signed a number of veterans, and UDFA's since 2017 and no one's given us close to the kind of performance he has. We would have been completely dead in the water if not for him against KC and many believe going away from him at the end of the game may have cost us the game. I'm of the mind that Beane can structure something that kicks the can down the road and can provide us an out after a few years. And beyond me wanting it, I believe this regime wants to do it. Beyond the things his brother has been saying that James has been endorsing regarding an upcoming contract - I don't think I've ever heard Sean McDermott gas up a player like this beyond Josh or Micah Hyde:

At no point did I say we shouldn't Draft a DT or that we shouldn't upgrade the position. I quoted someone who said a stud WR wouldn't make a difference but a Stud DT would and said that's a wild take. And I disagree with it.

If I could turn the page In time then I'd rearrange just a day or two Close my, close my, close my eyes But I couldn't find a way So I'll settle for one day to believe in you Tell me, tell me, tell me lies Tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies Tell me lies Tell me, tell me lies Oh no-no, you can't disguise You can't disguise No, you can't disguise Tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies

Don't tell me to stop Tell the rain not to drop Tell the wind not to blow 'Cause you said so, mmm, mmm Tell the sun not to shine Not to get up this time, no, no Let it fall by the way But don't leave me where I lay down Tell me love isn't true It's just something that we do Tell me everything I'm not But please Don't tell me to stop

The regular season Chiefs are *not* the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl Chiefs. We're running on at least Year 2 of thinking the Chiefs are beatable this time around based on how they looked in the Regular Season. When it comes to the big games, they're a different team. They are heading to their 5th Super Bowl in 6 seasons - attempting an unprecedented 3rd Super Bowl Victory in a row. If they win, it would be their 4th Super Bowl win in their 5 appearances in 6 years. Their 2 losses in these 6 years of Playoff Dominance? A Super Bowl loss to the Brady led Bucs - that came because their Offensive Line was COMPLETELY decimated by injuries. And an AFC Championship game against the Bengals where they lost on an OT Field Goal. Every other time? Mahomes and Reid handled whatever Defense was put in front of them. Again, I'm not saying completely neglect the Defense. An upgrade from Daquan Jones, who, let's face it, is toast - is needed and should be addressed. But in no way is a Defensive Tackle going to make a bigger difference in overcoming the hurdle than getting Josh someone who can get open so he's not running around not finding anyone open and relying on the Run Game as much as we had to.