BillsFanForever19

Agreed. Spotrac had him at a 23.8 aav. And that was before the cap went up and Michael Pittman and Tee Higgins were Franchised. He's going to the highest bidder. And that bidding war is going to be INSANE. In my opinion, his contract is going to make the Von Miller deal look cheap in comparison. We won't get past the guy at the table telling us the buy in amount, let alone take a seat and compete.

I mean, can it get to 100? With this board, probably. Should it? No. The Hopkins and OBJ threads were WAY more rational and realistic compared to this. That said, it's good he's hitting the market. Someone will pay a King's Ransom for him and remove themselves from Round 1 WR conversation.

He'll get us compliant by the time he needs to. But if you're hoping to see a grand total of what we'll be working with at the start of Free Agency, that's not going to happen. He'll be doing restructures, extensions, and releases all the way through the summer - making moves before or after other moves are made.

Posted this in the "2024 WR Class" as I found it fitting, though it may be better fitted here. Brandon Beane was just talking to Rich Eisen and Daniel Jeremiah at the Combine. A lot of it was about the Drafting of Josh, Josh as a player, the Bills vs. The Chiefs, etc. But they ended with this: A couple things there: - He seems to understand that everyone knows we're in the WR market and though he doesn't deny it, he always seems to throw in TE or RB. Downplaying the need for WR specifically and focusing on playmakers as a whole. Surely by design. - He shut down the media notion of Diggs possibly being moved. Diggs is going to be here this year. End of story. - While I do think the mentioning of RB is probably simply mentioning other playmakers that aren't WR to not completely tip his hand - he has mentioned the position on multiple occasions now. Makes me wonder if he's thinking about it higher than I'd expect. Certainly not Round 1 or Round 2. But maybe higher than the Round 5-7 I think we'd all expect/prefer. I think if a guy like Braelon Allen at a muscular, bruising 245 is available at the bottom of Round 3 or top of Round 4 - that may be something he considers in a move up from 4.

Brandon Beane was just talking to Rich Eisen and Daniel Jeremiah at the Combine. A lot of it was about the Drafting of Josh, Josh as a player, the Bills vs. The Chiefs, etc. But they ended with this: A couple things there: - He seems to understand that everyone knows we're in the WR market and though he doesn't deny it, he always seems to throw in TE or RB. Downplaying the need for WR specifically and focusing on playmakers as a whole. Surely by design. - He shut down the media notion of Diggs possibly being moved. Diggs is going to be here this year. End of story. - While I do think the mentioning of RB is simply mentioning other playmakers that aren't WR to not completely tip his hand - he has mentioned the position on multiple occasions now. Makes me wonder if he's thinking about it higher than I'd expect. Certainly not Round 1 or Round 2. But maybe higher than the Round 5-7 I think we'd all expect/prefer. I think if a guy like Braelon Allen at a muscular, bruising 245 is available at the bottom of Round 3 or top of Round 4 - that may be something he considers in a move up from 4.

Some quick thoughts over the past couple minutes: - Damn. Javon Bullard ran a 4.47. I was hoping he'd run a little slower. - On the flip side, Kam Kitchens just ran a 4.65. - Tyler Owens may not believe in Outer Space, but I bet he believes in that hammy he just pulled on his first 40 run. Between his ridiculous quotes and now this, his agent must be thrilled with his Combine 😆

As @GunnerBill pointed out, in listening to the end of Beane's presser at the Combine - the feeling I got was that Douglas is more likely to be released or traded than extended. I think most of that is going to happen. Though releases for any of the bottom 3 may not happen. As Joe B. pointed out with Harty, the options are: a.) Release him and save 3.2m on the cap b.) Restructure him and save 2.2m on the cap So basically it comes down to a differential of 1 million between having him or not having him. I'm honestly fine with either decision. But I feel like Beane would rather keep him. A second offseason with Allen could develop chemistry that wasn't there in Year 1 and I can easily see a situation where for a million, he'd rather see if continuity with Allen would pay dividends for just a million. At worst, he'll be the 5th or 6th WR not seeing much reps or touches behind Diggs, Round 1 WR, Shakir, and Kincaid (possibly even a mid round WR above him) and be a good returner for just a million. Hines will surely be renegotiated - but he won't be cut. At least not before the end of Training Camp. Pretty clear he and Beane made an arrangement where he'd have a shot to earn a spot this year in exchange for saving some space last year and his agent not causing a fuss about it. If we were to cut him, we would have done it last season. Makes no sense to keep him around and pay him anything just to cut him now if he weren't in the plans. Of which Beane has already said he is.

It's been between 3 and 5 years since we did that. So guys like AJ Epenesa and Boogie Basham are either gone or are going to be gone. What kills me is people who are like "I'm tired of Drafting and spending big money on Defensive Lineman". Okay, but like you said, 2/3 of our Defensive Line are FA's. So we really don't have a choice but to spend Draft Picks and/or money to field a roster. People have to get over the 2019-2021 Drafts. That's a lifetime ago in the NFL. It happened and we had varying degrees of success between Oliver, Groot, Epenesa, and Basham. But now we need to find a starter on the Edge (or at least starting caliber, as we can't just get assume Miller will bounce back), a starter alongside Oliver, the first guy up in rotation at both DT spots (who will both get a ton of reps), and at least one more DE and two more DT's for depth to go along with them. Like it or not, we have to Draft Defensive Lineman this year. It's not really an option. Hopefully it doesn't happen until Round 2 with a WR in Round 1. But it's going to happen and people are just going to have to get over it.

Pretty much exactly this. Use the most minimum of assets for the RB position. In my eyes that's a vet minimum RB in FA. If you can get a better RB than Ty Johnson for the same amount of money, that's fine by me. But if it isn't Ty Johnson himself, I'm not interested in paying a penny more than what it would cost to retain him. And in the Draft, take a guy no earlier than Round 5, preferably Round 6 or Round 7, maybe even the top Undrafted option. Late Round or Undrafted contributors come out of every Draft and you could find an unexpected stud. The biggest concession and most extreme i'd get is if Braelon Allen was still on the board in Round 4. I'd have to give that some HEAVY consideration. But I'd expect he'd be gone by then, although opinions of where exactly he'll go are all over the map. https://www.si.com/nfl/ravens/news/baltimore-ravens-rb-braelon-allen-wisconsin-combine-draft-rumors-next-derrick-henry-free-agency

I think it really goes without saying that we'll be going DL by Round 2 (personally, preferably) at the latest. Yes, we will be addressing DL in FA. But the idea that we'll cover 4 DT's and 2 DE's (at the minimum), including 1 starter at Edge, 1 starter at 1T, and both first men up in the rotation at 3T and 1T (both of which will get a significant amount of snaps), all in FA seems incredibly unlikely to me. Even if we were able to accomplish that unlikely feat somehow, we'd then probably have to address the Safety position in Round 2. Outside WR opposite Diggs is the most important hole to cover. WR's of substance will cost too much to address in FA. So devoting Round 1 to that is a borderline necessity. But the idea that we'll go to WR again in Round 2 - when that player should be behind Diggs, Round 1 WR, Shakir, and Kincaid in touches to begin with - at the expense of players who will most likely start or at the very least will get far more reps, seems a message board driven fantasy, in my opinion. I'd be surprised if we even took another WR with our 3rd pick.

Because that's where he played in College. And that was against weak College competition. You don't take a guy who ran ~90% out of the slot at a smaller school and then expect him to play Outside in the NFL. Like I said, even Steve Smith who's his biggest supporter, said the same. I mean, if you don't believe me, Google him. Everyone says the same thing. He's an NFL Slot. Even the idea of using him as a Tweener inside/outside guy is a projection. And for that position, even if we're using multiples, we drafted a Slot WR in Round 1 last season in Dalton Kincaid. Khalil Shakir has also emerged as a star in the same position. We're not going to take on a 3rd Slot and leave us with just Diggs as a capable Outside WR. We saw what happened down the stretch when all we had was Diggs and a myriad of Slots (Shakir, Sherfield, Harty) that we tried to use on the Outside. We were nowhere. Shakir has become a star in the Slot. If the Bills felt he was better suited on the Outside, we'd have put him there and seen success when Davis went down. Shakir's success came from the middle of the field.

He needs some help, both alongside him and behind him at 3T. I was watching an interview with Joe Buscaglia who surmised that they used Oliver WAY too much and just ran him into the ground by not rotating him nearly as often as they should have by the end of the year. Mostly because the people behind him at 3T provided little to nothing on the field. Combine that with Daquan Jones returning next to him from injury and not being nearly as effective, "playing on one arm" as he put it, and the pass rush from the Edge disappearing and that's what he says caused him to not be as productive by the end of the season.

Again, Corley looks great. He's a helluva Slot. But he's Slot. Not even an Inside/Outside WR. A TRUE Slot. We have Slot's. But we need an Outside WR. Drafting Corley only removes Shakir or Kincaid from the field and leaves the hole vacated from Gabe Davis remaining on the Outside. As high as Steve Smith was on him, even he said you can't expect to take him from his practically exclusive Slot usage in a small college and stick him Outside in the NFL. Thomas Jr., Franklin, and Coleman are fits for us. Corley is not.

Before listening to Beane's press conference at the Combine, I'd have agreed that Douglas belonged on the "certain to almost certain" list. However, hearing his reply to the question of him being extended at the end of his presser - I no longer think that's the case.

Like I said, I haven't watched his focused review on him that he posted yesterday. But that's a big differential in opinion to go from what Smith said about him in his first quick review of WR's to his focused breakdown. He just started doing these. I'll be interested to see if he stays in his Top 5 when he's done with all of them. I agree that our focus should clearly be on getting a WR in Round 1. There isn't a mock I've done that has me taking anything but WR if any of the Top 6 guys I've identified as sure fire 1st Rounders are available. However.... With Higgins and Pittman being Franchised and say Mike Evans is Franchised or retained (which is a likely possibility). And then others from the next group of guys are retained - we could be in a situation where teams turn to Round 1 to address WR that weren't expecting to. In that situation, if 3 WR's go between MHJ, Odunze, and Nabers being picked and when we pick (likely 20+ picks) and we aren't able to move up from lack of a partner and/or them going way higher than expected. And they have the next highest graded WR being a 2nd Round Grade and a large cluster of other WR's that grade out similarly. AND there's a Defensive Lineman sticking out on the board like a sore thumb at a position of need that should have gone in the first 15-20 picks or so like a Byron Murphy.... I think we'd be doing ourselves a disservice to take the 7th WR off the board there simply for the sake of taking a WR in Round 1 and not upsetting people in the moment. Though if that were to happen, I would hope he would know he'd be able to move up from 60 and would look to do so to get a guy they like from the next cluster of graded WR's. It's a very specific scenario and one that I'm not rooting for. But it's just to say that even those of us who want a WR in Round 1 shouldn't be closed off to specific situations where going DL in Round 1 is the right option.

Hey, I agreed with you on Morse and one of your last WR core posts 😜 I only disagree with the extreme and the unlikely. And that's 99.9% of your posts. If you look earlier in this thread, you'll see I was having to defend even using so much as a 6th on a RB. I'm not saying don't Draft one at all. But it is an INCREDIBLY devalued position. One where every year, late round picks, Undrafted guys, and league minimum players dominate the league. Those first 3 picks are gold. We're going to have to rely on them to fill holes we are unable to do in FA. Likely we'll be looking for another Starter or someone like a DT3, which gets a huge amount of reps in rotation. RB is a luxury pick in general. Doubly so when you have a Pro Bowl starter already. Cannot and will not be using a pick that high on a secondary RB. Taking a RB that high would justifiably be having this board saying "what the hell are we doing?". And if we were to go a little higher with a RB than I expected, it wouldn't be for another speed, finesse guy. It would be for someone like Braelon Allen at 245 lbs.

That sounds like a quote that would take McDermott from 6 to Midnight. If he comes into their meeting with a Notebook, we might need a medic on standby for clappy.

Spending anything earlier than a mid Day 3 pick at RB is crazy talk.

I don't mind retaining Harty with Beane's proposed restructure. Cutting him would save 3.2m and he proposed a restructure that would save us 2.2m. So you're essentially paying a million to have a guy here who will have a year of development with Josh and you're not really relying on him as anything but depth at a depth price. An extra year in the system could show growth, he has great speed, and is a good Return guy. Worst case scenario, he's your 5th or 6th WR (who hardly sees the field), returns kicks for you, and costs you just a million. Best case being Josh and him develop a chemistry in Year 2 together that wasn't there in Year 1. But if we're doing that and honestly even if we're NOT doing that - I don't see the logic in retaining Sherfield. I would MUCH rather sign a different WR in FA or Draft a guy in the mid rounds for that role. But at least he still has Round 1 WR on his list. I know you want MASSIVE changes everywhere and a WR in Round 1 AND Round 2 - but I don't see that as a realistic possibility. Like I said before, the most you're going to see is a Round 1 WR, a mid tier FA, and a high Day 3 Draft Pick with an outside chance of moving back into the bottom of Round 3 after we've spent 2 other picks in between at other positions. And even that opinion of mine is considered extreme in comparison to what Buscaglia and others see as happening.

Yeah, any time I hear "body catcher" - it turns me off big time. Hands are one of the first things that comes out of Beane's mouth when discussing what he looks for first in a WR. It just added to the list of things that has me out on Xavier Worthy as a potential Bills prospect. And hearing him say of Mitchell "90% Body Catcher" - oof! But I haven't watched his focused breakdown of Mitchell yet, so maybe that percentage changed with more film.

I mean, there's a big difference between getting a 3rd straight up vs. getting a 3rd when you're giving them a player AND a 5th. Ramsey was also costing a LOT more money and cap space in the future and removing a lot of cap from the trading team, which factors into compensation. A 3rd for Douglas and a 5th is the price we paid. There was at least one other team in on him when we did. Offseason or Midseason, I don't think the price would drop too terribly much. But whatever we can get, I'd much rather see us get some kind of return as giving up a 3rd for just a half of a season of play is a little rough.

I laughed every time someone suggested Pittman leaving Indianapolis. He's a 26 year old star #1 WR, with a good bill of health, that was their Rookie QB's go to guy as he's developing, and Indianapolis is 74m under the cap. Much like Tee Higgins before Jim, it was a no brainer to me he'd be Franchised. In a vacuum, it's good for people who are afraid we'll re-sign Gabe Davis. But the reality is that anytime a FA WR is taken off the market, it not only drives up Davis' price, it drives up the price of any WR left. This makes guys like Hollywood Brown or Odell Beckham Jr. go from an outside chance to an impossibility as they'll be the top options available and will become too overpaid for our price range. And it may make that next level of guys like Curtis Samuel too expensive as well. It also makes more teams looking at WR turn to the Draft, which will make it probably impossible for us to get a guy like Brian Thomas Jr. and have to Trade up for the 5th WR off the board instead of them falling to us. So in the long run, it's not a good thing for us.

That was from a quick rundown he did on a number of guys. But yeah, he wasn't kind to Walker and he was brutal to Johnny Wilson: