BillsFanForever19

Right, a Midseason trade for a Player. And one where he made sure to get a pick back (a 3rd for Douglas and a 5th) in return so he wasn't straight up losing one.

Beane doesn't trade next year picks. The only time he ever has is for a player Midseason. Even then, he always tries to recoup a pick later to make up for it. He's always in the market to add more, not give those away. Anything's possible. But history says it's pretty unlikely he's going to trade multiple picks from next year away.

One thing that I got about a year ago that I was pretty excited about was an Original 1987 Costacos Brothers 'Machine Gun Kelly' Poster. I spent a really long time looking for one of those in good condition at a decent price.

I tend to agree at this point that it's best to just sit at 28 and take the best available WR for us. That makes maneuvering around the board a much better situation for us in the following Rounds. The only way I see a Trade Up in Round 1 is if Thomas were to fall within 5 or so picks or there's a run of 6 WR's before 26.

Those are pretty much the 4 I've zeroed in on for us, as far players we interviewed and how I see the board talking. I think Worthy is probably unlikely, both in terms of where I think he's going to go and his fit. But I do hope he pushes someone down to us. If Thomas Jr. and Mitchell or Legette go before him - maybe. Thomas Jr. will require a trade up. If he falls within striking range, I'd expect Beane to pull the trigger. Otherwise, I think it's Legette or Mitchell at 28 - with maybe a very small move up if WR6 comes off the board by Pick 25.

I don't think the idea of Trading up in the 1st is completely out. Though it certainly makes things harder. Our first 4th, our first 5th, and our first 6th (all extra picks) can get us up 5 slots to Houston at 23. There is a chance he'll be there, especially if the Worthy hype train makes Thomas fall a bit. One thing that I think it does do is further dispells the idea of going WR at both 28 and 60. I never thought that was likely to begin with. Now I doubt it even more. I don't see a way we're addressing only WR before pick 129 at the bottom of the 4th. Sure, he could. But that probably wouldn't come until Draft Day. You don't often hear of Picks for Picks trades before the Draft, outside of the Top 5. Even if he talks about it before hand with someone, there's no guarantee that the deal gets done when the time comes. So he can't 100% plan on it. You hear all the time "we had a deal in place, but then (so and so) was on the board and they just couldn't pass on him". And the problem is, yes, we could get a 3rd Back with some movement. But that involves trading picks that we weren't expecting to trade to do that. Making other trades harder. A lot to ask to trade up in Round 1 for a WR and trade up into Round 3, when our extra ammo doesn't start until the end of Round 4. You can say "oh, well, just trade some picks next year". But Beane doesn't have a track record showing he's comfortable doing that. Next year's picks are always gold to him. He tends to collect those and doesn't trade them away.

I'm starting to feel like AJ is a bit of a more possibility. I can't see Von taking a massive paycut for incentives he won't be able to reach because he just handed them the money to get a guy who is definitely going to start in his place. It would be a guy who's an AJ type. Starter level quality if you need him to be, but more of a fit as a situational pass rusher. And I could see a scenario where he did that specifically for us to be able to keep AJ.

Yikes. This is bad. I mean, with two 4th's and 3 5th's we can probably make a deal to get us back into Round 3. But that's still costing us picks in a trade up we weren't planning on making.

Almost assuredly. NFL League Minimum for 3 accrued seasons is 1.055m. I doubt we're paying much more than minimum for TE3.

Sure - if we can fast forward to 4 years into the future and know for a fact that whichever undersized prospect you're referring to will hold up, be able to be a True Outside WR, and perform at a level of Mooney or higher than some of the guys who check more boxes - by all means. And if we could select some of these guys in Round 5 where Darrell Mooney was Drafted instead of 28, I don't think anyone would have a problem with that either. But for every Mooney and Brown, which Brown isn't really a great comparison to make because he HAS been injury prone, there's Drafted players with subpar measurements that couldn't hold up and/or couldn't make the transition as hoped. If this were a Draft that didn't have SO many options, maybe we'd be a little less picky. But when it comes to Round 1 and what we're looking for in this Draft - passing on guys who are less of a concern in certain areas for ones that are is not a concession we have to make.

If I didn't know any better, I'd think your posts were just troll jobs.

Right now, I think it's 1 of 3 guys. A small-medium trade up for Brian Thomas Jr. or Adonai Mitchell or Xavier Legette at 28. I'd be happy with any of them. If I'm having to pick only 1, right now my gut says Legette at 28.

Oh for sure! Sammy was FAR and away the #1 WR in that Draft going into it. He was considered the best WR coming out in years. I even heard some people call him the best WR prospect of all time. He was "can't miss". Which is the point I'm getting at. Even the most sure thing prospects miss. Often times the guys considered the next tier of talent end up better. Minnesota could have gave up 22 and a bunch of other picks to move up and take Ruggs, Jeudy, or Lamb instead of staying pat and selecting Jefferson, for example. That would have been a mistake. Don't get me wrong, Nabers looks great. But there's no guarantee he's going to turn out to be better than the guys we'll end up with at 28 or who we can get for a smaller trade up. So giving up two 1st's, 2 3rd's, and a 5th is frankly irresponsible IMO.

You're right, I was remembering wrong. We could have taken Evans or Mack instead of Sammy at 4. But if we stayed put at 9, we could have gotten OBJ (picked at 12) or Aaron Donald (picked at 13). It just goes to show that even the higher ranked players aren't guarantees to be the best. And when you pay the farm to bet on that and it turns out wrong, it's all the much worse.

You've really been going off the deep end the past couple days, my dude. Is this in conjunction with Chris Jones and Derrick Henry? That line applies to Drafting a Franchise QB. It's not remotely the same scenario. He was saying if Josh didn't work he'd be fired and if he landed a Stud Franchise QB - who cares what he gave up? That doesn't apply to WR and he has job security now. And we didn't even BOTHER interviewing Malik Nabers (or MHJ or Odunze for that matter) at the Combine. There's a reason for that. The depth of the class is such that you can walk away with a very good WR in Round 1 without having to give up anything. Possibly even better than the ones at the top. You never know. Were you around for the Sammy Watkins trade? We gave up a bunch of stuff and could have stayed put and got Odell Beckham Jr. at WR or Aaron Donald. We've been killed for it ever since. And this? This is the idea of giving up the farm for one WR when you can get another... on crack. And for the millionth time - Diggs isn't being traded. And we'd never in a million years trade him to Houston, even if we were to move him. If Brian Thomas is on the board at somewhere like 16 before the Jags pick, that's about as high as we'll possibly go. And I don't even expect us to go that high. Probably closer to the low 20's. 6 is a pipe dream. The idea of Trading away our #1 WR and trying to win a Super Bowl next year with 2 guys on the Outside who have never played a down in the NFL is a fever dream.

I agree that they'll probably sign one more at the price of Rapp or cheaper and then Draft 1, if not 2. As for comparing it to the Guard role last season though, it's not really the same. We knew we were replacing Rodger Saffold with someone and that Ryan Bates was on shaky ground as Starter following the 2022 season. We then signed McGovern, signed Edwards, and then Drafted Torrence in the 2nd. McGovern's contract was clearly starter money. Edwards was obviously signed as insurance for whomever we Drafted and his contract reflected it, at a 1.7m league minimum deal. It is possible a Draft Pick is undeniable and beats out Rapp. But the money on his contract is not backup money for a Safety.

Like it or not, we've already replaced one with Taylor Rapp. Even if a fair amount of that 3 year "up to 14.5m" contract is incentives - that's still way more than we pay for a Backup. Especially this year. For example, for that backup/insurance role we signed Rapp for last season - we spent only 1.7m. Ultimately, it appears to me that Rapp was signed to a low cost Starters deal. There's a chance we Draft a Safety or two who ends up being better and replaces him. But I don't see a scenario where we sign two more Safeties at the same cost or more.

I don't think it's a viable scenario any way you slice it. Legette will not be available near 60 after he tested and measured as he did. Legette and McConkey were on top of each other before the Combine and especially after how each performed after. Worthy is also not going to be available anywhere near where you have him either. I've mentioned this a few times, but Rappaport talked to some execs who told him Worthy may have worked his way up to WR4 with his unheard of speed. I'd believe that when I see it, but he's also not a mid-2nd Rounder either. Pearsall is a true Slot. Played Slot in College, projects to Slot in the Pros. We won't take a Pure Slot with both Shakir and Kincaid there. Got a link? I think you're hearing what you want to hear. Everytime I've heard it mentioned it's his "bold prediction". No reporter has the first inkling of what Beane definitively plans on doing. Hell, Beane himself probably doesn't even know what he'll be doing definitively until the board starts to play out. Even the idea of WR at 28 is merely a predication right now.

Simmons will be 31 this year. Signing him would fly in the face of the "we need to get younger" mantra that was clearly directed towards the Safety position. We'd just be trading one expensive aging cast off for another.

I'd say if we were to make a move like that, it's clearly Brian Thomas Jr. to me. I don't think we'd have to get that high for someone like AD Mitchell and I don't think we'd give up what it would take to get that high to Draft a guy like Worthy, with the amount of questions mark he has outside of Speed. In my opinion, anyone else but those two (and the top 3 guys who will be long gone) will be available at 28 or with a smaller move than that. But I'd caution reading anything into it. Sal has brought this up a number of times, but he always says that it's his gut instinct talking and an uninformed prediction. Not something where he's talking about the possibility of it happening because he's heard something.

With Franklin, i'd say that there's a difference between watching the highlights and watching all of his tape. In talking about him above, I posted a link to Cover 1 discussing him. One of the major concerns is that he has a hard time dealing with press and getting off the line. They mentioned games where he struggled against CB's who aren't NFL level players. The things that made him attractive were that he had Elite speed near Worthy and was 6'3". And even though he looked skinny and frail, he was listed at 190 lbs. Even with those things, there's a myth that Franklin was a consensus 1st Round pick and a complete WR. That wasn't true even before the Combine, except for this board. Many prognosticators believed he was a 2nd Round pick behind a lot of guys already. Mel Kiper didn't list him in his Top 10 WR's. Then he gets to the Combine and he's not 6'3" - he's actually 6'1". He's not 190 lbs, he's actually 175. And his supposed elite speed was nowhere near Worthy and slower than guys like Legette and McConkey, only ranking 10th among WR's. More concerning was his 1.61 10 yard split, ranking dead last among all WR's there. Confirming the concerns at the line. Then he does his on-field work and performs poorly. Running the gauntlet so badly Daniel Jeremiah was calling him out on Live TV. The Combine exposed him. There's a difference between not looking great there and having every single one of the things that made you attractive dispelled and the things that were a concern highlighted. There's a lot wrong with that list you were commenting on. But Franklin being in Tier 4 instead of 2 or 3 doesn't shock me.

I mean, you can *hope* he's not the Starter - but I think that's false hope. Looking at a 3 year deal that's up to 14.5 - that doesn't sound like Backup money to me for the Safety position. Even if that's a lot of incentives, I don't see them even paying 3m aav for a Backup Safety. We only paid 1.7m for that role last season.

Even if a fair amount of that "up to" 14.5 is incentives - that's still a starter contract. A low end starting contract, but that's not the 1 year 1.7m we signed him for last year as a Backup. McDermott always values players who have experience with him and in his scheme over anything else. I thought we all knew Rapp was coming back as a low priced Starting option. It was almost always mentioned in any forecast of offseason predictions. I don't think he's as terrible as you're making him out to be. I preferred having him out there when Hyde was out, honestly. He singlehandedly closed the Miami game for us. He has years of starting experience and is entering Year 2 with McDermott. I don't see having him out there as 1 of our Starting Safeties as being a bigger liability than what we had last season and I suspect when the actual numbers come out, it'll be less than Hyde or Poyer.

That would surprise me. Though I'd def be here for it. Prevailing thought is he's being cut next season when it's best to get out of his deal. And the way his contract is, we don't really have a leg to stand on as far as "we need you to take a paycut if you want to stay here". He and his agent know with a 20m Dead Cap Hit, it's not really an option for us. They also probably know that odds are pretty good he's out next season. I don't see him choosing to take a paycut under these circumstances and I'd be surprised if Beane even tried.