Rampant Buffalo

There are good things you could say about McDermott. There are bad things you could say, especially about his performance in the last four years of playoff losses. Both the good and bad have been extensively discussed here. At this point, throwing the PFF rating into the discussion reveals more about the metric itself, than it does about McDermott.

If you reread my earlier post, you'll see I pointed out two things the NFL did incorrectly.

A college professor (also an Eagles fan) performed an experiment involving air pressure and footballs. His conclusion: the Patriots had not cheated in deflate gate. He also gave the impression that NFL leadership was unaware of the laws of physics, as they pertain to air pressure in footballs. Let's say its a 40 degree day, and 72 degrees in the locker room. You want to measure the air pressure of footballs at halftime. Do you do that outdoors, or right after the footballs have been brought in to the locker room, or after they've been in the locker room 20 minutes? At the time of deflate gate, the NFL did not have procedures to address those questions. As for Spygate: it's my understanding that, for some insane reason, it was actually allowed to video tape the signals of one's opponents. But, you had to do it in some locations but not others. Apparently the Patriots did it from the wrong location. We'll never know the whole story, because Rodger Goodell destroyed the evidence he said he had. But by all means hate the Patriots as much as you want. Their owner had sex with an underage sex slave.

You answered your own question. If he's only working one day a week, he can fit a second job into his schedule. Do I think Tom Brady could help Josh Allen? Yes. Is he the guy at the top of my list? No. My guy is Kurt Warner. After I watched a video of Warner analyzing Josh Allen's play, my reaction was, this is the guy I want helping Allen to improve.

Look at the late '70s or early '80s. At least if you're into sci fi, it was a good time for original theme movies. You had the first Star Wars movie, and then Empire Strikes Back. You had the original Dune. Tron. That's rock solid content, at least for people who like that genre. It's a golden age, and people are thrilled to see original theme movies. Fast forward a few decades. A person is looking at the new movies in the theater. He or she would love to be blown away by an original theme movie: something as good as the first Star Wars or Tron had been. But nothing in the theater looks remotely close to being able to do that. So instead he or she settles for a remake. Yes, this is definitely settling. Which is better: seeing the original Tron for the first time, or seeing Dune remake number three? Obviously Tron. Why is the guy in the earlier example watching Dune remake number three? Because he doesn't think any of the original theme movies available are going to make the same contribution Tron had made. Why does this happen? I see two problems. 1) Stuff gets used up. The first time you see a particular plot twist, maybe you're intrigued. The tenth time you see that same plot twist, it's old hat. The more content that gets created, the more that new content is going to remind you of old content 2) Downgrade in Hollywood talent. A guy like George Lucas retires, and gets replaced with Kathleen Kennedy. Maybe Hollywood isn't as good as it could be, at identifying the next George Lucas.

I demonstrated my own point. The reason he wanted to watch a remake is because he was unimpressed with the original theme movies.

The specific concern I had with the heat stroke game was this. The Dolphins played games with their sidelines, to create a situation where their team would be in the shade, and their opponent would be in the sun. Clearly, they can't pull stuff like that after sunset. Football is a physically strenuous activity under any circumstances. Add in the heat and humidity of South Florida in September, and that makes it worse. It will be a tough game. But, it won't be a solar cooker game. Football-related deaths are rare. But they do happen, and my sense is that overheating is one of the more common causes. For the Dolphins to seek an unfair advantage over their opponents by cooking them in the sun is not merely bad sportsmanship. It is dangerous and potentially lethal. Suppose that the Dolphins keep doing what they've been doing, with Rodger Goodell continuing to do nothing in response. And imagine if someone dies as a result. What would the press coverage on that look like? What about the lawsuits? I don't know how much Goodell cares about fair play, but you think he would care about stuff like that.

If Coleman is the same guy in the NFL that he was in college, he's a bust. You look at a guy like Josh Allen. He's a significantly better player at the NFL level, than he'd been at Wyoming. Maybe Coleman will make a similar improvement at WR, that Josh Allen made at QB? The thing is this. Even at Wyoming, there was stuff about Josh Allen which was elite. Elite physical traits. He'd make elite throws, throws that the average NFL QB has no business making. His Wonderlic score was significantly higher than any of the other first round QBs from his draft class. He wasn't a finished product by any means, but there was elite stuff there upon which you could build. If you asked me to name one elite thing about Coleman, I don't know what it would be. I'm not saying Coleman can't improve. But, I am saying that the probability of him becoming good is significantly lower than might have been the case for some other prospects.

Agreed. Not being open is, indeed, Coleman's specialty.

Concerns: OL. The departure of Mitch Morse means we have one less starting caliber OL. What starting caliber OL did we add, to make up for that? WR. Last year our X was Davis and our Z was Diggs. This year we have an X of Coleman and a Z of . . . ? Marquez Valdes-Scantling is going into his 7th season, and has never had 700 receiving yards. He's spent his career catching passes from Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. I think we upgraded at gadget player (Curtis Samuel instead of McKenzie). Safety. Both of last year's starters gone, Bishop the only notable addition. CB depth, as described in the OP. DL. Will von Miller be significantly improved over last year? If not, where does that leave us? OC. Serious questions about Brady. DC. What are we getting in Babich? Do we have enough problems with just those? Apparently not. Just for kicks, we also have a question mark at kicker. If I had to pick just one thing from the above list, it would be wide receiver.

Gladly. Scenario 1. Of the last ten original theme movies a man has watched, he's really enjoyed nine of them. He's watched previews for upcoming original theme movies. A number of those previews look very promising. Scenario 2. Of the original theme movies a man has watched recently, the vast majority have been letdowns. The previews for upcoming original theme movies don't leave him feeling hopeful. Let's say that a man is experiencing scenario 2. It's summer, he's just spent the day outside. Now he's in the mood to be in a movie theater, watching a big screen and eating popcorn. He liked the older versions of Dune. A new version has just come out, which seems promising. He knows this isn't going to be his most memorable movie ever. But at least he's getting something. At least it's not a dud. So he chooses that, because none of the original theme movies available seem to offer a huge upside.

I agree that counting defensive stops does not differentiate between FGs vs. TDs. But it's not as though we always hold the Chiefs or Bengals to FGs in our postseason games, without them ever finding the end zone. Also there were times when the Chiefs kicked FGs against the non-Bills playoff defenses I examined. If you guys want to poke holes in my metric, fine. It's by no means a perfect metric, and I'm not claiming it's perfect. But other defenses the Chiefs faced in the postseason were 3x or 3.5 x as effective as the Bills defense, at generating defensive stops. Either that tells you something meaningful about defensive performance, or it doesn't. What do you think Josh Allen would prefer? The 6 - 7 defensive stops that other postseason defenses have been getting against the Chiefs? Or the 1 - 2 defensive stops his own defense has been generating?

Let's say, purely hypothetically, that the offense turns the ball over deep in its own territory. The defense comes on the field, holds them to just three plays, and then a field goal try. Would I have considered that to be a defensive stop? I hadn't actually thought about that. Why not? Because that set of stuff hadn't actually happened, either in the Bills' recent playoff losses, or in the postseason games other defenses had had against the Chiefs. Doing things your way wouldn't change the number of defensive stops either for the Bills defense, or for the other defenses I examined. I hear what you're saying. If the offense were to turn the ball over deep in its own territory, about the best you could reasonably expect from your defense would be to hold them to three plays and then a field goal try. If that should occur in the future, I will award the defense in question a defensive stop. But, that hasn't happened in any of the games I examined.

A defensive stop is a punt or turnover. A FG is not a defensive stop.

How would you like your eggs? 😉 There was a perfectly good egg joke to be had here. Out of every single person who ever participated in this forum, you are the one who should have been most equipped to see that joke! 😮

He shouldn't.

When I talk about stuff going their way, I'm not just referring to Drake Maye becoming an elite QB. I'm also referring to their 2nd round WR, and their 3rd and 4th round round OL, coming in and making good contributions quickly. Finally, their defense would need to maintain the top 10 level of play it provided in 2023. If that combination of events happens, they'd have a decent shot at overtaking the Jets and Dolphins. Maybe Rodgers is not what he was two years ago. Maybe the Dolphins take a step back.

Fixed! 👍

I believe my soft zone/prevent defense statement is correct. But, I don't claim to be a football expert. In the Chiefs/Bengals playoff game I mentioned earlier, the Bengals defense hadn't accomplished much against the Chiefs in the first half. In fact, they looked a lot like McDermott's defense usually does in its playoff games against the Chiefs. But then in the second half, they tightened up their coverage, and started generating stops. The vast majority of their six stops came in the second half, or in overtime. I agree that Beane could have done more to feed talent to the defense. The DL is one example of a unit whose performance hasn't lived up to the resources invested. You also have a point about injuries, especially this past time around. If a defense generates just two defensive stops, that in and of itself pretty much determines the outcome of the game. You have to be near-perfect on offense to give yourself a chance. In the year of 13 seconds, Josh Allen had attained the highest QB rating in NFL postseason history. Even that was not enough to overcome the collapse of the Frazier/McDermott defense (2 stops against the Chiefs). We appear to have taken a step back at offensive coordinator and WR, compared to what we'd been in that game. That means the offense will be less capable of compensating for yet another defensive collapse. Do I think the defense is capable of being the next '85 Bears or the next Steel Curtain? No. I don't see the horses for that. But, I do think we have the horses to generate more than two defensive stops, in our playoff games against the Chiefs and Bengals. Whether we have the defensive coaching is another matter.

Four. Four is the minimum number of defensive stops I need to see in our playoff games against the Chiefs. Four is my number, and my number is four. Is that a realistic standard? Is it attainable? In the year of 13 seconds, the Chiefs had three playoff games. In their first, the Steelers' defense generated 6 defensive stops. In their third playoff game, they lost to the Bengals, in overtime. The Bengals defense also generated six defensive stops. Their second playoff game was against the Bills, and of course our defense was just 1/3 as effective as either of the other two. It generated two defensive stops. Those games occurred when the Chiefs still had Tyreek Hill. In this most recent Super Bowl, the 49ers defense generated seven defensive stops against the Chiefs. I'm not asking for six or even seven defensive stops against the Chiefs. I'm only asking for four. Under McDermott, the Bills defense has never generated more than two defensive stops in a postseason game against the Chiefs or Bengals. Culprit #1 for that is coaching. I don't need the defense to win every snap, or win every drive. That's an unrealistic objective. But, I do want the defense to put up a fight, every single play. Soft zone/prevent defense is the opposite of putting up a fight. It's allowing the other team to gain yards in 8 - 12 yard chunks. The Chiefs offense unwraps a present. Look! It's 12 yards, gifted by McDermott. They unwrap their next present. 8 yards! They unwrap yet another. 10 yards! That's not a winning defensive strategy. Obviously. Why is McDermott so good at defensive coaching so much of the time, and so completely boneheaded the rest? I have no idea. I'm not going to present any kind of theory on that. I just want the boneheadedness to stop, especially in our playoff games against elite passing teams.

The premise of this thread is that some other AFCE team takes the division from the Bills. Two ways that could happen. 1) The Bills take a step down, creating a void for some other team to fill. 2) The Bills stay about the same. The Bills fail to win the division because some other team takes a step up. If we're talking scenario 1), then I agree with the majority that it likely comes down to the Jets or the Dolphins. But if we're talking scenario 2), I'd argue that it could just as easily be the Patriots as any other team in our division. They have the most upside, if stuff goes their way.

The decision to hire Mayo as a head coach is a head scratcher. No doubt. I don't understand why they'd do something like that. That being said, I'll put Doug Marrone out there as an example of a bad head coach propped up by good defensive coordinators (Pettine and Schwartz). Also, Chan Gailey is an example of a reasonably good head coach, dragged down by a horrible choice of defensive coordinator (Dave Wannestadt). Without knowing the level of coaching talent with which Mayo has surrounded himself, I can't really comment about how good or bad the Patriots' overall coaching is likely to be. I will say this though. If I'm a rookie who craves playing time, I'd rather take my chances with a young, whippersnapper HC looking to prove something, than I would with a man in his 70s. There are plenty of examples of top 5 QBs who didn't live up to their draft position. But if Drake Maye does live up to the 3rd overall pick, he's the second-best QB in the division.

Looks like I'm the one person who voted for the Patriots. Look at the jump Houston made last year, with a rookie C.J. Stroud. By no means am I saying that Drake Maye is the next Stroud. But, I am saying that even as a rookie, there's a chance he's better than Tua or the ghost of Aaron Rodgers. They took a WR (Polk) in the 2nd round. They took an OT in the 3rd and an OG in the 4th. Later in the 4th they added another WR. Depending on how these draft picks play out, they might have significantly upgraded themselves on offense. The Patriots had a top 10 defense in 2023. Do I expect the Patriots to take the division this year? No. But, I see a team with the potential to make more noise than maybe a lot of people are expecting.

To give a somewhat more serious reply to your post: going into the draft, I wanted the Bills to either trade up for one of the top three WRs, or stay put and take Ladd McConkey. When the first round ended, the Bills were sitting there with 33rd overall, not yet used, and McConkey still available. A night of false hope, before the Bills took Coleman. Then McConkey went at 34. The Bills had already traded away Diggs at this point. Going into the draft, they needed a Z receiver (Diggs replacement) and an X (Gabe Davis replacement). In college, McConkey primarily played Z. What was the logic in taking Coleman over McConkey? This is purely speculation on my part, but I think they were frustrated with Diggs' lack of production in the playoffs, especially against the Chiefs. The Chiefs generally use press coverage. Getting off of press isn't one of the stronger aspects of McConkey's game. Maybe they felt a bigger, stronger player, such as Coleman, would be more successful against press coverage than McConkey would have been. There's sense to a thought process like that. I just don't agree with it. At some point, you have to draft the better player. In college, McConkey was a much better player than Coleman. But, Coleman is the player we got. I hope those who see untapped potential in him are right, and that I am wrong. If Coleman plays at a Stevie Johnson level, for at least seven years in a Bills uniform, I'll be happy and call the pick a success.

"And God was wroth with the people. And God punished the people, with fire and brimstone, with plague, with famine, with locusts, with boils, and with autocorrect."