RJ (not THAT RJ)

Yes I am making up the rules, as one might expect from a humorous interjection into a discussion on a football fan board. I am so delighted to see you carry on this conversation with the light touch and sense of humor that has become the trademark of the new TBD. Apparently, a good-natured jab at the Immortal Tuna is a terrible example of lèse majesté to some. I shall endeavor not to commit such an awful crime in the future.

How does the data not fit my theory? I just told you how it did. Tell you what. If the Dolphins win the Super Bowl. I will pronounce the BPLoDR defunct. Will that make you happy? If, however, they do not, and if Tuna ends up leaving Miami within the next three years, which would fit his pattern, I expect a recognition of the Law's validity.

Nice numbers, but the point of diminishing returns is quite simple: NYG: 2 super bowl wins NE: one SB appearance, no wins NYJ: one AFC Championship Appearance, no wins DAL: No playoff wins MIA: No playoff wins Considering that each of the teams after the Giants picked up Tuna claiming it would lead to a SB championship, one sees that the highs get lower with each team. Does that mean he is a bad coach or GM? No, but it also means that the assumption that success replicates itself is flawed. If anything, it is a photocopy of a photocopy, each time a bit fainter.

That is actually not true. Parcells had his best success in NY and NE, places where he was not the GM or front office guy. Doesn't anyone remember his complaint when he was bailing on NE about having to make the dinner but not being able to buy the groceries? Ironically, his demand for total control, combined with the natural short attention span of someone who has already enjoyed great success, is what burned him out in Dallas. Whether he hangs around MIA remains to be seen.

Actually, he and a bunch of friends invested in real estate... then watched it tank. Brunell apparently had committed himself to covering the losses, and can no longer do it.

He also just declared bankruptcy and needs a paycheck.

You make a good point that there are better examples of coaches whose reputation did not mean success the second time around than Parcells—Ditka and Seifert are much better, as is, to my mind, Jimmy Johnson—though I really do not see why it is "laughable" for Bills fans to point out the diminishing returns. I can see clearly what goes on elsewhere even if I know how bad the Bills have been, and I for one am not saying the Bills did better. I am simply a deep skeptic on the power of "genius" coaches, since I think there is an alchemy between coaching, good players, and general good luck in any sport that is beyond any one person's ability to control. If Norwood makes that kick, who is the genius coach of SB XXV? Would Bill Belichek be considered a genius head coach without Tom Brady, whom he did not select as his starting QB before the hit on Bledsoe forced his hand? Heck, whatever you think about the Tuck Rule, that was a stroke of good fortune that saved the Pats' season in 2001. Or, to use an example closer to home, would Marv Levy be considered a genius HOFer if he did not have several HOFers on his roster? His performance before 1987 and after 1996 would suggest otherwise.

Not sure I know what you mean with "conflate" in this context... but the bigger vocabulary problem is with calling the Dolphins a "perennial" contender. They made the playoffs in 2008, and faded and missed them in 2009. They have many questions hanging over them. The Bills have plenty of problems. The point with discussing the BPLoDR is that hoping to be turned around permanently by a big-name coach can be fool's gold. Both are legitimate points of discussion.

You have just cited what I like to call the Bill Parcells Law of Diminishing Returns (BPLoDR for short). It can be joined with the Jimmy Johnson Corollary, which states that it is easier to look like a genius with Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith than with Damon Huard and, well, nobody.

Yes... and they signed Jim Kelly to the richest contract in NFL history at the time... But such facts will not get in the way of the knee-jerk, idiotic, Ralph bashing, especially from people whose historical sense stretches all the way back to last season.

Some guys just focus way too much on wobbly balls. Not that there is anything wrong with that....

You make several good points, but there is a big misconception at the top that is common to so many of these discussions, and that is that athletics "create a financial windfall for the universities." It is not true that college athletics make big money for their schools. They make big money for the athletic programs, which in virtually all cases manage to spend it all on themselves. The amounts that reach the school as a whole are a minor fraction. One can make the argument that athletic success encourages alumni giving, but that is at best indirect. Big time athletics are a cancer on the US university system. They should be cut away.

You just described the process of selling bonds. I could be persuaded it was a good idea, but of course that is exactly how localities finance stadiums....

The rookie mistake was throwing an INT in the end zone before halftime when the Bills had the ball inside the 10... The fumble was just the product of holding the ball too long.

Ah, a Yankee fan, with all the charm and humility the species usually offers. No, by "down period" I mean years in which the Yanks won no World Series Championships.

Mattingly was unfortunate to have starred during one of the Yanks' few down periods, the two decades between 1978 and 1996...

Yes, because we are hoping for help from a fifth-round pick. We are billsfanone!

As my mom would say, "as long as you feel guilty, it is all right." No harm done... carry on, Bills brother!

Anyone who blithely says that they want to see the SB in bad weather should be forced to watch the tape of Super Bowl IX, played in a steady cold rain in Tulane Stadium in New Orleans. It is on YouTube.

Yes, unless there was a divisional tie, as in 1963, when the Bills played and lost a playoff to the Pats.

Excellent points here and on the NYC/WNY issue, but the respectful slow clap is reserved for that final sentence. Such a combination of childhood memory, WNY inside joking and implied double entendre is as precious as it is rare. Well played.

Nice research, Jack! I wonder whether the reason so many "east" teams play outside of the home city is because they are based in older cities with less room? Dallas does not quite fit there, but the others do...

No, he did not fumble in the first half. He threw an INT in the end zone, which he did on many occasions when the defense did not let him run around and he was unable to see the field properly. I remember the Jags game too; it is the exception. There was much blame to go around in the Dolphins playoff, but DF carries a big share of it. Why his fans refuse to see that is beyond me. I wanted him to succeed when he played for the team I pull for, but am not blind to his myriad faults.

OK... let's remember that Flutie also turned the ball over inside the 10 at the end of the first half of the same game. Can we remember that, please? For all his talent, he was historically weak the closer you got to the goal line, because a smaller field worked against him.

Chris makes an excellent point, and I would agree. At the same time, the discussion about the Bills moving to NF always leads to a couple of repeated themes that drive me up the wall because they always lead to dead ends. 1. The whole name thing. How many NFL teams with cities in their names actually play in stadia within their city limits? Many, but by no means not all. The Bills have not played "in Buffalo" since 1973. Some members of the Erie County Legislature actually proposed changing the name to "Erie County Bills" when Rich opened, to reflect the county's financial contribution. Such a proposal was treated with all the respect it deserved... So there is no need whatsoever to discuss changing their name if the stadium moves from one town outside of Buffalo to another, especially in an era where economic decline has encouraged greater regional thinking. (If they moved into Toronto, that is another issue....) 2. The economic problem. As a native of Niagara Falls, NY, who grew up in a time when local identities were so well-established (and in which NFNY was not the hollowed out post-industrial shell that it has become) that Rich Stadium seemed quite far away, I find the thought of the Bills playing within walking distance of my mother's house to be a real treat. But the same economic factors that threaten the Bills' continued presence in WNY in general exist in spades in NF. The county is smaller and poorer, the state does not have the money, and there is no financial angel of a huge corporation to pony up the necessary dough. Casinos are a losing bet for local economic recovery as they divide and re-divide a shrinking pie. And besides, the NFL is not the WNBA; they are not going to allow gambling organizations to own franchises or stadia any time soon. My point is not to be overly gloomy, but I really do not see it. Promo offers a good example of Patriot Place as an ideal stadium complex, but Kraft was able to get that money together from private businesses, and built in a largely undeveloped suburban/rural location. Rather more like Orchard Park, actually. I would love to see more interest in urban development, but that would require both huge sums and a kind of social vision that is all too rare these days.