PBF81

Completely agree. That's why Harris/Warren have a significant advantage like that. I mean look at what New England did to us that one year with the snow when they threw the ball what, two or three times maybe, all game. Still, we have options. But what we don't have is a RB that can play effectively in those conditions pending Fournette. See my recent posts above. There are many questions heading into this game, among which are whether or not our D is once again going to play not to lose. Our offensive production is down under Brady, contrary to popular opinion. So the D will have to step up. Either way, there's no reason why the Steelers should outscore us in Buffalo. The other thing that's evident, is that the Steelers are playing their best football since Roethlisburger was their QB, under Rudolph. Whether that last remains to be seen. Let's hope that the weather's on the positive side, not all that bad, just cold, and that we win this one. GO BILLS!!!

Well, OK, but why should a head coach have to babysit an OC then? it seems that a competent OC, even on a team with a defensive type head coach, would be doing much better with Allen & Co. Wouldn't it seem to hinge on how competent that OC actually is? And frankly, how much direction and guidance apart from constructing a playbook to play to our strengths is actually needed with Allen? Doesn't seem like much. Look at Daboll's rankings as an OC before coming here and being handed Allen. They suck. They're awful. So why did McD hire him? Then Dorsey, whom I said was mystery meat back then and was chided. He was mystery meat and so is Brady. But the fact is that neither had any body of work or experience, so at best it's a die roll. As I've often opined, Dorsey ran the offense as if he was running it vicariously in attempting to relive his prolific days as a QB at U. Miami. The evidence supports that. Brady may end up being the next great OC, who knows, but right now it's not trending in that direction. It's trending oppositely despite overly positive narratives. And then there's this "complimentary football" cliche nonsense, that for us anyway appears to be the offense supporting the defense. But what if our D collapses again and goes into fear mode and play not to lose mode in the playoffs? Isn't that why we've lost our later round playoff games to any team seeded better than 5th? It seems to be. We have Josh Allen! The team should be bending over backwards to protect him and get him receiving options, something that they haven't even significantly approached doing until this past offseason, McD's sixth. Meanwhile, the incessant crying over not having adequate WRs ... Is it not possible that McD refuses to hire a highly competent OC because he realizes that if the offense then outshines the defense, and yet we continue to fail to progress into the later rounds of the playoffs, that there's a chance he would get fired and replaced by that OC? There's obviously a chance of that, if we had such an OC. But none of the guys he's selected are that good. How many seasons should Brady be given to find out there? Meanwhile, Allen, as you reasonably said, or at least implied, is "struggling with his mental state." Why wouldn't he be. What is unreasonable is expecting consistency from season to season under those circumstances. What he's having to go through, all because McD is a "defensive minded coach," isn't reasonable. It's also holding the team back. We've averaged the fewest PPG that we have over the past three seasons. It's been the lowest under Brady. Anyone can argue as they may, but that's a fact, and that's even with those two explosive games against the Jets and Dallas, and Philly even to kick things off for him. We've averaged 24.6 offensive PPG under him. Before this season began, I was thinking that we may hit 34 PPG which was actually supported by Allen's statements of what he was expecting from himself and the offense in some non-official interview somewhere. He estimated over 5,000 passing yards for himself, the strongest-armed QB in the league. Is that unreasonable? Hardly. Yet, he's averaging 244 passing YPG under Brady, a 17-game season pace of 4,148 passing yards and 1.4 passing TDs. That would have placed him at 8th between Love and Stroud for yards, and 11th tied with Stafford and Jackson for passing TDs, and one behind Carr and one ahead of Stroud, and the only one of them that played all 17 games was Carr. So it's not just me. At the end of the day it's on this coaching staff, presumably led by McD, but obviously it won't be if things don't go our way, to make whatever adjustments we need to make for this game to beat the Steelers. If we can't, expect more illogical changes and scapegoating and avoidance of the real issue(s), and what, yet another OC for Allen in as many years going into his fourth season. Yeah, that would be great for his development. If it goes right, great. We'll all be happy. But going right means a first. Will we see a first under McD in his 7th season? Let's hope so. GO BILLS!!!

Speaking for only myself, that's not how I'm looking at it. I'm looking at it from the angle that the Steelers are better suited to run in siht weather. For starters, remove Allen's rushing yards from those. Not sure we need to turn him into a RB in that slop either. But let's compare the primary ball carriers for both teams. Cook, who has 1,122 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs. Najee Harris, who has 1,035 and 8 rushing TDs. Jaylen Warren, who has 784 yards and 4 rushing TDs, in 0 starts. If there's a false narrative, it's that for some strange reason Cook's rushing game is flourishing under Brady. It isn't. Looking at merely the other six games besides that career-best outlier of the Dallas game, anomalous to be sure, Cook's posted the following rushing games: 17 for 73 16 for 43 10 for 58 20 for 70 16 for 48 13 for 36 That's a combined 92 for 328, and 3.6 YPC. Also, 0 rushing TDs. So yeah, if Allen is going to contribute to all of the goal-line carries and TDs, sure, our rushing game may be better. Not sure that's where we need to have Allen however, and the fact that the team is still seemingly option-less at the goal line should be disturbing after seven seasons like that. Furthermore, look at Cook's last few games. He's averaged 3.1 YPC. His next three best rushing games besides the Dallas game were all under Dorsey, not Brady. Just sayin' there, for purposes of squelching a false narrative. 7 of our rushing TDs under Brady not including that Dallas game, were by Allen. I thought we were trying to protect Allen more. Scrambling and running in the open field is a whole lot different than running into a pile on a regular basis, but more disturbing is that the team cannot seem to find a way to do it w/o rushing Allen. Either way, that trend is not a positive one, neither is our offensive scoring trend of fewer than 20 PPG over the past three games, not exactly against the league's elite defenses either. Yeah yeah, dropped passes, etc., we get it, but we've been crying about those for years. In fact, it'll be quite interesting how the team plays without Davis if he can't go. I'm curious what the lamenting will be about then. Meanwhile, Harris posted his two best and very good games, and three of his top-five on the season, in the past two and three weeks respectively with Rudolph at QB. 3 rushing TDs in the last two games and as a team, their 2nd and 3rd best rushing games on the season the last two games. So what this seemingly comes down to is Allen running the ball for us near the goal line, Cook doing it in the open field where he's not been good except for one game under Brady, and two RBs that are hot as a tandem and are legitimate 3-down backs fully capable and if not even suited to playing the kind of football that will require less stable footing in the open field. I hope we gear up right, as I recall, in last season's playoffs I think it was, the team stated that they didn't outfit the players with the proper cleats, ... for a home game. So we'll see. But if this comes down to an inability to throw the ball, much as that New England game a number of years ago where they threw what, two, three passes or something like that all game, it's a stretch to say that conditions like that favor us. That's also not to say that you have to avoid passing, but in high winds the likelihood of TOs increases significantly. We'll see. But this love for Brady in defense of McD is blurring a lot of peoples' objectivity. In fact, we're doing the exact opposite that we said we should be doing to keep Allen healthy, not only for the season, but for many seasons. He already has a shoulder injury. Doing all of the goal-line rushing is insanity over the long haul. Open field, yes, let him run and scramble, but dang if we, after six seasons, can't find a decent goal line RB.

First game, no?

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/orchard-park/14127/daily-weather-forecast/2128285

Allow me to ask as well, why is it that you think that there's a "churn" at OC that is preventing the optimization of the "key player" on the team? Even Daboll's credentials coming here were incredibly questionable. I'm not sure anything can be trusted for lake effect snow events. Remember that monster storm we had what, six or seven years ago maybe. The computer weather models suck these days anyway.

Congrats!! Any relationship to Mike Stojanovich from the Rochester Lancers in the '70s?

The forecast that I just looked at says this; Lake-effect snow and intense squalls, accumulating an additional 6-10 inches; windy and colder High 24, Windchill -1, 30 mph winds We're 72 hours from game time

Roger Brady could easily add plays however. It's ridiculous to think that he can't. Let's not forget however that he's novice, inexperienced, and OJT. Think about all that was said that was positive about Dorsey when he replaced Daboll. And that is no minor reference to the oft-repeated notion that Allen wanted him as OC. But the point is that people are saying that the offense has improved, whatever the circumstances, when the opposite is the case. They're/we're also saying that the defense has improved, and while it has not gotten worse, that also isn't true. How long are false and/or flimsy narratives going to carry McD's water. I'm not seeing a ton of evidence that the issues you cited are gone despite unsubstantiated narratives simply claiming that they are. As to "managing the QB's (Allen's) mental state, you won't find a bigger critic than me given that he's had three different OCs in as many seasons and may have a fourth next season as well. Whose fault is that? Obviously not McD's, he's only the head coach. It can't be, the narratives don't support that. The masses will figure it out at some point. In the meantime, more damage to the QB's mental state, including no consistency from season to season, will occur. Meanwhile, that QB, with nothing but his physical and mental talents individually carries this team. The impact of this game is much bigger than people realize. BTW, Davis may not play. According to most, his absence should benefit the team. That should be interesting, the fallout from that too.

Where would this team be without Allen.

I understand that, but keep in mind that narratives often if not typically form based largely upon pop-opinion and without any objective basis. At the end of the day games are still won by scoring points and preventing points. Our offense has scored fewer per game and our D has allowed about the same, and that including against a third-rate Charger offense, the horrible Pats, the Jets, a Chiefs team without its second best skill position player on offense, and a Miami team minus two of its three top offensive skill position players. As mentioned, Dallas and Philly were a wash in results. So it's hardly a positive. You say that the running game has looked better. What do you mean by that? What's your "viewing" baseline? That's what I have trouble with, this "eye test" stuff that ignores any data. I look at it like this. If we went to work and simply said "I feel great, better than ever." But we didn't perform whatever it is that we do better, but argued that we were performing better than we ever have, how is that possible? Make sense? Here's the thing: Pitt likely won't be a slumping Dallas team with road issues; They're not playing a QB like Shtick, Jones, or Wilson. They're not missing their starting skill position players on offense. Their current QB is playing better than anyone they've had since Roeth. That could be temporary from a "newness" of sorts, but untio that proves to be the case. They're also not missing their top WR, or any of them for that matter. So it's really going to be a different team than most that we've faced since Brady was installed as the OC, on either side.

Well yeah, if it's whiteout conditions. On the flip side, good opportunities to lose sight of runners. LOL

Well yeah, the regular season hasn't been the problem for sure. No one has complained about our division wins or regular season record. But our postseason performance hasn't even approached matching that, in any way, shape, or form. Having said that we get first round (aka WC Round) wins is one thing, but our D has still underachieved in those games. Last season vs. Miami (Thompson) for example put up their season offensive average plus a defensive TD with Skylar Thompson at the helm, including a 75-yard drive late in the 3rd to pull within a FG. In '20 we allowed the Colts with Rivers to log their most offensive yards all season and within four points of their season average. They nearly beat us. In '19 and '17 we lost our WC games. The only game that our D played well was vs. NE featuring Jones as a rookie, but we also got plenty of help from Allen and the offense putting the game away by the half with Allen having a career game. So yeah, while we do get first round wins, it's hardly been because of our defense playing even average. Completely with you there. There's a lot of narrative hype re: Brady that simply isn't true. Cook isn't resurgent, in fact, other than for the Dallas game he's playing worse than he ever has over any stretch. Diggs' numbers have all but been halved and he's got one receiving TD under Brady vs. 7 under Dorsey. Allen's averaging 1.4 passing TDs/game, down from 2.1 under Dorsey. That's not to say that Dorsey was good, he wasn't. It is to say that Brady's no better if not worse. Our offense has averaged a pathetic 19.3 PPG over the past three games, none of which were against above-average defenses. Remember, we needed a defensive TD to beat the Pats, otherwise they'd have swept us. We also didn't play well against the Chargers with their crap D and Bosa out, Shtick at QB and a bunch of third-rate WRs with Allen out too. Yeah, be good to find out what happens. The more research I've done however the more concerned I've gotten. I originally thought this would be a blowout, now I'm not so sure. If we play, offensively the way we have over the past three weeks we'll be lucky to win. I don't see 20 points winning this game for us. We're not playing Zappe, Stick, or a half-depleted Miami offense, we're playing one that's averaged 27 PPG and with a QB that's playing well above-average on a team with a very good coach. We are playing a team that's playing a helluva lot better football now they have the rest of the season prior to Rudolph starting. That will get them up for the game. Also, and in fairness, we're talking about a QB that's never been given a reasonable chance to start for more than 6 games completed, now he has, and he's got a 120.3 Rating over those three games. We are at home, so that helps. Having said that, we are still the better team, simply not playing like it recently. Hopefully we won't be arguing the reasons for it following the game.

Let's address this if it happens. Seriously though, I wouldn't expect any major changes even if we do lose. Pegula seems to be taking the path of least resistance until the Stadium is up. Why should he care about winning when he doesn't have to. So far any changes have been window-dressing changes. If we can't win this game, McD would be 4-6 in the playoffs with three Wild-Card Round wins over teams seeded 7th (twice) and 6th, and a single divisional win vs. another 5th seed. All that with Josh Allen as his QB. The intangibles appear to mean more to many than the tangibles and actual outcomes. Expect more of the same with a continued revolving-door of OCs and scapegoat firings. McD is like a cat with 9 lives. In the meantime, GO BILLS!!! Let's win this game and hope for KC at home to blow them out too!

Our focus should first and foremost be to get an OC that is capable of turning Allen into all that he can be. This ongoing scoring regression from 31.3 PPG in '20, to 28.4 PPG in '21 & '22, to 26.5 PPG this season, and 26.0 PPG under Brady ain't cuttin' it. Especially since we've had our best OL and finally a bona fide receiving TE in addition to other WRs that have been here for several seasons. Including Diggs whose production has plummeted since Brady took the reigns. We all know the arguments, but the reality is that a truly good OC should be able to get more than that and have all cylinders, not simply the "complimentary football" (aka Support the D) cylinders firing. What's next, a drop to 25 PPG next season with what is likely to be a tougher schedule.

He's done better than I expected as well, however, we've only played three teams among the top-13 scoring teams. 10 of the 17 games we've played have featured teams ranked 19th or worse, again, including four games against the 29th, 30th, and 31st scoring teams. Of those three teams, we played well vs. Miami but we own them. Dallas we played well but Philly loaded up on us. So outside the division 50/50. Once again, our issues have not been the regular season. They've been the playoffs where we cannot seem to be teams seeded better than 5th or at home. So this playoffs will be a defining playoffs. Of our last 7 games while Brady's been the OC, where our scoring has been below our season average, having played New England with Zappe, the Chargers with Shtick, the Jets with Wilson, or even the Chiefs w/o Pacheco and no WRs worthy of note except for a developing rookie, tough shouldn't really be a feather in our cap. Pittsburgh's not even a top offense, they rank 28th in scoring although they have been playing better under Rudolph, to the tune of over 9 points better than their season average on the whole, despite having played two Ds ranked 21st and 25th in those three games. They have logged a bunch of very long TD drives however. We're all hoping for a win, but deep down most of us realize that we haven't been stellar in the playoffs under McD. This is a fantastic opportunity for him to alter that perspective and existing paradigm and associated narrative.

Who cares about the spread, that a pop-culture money thing that's based upon perceptions, which are often rooted in extreme superficialities. That's why Vegas makes money hand over fist. Has nothing to do with reality. Someone good at wagering can figure out where the "deals" are. Honestly, much depends upon Allen, and since his play is such a wild-card in the generic sense of the word, it's difficult to know what to expect. I'll go ahead and say the quiet part out loud here, but if anything, our handicap in the playoffs has been McD & Co. We're a better team. If they cannot figure out how to tweak that in homefield advantage, with rabid fans, then that's on them. He has yet to beat a 4th or better seed in the playoffs. Hopefully this is the season where he shatters that paradigm. If not, LOL, this place is going to be a colossal hoot for months. Coaching for this game is key and it seemingly favors Tomlin. ... at least until further notice.

We seem to be hit-n-miss. We've played against almost none of the league's top-10 RBs. Swift (5th) posted his fourth best game of the season against us. Mixon (8th) we shut down. Mostert (10th) we shut down in the one game early in the season, but Achane had a great game in his place. Etienne (11th) had his best game of the season against us as did Jax otherwise. Barkley (16th) had his second best yardage game of the season against us. Harris is 7th and the Steelers rank 13th in Rushing. The only teams we've played among the top-12 in rushing are Miami (6th) and the Eagles (8th). 10 of the 17 games we've played have been against teams ranking 22nd or worse in rushing including the three worst. (30th, 31st, and 32nd) 7 of 17 are among teams ranking in the bottom quartile. FWIW Without running an analysis, we seem to give up big plays rushing. We seem to be focused on our pass rush and TFLs, so once a play breaks down defensively, we seem to be exposed at the second level so to speak. If true, that's why much of this game rests upon McD's shoulders.

Cook for us and Warren for Pitt both have ball security issues. Then of course Allen's INTs. Given the likelihood of lots of running and therefore longer drives and therefore fewer drives, this game can easily come down to whichever team makes the fewest TOs. The waiting is the hardest part.

To start, it's not simply Bernard. It's the team. We currently rank 28th in Yards-per-Carry allowed. That doesn't match up well in this particular situation. We may be fine, obviously. This befalls coaching however. Our starting DL is healthy again, we're not missing any great run defenders in the front-7 because of injury. Who knows, we'll find out in a few days.

Is he starting in the playoffs?

Well, is quite possible that we are a "flimsy #2 seed." We'll find out on Sunday. The Steelers are in the toughest division in the league with three teams in the playoffs and the fourth only eliminated in week 18. Two of their teams running with backup QBs. The Steelers are a physical, not a finesse, team. They're only one game worse than us with a tougher schedule.

Fun fact: Allen, Mayfield, Jackson, & Rudolph were all drafted in 2018 and are all in the playoffs.

Most seem to be looking at it objectively, hoping for the best, ready to cheer their brains out, hoping that "the stars align" while hoping for fandemonium in Buffalo throughout the month of February. 😎

Steelers have a lot more options than the Ravens had.