PBF81

Where would this team be without Allen.

I understand that, but keep in mind that narratives often if not typically form based largely upon pop-opinion and without any objective basis. At the end of the day games are still won by scoring points and preventing points. Our offense has scored fewer per game and our D has allowed about the same, and that including against a third-rate Charger offense, the horrible Pats, the Jets, a Chiefs team without its second best skill position player on offense, and a Miami team minus two of its three top offensive skill position players. As mentioned, Dallas and Philly were a wash in results. So it's hardly a positive. You say that the running game has looked better. What do you mean by that? What's your "viewing" baseline? That's what I have trouble with, this "eye test" stuff that ignores any data. I look at it like this. If we went to work and simply said "I feel great, better than ever." But we didn't perform whatever it is that we do better, but argued that we were performing better than we ever have, how is that possible? Make sense? Here's the thing: Pitt likely won't be a slumping Dallas team with road issues; They're not playing a QB like Shtick, Jones, or Wilson. They're not missing their starting skill position players on offense. Their current QB is playing better than anyone they've had since Roeth. That could be temporary from a "newness" of sorts, but untio that proves to be the case. They're also not missing their top WR, or any of them for that matter. So it's really going to be a different team than most that we've faced since Brady was installed as the OC, on either side.

Well yeah, if it's whiteout conditions. On the flip side, good opportunities to lose sight of runners. LOL

Well yeah, the regular season hasn't been the problem for sure. No one has complained about our division wins or regular season record. But our postseason performance hasn't even approached matching that, in any way, shape, or form. Having said that we get first round (aka WC Round) wins is one thing, but our D has still underachieved in those games. Last season vs. Miami (Thompson) for example put up their season offensive average plus a defensive TD with Skylar Thompson at the helm, including a 75-yard drive late in the 3rd to pull within a FG. In '20 we allowed the Colts with Rivers to log their most offensive yards all season and within four points of their season average. They nearly beat us. In '19 and '17 we lost our WC games. The only game that our D played well was vs. NE featuring Jones as a rookie, but we also got plenty of help from Allen and the offense putting the game away by the half with Allen having a career game. So yeah, while we do get first round wins, it's hardly been because of our defense playing even average. Completely with you there. There's a lot of narrative hype re: Brady that simply isn't true. Cook isn't resurgent, in fact, other than for the Dallas game he's playing worse than he ever has over any stretch. Diggs' numbers have all but been halved and he's got one receiving TD under Brady vs. 7 under Dorsey. Allen's averaging 1.4 passing TDs/game, down from 2.1 under Dorsey. That's not to say that Dorsey was good, he wasn't. It is to say that Brady's no better if not worse. Our offense has averaged a pathetic 19.3 PPG over the past three games, none of which were against above-average defenses. Remember, we needed a defensive TD to beat the Pats, otherwise they'd have swept us. We also didn't play well against the Chargers with their crap D and Bosa out, Shtick at QB and a bunch of third-rate WRs with Allen out too. Yeah, be good to find out what happens. The more research I've done however the more concerned I've gotten. I originally thought this would be a blowout, now I'm not so sure. If we play, offensively the way we have over the past three weeks we'll be lucky to win. I don't see 20 points winning this game for us. We're not playing Zappe, Stick, or a half-depleted Miami offense, we're playing one that's averaged 27 PPG and with a QB that's playing well above-average on a team with a very good coach. We are playing a team that's playing a helluva lot better football now they have the rest of the season prior to Rudolph starting. That will get them up for the game. Also, and in fairness, we're talking about a QB that's never been given a reasonable chance to start for more than 6 games completed, now he has, and he's got a 120.3 Rating over those three games. We are at home, so that helps. Having said that, we are still the better team, simply not playing like it recently. Hopefully we won't be arguing the reasons for it following the game.

Let's address this if it happens. Seriously though, I wouldn't expect any major changes even if we do lose. Pegula seems to be taking the path of least resistance until the Stadium is up. Why should he care about winning when he doesn't have to. So far any changes have been window-dressing changes. If we can't win this game, McD would be 4-6 in the playoffs with three Wild-Card Round wins over teams seeded 7th (twice) and 6th, and a single divisional win vs. another 5th seed. All that with Josh Allen as his QB. The intangibles appear to mean more to many than the tangibles and actual outcomes. Expect more of the same with a continued revolving-door of OCs and scapegoat firings. McD is like a cat with 9 lives. In the meantime, GO BILLS!!! Let's win this game and hope for KC at home to blow them out too!

Our focus should first and foremost be to get an OC that is capable of turning Allen into all that he can be. This ongoing scoring regression from 31.3 PPG in '20, to 28.4 PPG in '21 & '22, to 26.5 PPG this season, and 26.0 PPG under Brady ain't cuttin' it. Especially since we've had our best OL and finally a bona fide receiving TE in addition to other WRs that have been here for several seasons. Including Diggs whose production has plummeted since Brady took the reigns. We all know the arguments, but the reality is that a truly good OC should be able to get more than that and have all cylinders, not simply the "complimentary football" (aka Support the D) cylinders firing. What's next, a drop to 25 PPG next season with what is likely to be a tougher schedule.

He's done better than I expected as well, however, we've only played three teams among the top-13 scoring teams. 10 of the 17 games we've played have featured teams ranked 19th or worse, again, including four games against the 29th, 30th, and 31st scoring teams. Of those three teams, we played well vs. Miami but we own them. Dallas we played well but Philly loaded up on us. So outside the division 50/50. Once again, our issues have not been the regular season. They've been the playoffs where we cannot seem to be teams seeded better than 5th or at home. So this playoffs will be a defining playoffs. Of our last 7 games while Brady's been the OC, where our scoring has been below our season average, having played New England with Zappe, the Chargers with Shtick, the Jets with Wilson, or even the Chiefs w/o Pacheco and no WRs worthy of note except for a developing rookie, tough shouldn't really be a feather in our cap. Pittsburgh's not even a top offense, they rank 28th in scoring although they have been playing better under Rudolph, to the tune of over 9 points better than their season average on the whole, despite having played two Ds ranked 21st and 25th in those three games. They have logged a bunch of very long TD drives however. We're all hoping for a win, but deep down most of us realize that we haven't been stellar in the playoffs under McD. This is a fantastic opportunity for him to alter that perspective and existing paradigm and associated narrative.

Who cares about the spread, that a pop-culture money thing that's based upon perceptions, which are often rooted in extreme superficialities. That's why Vegas makes money hand over fist. Has nothing to do with reality. Someone good at wagering can figure out where the "deals" are. Honestly, much depends upon Allen, and since his play is such a wild-card in the generic sense of the word, it's difficult to know what to expect. I'll go ahead and say the quiet part out loud here, but if anything, our handicap in the playoffs has been McD & Co. We're a better team. If they cannot figure out how to tweak that in homefield advantage, with rabid fans, then that's on them. He has yet to beat a 4th or better seed in the playoffs. Hopefully this is the season where he shatters that paradigm. If not, LOL, this place is going to be a colossal hoot for months. Coaching for this game is key and it seemingly favors Tomlin. ... at least until further notice.

We seem to be hit-n-miss. We've played against almost none of the league's top-10 RBs. Swift (5th) posted his fourth best game of the season against us. Mixon (8th) we shut down. Mostert (10th) we shut down in the one game early in the season, but Achane had a great game in his place. Etienne (11th) had his best game of the season against us as did Jax otherwise. Barkley (16th) had his second best yardage game of the season against us. Harris is 7th and the Steelers rank 13th in Rushing. The only teams we've played among the top-12 in rushing are Miami (6th) and the Eagles (8th). 10 of the 17 games we've played have been against teams ranking 22nd or worse in rushing including the three worst. (30th, 31st, and 32nd) 7 of 17 are among teams ranking in the bottom quartile. FWIW Without running an analysis, we seem to give up big plays rushing. We seem to be focused on our pass rush and TFLs, so once a play breaks down defensively, we seem to be exposed at the second level so to speak. If true, that's why much of this game rests upon McD's shoulders.

Cook for us and Warren for Pitt both have ball security issues. Then of course Allen's INTs. Given the likelihood of lots of running and therefore longer drives and therefore fewer drives, this game can easily come down to whichever team makes the fewest TOs. The waiting is the hardest part.

To start, it's not simply Bernard. It's the team. We currently rank 28th in Yards-per-Carry allowed. That doesn't match up well in this particular situation. We may be fine, obviously. This befalls coaching however. Our starting DL is healthy again, we're not missing any great run defenders in the front-7 because of injury. Who knows, we'll find out in a few days.

Is he starting in the playoffs?

Well, is quite possible that we are a "flimsy #2 seed." We'll find out on Sunday. The Steelers are in the toughest division in the league with three teams in the playoffs and the fourth only eliminated in week 18. Two of their teams running with backup QBs. The Steelers are a physical, not a finesse, team. They're only one game worse than us with a tougher schedule.

Fun fact: Allen, Mayfield, Jackson, & Rudolph were all drafted in 2018 and are all in the playoffs.

Most seem to be looking at it objectively, hoping for the best, ready to cheer their brains out, hoping that "the stars align" while hoping for fandemonium in Buffalo throughout the month of February. 😎

Steelers have a lot more options than the Ravens had.

Let's hope not. Baltimore had 150 yards rushing in that game, we had 32. Don't see that being a winning formula on Sunday. Pittsburgh also has much better skill position players than the Ravens had then. Pittsburgh may be a better team than most realize. They're 10-7 in a battle hardened division.

We keep hearing about what s monster Cook's been under Brady. Shouldn't even be a problem then. Weather schmeather, we're a better team playing at home. Find a way to win. If not, well, this place will be a real hoot with the monster pendulum swing that would take place.

Allen's on his third OC in as many seasons, and people wonder why he's not playing perfectly. For a moment I thought that Daboll had berated one of his assistant coaches for having gotten a gift from his unit.

As stated, there's zero excuse for not winning.

FWIW, the Steelers are 5-1 when they rush for more than 150 yards. We are 0-3 when we allow more than 150. It's beyond likely that it comes down to that given the weather. The problem for us is that our defense is not built to stop the run. We rank 28th in yards-per-attempt allowed.

We're 0-4 in road playoff games. Of the four playoff games we've won, three are Wild-Card games, all four home games. Of those three games, two were against marginal playoff teams to begin with, all three at home. 10-7 New England with Mac Jones, Damien Harris, and Jakobi Meyers as their three top skill-position players, and 9-8 Miami with Skylar Thompson playing QB and JAG Jeff Wilson as a RB. The other was against Indy, which outplayed us here at home with Rivers at QB and the rookie WR Pittman as their only decent WR. Miami was the 7th Seed, New England the 6th Seed, and Indy also the 7th Seed. The only solid playoff game we've played has been against Baltimore a week after that Indy game where we won 17-3, but where Baltimore, apart from Jackson and Andrews (TE) featured a bunch of mediocre all but JAG skill position players. The Ravens were the 5th Seed. To date we've never beaten a 1st thru 4th Seeded team. We have our work cut out for us this playoffs. We're all hoping for a Super Bowl run, but our playoff history is somewhat sordid. Beating Pitt at home and the winner of the the KC/Miami game also at home are musts for this playoffs to be a success for us, at minimum. Then if Baltimore gets upset, so would be a home game AFC CG win.

As well, I have no doubt, but if we lose either home game, it's quite reasonable that there will be a significant swing in sentiment like that. How often can a team with Allen at QB fail to advance beyond the D Round. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Other than the Dallas game, Cook hasn't had a significant rushing game and has averaged an incredibly pedestrian 3.6 YPC So sure, if our Dallas offense shows up, agreed. If not, then not necessarily.

Allen hasn't gone on a tear in five games except for the 2nd half last week. We're the better team on Sunday no matter what the weather, and they have them same obstacles with a worse QB, by far, so there's zero excuse for not winning.